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Cryptoquant Founder: The peak of this Bitcoin bull market cycle may be driven by global institutional and ETF demand

Cryptoquant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju stated that the peak of the current Bitcoin bull market cycle may be driven by institutional funds and ETF demand outside the United States. He pointed out that deeper stablecoin liquidity and tokenized asset infrastructure will expand global market participation. Using South Korea as an example, Ki Young Ju mentioned that the country currently does not have a spot Bitcoin ETF, retail investors cannot purchase overseas-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, and most companies are unable to open trading accounts to buy BTC. South Korea has phased in corporate participation, with the Financial Services Commission (FSC) roadmap covering about 3,500 listed companies and qualified professional investors, but financial institutions and other companies are still excluded.Strategy's Bitcoin bank evaluated 25 major institutions covering trading, custody, digital asset products, financing, and corporate participation, with an overall adoption rate of 32%. RWA.xyz data shows that the global tokenized asset distributed asset value is $38.63 billion, an increase of 2.65% compared to 30 days ago. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) stated that stablecoins have the potential to enable faster, programmable payments, but current designs may pose risks to financial integrity, liquidity, and currency. Ki Young Ju pointed out that the cumulative net inflow before the launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF was about $57 billion over two years, and the next phase will be global institutionalization, with more institutions adopting BTC as a strategic asset, and countries lacking ETFs will also improve related investment channels.

first_img Unitree's stock price has fallen about 45% from its peak after going public, raising concerns about a bubble

According to a report by Reuters, after the Chinese robot manufacturer Unitree was listed on the Shanghai Star Market, its stock price has cumulatively dropped about 45% from the peak on its first day of trading. The market value once soared to $66 billion before retreating by about $30 billion, raising concerns about bubble risks, retail investor losses, and the IPO mechanism. On its first day of listing, it closed up 460%, far exceeding the average first-day increase of 226% for new stocks in China over the past three years, and then fell for three consecutive days, with the stock price stabilizing somewhat on Tuesday.Unitree is one of the world's leading manufacturers of quadruped and humanoid robots, capable of performing actions such as running, dancing, and martial arts, but broader commercialization remains limited, competing with companies like Tesla and Boston Dynamics. The prospectus shows that the adjusted net profit for the first quarter of 2026 decreased by 53% year-on-year to 40 million yuan, and there are also signs of profit slowing in the first half of the year. The company was listed through a fast-track process on the Star Market, which may set a precedent for other domestic peers.Analysts point out that investors are driven by the "technology revolution narrative," and the first-day performance reflects market sentiment. The discrepancy between IPO pricing and opening price indicates that at least one party is misaligned; there are also views that the rise is more due to motives for raising prices for unloading, with short selling being restricted and retail investors exacerbating volatility. Some institutions believe that robot companies have high R&D investments and that orders have not yet been realized on a large scale, making it inappropriate to focus solely on short-term profits, similar to the early electric vehicle industry.

first_img Analysis: CXMT's production capacity has peaked, and DRAM prices continue to rise sharply

Analysis indicates that China's major DRAM manufacturer CXMT's monthly wafer output has reached a peak of approximately 240,000 pieces by the end of 2025, and is expected to remain flat in 2026. Due to the tightening of U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment, especially EUV lithography machines, its capacity for expansion is limited, and substantial expansion will not occur until at least 2027, depending on the progress of the domestic equipment supply chain. According to Goldman Sachs data, CXMT's coverage of domestic DRAM demand is only about 41% in 2026 and about 50% in 2028, reflecting a structural bottleneck for many years.TrendForce data shows that traditional DRAM contract prices are expected to surge by 90%-95% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, followed by another increase of 58%-63% in the second quarter. Jefferies predicts that prices will continue to rise by 40%-50% and 30%-40% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. The price increase for server DRAM is even steeper, with Samsung and SK Hynix proposing price hikes of 60%-70% to clients like Microsoft and Google in the first quarter. S&P Global expects Samsung's traditional DRAM revenue per bit to rise by 116% year-on-year to $0.79 in 2026, while Micron's ASP will increase by 54% to $1.06; Bernstein predicts that SK Hynix's DRAM gross margin could reach 92.7% in the fourth quarter of 2026.Multiple forecasts suggest that effective supply relief may not occur until the end of 2027 or even 2028.
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