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BCH $451.67 +2.28%
LINK $9.42 +1.54%
HYPE $43.59 -2.24%
AAVE $113.02 +6.74%
SUI $0.9874 +2.59%
XLM $0.1664 +4.89%
ZEC $334.12 -2.31%

costs

CoinShares: Bitcoin mining companies will see mining costs rise to $79,995 in Q4 2025, facing pressure to break even

According to The Block, digital asset management company CoinShares released a report indicating that Bitcoin miners are facing ongoing pressure to break even while accelerating their transition to AI. CoinShares' research director James Butterfill noted that the weighted average cash cost for publicly listed mining companies to mine one Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2025 has risen to approximately $79,995.The price of computing power has further dropped from $36 to $38 per PH/s/day to about $28 to $30 in the first quarter of 2026, meaning miners are still under more pressure. The report also pointed out that a triple negative difficulty adjustment at the end of 2025 is the first since July 2022, with publicly listed miners' Bitcoin reserves decreasing by more than 15,000 coins from their peak, with Core Scientific, Bitdeer, and Riot all having sold, and MARA separately announced the sale of 15,133 Bitcoins on Thursday.Regarding price outlook, Butterfill stated that a rebound in Bitcoin price to $100,000 "is not unrealistic," at which point the price of computing power is expected to rise to about $37 per PH/s/day; if it reaches the previous high near $126,000, it could reach about $59. If Bitcoin remains below $80,000 in the long term, the price of computing power will continue to decline with rising difficulty, but the exit of loss-making capacity may stabilize returns.In terms of the AI transition, Butterfill expects that publicly listed mining companies are rapidly accelerating their shift to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, driven primarily by the higher and more stable returns in these fields compared to Bitcoin mining. By the end of this year, the revenue share from AI for publicly listed mining companies is expected to rise from the current approximately 30% to as high as 70%.

Bitcoin miners enter the "surrender phase": production costs inverted, both hash rate and stock prices under pressure

Bitcoin mining has entered a severe phase, with unit hash rate revenue dropping to a historical low of about $35/PH. Affected by a significant market correction, the price of Bitcoin has fallen over 50% from its 2025 peak of $126,000, currently hovering around the $60,000 range. Against this backdrop, the average production cost of a single Bitcoin across the network is approximately $87,000, about 45% higher than the current market price, marking the first large-scale "underwater operation" since the bear market of 2022.CryptoQuant defines the current phase as the "surrender phase," characterized by the accelerated shutdown of old mining machines and a noticeable contraction in overall network hash rate. As a result, the stock prices of listed mining companies such as MARA Holdings and Riot Platforms have dropped over 20% this week, with funds flowing towards more stable traditional assets like gold.Meanwhile, North America's mining hubs (especially Texas) are facing severe winter storms, forcing some mining farms to limit power usage to ensure the stability of the civilian power grid. Coupled with miner exits, the network experienced a historic difficulty adjustment of about 11% on February 9. However, due to the significant drop in coin prices, the profitability recovery effect from the difficulty adjustment is limited.The industry's "Miner Profitability Sustainability Index" has fallen to 21, indicating that, except for a few operators with low electricity costs and high efficiency, most miners have completely compressed profit margins. For companies with electricity prices above $0.05 per kilowatt-hour or those still using older model mining machines, this difficulty adjustment is unlikely to reverse the risk of total shutdown.To cope with the "2026 mining winter," leading companies are accelerating their transition to artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC). IREN and Core Scientific have redirected some of their data center power capacity to support generative AI businesses to secure more stable long-term contract revenues. Recently, Bitfarms announced a complete exit from Bitcoin mining to focus on its AI strategic transformation.

The number of Solana validator nodes has decreased by 68% over three years, with small nodes being squeezed out of the market by costs

Data shows that the number of validator nodes on the Solana network has significantly decreased from a peak of 2,560 in March 2023 to the current 795, a drop of 68%, raising concerns in the market about the network's level of decentralization.Industry insiders point out that, in addition to clearing "zombie nodes," a more core reason is the continuous rise in operating costs + zero-fee competition among large nodes, which is systematically squeezing out small and medium-sized validators. An independent validator node operator stated that many small nodes are not bearish on Solana, but rather that the economic model has become unsustainable: "Without economic viability, decentralization becomes a charitable act." Meanwhile, Solana's Nakamoto Coefficient has dropped from 31 to 20 during the same period, a decline of about 35%, indicating that the control of staked SOL is concentrating in the hands of a few large nodes, reducing the network's level of decentralization.From a cost perspective: to maintain operation (excluding hardware and servers), a node needs at least $49,000 worth of SOL in the first year; approximately 401 SOL is required annually to pay for voting fees; and daily voting transaction costs can reach up to 1.1 SOL/day. The trend signals are clear: Solana is gradually evolving from a "broad participation node structure" to a structure dominated by large institutional nodes, which may have a profound impact on the network's security structure and governance patterns in the long term.
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