outlook

Multicoin Capital Managing Partner Tushar Jain stated that the crypto market has bottomed out and entered a turning point, with current market sentiment truly reaching a low. Recent major hacking incidents and other news have not triggered large-scale sell-offs, application adoption rates continue to rise, and prices have become disconnected from fundamentals.He maintains a long-term optimistic view on Solana, believing that SOL is the correct architecture for spot trading and tokenized securities; he is also optimistic about Hyperliquid's leading position in the derivatives space, currently holding significant positions in both. Regarding ZEC, he mentioned that Multicoin has accumulated a considerable proportion of the supply and believes it represents a return to the "crypto-punk" values of the industry, with the potential to enter the top five by market capitalization.In terms of position management, he employs a "three-part method": immediately buying one-third, dollar-cost averaging the second one-third, and keeping the final one-third as flexible funds to respond to major declines. After confirming that no hackers exploited the Zcash code vulnerability incident, the team significantly increased their positions.

According to Jinshi reports, the tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated sharply this week, with mutual attacks leading to the collapse of a fragile ceasefire agreement that had lasted for about three weeks. The inflationary pressure driven by rising oil prices has reignited expectations for the Federal Reserve to tighten its policies. During the same period, U.S. stocks largely ignored geopolitical uncertainties, with the "AI trading" frenzy regaining momentum, as the S&P 500 index approached an all-time high, and both it and the Nasdaq recorded a consecutive weekly gain. SK Hynix's ADR surged 13% on its first day, with a fundraising amount of $26.5 billion, making it the highest fundraising foreign company IPO in U.S. stock market history.In the coming week, the U.S.-Iran situation, U.S. CPI and other economic data, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials will capture Wall Street's attention. There is particular anticipation for whether Federal Reserve Chairman Waller can provide more clues about the interest rate outlook under questioning in Congress, although his determination to cancel forward guidance leaves little room for optimism. The macro data events for next week are as follows:MondayFederal Reserve Governor Waller speaksTuesdayU.S. ADP employment change for the week ending June 27U.S. June CPI and core CPIFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the House Financial Services Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingWednesday2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a fireside chatU.S. June PPI and core PPIFOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams speaksFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingFederal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditionsThursdayU.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, U.S. June retail sales month-on-month, U.S. July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan speaksFederal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks on the economy and monetary policy

According to Jinshi reports, ING analyst Chris Turner stated that expectations for the European Central Bank to possibly raise interest rates again in September are supporting the euro. He pointed out that tensions between the U.S. and Iran have led to a surge in oil prices, but the euro has shown resilience as the yield spread has narrowed in favor of the euro.However, he also mentioned that the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is a "more dominant theme," which could lead to the euro falling below 1.14 against the dollar.

According to Jinshi reports, Albert Park, Chief Economist of the Asian Development Bank, stated that the end of the ceasefire in the Middle East has darkened the outlook for developing economies in Asia. The escalation of conflict will drive up energy prices, intensify inflationary pressures, and prolong supply chain disruptions, which may tighten global financial conditions, raise imported inflation, and consequently be detrimental to the growth prospects of developing countries in Asia.

According to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 7,800 points, believing that the outlook is approaching a "clear sky" scenario.

According to Jinshi reports, S&P has assigned a "BBB" rating with a stable outlook to the preferred bonds that SpaceX (SPCX.O) plans to issue.

According to Jinshi reports, Moody's has assigned SpaceX a Baa1 rating, which is investment grade, with a stable outlook.

Next week, the market focus will be on the interest rate decisions of several major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Since taking office as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Waller has remained silent, and the press conference following the June interest rate decision will be a key validation of his monetary policy stance. The market also expects him to send clear signals regarding communication mechanism reforms. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are in Beijing time):Monday 15:15, European Central Bank President Lagarde will deliver a speech;Tuesday TBD, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision; 14:30, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi will hold a monetary policy press conference;Tuesday 20:15, U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending May 30;Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections summary; 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller will hold a monetary policy press conference;Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, U.S. June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.In terms of policy signals, the market is focused on whether three hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve will materialize: first, whether the wording "the next step is likely to be a rate cut" will be removed from the original policy statement. If this wording is removed, it means the Federal Reserve officially ends its previous easing bias and shifts to a policy tone centered on combating inflation. Second, changes in the dot plot; the March dot plot indicated one more rate cut within the year, but this dot plot is likely to shift to show stable rates, and there may even be a situation where a majority of officials expect rate hikes. Finally, there is a tilt in risk preference. If officials' concerns about inflation significantly increase and worries about the labor market diminish, it may pave the way for subsequent rate hikes.On Friday (June 19), due to the Juneteenth holiday, the New York Stock Exchange will be closed for one day. Trading in precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, stock index, and U.S. Treasury futures contracts on the CME will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 20th, and trading in Brent crude oil futures contracts on the Intercontinental Exchange will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 20th.

According to Jinshi reports, after the release of significantly better-than-expected non-farm payroll data on Friday, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes this year surged, causing spot gold to plummet sharply, nearly erasing all gains for the year, marking a fourth consecutive week of declines. Silver's overall trend mirrored that of gold but with slightly stronger volatility, closing down 9.85% for the week. The U.S. dollar index, buoyed by the unexpected non-farm data, rose significantly to just above the 100 mark. Following the non-farm data on Friday, U.S. tech stocks suffered heavy losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.35%, the S&P 500 index fell 2.65%, marking the largest single-day drop since October 2025; the Nasdaq dropped 4.18%, the largest single-day decline since April 2025.Goldman Sachs believes that the current market sentiment is clearly more greedy than fearful. Deutsche Bank pointed out that the market is highly sensitive to any negative news involving Iran. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are in Beijing time):Monday 23:00, U.S. May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;Tuesday 14:00, Germany April seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month, April seasonally adjusted trade balance;Tuesday 18:00, U.S. May NFIB Small Business Confidence Index;Tuesday 20:15, U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending May 23;Wednesday 20:30, U.S. May unadjusted CPI, May seasonally adjusted CPI/core CPI month-on-month;Wednesday 21:45, Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision;Thursday 20:15, European Central Bank announces interest rate decision;Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 6, May PPI year-on-year/month-on-month;Friday 14:00, Germany May CPI month-on-month final value;Friday 14:45, France May CPI month-on-month final value;Friday 22:00, U.S. June 1-year inflation expectations preliminary value, June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value.In the coming week, the market will face a series of important events, but the most anticipated remains the potential initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX. According to current plans, this transaction may launch on Friday, and if it proceeds, it is expected to have a significant impact on overall market sentiment, although the specific direction is still difficult to determine.In addition to SpaceX, the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, earnings reports, and TSMC's May sales data may also become important factors influencing market volatility. Next week, U.S. stocks will enter a relatively calm phase of earnings season; although the overall number of reports is not large, heavyweight tech companies Oracle and Adobe will take the stage one after another, becoming the focus of market attention.

According to Jinshi News, Chris Turner from ING stated in a report that the prospects for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike are increasingly strengthening, which is expected to support the dollar. Even with news of specific progress in peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, the dollar should not have much room for decline.He pointed out that Federal Reserve Governor Waller warned in a recent speech that if oil prices remain high, the possibility of an interest rate hike cannot be ruled out. At the same time, due to economic fragility, investors have lowered their expectations for interest rate hikes in the Eurozone and the UK.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that staff forecasts for economic activity are slightly stronger than the predictions made at the March meeting, expecting that the real GDP growth rate will be slightly above the potential growth rate in the coming years. The unemployment rate is expected to be close to long-term levels in the next two years, slightly below this level around 2028. Staff inflation forecasts for this year are higher than those made at the March meeting, mainly due to the latest data and higher energy prices. Inflation is expected to approach 2% by the end of next year. Overall, the risks to the inflation forecast are tilted to the upside, and staff believe that the possibility of inflation being more persistent than expected is worth noting.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that the economic outlook forecast by Federal Reserve staff is slightly stronger than during the March meeting.

According to Jinshi reports, the US and Israel are expected to resume strikes against Iran as early as next week. Amidst the soaring expectations of interest rate hikes in the bond market, the last meeting minutes of the "Powell era" are coming. Here are the key points that the market will focus on next week (all in Beijing time):Tuesday 9:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of the May monetary policy meeting;Tuesday 20:00, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak at the European Central Bank research conference;Tuesday 20:15, the weekly change in ADP employment numbers for the week ending May 2 in the United States;Wednesday 7:00, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak;Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting;Thursday 20:00, European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane will speak at the European Central Bank research conference.The AI boom and consumer spending under inflationary pressure are the two main themes currently influencing the direction of US stocks. Next week, semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA) and a number of retail companies such as Walmart (WMT) will successively disclose their earnings reports. Nvidia will release its earnings report after the US market closes on Wednesday, and Walmart will release its earnings report before the US market opens on Thursday.

According to Jinshi reports, this week, significant signs of peace have emerged in the US-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, greatly easing geopolitical risks. Next week, it is worth paying close attention to whether these two geopolitical conflicts can further cool down. In addition, next week's macro events will focus on the US April CPI data, as detailed below:Tuesday 15:15, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion on monetary policy;Tuesday 20:15, US ADP employment change for the week ending April 25;Tuesday 20:30, US April CPI data;Wednesday 04:30, US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 8;Wednesday 20:30, US April PPI year-on-year and month-on-month;Friday 05:30, Fed Governor Barr will deliver a speech;Friday 21:15, US April industrial production month-on-month.Finally, next week the Federal Reserve will undergo significant personnel changes. Nominee Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to be confirmed by the Senate on Monday and will officially take over from Powell on May 15.In terms of US stocks, as of this Friday, a new round of surges has pushed the S&P 500 index up 8% cumulatively in 2026, continuing to rise on the basis of achieving double-digit returns for three consecutive years. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has risen nearly 13% year-to-date, with both major indices reaching all-time highs. Although the first quarter earnings season is nearing its end, corporate reports will still be a key driver of stock prices in the coming days.AI

According to Jinshi reports, ECB board member Nagel stated that if the inflation outlook does not improve, it means an interest rate hike may occur in June.

Multiple data points indicate that $80,000 is the next target for Bitcoin. Bitcoin rose 2.52% on Friday after holding support at the 100-day exponential moving average (100-EMA). Meanwhile, buying volume in the spot market increased, with the cumulative volume delta (CVD) reaching 11,500 BTC, the highest level since February 17.BTC futures activity is also heating up, with open interest rising 6.64% to 257,000 BTC, indicating new positions are being established. After testing the daily trend over the past two days, Bitcoin rebounded from the 100-day EMA. This pushed the price up 2.52% to $78,800 on Friday, maintaining a solid short-term upward trend. The 100-day EMA, currently acting as dynamic support on the daily chart, suggests that higher time frame charts remain bullish. Spot demand is also strengthening. The CVD tracking net buys and net sells in the spot market reached 11,500 BTC, a new high since February 17, indicating that buyers have absorbed supply during the recent pullback.Derivatives positions are expanding in sync with prices, showing new participants entering the market. Over the past 24 hours, total open interest rose 6.64% to 257,000 BTC, indicating that new positions are being established while Bitcoin consolidates below $80,000. This follows a recent liquidation of about 9,000 BTC in leverage, suggesting that excess positions have been cleared as the leveraged market rebuilds. Futures volume has returned to 98,300 BTC, signaling a return of net buying pressure. However, it remains below the levels seen during the pullback on April 27. Meanwhile, liquidity continues to accumulate in the $78,000 to $80,000 range, with about $2.1 billion in short positions facing risk, which could trigger a short squeeze near this key level.Institutional activity is also leaning supportive. The 30-day change in OTC balances has dropped to about -20,700 BTC, comparable to levels in March 2025, with the decline in balances indicating that BTC is flowing out of over-the-counter markets, reducing the immediately available supply. ETF fund flows show a similar pattern, with ETF inflows in April reaching $1.97 billion.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the economic outlook is highly uncertain.