otto

According to CoinDesk, Jurien Timmer, the Global Macro Director at Fidelity, stated that Bitcoin is approaching the bottom support line of its "power law model" constructed based on the complete price history of Bitcoin. This long-term support level is currently around $58,000, while the current price of Bitcoin is approximately $62,700, gradually nearing this area, or may have already entered the "accumulation zone" defined by the model.However, Jurien Timmer did not confirm that the market has bottomed out, but believes that Bitcoin may not experience a rapid rebound immediately. Instead, it is expected to fluctuate around the long-term support line for several months. Short-term capital has previously exited, and the flow of funds has rotated from Bitcoin to gold, and then from gold to the semiconductor sector. Currently, the market's pursuit of hot sectors is still mainly concentrated in the semiconductor field.

Multicoin Capital Managing Partner Tushar Jain stated that the crypto market has bottomed out and entered a turning point, with current market sentiment truly reaching a low. Recent major hacking incidents and other news have not triggered large-scale sell-offs, application adoption rates continue to rise, and prices have become disconnected from fundamentals.He maintains a long-term optimistic view on Solana, believing that SOL is the correct architecture for spot trading and tokenized securities; he is also optimistic about Hyperliquid's leading position in the derivatives space, currently holding significant positions in both. Regarding ZEC, he mentioned that Multicoin has accumulated a considerable proportion of the supply and believes it represents a return to the "crypto-punk" values of the industry, with the potential to enter the top five by market capitalization.In terms of position management, he employs a "three-part method": immediately buying one-third, dollar-cost averaging the second one-third, and keeping the final one-third as flexible funds to respond to major declines. After confirming that no hackers exploited the Zcash code vulnerability incident, the team significantly increased their positions.

Glassnode's latest weekly report points out that Bitcoin has been continuously operating below the real market average and the cost basis of short-term holders for the past five months, remaining in a deep value range. This indicates that while the market bottoming process is progressing, it has not yet been completed.On-chain data shows that long-term holders' realized losses account for 43% of the total realized value, with the recent daily average realized loss peak rising to $280 million, the highest level since December 2022, indicating that selling pressure has not significantly eased.

According to the analyst thechessONCHAIN on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is currently 0.158, with its 100-day exponential moving average at 0.215 and the 30-day exponential moving average at 0.155.On June 2, the 30-day moving average has crossed below the 100-day moving average, indicating a weakening market momentum, but both are currently still above the zero axis.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio has once again reached an extreme negative territory, slightly rebounding after falling below -20. The Sharpe ratio is used to measure the relationship between investment risk and return, with a negative value indicating higher risk relative to current returns, which aligns with Bitcoin's third consecutive quarter of decline (with the latest quarter down 16.1%).Historically, such extremely pessimistic periods often last for several weeks to months and correspond to a new bottom-building phase, followed by a price restart. The analyst stated that the data suggests we are currently approaching this phase, but it is important to note that this observation belongs to a long-term time frame.

According to CoinDesk, against the backdrop of continuous outflows of institutional funds in the United States, Bitcoin whales have accumulated over 270,000 BTC (approximately $16.7 billion) in the past two weeks, forming a clear divergence from the record outflows of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF.Analysis points out that this phase of divergence has historical cyclical characteristics: while institutional funds are withdrawing, long-term holders and whale accounts continue to accumulate, similar to the capital redistribution structure commonly seen at the bottom of previous cycles.On-chain data shows that although the spot premium remains negative, indicating that on-site buying is not strong, large wallets continue to accumulate Bitcoin, and the market is currently in a structural phase of "institutional deleveraging and long-term capital accumulation."

According to CoinDesk, Wall Street investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald has released a report stating that the cryptocurrency market is entering the final stage of the current bear market cycle. Analysts pointed out that as of June 10, Bitcoin has been 252 days since its peak in 2025, with a decline of about 51%. In the previous three market cycles, Bitcoin typically reached its bottom 384 days after peaking; if history repeats itself, this round of decline may bottom out around the end of October. The report cautions that this model is not an accurate timing tool, and macroeconomic, regulatory, and geopolitical risks still exist, but the reflexive nature of the cryptocurrency market suggests that historical cycles may self-reinforce.Cantor suggests that investors shift their focus from speculative activities to networks with the ability to accumulate lasting value, identifying Hyperliquid as a typical case of fee-driven token economics. Bitcoin remains the benchmark currency asset, Ethereum is the dominant collateral layer for on-chain finance, and Solana, Sui, XRP, and Zcash each have differentiated advantages but still need to prove sustainable value. Cantor has also included digital asset treasury companies Forward Industries and Cypherpunk Technologies in its research coverage, giving them a buy rating, with target prices of $7.9 and $0.9, respectively.

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, the current reading of the Bitcoin UTXO profit and loss ratio model has fallen into a historically low range, indicating that the market is undergoing a deeper internal cleanup.However, the analyst emphasizes that this does not mean the bottom has been confirmed— the 365-day moving average needs to decline further to prove that the market's long-term profit structure has been fully reset, rather than just a short-term oversold reaction. Although a brief rebound may occur due to a short squeeze, it should not be seen as a structural recovery signal if the profit and loss ratio fails to sustain its reconstruction.Overall, signs of internal cleanup in BTC are beginning to emerge, but historical patterns suggest that the market may still need to endure more pressure before fully emerging from this bear market.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua posted that the current Bitcoin trend represents the third wave of decline since the peak of 1011. According to volatility theory and cyclical patterns, this may be the final major drop.Yi Lihua pointed out that the main influencing factors for this round of decline include the performance of the U.S. stock market and Strategy, while closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's response to CPI data to see if it will change interest rate cut or hike expectations, which could trigger a continued pullback in the U.S. stock market. Additionally, black swan or explosive events often occur at the tail end of past bear markets, which have not yet appeared and still require ongoing observation.He believes that based on Bitcoin's peak of $126,000, a 60% drop would bring it down to about $51,000, and a 66% drop would bring it down to about $43,000. Regardless of where the final bottom lies, July and August may be the last bottoming area of this cycle and the most noteworthy time window for bottom fishing in the next three years.

According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin unspent transaction output (UTXO) data shows that the proportion of loss transactions to profit transactions in the current market has dropped to the lowest level of this bear market cycle, indicating that investors are entering a clear "surrender" phase.This indicator has previously triggered multiple times at historical cycle bottom areas. The last similar low occurred during the mid-2023 deep phase of the bear market, when the Bitcoin price briefly fell to around $26,000. Analysts believe that such phases usually correspond to extremely low market sentiment, with long-term investors gradually starting to accumulate again.Darkfost pointed out that this is the first time this signal has been triggered since the start of the current correction, indicating that the number of UTXOs sold at a loss is significantly increasing, reflecting a broader sell-off and surrender behavior that has begun. He also added that the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders' Bitcoin is gradually entering negative territory.

Crypto KOL Ansem posted a bullish outlook on the SOL/ETH exchange rate for trading. Ansem stated, "The bottom for Solana has been reached, I was the first to say it! Now everyone is extremely pessimistic about SOL, just like when it dropped to $8 in 2023. I think buying SOL at the current price with a holding period of over 6 months is a good deal."

With the current price of Bitcoin at $59,291 and a 200-day dollar-cost averaging (C200) of $75,821, the Bitcoin Ahr999 "bottom-fishing" indicator is currently at 0.285. The previous low this year was 0.27 on February 6.According to statistics, an Ahr999 below 0.3 is a rare case of extreme undervaluation, mainly occurring during significant market crashes or moments of panic. Historically, there have been the following major instances of falling below 0.3:In November 2011, when the price of Bitcoin was only in single digits and had not yet reached widespread consensus;The bottom of the bear market in 2018 (lowest around 0.24);The "March 16 flash crash" in 2020 (COVID panic);In June 2022, during the ETH liquidation crash and the FTX crash in November, it touched around 0.27 multiple times;In February 2026, it reached 0.27-0.29, close to historical lows.It is reported that this indicator assists Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging users in making investment decisions in conjunction with timing strategies. This indicator implies the short-term yield of Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging and the deviation of Bitcoin prices from expected valuations. Historically, the Ahr999 index has been below the bottom line (0.45) for 655 days.

Renowned analyst PlanB stated that Bitcoin is likely to bottom out only after falling below the realized price (around $53,000), just like what happened in previous bear markets. Currently, the curve representing the realized price has been almost overlapping with the black curve representing the 200-week geometric moving average since 2023.

Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of the Liebit mining pool, stated that the current mNAV of Strategy has fallen to 0.72, close to the low of 0.7 set during the last bear market in May 2022. Based on recent market sentiment events such as the decoupling of STRC, it is judged that we are currently in the bottom area of the mNAV for this cycle. mNAV often leads BTC prices to bottom out by about 6 months, and based on the "four-year cycle" and the decreasing volatility model, this round of Bitcoin bear market may bottom out between October and December 2026, with a target price range of $42,000 to $44,000. Jiang Zhuoer indicated that his recent short-term strategy remains focused on selling spot and shorting, and will switch to buying spot and going long once the expected bottom arrives.

Analyst Murphy stated that there is strong support around $60,000 before and after the expiration of Bitcoin options on June 26, making it difficult to break below that level easily. In the corresponding Gamma chart, the range of $59,000 to $62,000 shows a clear positive Gamma, and the hedging behavior of market makers will suppress volatility, making it easier for the price to be fixed in that area. At the same time, there is a significant accumulation of Put options with a strike price of $60,000, totaling up to 4,620 BTC, forming a strong Put wall that will generate substantial buying power and provide solid support as the price approaches. Historically, when similar options structures have appeared, they often correspond to phase bottoms or the end of pullback stages. Analyst Murphy believes that $60,000 remains a strong support level in the short term and is cautiously optimistic about the short-term market performance.

10x Research released the latest market report indicating that Bitcoin traders have long misunderstood the indicators of "global money supply" and "global liquidity," while the trend of the US dollar is one of the important factors affecting Bitcoin prices. 10x Research pointed out that the US dollar is currently strengthening from multiple dimensions, and historical experience shows that a strong dollar is usually unfavorable for Bitcoin. Its dollar model has only triggered 6 sell signals since 2011, with the last one occurring in November 2025, followed by several months of continuous decline in Bitcoin prices.The report also stated that the global liquidity indicator, which circulated widely in the crypto community last year, was misused by the market. According to its research framework, this indicator issued a buy signal in early March this year and a sell signal at the end of April, and the team has calculated the next possible triggering time window. 10x Research stated that the report combines the trend of the US dollar, global liquidity, and other macro driving factors to analyze the potential time and value ranges for the low point of this bear market, and believes that the time window corresponding to the low point of Bitcoin's current cycle is gradually approaching.

After reaching a new low of about $59,000 in 2026, Bitcoin has closed above $63,000 for three consecutive weeks, indicating that the technical structure remains relatively solid. This trend is similar to the bottoming pattern observed before the trend reversal in the previous bear market phase.Data shows that Bitcoin futures open interest has decreased by 19.5% from the June high, the funding rate has dropped from 0.1% at the beginning of June to 0.02%, and approximately $540 million has flowed out of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the past two weeks, a significant slowdown compared to the $5.5 billion outflow in the previous month. These figures suggest that the market is releasing excess selling pressure while still maintaining proximity to key support zones.From the weekly chart, Bitcoin's current movement is similar to that from late 2022 to early 2023. At that time, the weekly RSI entered oversold territory and rebounded, forming higher lows, while the price created lower lows, resulting in a bullish divergence and becoming a key turning point before the upward trend in 2023. The current market is focused on the $63,000 area, where Bitcoin has formed a positive RSI divergence near this level, and has closed above $63,000 multiple times on a weekly basis, keeping the price above the recent low of $59,000.In terms of on-chain data, analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that long-term holders have realized supply recently rising to 12.42 million BTC, indicating that supply continues to mature and flow to stronger holders. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin selling pressure indicator has remained inactive for 1,256 days, marking the longest period on record, suggesting that Bitcoin may be stabilizing near a potential cycle low.