outlook

According to Jinshi reports, the US and Israel are expected to resume strikes against Iran as early as next week. Amidst the soaring expectations of interest rate hikes in the bond market, the last meeting minutes of the "Powell era" are coming. Here are the key points that the market will focus on next week (all in Beijing time):Tuesday 9:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of the May monetary policy meeting;Tuesday 20:00, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak at the European Central Bank research conference;Tuesday 20:15, the weekly change in ADP employment numbers for the week ending May 2 in the United States;Wednesday 7:00, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak;Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting;Thursday 20:00, European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane will speak at the European Central Bank research conference.The AI boom and consumer spending under inflationary pressure are the two main themes currently influencing the direction of US stocks. Next week, semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA) and a number of retail companies such as Walmart (WMT) will successively disclose their earnings reports. Nvidia will release its earnings report after the US market closes on Wednesday, and Walmart will release its earnings report before the US market opens on Thursday.

According to Jinshi reports, this week, significant signs of peace have emerged in the US-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, greatly easing geopolitical risks. Next week, it is worth paying close attention to whether these two geopolitical conflicts can further cool down. In addition, next week's macro events will focus on the US April CPI data, as detailed below:Tuesday 15:15, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion on monetary policy;Tuesday 20:15, US ADP employment change for the week ending April 25;Tuesday 20:30, US April CPI data;Wednesday 04:30, US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 8;Wednesday 20:30, US April PPI year-on-year and month-on-month;Friday 05:30, Fed Governor Barr will deliver a speech;Friday 21:15, US April industrial production month-on-month.Finally, next week the Federal Reserve will undergo significant personnel changes. Nominee Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to be confirmed by the Senate on Monday and will officially take over from Powell on May 15.In terms of US stocks, as of this Friday, a new round of surges has pushed the S&P 500 index up 8% cumulatively in 2026, continuing to rise on the basis of achieving double-digit returns for three consecutive years. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has risen nearly 13% year-to-date, with both major indices reaching all-time highs. Although the first quarter earnings season is nearing its end, corporate reports will still be a key driver of stock prices in the coming days.AI

According to Jinshi reports, ECB board member Nagel stated that if the inflation outlook does not improve, it means an interest rate hike may occur in June.

Multiple data points indicate that $80,000 is the next target for Bitcoin. Bitcoin rose 2.52% on Friday after holding support at the 100-day exponential moving average (100-EMA). Meanwhile, buying volume in the spot market increased, with the cumulative volume delta (CVD) reaching 11,500 BTC, the highest level since February 17.BTC futures activity is also heating up, with open interest rising 6.64% to 257,000 BTC, indicating new positions are being established. After testing the daily trend over the past two days, Bitcoin rebounded from the 100-day EMA. This pushed the price up 2.52% to $78,800 on Friday, maintaining a solid short-term upward trend. The 100-day EMA, currently acting as dynamic support on the daily chart, suggests that higher time frame charts remain bullish. Spot demand is also strengthening. The CVD tracking net buys and net sells in the spot market reached 11,500 BTC, a new high since February 17, indicating that buyers have absorbed supply during the recent pullback.Derivatives positions are expanding in sync with prices, showing new participants entering the market. Over the past 24 hours, total open interest rose 6.64% to 257,000 BTC, indicating that new positions are being established while Bitcoin consolidates below $80,000. This follows a recent liquidation of about 9,000 BTC in leverage, suggesting that excess positions have been cleared as the leveraged market rebuilds. Futures volume has returned to 98,300 BTC, signaling a return of net buying pressure. However, it remains below the levels seen during the pullback on April 27. Meanwhile, liquidity continues to accumulate in the $78,000 to $80,000 range, with about $2.1 billion in short positions facing risk, which could trigger a short squeeze near this key level.Institutional activity is also leaning supportive. The 30-day change in OTC balances has dropped to about -20,700 BTC, comparable to levels in March 2025, with the decline in balances indicating that BTC is flowing out of over-the-counter markets, reducing the immediately available supply. ETF fund flows show a similar pattern, with ETF inflows in April reaching $1.97 billion.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the economic outlook is highly uncertain.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicates that the developments in the Middle East have increased uncertainty in the economic outlook.

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, in the past hour, 0xbac opened a 40x leveraged BTC short position, with a scale of 11.67 million USD, an average price of 77,749 USD, and a liquidation price at 81,286 USD. In addition, this address has also placed a market take-profit order, planning to close the position when BTC drops to the integer level of 70,000 USD.

According to Jinshi reports, global markets significantly rebounded over the past week driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, but core uncertainties remain unresolved. Iran once announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rapid decline in oil prices, a broad strengthening of risk assets, U.S. stocks reaching new highs, a weakening dollar, and gold approaching the $4900 mark. However, Iran subsequently signaled that it "is still under military control," combined with the U.S. maintaining sanctions against Iran, which has heightened market concerns about the volatility of the situation.On the macro level, the biggest variable next week will still be the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations may advance over the weekend and warned that if an agreement is not reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could end, and there is a risk of renewed conflict; meanwhile, Iran's attitude towards negotiations remains cautious, especially with significant differences on key issues such as uranium enrichment. The market has currently shifted from "pricing in conflict escalation" to "pricing in a path to easing," but any sudden changes could still trigger sharp asset fluctuations.In terms of interest rate expectations, the decline in energy prices has alleviated inflationary pressures, and the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year have risen to about 60%. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will attend a Senate hearing next week, and his policy stance (especially whether it leans dovish) will become an important variable affecting gold and risk assets.On Tuesday at 20:30, U.S. March retail sales month-on-month;On Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18;On Thursday at 21:45, U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI preliminary;On Friday at 22:00, U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value, one-year inflation expectations final value;In the short term, the market's main focus will revolve around three major variables: progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, oil price trends, and signals from the Federal Reserve.

According to Jinshi reports, European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that the risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside.

According to Jinshi reports, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes show that all members believe the risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside.

Investment bank William Blair stated that after a decline of about 26% from its peak in the first quarter, Coinbase has basically completed its de-risking, and the market's expectations for its weak trading volume and revenue have been fully reflected in its stock price.Analysts pointed out that although the trading data in the first quarter was weak, it had limited impact on market sentiment, and the company is enhancing its competitiveness through a "full-service trading platform" that includes derivatives, staking, stock trading, and prediction markets. The report emphasized that the continued growth of the stablecoin USDC is a core positive, with its market share rising to about 27%, a significant increase from around 21% in 2024, and it continues to capture market share from USDT.William Blair believes that the expansion of USDC brings synergistic benefits to Coinbase and its issuer Circle, and is optimistic about the latter's long-term value in stablecoin payment and trading scenarios. At the same time, institutions believe that the probability of a long-term downturn in the cryptocurrency market is low, and Coinbase has "asymmetric upside potential" in the market recovery.

According to Jinshi reports, the Director of the National Economic Council of the White House, Hassett, stated that the Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates, and this outlook will be very solid.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently priced at about $71,200, and Ethereum is at $2,185, with the overall market maintaining a range-bound fluctuation. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone warned that if Bitcoin cannot recover to $75,000, there is a risk of dropping to $10,000; Fundstrat founder Tom Lee believes that the market bottom has been established.In terms of derivatives, Bitcoin futures open interest has risen to 726,000 contracts, with the 24-hour CVD being positive for two consecutive days, and the funding rate slightly above zero, indicating an overall bullish tendency; the CVD and funding rates for ETH, XRP, and Solana are slightly negative. The volatility index continues to decline, with the market expecting price fluctuations of only about 2.5% around Friday's inflation data.Regarding altcoins, MANA and AERO each rose by about 6%, but MANA's increase was accompanied by a 25% surge in open interest, indicating it is mainly driven by leverage. The market is focused on whether Bitcoin can effectively break through $75,000 and establish support; if achieved, it may trigger a rotation of funds into oversold altcoin sectors.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that Federal Reserve staff expect economic activity to be not as strong as anticipated during the January meeting.

According to Cryptopolitan, Coinbase Institutional has given a neutral outlook for the second quarter market, citing macro and geopolitical uncertainties such as the Iran conflict that make predictions highly unreliable.Coinbase referenced a Bank of America fund manager survey indicating that cash holdings rose nearly one percentage point to 4.3% in a single month, the fastest accumulation rate in five years. Despite the recent S&P 500 experiencing declines of three to four standard deviations, Bitcoin only underwent a one standard deviation pullback, showing relative strength. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded approximately $471 million in net inflows on April 6, marking the strongest single-day performance in six weeks, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the way.The institutional holding ratio has increased from 24% a year ago to about 38%, with hedge funds, pension funds, and others collectively holding over $40 billion in shares. Morgan Stanley began listing its Bitcoin ETF on the NYSE on April 8, becoming the first major U.S. bank to directly issue a spot Bitcoin ETF.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson holds a cautious attitude towards the economic outlook due to increasing uncertainty.

Coinbase Institutional released the Q2 2026 cryptocurrency market outlook, maintaining a neutral stance. The report points out that the escalation of the situation in Iran has disrupted market expectations for fiscal and monetary stimulus, driving funds back into cash assets. Despite significant volatility in global markets, Bitcoin's decline is notably smaller than that of the S&P 500, demonstrating greater resilience amid the fluctuations.The institution believes that the current macro environment is changing rapidly, with geopolitical risks intertwined with inflation and interest rate expectations, leading to a lack of clear direction in the cryptocurrency market in the short term. Coinbase Institutional recommends focusing on highly liquid and well-established assets like Bitcoin under a neutral allocation, waiting for signals of trend changes after geopolitical risks ease and macro policies become clearer.

Michael Saylor, the founder and executive chairman of Bitcoin Treasury Company Strategy, posted on social media, "It's time to put the laser eyes back on," sending a clear bullish signal."Laser eyes" was a symbolic mark of support for Bitcoin in the crypto community during the bull market, and this statement seems to express an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin's future.

According to Jinshi reports, Ameriprise Financial Chief Market Strategist Anthony Saglimbene stated that the Federal Reserve's policy statement and interest rate decision were in line with expectations, and the economic outlook summary and statement were slightly dovish. He pointed out that although PCE and core PCE expectations have risen, the statement still emphasizes that the economic conditions are good, with moderate job growth and a stable unemployment rate.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Collins stated that the current inflation outlook is uncertain and there are upside risks.