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Reuters survey: The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations for December remain solid, but there is still controversy over the end of the tightening cycle

A Reuters survey shows that about 55% of the economists surveyed, or 56 out of 101, expect that the interest rate hike in December will mark the end of the current tightening cycle, a figure that is basically unchanged from last month.However, 45 economists still expect that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least two more times, including more than half of the surveyed primary dealers, which is consistent with the expectations reflected in market pricing, and believe that the risks to the inflation outlook have not changed since the U.S. midterm elections. Changes in the political landscape are unlikely to quickly alleviate inflationary pressures.Despite market hopes that the nearly 9-month-long Middle East conflict could be resolved, leading to a drop of over 22% in crude oil futures prices from the late October peak, inflationary pressures still persist. A strong labor market, resilient economic growth, and inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for nearly six years all indicate that further tightening of monetary policy is still necessary.Wells Fargo Chief Economist Tom Porcelli stated, "The Federal Reserve's decision-making depends on the upcoming inflation data, which will prompt it to raise rates again. In fact, the Federal Reserve has every reason to raise rates at the October meeting."

Reuters: Trump Media investors may have lost over $2.2 billion, and Trump's stake is still valued at $460 million

According to a report by Reuters, based on company filings and court records, external investors in Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) have collectively lost over $2.2 billion. This estimate compares the issuance and sale prices of various batches of shares with the current price, adjusting for the impact of stock buybacks, and uses a market value accounting approach rather than tallying the realized trading losses of each investor. Trump Media disputes this calculation method, claiming it distorts facts, market dynamics, and the company's public documents, but did not specify the flaws in the calculation method. The company's General Counsel, Scott Glabe, stated that millions of shares are traded daily in the public market, making it impossible to know whether each seller ultimately made a profit or a loss.Reuters reported that the method was reviewed by three finance professors and is considered a standard way to assess investment gains and losses. Trump holds 114.75 million shares of Trump Media, valued at approximately $460 million. These shares were acquired when the company completed its SPAC merger with Digital World Acquisition in 2024, without cash payment. The value of this holding once exceeded $6 billion when the stock price was near its peak. Operationally, Trump Media's annual revenue has remained around $4 million over the past three years, with the social media business not yet showing significant growth, and the decline in the value of cryptocurrency investments has also put pressure on the company.Regulatory documents show that the company invested over $200 million to build the Truth Social streaming service, but this service generated only about $630,000 in revenue from its launch in August 2024 until the end of June 2026. Additionally, the timing of the company's Bitcoin purchases was close to the price peak, followed by a significant decline. Reuters interviewed more than a dozen Trump Media shareholders. One investor, who invested 20% of their personal net worth in the stock, provided account data showing an investment loss of 88.5%. Since the midterm elections, the company's stock price has fallen a cumulative 32%. Trump Media emphasized that the company has established a strong balance sheet and is focused on creating shareholder value, including advancing the proposed merger with fusion company TAE Technologies.

first_img Reuters: U.S. export restrictions on China hinder SK Hynix's factory construction in New York

According to a report by Reuters, South Korean chip manufacturer SK Hynix plans to raise funds for a new memory chip factory in New York by expanding production in China, but the necessary U.S. export licenses for equipment have not yet been approved, hindering its investment plans in the U.S. The company is applying for U.S. export licenses to acquire equipment for its Dalian factory, believing that increasing the factory's output and developing more advanced NAND chip manufacturing technology will help maintain competitiveness, generate revenue, and support the U.S. factory plan.Two informed sources said that SK Hynix's subsidiary Solidigm plans to invest about $45 billion to build two NAND flash memory factories in Marcy, New York, with a potential long-term investment of around $100 billion. Negotiations are ongoing, and whether the Dalian factory expansion plan can be approved is key to the New York factory plan. Since the end of August, Solidigm executives have met with U.S. Department of Commerce officials nearly 10 times, including meetings with Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo and Deputy Secretary Don Graves.Graves insisted last week that the U.S. does not wish to allow more American chip manufacturing equipment to be sent to China for technology upgrades or capacity expansion. The Department of Commerce has not yet formally rejected the license application for exporting equipment to the existing idle cleanroom at the Dalian factory. Solidigm stated that it is exploring options for building NAND flash wafer fabs at potential global locations and has not yet made decisions on any specific action plans. On October 23, SK Hynix stated that Solidigm had previously considered an IPO to assist in funding the construction of U.S. production facilities, but has paused the evaluation of listing options due to recent market conditions and stock price trends.

first_img Thomson Reuters launched its self-developed AI model Thomson-1, based on Alibaba's open-source Qwen

According to Business Insider, Thomson Reuters launched its first self-developed AI model, Thomson-1, on Monday. This model is based on Snowdon and constructed through "re-alignment" of Alibaba's open-source Qwen model. Open-source means anyone can download and modify the model for free. Thomson-1 will take over some tasks previously handled by Anthropic's Claude, but it is not intended to completely replace collaboration with Anthropic and other labs, initially focusing on the company's areas of expertise, starting with document review.This move aims to address the high AI costs brought by models like Claude and OpenAI Codex, and reflects the use of cheaper Chinese open-source AI. CTO Joel Hron stated that the main reason is to better leverage Thomson Reuters' own expertise and control costs. The company expanded its collaboration with Anthropic in May this year for the AI legal assistant CoCounsel, which still primarily relies on Claude. Hron said, "Our main goal is to gradually make Thomson the model that drives more and more capabilities for CoCounsel."Thomson Reuters, in collaboration with a team from Imperial College London, spent months transforming Qwen to build Snowdon and ensured it is "ethically and politically bias-processed and safe to use." Hron pointed out that having a proprietary model allows for development based on its own intellectual property rather than continuously paying external AI companies, comparing it to renting versus buying a house: renting provides shelter but does not accumulate long-term equity.

hot_img Reuters: Microsoft has closed at least 15 branches in China over the past five years, with AI overseas business becoming a key factor for retention

According to a report by Reuters, influenced by multiple factors such as the tense Sino-U.S. relations, China's push for domestic software alternatives, and U.S. export controls, Microsoft has closed at least 15 branches and joint ventures in China over the past five years, executing a strategic contraction. In 2023, the company internally considered exiting the Chinese market, as some executives believed that "the geopolitical risks outweighed the limited economic returns," but ultimately did not proceed with the exit. Microsoft disclosed in 2024 that its business in China accounted for only about 1.5% of its global revenue.The report states that Microsoft's final decision to remain in China was primarily due to the establishment of a profitable path—providing Azure cloud and AI services to Chinese companies like ByteDance and Shein, helping them operate compliantly in overseas markets. Additionally, the company believes that retaining its business in China remains strategically significant for acquiring engineering talent. However, analysts question the sustainability of this AI business model: the service relies on third-party models like OpenAI, and Chinese companies are increasingly adopting domestic alternatives like Kimi, which offer comparable performance at lower costs.Microsoft's research and development presence in China is also contracting. Its predecessor, Microsoft Research Asia, has successively established new labs in Vancouver, Singapore, and Tokyo. In 2024, the company offered job opportunities to 1,000 top engineers to relocate to the U.S. and three other countries, but only about one-third accepted, with most senior engineers moving to domestic universities and tech companies. A Microsoft spokesperson responded that the company will continue to commit to the Chinese market but did not comment on specific decision details. ByteDance and Shein did not respond to related inquiries.
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