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ZEC $547.39 -1.59%
BTC $70,973.42 -3.80%
ETH $1,992.64 -0.83%
BNB $688.88 -3.01%
XRP $1.29 -3.13%
SOL $80.56 -1.90%
TRX $0.3435 -1.88%
DOGE $0.0998 -0.27%
ADA $0.2293 -2.20%
BCH $289.67 -4.07%
LINK $8.98 -1.47%
HYPE $73.05 +2.58%
AAVE $79.80 -2.56%
SUI $0.8686 -2.71%
XLM $0.2448 -3.23%
ZEC $547.39 -1.59%

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Analyst: Bitcoin volatility has decreased by 56% from its quarterly peak, and the market has entered a high compression accumulation phase

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in a recent report that the Bitcoin market has entered a significant volatility compression phase. The realized volatility over the past week (30-day moving average) has dropped from about 39 in early March this year to the current level of around 17, with a quarterly decline of over 56%, approaching historical low levels. Currently, the BTC price remains around $73,500, still below the approximately $79,500 200-day moving average. Historical experience shows that extremely low volatility often indicates that the market is accumulating energy, typically followed by a significant directional trend. However, volatility compression itself does not provide directional signals; it merely indicates that the market is about to make a new trend choice.Meanwhile, the Delta indicator, which reflects changes in market premiums (the difference between market capitalization growth rate and realized market capitalization growth rate), has been in negative territory for six consecutive months, further dropping to about -0.0013 in May. This indicator suggests that the growth rate of Bitcoin's market capitalization continues to lag behind the growth rate of realized market capitalization, indicating a contraction in market risk appetite and valuation premium.The current market exhibits a combination of "low volatility + cooling premiums," which is not a typical overheated bull market structure but rather resembles a consolidation phase after emotional cooling. If BTC subsequently returns above the 200-day moving average, and Delta rebounds to near zero, it will indicate that the market has re-entered a risk appetite expansion cycle; conversely, if volatility releases downward and Delta continues to deteriorate, it may enter a deeper risk-averse phase.In summary, Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market direction remains neutral, but the degree of compression is at a high level, and the probability of significant directional volatility in the future is continuously increasing.

Trump Media transferred 2,650 BTC to Crypto.com, with a Q1 loss of $405.9 million. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of over $2.26 billion in two weeks, and IBIT holdings decreased to about 800,000 coins

According to BBX data, corporate Bitcoin reserves are under pressure, intertwined with the continuous outflow of ETF funds, leading to an overall cautious sentiment in crypto concept stocks. The core dynamics are as follows:Trump Media & Technology Group, Corp. (NASDAQ: $DJT) transferred 2,650 BTC (approximately $205 million) to a Crypto.com exchange address on May 22. The company's official statement described this as a "transfer rather than a sale," part of an expanded trading strategy, but the actual disposal method remains to be confirmed as of the report deadline. On-chain data shows that the funds have arrived at the Crypto.com exchange address. Previously, the company transferred 2,000 BTC (approximately $175 million) to Crypto.com about four months ago. The Q1 2026 financial report (May 9, CoinDesk) indicates that as of March 31, the company held 9,542.16 BTC (with a fair value of $647.1 million, and a purchase cost of approximately $1.13 billion); after this transfer of 2,650 BTC, Arkham's on-chain estimate of the remaining holdings is about 6,889 BTC (approximately $532 million). The Q1 financial report also disclosed a net loss of $405.9 million (compared to a loss of $31.7 million in the same period last year) and revenue of only $871,200. The company originally purchased 11,542 BTC at an average price of about $118,522, with a total purchase cost of approximately $1.37 billion, and the current holdings are still significantly discounted compared to the cost; during the same period, the company withdrew its ETF applications for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana from Truth Social.The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded over $2.26 billion in net outflows in the two weeks ending May 23, ending a streak of seven consecutive weeks of net inflows. During this period, Bitcoin fell from about $82,500 (the recent high on May 6) to $74,305 (on May 23), a decline of about 10%, marking the lowest point since April 20. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: $IBIT) under BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE: $BLK) has seen its holdings decrease from a peak of about 812,000 BTC to about 800,000 BTC, still accounting for approximately 62% of total assets in U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs. CoinDesk analysts attribute this round of outflows to high U.S. Treasury yields (with the 10-year yield touching 5.01%) and systemic deleveraging driven by geopolitical pressures, rather than a weakening belief in Bitcoin's long-term logic.

BSC releases a report on quantum-resistant cryptography migration: transaction signatures have switched to ML-DSA-44, TPS testing has decreased by about 40%-50%

On May 14, BNB Chain released the "BSC Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration Report," stating that it has completed the migration testing for quantum-resistant cryptography for transaction signatures and the consensus layer, using the NIST standardized post-quantum signature algorithm ML-DSA-44 (Dilithium) and the pqSTARK aggregation scheme.The report shows that BSC has replaced transaction signatures from ECDSA to ML-DSA-44 and switched consensus voting aggregation from BLS12-381 to pqSTARK to address the potential threats posed by future quantum computing to the existing elliptic curve cryptography system. However, post-quantum signatures also significantly increase the on-chain data volume: the size of a single transaction has increased from about 110 bytes to approximately 2.5KB; the block size in a 2000 TPS scenario has increased from about 130KB to around 2MB; and the TPS in the testing environment has decreased by about 40%-50%.BSC stated that the current network bottleneck mainly comes from the larger transaction data propagation, rather than the consensus protocol itself. Meanwhile, the consensus layer aggregation still maintains high efficiency, with pqSTARK achieving a signature compression ratio of about 43:1, and the additional burden on validators remains within a controllable range. The report concludes that existing technology can achieve "quantum-resistant" deployment for blockchain, but future issues related to network bandwidth and data scalability still need to be addressed.
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