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According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin failed to effectively break through the $80,000 mark, with BTC/USD dropping to $78,442 on the Bitstamp platform, a decline of about 1% for the day, after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh delivered a cautiously toned speech in Jackson Hole. In his speech, Walsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to the 2% inflation target and downplayed the significance of the recent decline in CPI and PCE data.Walsh stated that although these broad inflation indicators have significantly retreated from their highs a few years ago, the progress over the past two years has been relatively modest. The better-than-expected PCE and CPI readings this summer do not indicate that the underlying trend has materially improved. He also noted that the forward guidance, a conventional practice introduced during the financial crisis, "is now outdated" and will not return in the future. U.S. stocks were not weighed down by his remarks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both rising by about 0.5%.On-chain data shows that there is a dense resistance zone between the current spot price and $86,000, which suppresses upward momentum. QCP Capital analysis pointed out that even if the price breaks through, the derivatives market needs to support it by controlling funding rates and the growth rate of open interest. The key is whether the subsequent market movement is driven by spot participation or leveraged positions. As of the time of writing, BTC/USD has risen 26.35% this month, marking the best August performance since 2017.

U.S. short-term Treasury yields rose. Federal Reserve Chairman Waller emphasized in a highly anticipated speech that the Fed needs to curb rising consumer prices, alleviating some market concerns about its ability to combat inflation.During Waller's speech, short-term U.S. Treasuries were sold off, while long-term Treasuries rose. The yield on the two-year Treasury increased by 5 basis points to 4.28%, while the 30-year yield decreased by 1 basis point to 5.19%. These changes indicate that the market expects the Fed may need to raise short-term rates. Since Waller held his first press conference in June, bond traders have had doubts about his policy stance. At that time, Waller emphasized the need to lower inflation and showed a hawkish stance.Since the global economy reopened from the pandemic in 2021, U.S. inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target. However, in July, the Fed again kept rates unchanged, and Waller did not indicate whether a rate hike might occur this year. Subsequently, long-term Treasury yields surged as traders demanded higher returns to compensate for the risks posed by rising inflation.Waller warned on Friday that inflation has not shown meaningful signs of slowing and stated that policymakers must be confident that inflation is improving; otherwise, the central bank "has work to do." He also reiterated that policymakers will bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target and emphasized that this goal is clear and fixed.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Federal Reserve September Decision" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the sub-market "No Change" option's winning probability has experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from 69.5% an hour ago to the current 54.5% (a fluctuation of 15%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to Gate market data, since Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech, spot gold and silver have significantly retreated in the short term. Gold rebounded slightly after falling about 100 dollars from its high, reaching a low of 4530 dollars/ounce and currently reported at 4560 dollars/ounce; silver plummeted over 1 dollar during the day, hitting a low of 68.1 dollars/ounce and currently reported at 69.0 dollars/ounce.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated on Friday that if policymakers cannot be confident that inflation is "declining at a clear and sufficiently rapid pace" back to 2%, the Fed "has work to do." This suggests that if price pressures do not improve, the Fed may raise interest rates next.Waller made it clear that he still adheres to the Fed's long-standing policy path of managing inflation through interest rate adjustments. This significantly increases the likelihood of the Fed's next step being a rate hike, which could create a divergence between him and President Trump, who has long sought rate cuts. This statement essentially eliminated the ambiguity that had been left previously. At the press conference at the end of July, Waller declined to respond extensively to whether a rate hike was needed to address the inflation issue, which has significantly risen this year and has been above the Fed's target for more than five consecutive years.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated, "Although the PCE and CPI data released this summer were better than expected, they did not convince me that there has been a meaningful improvement in the underlying trend of inflation." "Market prices reflect that the market believes we will achieve price stability. I can assure you that the market's judgment is correct."Waller then stated that with inflation rates above 2%, the Federal Reserve's "current top priority should be prices." This highly anticipated speech by Waller comes at a time when there is criticism of its streamlined communication strategy. Economists and market participants believe that this strategy lacks clear articulation regarding the recent economic and monetary policy outlook.Waller's speech seems to address these concerns, as he elaborated more deeply than before on his views regarding the economic situation and the focus of Federal Reserve policy under his leadership. He said, "Let us also clarify another aspect of our goals: price stability will not be achieved automatically, and inflation will not necessarily return on its own. Achieving price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve." It is expected that Waller will not answer questions posed by on-site central bank officials and economists.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller warned that inflation has not shown meaningful signs of slowing down and stated that policymakers must be confident that inflation is moving in the right direction; otherwise, the central bank "has work to do." Waller reiterated that the Federal Reserve will bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target. He stated that this is a clear and fixed goal.Waller said, "My standard is that we must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward our target, and the pace must be clear enough and fast enough. Otherwise, we have work to do. That is our responsibility."Waller also stated that current financial conditions are not restrictive, and interest rates are the "primary tool" for the Federal Reserve to fulfill its responsibilities.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell, with market pricing indicating an increase in bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike following remarks by Fed Chair Waller.

Federal Reserve's Harker stated that the Federal Reserve should take action to raise interest rates, as waiting will only bring pain, and does not believe that financial conditions are in a tightening state.

Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, abbreviated as Dallas Fed, indicate that tokenized deposits and real-time blockchain transfers may weaken bank liquidity and limit their ability to issue long-term loans. The study was authored by Rosie Levy and Srini Ramaswamy.The research points out that of the $7 trillion in term risk borne by U.S. banks, approximately 80% is supported by the term characteristics of traditional deposits. If the weighted average term of deposits shortens by 10%, the banking system's term transformation capacity will decrease by about $580 billion, potentially increasing liquidity risk and pressure for fund outflows. Chris Turner, co-founder of Kula, stated that the speed of token transfers does not equate to the legal settlement of underlying financial claims. Tokens can be transferred through the blockchain network in seconds, but payments, ownership, and legal claims still rely on banks, custodians, clearing systems, and regulatory registries to complete the settlement.

Reto Cueni, Chief Economist of St. Gallen Group, stated in a report that the market may slightly raise expectations for an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September meeting. However, he pointed out that the market still mostly expects that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates, and St. Gallen Group itself currently does not believe there will be a rate hike.Cueni stated, "At present, we still maintain the judgment that the Federal Reserve will not further raise interest rates in the second half of this year." According to LSEG data, the money market currently estimates a 65% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the September meeting.

According to Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, known as the "Fed's megaphone," in his latest article, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh will face a core issue during his first major speech this week in Jackson Hole: whether the persistently high inflation in the United States is caused by one-time shocks such as tariffs and wars, or if the economy itself is still overheating.This judgment will directly determine the direction of interest rates and is currently the biggest divergence within the Federal Reserve. In the July meeting, three officials supported a rate hike, while other officials indicated the possibility of further tightening policies, but Walsh has not made a clear statement. Since taking office, he has deliberately reduced policy guidance, and now both the market and his Federal Reserve colleagues are waiting for him to systematically explain his judgment for the first time.The key to Walsh's term ultimately depends on how he explains why the previous policies failed to bring inflation back to 2%. If the policies of lowering interest rates and supporting employment over the past two years were fundamentally wrong because the labor market is actually stronger than the Federal Reserve judged, then Walsh needs to push for a reversal of interest rate cuts. However, this would conflict with the previous demands from Trump and Bessenet for further rate cuts.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, both in line with expectations.Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, stated: "The mild upside surprise in today's inflation data, along with relatively strong economic performance, is not something that investors or the Federal Reserve would welcome. However, this set of data is not sufficient to shift the decision-making balance for the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting."

According to CoinDesk, Dallas Federal Reserve economists Rosie Levy and Srini Ramaswamy estimate that if depositors' sensitivity to interest rates increases by 10%, tokenized deposits could reduce U.S. banks' ability to bear long-term interest rate risk by about $700 billion; if tokenization leads to a 10% early outflow of deposits, banks would lose about $580 billion in risk absorption capacity.Tokenized deposits place commercial bank money on the blockchain, supporting programmable payments and real-time settlement, but smart contracts and AI agents could automate deposit transfers, weakening deposit stickiness. Banks can respond by raising deposit rates, increasing reserves and government bonds, or relying more on term debt, but this could drive up credit costs for consumers and businesses.Research from Brazil's instant payment network Pix shows that more frequent use of the system increases banks' holdings of liquid assets like government bonds while reducing credit intermediation. Currently, tokenized deposits are still in the early stages, with clearinghouses and U.S. banks such as Bank of America, Citibank, and Wells Fargo developing interoperable networks that support interbank clearing, automated workflows, and 24/7 settlement.

The Federal Reserve discount rate meeting minutes show that 4 out of 12 regional Federal Reserve banks voted in July to support an increase in the discount rate.

On August 24, a portfolio manager at Fidelity International stated that the gold holdings of the fund he manages have doubled in the past three weeks, attributing this move to increased uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy. After raising the gold allocation in the fund to his self-imposed limit of 5%, George Efstathopoulos mentioned that he would consider increasing this limit if the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset continues to decline. Following the Federal Reserve's July meeting, investors have been selling long-term government bonds, and it is against this backdrop that George began to increase his gold holdings."My understanding is that this is due to the Federal Reserve's lack of credibility and the intensification of policy uncertainty," George stated. He also noted that the U.S. Treasury unexpectedly increased its repurchase of long-term bonds, which seems more like "manipulating yields rather than addressing the fundamental reasons for why yields are rising." "Today, the focus on gold is no longer on the rise in yields themselves, but rather on why yields are rising."

Federal Reserve's Kashkari downplayed market concerns about rising U.S. Treasury yields, stating that the market is functioning well and the recent surge is unlikely to affect discussions on monetary policy.Kashkari noted that trading in the U.S. Treasury market is proceeding normally, liquidity is ample, and the federal funds rate remains the primary tool for reducing inflation.