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Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Andy: U.S. inflation heats up again, market re-trades "higher for longer"

Surrounding the unexpected rebound of the U.S. September CPI, Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Andy pointed out that inflation is spreading from energy to core prices. The U.S. September CPI rose year-on-year to 3.7%, and the core CPI rose year-on-year to 2.6%. Gasoline prices increased by 9.1% in a single month, contributing to more than half of the overall increase, but prices for housing, healthcare, and airline services also rose, indicating that this rebound cannot be fully explained by energy shocks.The data reinforces the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" policy logic. The economy has not yet shown significant signs of recession, and the Federal Reserve lacks urgent reasons to shift to easing, needing to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored. After the CPI announcement, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar quickly rose, with the market raising expectations for subsequent interest rate hikes, leading to increased uncertainty in the interest rate path.For the cryptocurrency market, this change is slightly bearish in the short term. The market first trades on real interest rates, the dollar, and global liquidity; high inflation does not automatically favor Bitcoin. After the CPI announcement, Bitcoin weakened and fell below $82,000. In the medium term, it is necessary to distinguish between "energy-driven inflation" and "demand-driven inflation": if energy prices decline and core inflation no longer accelerates, the September data is more likely to be a temporary supply shock; if core service inflation continues to rise, then the high interest rate level may be maintained longer than expected. The direction of Bitcoin depends on whether inflation, employment, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields can jointly confirm a new policy path.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: The direction of Bitcoin awaits the determination of CPI, with the lower edge of $81,000 likely to be tested first

Bitcoin has retreated from around $86,000 at the beginning of October, fluctuating in the range of $81,000 to $84,000 in recent days, while the US dollar has strengthened and US Treasury yields remain high. Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the likelihood of breaking down from the fluctuation range is greater.The ISM services price index rose to 74.0 in September, the highest since July 2022, and the one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan rose to 4.7% in October. The rise in price components and inflation expectations indicates that the probability of CPI exceeding expectations this Thursday is not low; if this materializes, the pricing for interest rate hikes at the end of the year will be further strengthened, and the lower bound of $81,000 will be tested first. Only if CPI is below expectations will the breakthrough of the upper bound of $84,000 have sustainability.The recent decline in chip stocks is mainly due to the repricing of AI capital expenditures and hardware profit expectations. The retracement of Bitcoin is smaller, indicating that its pricing is more aligned with macro liquidity, and its correlation with the AI narrative is weakening; however, this divergence is temporary. Once the US dollar and long-term interest rates regain dominance in pricing, the linkage will quickly strengthen, with the CPI announcement on Thursday evening serving as a recent testing window.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: The Bitcoin pullback is a normal retracement, and the differentiation of altcoins may continue until this week's data is released

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned to above 5.2% overnight, reaching a high not seen since 2007, putting pressure on global risk assets. Bitcoin has fallen back to around $83,000, with altcoins experiencing even larger declines. In this regard, Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that this drop is more akin to a normal pullback after a rebound and does not constitute the starting point of a trend reversal. The high U.S. Treasury yields mainly suppress valuations, with limited impact on the overall liquidity. The funding structure and holding costs of the crypto market itself have also not been disrupted. This round of decline seems more like a clearing of positions before key data is released.It is important to be cautious about the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins. During a phase of marginal liquidity tightening, funds tend to concentrate on the most certain top assets; altcoins lack incremental funds to support them, and with heavier leverage, their pullbacks are therefore amplified. This divergence is likely to continue before the release of this week's PCE and non-farm data. If the data falls short of expectations, altcoins will have greater elasticity and thus higher risks; if the data exceeds expectations, Bitcoin's relative strength will be more pronounced. Whether Bitcoin can stabilize at key support levels will be the main signal to determine if this round of pullback has ended.Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin's rebound has seen spot buying support, and its sustainability depends on ETF inflows and leverage temperature

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud stated that Bitcoin quickly rebounded after hitting the bottom under the dual pressure of interest rate hikes and the obstruction of the Clear Act, with a weekly increase of about 16%, rising to $87,307 during trading on September 21 (Huobi HTX spot price), reaching a new high since January. This round of increase is driven by three forces: the net inflow of about $1 billion into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF on September 21, the largest single day of the year; short positions being liquidated for about $650 million within 24 hours; and falling oil prices leading to a cooling of inflation expectations. Compared to last week's rebound, which was mainly driven by passive replenishment, this week saw a relay of spot buying.Whether the trend can continue depends on two points: whether ETF inflows can shift from a single-day pulse to a continuous trend, and whether leverage can be maintained at a non-overheated level. Currently, the funding rate is about 0.01%, in a neutral range, but the open interest of Bitcoin contracts has risen above $61 billion. If the capital weakens, high leverage will amplify the pullback. Market sentiment has entered an extreme greed zone, which historically has often been a precursor signal for short-term trend reversals. Technically, $87,500 is the resistance above, while the first support zone is between $84,000 and $85,000. The trend has conditions for continuation, but the highest risk of short-term volatility also occurs during the hottest phase of sentiment.Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst: The Fed's hawkish rate hikes reshape policy credibility

Regarding the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in the September meeting, Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Andy pointed out that what truly deserves attention is the comprehensive hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's stance. All 12 officials rarely supported the decision unanimously, and the dot plot clearly indicates another rate hike within the year, with tightening becoming a consensus.The core message conveyed by the meeting is that the Federal Reserve is determined to rebuild its credibility against inflation at all costs. The economic forecast summary raised growth expectations and lowered the unemployment rate, reflecting confidence in a soft landing; however, the path for core inflation to decline has been significantly delayed, indicating that the higher-ups have accepted the reality of "higher for longer." Chairman Waller's statement is particularly crucial, placing anti-inflation efforts as an absolute priority. Even though the current economic fundamentals are robust and oil price fluctuations are supply-side factors, the Fed still chooses to respond with a tightening stance. This "better to be too tight than too loose" position has temporarily pushed up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, while suppressing gold.For the cryptocurrency market, uncertainty has actually decreased. A clearer policy path helps compress risk premiums, which is not a bad thing for risk assets in the medium to long term. The key going forward lies in data validation: if employment and growth remain strong, rate hikes may continue but at a slower pace; if the economy shows cracks, there is still room for a policy shift. Overall, the Federal Reserve is trading short-term pain for long-term policy credibility.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: The rejection of the clear bill is a one-time shock to the price and a continuous pressure on the valuation

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud stated that after the clear bill was blocked in the Senate procedural vote, Bitcoin fell from the $77,800 level to $74,910. This round of selling pressure is event-driven, and historically similar shocks are usually digested within 5 to 10 trading days. The actual cost of the bill's failure falls in terms of timing: Congress is on recess this month, the midterm elections in November, effectively pushing the legislative window to 2027, with institutional incremental businesses such as bank custody, brokerage distribution, and tokenized securities collectively postponed by a year. The target of this pressure is valuation, and the price response is one-time.Among the factors affecting the single-day decline, the bill accounts for about 60% to 70%, while macro factors account for 30% to 40%; when viewed on the scale of the entire correction, the ratio reverses to 70% macro and 30% bill. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stands at 5.005%, oil prices surged to $105, and interest rate hike expectations have reignited, forming the main pricing line for this week, with the bill merely pushing the already accumulated selling pressure. The bill is the fuse, while interest rates are the explosives. Coinbase fell by 10%, Circle dropped by 11%, significantly higher than Bitcoin's decline, indicating that the market does not believe the bill's failure has harmed Bitcoin's value storage attribute, and ETF funds and institutional allocations are still providing support.What is under pressure is the legislative premium for compliant business operations: the excessive gains of crypto stocks over the past few months largely hinged on the anticipated surge in trading volume, institutional custody, and stablecoin adoption after the bill's passage, and this premium has now been liquidated. Crypto stocks are essentially high-duration, high-leverage derivatives of Bitcoin; a 3% fluctuation in Bitcoin is amplified layer by layer through trading volume, fees, and reserve earnings, ultimately reflecting as a 10% decline in stock prices.
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