elections

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket. A large whale invested $86,680.99 in the event "Power Balance: 2026 Midterm Elections," betting on "Democratic Victory." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 67%.

U.S. President Trump stated that there will be no bombing of Iran before the midterm elections. Meanwhile, the U.S. is evacuating some non-emergency personnel from Saudi Arabia, reducing troop strength at some bases in the Middle East, and increasing aircraft carrier and amphibious forces. The Israeli military reportedly deployed dozens of fighter jets near the Iranian border this week before turning back, and the target list for strikes is also being updated.The U.S. State Department has ordered the evacuation of non-emergency government employees and their families only within Saudi Arabia, citing attacks on Saudi civilian targets related to Iranian-backed Houthi forces. Additionally, reports indicate that U.S. military forces have quietly reduced troop levels in Jordan, Qatar, and Kuwait in recent days. The Wall Street Journal states that the U.S. is dispatching another aircraft carrier to the Middle East, with a third carrier strike group coming from the Pacific, and is sending an amphibious assault ship carrying Marines. If the new forces arrive and existing vessels are not rotated out, the total number of U.S. naval vessels in the region is expected to exceed 24, currently around 20.Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is reportedly continuing to advocate for a large-scale strike against Iran, and U.S. officials even suspect that Israel is deliberately provoking Iran to fire. Israeli Channel 12 cited U.S. sources stating that earlier this week, dozens of Israeli fighter jets and refueling aircraft flew over Syria and Iraq, approaching the Iranian border, with a flight path highly similar to that of an attack on Iran, turning back before entering Iranian airspace, which Israel claims was a drill and a deterrent. Pakistan, Qatar, and others are intensifying mediation, but the U.S. demands discussions on the nuclear program, while Iran hopes to first discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with no breakthroughs in negotiations yet.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $50,000 in the event "Power Balance: 2026 Midterm Elections" for the outcome "Republican Victory." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this target is 8.82%.

According to Jinshi reports, from early September to mid-October, the super political action committee affiliated with President Trump invested $277 million to support Republican candidates in the midterm elections, while the committee also raised an additional $25 million during the same period.According to the latest documents submitted to the Federal Election Commission, donors include casino mogul Stephen Wynn, Blackstone Group's Stephen Schwarzman, and billionaire Diane Hendricks, among others, who made large donations. Since its establishment two days after Trump won his second term, MAGA Inc. has raised a total of $449 million. Reports indicate that this fundraising scale is unprecedented for a president starting a second term.This funding further strengthened the Republican camp's finances. Currently, the Republican Party and its three affiliated super political action committees have raised a total of $2.1 billion, far exceeding the $1.3 billion raised by the Democratic camp.

According to The Washington Post, ABC News, and Ipsos joint polling, President Trump's approval rating has dropped to 33%, with a disapproval rating of 66%, among which 52% of respondents expressed strong disapproval of his performance. This approval rating is an 8 percentage point decrease compared to the same period last year and is lower than at any time during his first term.With two weeks to go until the U.S. midterm election voting day, the Republican Party is facing a severe political situation. Polls show that as inflation pressures mount and voter dissatisfaction rises, the Democratic Party's support in the struggle for congressional control is increasing; for the first time in over a decade, the Democratic Party has gained higher voter trust than the Republican Party on economic governance issues.Overall results indicate that American voters have lost confidence in the president, are deeply concerned about Trump's decision to wage war on Iran, and are experiencing the economic impacts of war, particularly the impact of rising gasoline prices on household finances.

According to Cointelegraph, a recent poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos shows that a majority of American respondents oppose betting on U.S. elections and other government actions through prediction markets. The survey indicates that 69% of Democratic respondents and 61% of Republican respondents oppose using prediction markets to bet on election outcomes. The survey was conducted from September 30 to October 5, covering 4,506 adults nationwide.Aside from elections, even regarding betting on professional sports events, 43% of respondents expressed opposition, while only 29% indicated support. The prediction market industry is currently dominated by platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which allow users to bet on U.S. elections, government policy trends, and sports events, and has sparked multiple lawsuits regarding regulatory authority.The Trump administration is pushing for federal regulation of the industry through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while several states have expressed opposition to this. Previously, on October 8, Cointelegraph reported that 39 states and the District of Columbia submitted an amicus brief, indicating that the conflict between the CFTC and state authorities over prediction market issues has created a "national turf war" that cannot be resolved without a Supreme Court ruling.

Renowned trader Killa recently released a video predicting market trends before and after the U.S. midterm elections. His analysis summarizes the timing relationship between previous midterm elections and Bitcoin's bottoming out (2014: bottomed out about 70 days after the midterm elections. 2018: bottomed out about 40-44 days later. 2022: bottomed out almost during the midterm elections), suggesting that Bitcoin may form a weekly level bottom before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.He also presented two main scenario hypotheses: Early bottom scenario: BTC forms a low point before (or around) the midterm elections (possibly sweeping the current low or maintaining above 80k), then starts to rebound, first testing the 80k area, and may eventually surge to 95k. This would lead to a bullish fourth quarter, contrary to the common expectation of "risk-off after the elections." Classic risk-off scenario: first rises sharply (possibly sweeping the high point or even reaching 94-95k), then experiences a historically common sell-off/risk-off decline after the midterm elections (similar in 3 out of the last 4 occurrences).Killa advises investors to closely observe the price structure leading up to the midterm elections and react accordingly. If an early bottom is reached, they may hold bullish positions after the elections; if a high is reached and then starts to weaken, consider risk-off. Overall, he emphasizes that the pattern is accelerating in change and cannot simply replicate the historical experience of "must drop after the elections." Killa, as a quantitative trader focused on BTC, predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at 74,688 USD and turned bullish during the market-wide decline on June 5.

In September, the U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, while the core CPI increased 2.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, all exceeding market expectations. Following the data release, market bets on a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October rose to about 40%, up from around 20% the previous day.The Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25 basis points last month, marking its first rate hike of 2023. The next rate decision will be announced on October 28, just 6 days before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Inflation continues to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and economic activity remains resilient, providing grounds for further rate hikes.Economists from institutions such as Jefferies and Nationwide believe that there is data support for rate hikes in both October and December. Some analysts also expect that the Federal Reserve may consider the timing of the elections and potential economic vulnerabilities, choosing to delay until December. Historical data shows that the Federal Reserve rarely raises rates in October or November before midterm elections, and the market will be paying attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's remarks before entering the pre-meeting blackout period.

Crypto trader Killa posted that the most ideal trend for Bitcoin (BTC) currently is to continue rising before the U.S. midterm elections, building a bullish narrative and breaking through previous highs, followed by a pullback after the elections similar to historical cycles. However, this pullback may not form a new cycle low but rather establish higher lows.Killa stated that if BTC experiences a decline before the midterm elections, he believes the market is more likely to rebound to around $95,000 after the elections. Previously, nearly $2 billion in long positions had been liquidated, and there are about 3 weeks left until the U.S. midterm elections. The market may currently be experiencing a "maximum pain" scenario: after some market narratives have been broken, BTC rebounds before the elections, then reverses again putting pressure on traders in the opposite direction, ultimately leading the market to re-engage in risk deleveraging.Killa pointed out that in the past 4 U.S. midterm elections, there were declines in 3 of them 1-2 months after the elections, with historical samples showing a probability of about 75%. However, he mentioned that he still holds a 10x long position in BTC, as well as long positions established earlier at $62,600 and $76,400, and has not reduced his positions.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that U.S. President Trump is not expected to engage in any military conflict before the midterm elections. The diesel trade with Russia is beneficial for Americans, and we will utilize all legal authorities to conduct diesel transactions with Russia.

On October 8, the artificial intelligence company Anthropic updated its usage policy, adding prohibitions against election interference, weapon software, and surveillance. TechCrunch reported that the most notable change is the explicit prohibition against users subjecting the model to prolonged verbal abuse.Since the update in August, Claude has been trained to end conversations during ongoing harmful or abusive user interactions, and the new policy explicitly prohibits users from continuing such conversations. The policy states that this update applies only to extreme cases where users repeatedly treat the model cruelly without identifiable purpose, and does not apply to common user dissatisfaction, rebuttals, dark creative themes, or model testing and research.The usage policy also prohibits widespread deceptive activities, such as operating fake accounts or fabricating news organizations with Claude, and in the "Do Not Undermine Democratic Processes" section, it prohibits deceiving voters or disrupting elections. Reports indicate that this change occurred after Anthropic sought collaboration with well-known religious scholars, as the company attempted to persuade them that Claude might be conscious or have a soul in certain cases.

According to Cointelegraph, the crypto political action committee (PAC) Fairshake, supported by institutions such as Coinbase, Ripple Labs, and A16z, announced that it will support 32 incumbent members of Congress in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, including 19 Republicans and 13 Democrats.Fairshake plans to initially invest $6 million, providing $1 million in campaign support expenditures for 3 Republican and 3 Democratic candidates. Spokesperson Geoff Vetter stated, "We support pro-crypto candidates from both parties who advocate for American innovation." All 32 candidates voted in favor of advancing the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) in 2025, but the bill failed to pass a key Senate vote, and its future remains uncertain.Fairshake expects to invest over $100 million this year to support House and Senate candidates through advertising, with at least $30 million allocated for the Ohio Senate race, backing Republican candidate Jon Husted against Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown.Vetter previously stated that as of August, Fairshake held $122 million in cash, aiming to help establish the largest pro-crypto coalition of lawmakers in U.S. history.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the event "Power Balance: 2026 Midterm Elections" is currently among the hottest trades on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative pool size reaching 178 million dollars. The option with the highest market consensus is "Democratic Party Victory," corresponding to a winning probability of approximately 66.5%.

The White House has established a special task force on artificial intelligence, led by National Intelligence Director Clayton, with plans to draft an AI risk assessment report within 120 days, clarifying the federal government's regulatory responsibilities regarding related technologies.Meanwhile, Trump is making every effort to rally support for the 2026 midterm elections, emphasizing at a rally in Ohio that the Republican Party must utilize all voting methods to secure victory, and mentioning that investments from companies like Stratus, Electra.aero, and Bayer are a result of his tariff policies.Additionally, Trump urged Senator Tom Cotton to stop personal obstruction of the Sunshine Protection Act, calling for the Senate to vote immediately to end the biannual clock adjustments and directly lock in daylight saving time. Related legislative and industry regulatory dynamics are unfolding simultaneously.

Famous trader Killa stated that he does not believe Bitcoin will hit new lows again and is currently maintaining a long position. However, after the U.S. midterm elections, the market may still experience some de-risking behavior, so it is not the right time to establish hedge short positions in advance.Historically, Bitcoin's performance has been weak after every U.S. midterm election cycle. However, if Bitcoin continues to rise before the elections, traders can wait until the midterm elections are closer to decide whether to take action based on the price trends at that time.He believes that a more reasonable strategy right now is to continue holding long positions and observe market reactions before and after the midterm elections, and then consider whether to establish hedge short positions, rather than shorting in advance solely based on historical cycles.

According to a recent interview with Time magazine, U.S. President Trump stated that if a satisfactory agreement cannot be reached with Iran, the U.S. may intensify bombings against Iran after the midterm elections.Trump also acknowledged that the stockpile of certain types of ammunition has decreased and stated that arrangements have been made with defense contractors to replenish ammunition and expand production capacity.

The crypto media The Block reported that there are 36 days until the U.S. midterm elections. The cumulative trading volume on the U.S. presidential election market on the prediction market platform Polymarket US has surpassed $545 million, making election-related markets one of the largest by trading volume on the platform.Traders currently assign a 91% probability to the Democratic Party winning the U.S. House of Representatives, up from 73% in May. The aforementioned trading volume and probability are both derived from the U.S. election-related markets on Polymarket US.

According to a report by Reuters, if the Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives or the Senate after the midterm elections in November, they are expected to launch investigations into business dealings related to Trump and his family, focusing on the cryptocurrency, prediction markets, and investment businesses involving the Trump family, as well as companies that funded projects for the White House.The report states that controlling either chamber of Congress will give the Democrats more resources for committee investigations and subpoena power, with some investigations potentially starting as early as February next year. The subjects of investigation frequently mentioned by Democratic lawmakers include the venture capital firm 1789 Capital, in which Donald Trump Jr. is involved, as well as cryptocurrency companies related to the Trump family, but a final list of investigations has not yet been established.Additionally, Republican Senator John Curtis has previously called for an investigation into some of Donald Trump Jr.'s business relationships, believing that the commercial activities of the presidential family should be subject to consistent congressional oversight.