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BTC $73,523.80 +0.14%
ETH $2,016.05 +0.60%
BNB $671.14 +5.42%
XRP $1.34 +2.36%
SOL $82.34 +0.74%
TRX $0.3437 +0.47%
DOGE $0.1007 +1.76%
ADA $0.2348 +0.59%
BCH $302.93 +0.97%
LINK $9.14 +2.21%
HYPE $67.50 +8.51%
AAVE $82.85 +1.56%
SUI $0.8976 -1.65%
XLM $0.2494 +21.28%
ZEC $525.16 -1.68%

breakthrough

Citigroup: Breakthroughs in quantum computing are accelerating, Bitcoin faces excessive quantum risks

According to CoinDesk, Citibank stated in its latest report that the progress of quantum computing technology is faster than the market expected, accelerating the potential security risks faced by cryptocurrencies and internet infrastructure, with Bitcoin being considered one of the assets with the "greatest risk exposure." The report points out that the ECDSA elliptic curve cryptography system currently used by Bitcoin could theoretically be cracked by sufficiently powerful quantum computers. In the future, attackers may be able to derive private keys from publicly disclosed public keys, allowing them to forge transactions and steal assets.Citibank analyst Alex Saunders stated that due to its relatively conservative governance mechanism and slow protocol upgrade speed, Bitcoin is more difficult to quickly complete quantum-resistant upgrades compared to PoS networks like Ethereum. The report estimates that there are currently about 6.5 million to 6.9 million BTC at potential quantum risk due to exposed public keys, accounting for about one-third of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $450 billion at current prices. This includes some early P2PK addresses and wallets believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto.Citibank also warns of the "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" risk, where attackers currently collect encrypted data and wait until future quantum computing power matures to decrypt it all at once.However, Citibank remains optimistic about the long-term adaptability of the cryptocurrency industry, believing that blockchain can still migrate through post-quantum cryptography and protocol reconstruction in the future. The report mentions that the BIP-360 and BIP-361 upgrade proposals currently being discussed by the Bitcoin community are worth paying attention to.

Analysis: Bitcoin is trapped in a narrow range of fluctuations, with macro liquidity constrained, and the market is waiting for a directional breakthrough

Bitcoin is currently maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern. Under the multiple pressures of the macro environment, market liquidity continues to be constrained, and the price direction remains unclear. Analysis indicates that the interplay of energy prices, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks has led to a compression of liquidity, causing the market to enter a "wait-and-see period." The current market is not lacking in structure but rather in incremental funds.Recently, Bitcoin has stabilized after experiencing volatility, with selling pressure easing somewhat, while ETF fund flows have shown a slight net inflow. However, spot demand remains weak, and the imbalance between supply and demand limits price breakthroughs. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has found support in the $67,000-$69,000 range, with a key resistance level forming around $72,000. Analysts state that there is a "liquidity gap" above this range, and once effectively broken, the price could quickly rise to the $82,000 area; however, until demand shows significant improvement, the market will continue to maintain an oscillating pattern.On the macro level, high energy prices, global central banks maintaining high interest rates, and uncertainties in the Middle East collectively exacerbate market concerns about "stagflation" risks. Kraken Research points out that the combination of slowing growth and inflationary pressures complicates the policy path and suppresses the performance of risk assets. Against this backdrop, the market has entered a "liquidity compression phase."Bitunix analysis suggests that the mismatch of multiple macro factors has compressed funds into a narrow range, with Bitcoin acting more as a risk appetite indicator rather than a trend trading target. In terms of funds, the March spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $1.5 billion, an improvement from the net outflow in February, but still below January levels, indicating cautious institutional fund inflows. The derivatives market is leaning defensive, with funding rates remaining negative and high demand for downside protection; meanwhile, spot trading volume has not shown sustained growth, indicating limited market participation. Overall, Bitcoin has not yet formed a clear breakthrough or downward trend, and is currently closer to a "accumulation and consolidation" phase, with future movements still dependent on macro data, policy signals, and changes in geopolitical situations.

Analysis: Bitcoin buying pressure is returning, and a breakthrough above $78,000 is needed to reverse the downward trend

According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant data shows that as the demand for Bitcoin derivatives rebounds, the net buying volume of Bitcoin indicates that buyers are entering the market. Net buying volume is an indicator of the imbalance of power between active buyers and sellers in the derivatives market, and it has remained positive since the outbreak of the US/Iran war. This positive trend aligns with Bitcoin's recent price rebound to $74,000, indicating that demand in the derivatives market has returned.Coinbureau CEO Nic added, "This shows that the buying volume has surpassed the selling volume, and buyers are taking control of the market." TradingView data shows that Bitcoin has consolidated in the $62,000 to $72,000 range for over four weeks, with multiple attempts to break through $70,000 failing. From a broader perspective, the BTC price remains between the realized price (the average purchase cost of all circulating supply at $54,400) and the real market average price (the cost basis of actively traded coins at $78,000).Glassnode stated, "In the absence of broader macro headwinds, this range may support a bear market relief rally, with its upper limit constrained by the real market average price."Charts show that BTC prices have spent most of 2023 between these two cost levels, with relief rallies repeatedly stalling near the real market average price. Ultimately, in October 2023, with the announcement of the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF, the price broke through.Crypto trader and analyst Titan stated that if the BTC price breaks through the $78,000--$80,000 range, it could signal a change in the long-term trend.

Analysis: Kraken's approval for a Federal Reserve master account is a historic breakthrough for the cryptocurrency industry and may trigger a wave of applications from crypto institutions

Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett posted on social media that Kraken, the second-largest crypto exchange in the U.S., has just accomplished something no other crypto company has done before—obtaining key access qualifications from the Federal Reserve.Kraken's banking division, Kraken Financial, has received approval from the Kansas City Fed to open a master account with the Federal Reserve. This marks the first time a native crypto company has gained (albeit with limited permissions) direct access to the Federal Reserve's payment system.This approval comes five and a half years after Kraken submitted its application to the Kansas City Fed in October 2020. The account allows Kraken to directly access the Federal Reserve's payment system, but does not include the right to use the Fed's lending tools. The company can hold reserves and settle with central bank funds, but cannot issue loans, use the discount window, or operate as a traditional commercial bank.According to sources, Kraken's approval is seen as a pilot project to test this new model. This decision is historically significant for the crypto industry, which has long been excluded from the traditional banking system, and indicates a shift in the Federal Reserve's stance. This move could trigger a wave of applications from other crypto companies seeking master accounts with the Federal Reserve. Custodia Bank, Anchorage, and Ripple's U.S. banking partner have all applied for master accounts.
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