elections

According to a Reuters report, Polymarket's new Global Head of Research and Intelligence, Shana Bautista (former analyst at Coinbase, former investigator at the FBI), stated that as the U.S. midterm elections approach, Polymarket has established a system to identify unusual trading activities and will continue to prevent U.S. users from using its international platform to comply with the settlement agreement reached with U.S. regulators in 2022.In addition, Polymarket plans to launch a new webpage to publicly disclose the operational details of market integrity review mechanisms such as machine learning, blockchain analysis, and trading monitoring, and revealed that it has referred over 100 cases to law enforcement agencies.

Although Nvidia's upcoming earnings report and Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting are the main events of interest for investors this week, traders in the stock derivatives market have already begun preparing for potential volatility increases around the November U.S. midterm elections.Traders focused on volatility in the futures market linked to the VIX index have noted signs indicating that demand for hedging S&P 500 index volatility has increased before and after the elections. VIX futures expiring in September are currently trading at around 17.4, but October contracts have risen to 19, and November contracts have further increased to 19.7.Matthew Thompson, co-portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, stated, "The U.S. elections are approaching, and you are entering a time window where the elections will impact the VIX. You can already see this 'backwardation' in the term structure of VIX futures."A study by analysts at the Chicago Board Options Exchange Global Markets shows that since 1945, in 80% of midterm election years, actual volatility has been higher than the previous year, with an average increase of 3.5 volatility points. In years when both the White House and Congress are controlled by the same party, actual volatility increases by an average of 6 volatility points.

Fox News reporter Aishah Hasnie cited sources revealing that Trump will begin to utilize approximately $400 million from his personal super PAC "MAGA Inc" to support Republicans facing campaign pressure in the midterm elections this November.

Citi stated that it remains optimistic about the stock market performance and advises investors to consider increasing equity asset allocation if the market experiences a pullback before the U.S. midterm elections. It currently maintains an "overweight" view on U.S. stocks, believing that corporate earnings expectations are improving and the market liquidity environment is becoming more accommodative. Despite recent concerns related to artificial intelligence, there are no significant risk signals in the overall market.Citi continues to be optimistic about the U.S. stock market and believes that sector rotation may limit the market's downside potential. Historical data shows that the market often experiences a strong year-end performance following a weak phase before the U.S. midterm elections, suggesting that there may be opportunities to buy on dips currently.

A senior Iranian official stated that Tehran plans to attack oil export facilities in the Gulf region, targeting the Saudi Yanbu pipeline and the UAE Fujairah oil terminal, with the aim of driving up gasoline prices in the U.S. and influencing the midterm elections in November.The two facilities together handle about 5.5 million barrels of oil per day.

According to a report by Reuters, American companies have invested a record $517 million in the congressional elections for the House and Senate in 2026 over the 15 months ending in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing the previous high of $461 million during the two-year 2024 election cycle. The cryptocurrency, technology, and online betting industries contributed at least $294 million, becoming a major force in shaping the midterm elections.The Fairshake super PAC, primarily funded by Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z, had $193 million in funding at the beginning of the year and currently has about $130 million remaining; a16z has donated over $81 million to cryptocurrency and AI-related PACs. Elon Musk has invested over $90 million, and Meta has donated $65 million to four super PACs. The AI-related organization Leading the Future has raised $140 million, and Anthropic has donated at least $40 million through dark money non-profit organizations. Online betting companies like DraftKings and FanDuel have donated over $72 million.AdImpact expects total political ad spending for this round of midterm elections to reach a record $11.6 billion. Related industries are making unlimited expenditures through super PACs, affiliated PACs, and dark money non-profit organizations for advertising, voter mobilization, and more, with critics arguing that this amplifies the influence of niche issues such as cryptocurrency regulation, data center energy, and betting regulation.

According to Axios, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) warned in an internal memo to top AI companies that the negative public perception of data centers in the U.S. is harming the party's chances of retaining a key Senate seat in Ohio. The memo pointed out that Democrats have made data centers a core issue in defeating Republican Senator Jon Husted, and it has been effective, stating that if he loses and blames it on data centers, politicians nationwide will avoid future projects, making this issue a potential focal point of the current election cycle.The memo, titled "Ohio Data Center Risks," urges AI companies to improve perceptions by explaining "who benefits, who pays, and why the community should welcome" them. Currently, over 4,000 data centers are operating across the U.S., with more than 3,000 under construction or planned to support AI development. However, they are facing protests due to high electricity and water consumption, rising utility costs, limited job opportunities, and concerns about AI job displacement. Internal polling shows their unpopularity is close to that of nuclear waste and has become a proxy indicator of sentiment towards AI.Husted's opponent, former Senator Sherrod Brown, has invested millions in advertising, calling him the "Ohio data center spokesperson." A Fox News poll shows Brown leading by 8 percentage points. Republicans hope that AI companies can curb the backlash; otherwise, Husted's defeat will cause lasting damage to data center development nationwide. Democrats are also acting based on polling, with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro signing an executive order imposing strict restrictions on data center development.

The U.S. Senate has postponed the vote on the CLARITY Act until after the summer recess, increasing uncertainty about the bill's passage in the short term.The CLARITY Act had previously received bipartisan support in the House of Representatives and aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, clarify the responsibilities of different regulatory agencies, and promote the further integration of crypto assets into the U.S. financial system.North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis stated that with the vote postponed until September, the probability of the bill's final passage "may have decreased by 50%." Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, who is responsible for pushing the negotiations, indicated that discussions have been ongoing for nearly 11 months, the bill text has increased by about 300 pages, and it has responded to numerous amendment requests from Democrats, and it should now enter the voting phase.Currently, Democrats still oppose the existing version, with the main disagreement centered on the restrictions on government officials' interests in crypto assets. Democrats believe that the current version does not adequately limit federal officials' investments and promotion of crypto assets, nor does it require relevant personnel to fully divest from related holdings, while also seeking to grant state attorneys general stronger enforcement powers.Some Democratic and Republican lawmakers had previously pushed for the inclusion of stricter ethical oversight provisions, but negotiations are still ongoing. Democrats are particularly concerned about the connections between Trump and his family with crypto projects like World Liberty Financial.Previously, the crypto industry hoped the Senate could advance procedural voting before the summer recess to adjust political investments during the 2026 midterm elections based on legislative progress. Data shows that the crypto industry's main political action committee, Fairshake, held nearly $200 million in cash reserves at the beginning of this cycle.

According to BeInCrypto, El Salvador's two major opposition parties, ARENA and FMLN, have nominated Maytee Iraheta and Rafael Aguirre, respectively, as candidates for the presidential election in February 2027, challenging the re-election campaign of current President Nayib Bukele. Both candidates have not supported Bukele's Bitcoin strategy and have publicly criticized it as a financial failure.Bukele's New Ideas party has nominated him to run, with his approval rating reaching as high as 94% in recent polls, but this support mainly comes from improvements in public safety rather than Bitcoin policy—polls show that only 2.2% of Salvadorans believe Bitcoin is their biggest failure. Bitcoin is no longer mandatory legal tender in the country following the IMF loan agreement in February 2025, with the dollar resuming its status as the only official currency for daily transactions. However, the El Salvador Bitcoin Office continues to buy Bitcoin, acquiring about 1 BTC daily, and as of July 27, its holdings have risen to approximately 7,730 BTC. The IMF has repeatedly warned that the Bitcoin strategy poses financial and governance risks and has not significantly improved financial inclusivity for unbanked residents. The next president will decide whether this accumulation continues.

According to Public Citizen data, Ripple, Coinbase, and other cryptocurrency companies contributed $189 million to the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. Cryptocurrency companies accounted for 37% of the total $517 million in corporate political donations. Previously, during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, political donations from the cryptocurrency industry were approximately $160 million, and the cryptocurrency industry accelerated lobbying after the Trump administration took office, seeking to solidify the results of regulatory loosening.

According to Cointelegraph, crypto-related political action committees (PACs) and industry executives have invested over $500 million in the 2026 U.S. elections.Follow the Crypto data shows that crypto industry companies and related individuals have contributed over $320 million, and crypto-related PACs still hold over $245 million in cash; among them, Republican-related candidates/committees received about $127 million in support, significantly higher than the approximately $11.5 million for Democrats.

According to Cointelegraph, NYDIG research director Greg Cipolaro stated that if the U.S. Senate's cryptocurrency market structure bill does not pass before August, it may completely fail after the midterm elections. Cipolaro pointed out that the Senate Banking Committee passed the bill along party lines last week, but it needs 60 votes to pass in the Senate. Congress will be in recess from late July to early September, and then enter the pre-midterm election period, making it unlikely that Senate leadership will schedule a controversial 60-vote vote.If this window is missed, the most likely path is a post-election lame-duck session. If the Democrats control the Senate after the midterm elections, the current Republican-supported bill is unlikely to advance in the new Congress in January. Cipolaro stated that lawmakers face a choice: either accept an imperfect bipartisan framework or confront a drastically different legislative environment after the midterm elections. The White House's cryptocurrency advisors previously aimed to pass the bill by July 4, but Cipolaro believes a more realistic window is from June to early August.

According to Axios, American Republicans are increasingly dissatisfied with the flow of political donations in the cryptocurrency industry, demanding that the pro-crypto super PAC Fairshake, which holds about $165 million in funds, clarify its stance and focus on supporting Republican candidates in the 2026 midterm elections.Republicans pointed out that, against the backdrop of significant progress in promoting pro-crypto legislation such as the CLARITY Act, Fairshake has yet to announce specific election investment plans, which is disappointing. The points of contention include:Ohio Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown: Fairshake spent over $40 million in 2024 to defeat incumbent Senator Brown, but Brown's attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry has noticeably softened in recent years.New Hampshire Congressman Chris Pappas: His Stand With Crypto rating rose from "F" to "A" within 8 months, and Republicans initially expected Fairshake to focus on his campaign.In response, Fairshake supporters stated that it is still too early to speak out and emphasized that the PAC is bipartisan in nature, aiming to "reward supporters and punish critics," rather than unconditionally supporting a particular party. Some pro-crypto Republicans (such as the Winklevoss brothers) have established separate independent groups specifically to support Republican candidates.

According to The New York Times, the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) and its co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz have disclosed a total of over $115 million in federal donations during this midterm election cycle, surpassing George Soros ($102.9 million), Elon Musk ($85 million), and Jeff Yass ($81.8 million), making them the largest known political donor in this election cycle.Compared to the approximately $63 million in donations for the 2024 election cycle, this round of donations has seen significant growth. Notably, on November 6, 2024 (the day after the election), a16z injected over $23 million into a major super PAC in the cryptocurrency industry, indicating that its political strategy has a clear long-term intention.

According to CoinDesk, Jesse Spiro, head of government affairs at Tether, warned at the Consensus conference that the 2026 U.S. midterm elections could have a significant impact on the crypto industry and will be a key test of whether Washington's recent friendly attitude towards digital assets can endure.He pointed out that the industry has made progress over the past year, including the passage of the GENIUS Act and advancements in market structure legislation, but these achievements could be overturned by the elections. Spiro emphasized that the crypto industry should not be partisan, and the best scenario is to gain bipartisan support. Colin McLaren, head of government relations at the Solana Policy Research Institute, stated that the industry's political efforts are focused on "persistence," ensuring that Congress continues to advance priorities such as tax reform and developer protections.Mason Lynaugh, executive director of Stand With Crypto, said that the organization's nearly 3 million members view the elections as a "moment of accountability," with high enthusiasm among crypto voters that could sway results in closely contested elections.

A survey commissioned by CoinDesk of 1,000 registered voters in the United States shows that only 1% of respondents listed cryptocurrency as the most important issue in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, ranking almost last among all concerns. In contrast, cost of living (36%), jobs and the economy (13%), and Social Security and Medicare (11%) emerged as the most pressing issues for voters.The survey also revealed that American voters generally hold a negative view of cryptocurrency, with only 27% of respondents indicating they have invested in, traded, or used cryptocurrency, while another 27% said they might participate in the future. About 47% of respondents believe the Republican Party is more friendly towards cryptocurrency, while only 14% think the Democratic Party is more supportive of the crypto industry; however, in terms of "which party they trust more to manage cryptocurrency affairs," the Democratic Party slightly leads with 27% over the Republican Party's 25%, while 40% expressed distrust in both parties.Although cryptocurrency is not a core election issue, about 40% of respondents still indicated they are more inclined to vote for candidates who align with their views on cryptocurrency, demonstrating that the issue of digital assets continues to gain influence in American politics.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart published an article revealing that the market ETF is expected to be officially launched next week. Roundhill's relevant application documents have been submitted, with an effective date set for May 5. The first predicted market ETFs will use the election results of the Democratic or Republican control of the House of Representatives or the Senate as the underlying asset.

Kim Hyun-jung, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea's Digital Assets Special Task Force, stated that they plan to submit the basic law on digital assets related to stablecoins (Phase Two legislation) after the local elections and simultaneously advance the review of the bill in the subcommittee.He pointed out that there are still differences regarding issues such as the shareholding restrictions for major shareholders of exchanges, which need further discussion. At the same time, he believes that, in the context of the Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-sung's positive attitude towards stablecoins, relevant legislation is expected to progress. In addition, the task force is considering meeting with him after the elections to advance the design of the CBDC and the Korean won stablecoin system.

According to Bloomberg, political groups associated with the cryptocurrency industry have accumulated nearly $180 million in funding reserves ahead of this year's U.S. midterm elections, surpassing the funding levels of some major Republican super PACs.The report states that most of this funding has been carried over from last year, with the vast majority held by Fairshake. Fairshake's main backers include Coinbase, Ripple Labs, and Andreessen Horowitz.