forecast

According to Jinshi Data, the U.S. January CPI data will be released today at 21:30. Various institutions have forecasted the U.S. January core CPI data as follows:U.S. January unadjusted core CPI year-on-year (previous value: +2.6%; Reuters expectation: +2.5%)Jefferies Group: +2.4%; Capital Economics: +2.4%; Dutch Bank: +2.5%; ANZ Bank: +2.5%;Danske Bank: +2.5%; Societe Generale: +2.5%; Bank of America: +2.5%; Citigroup: +2.5%;Lloyds Bank: +2.5%; Dekabank: +2.5%; Goldman Sachs: +2.5%; ING: +2.5%;Pantheon Macroeconomics: +2.5%; Scotiabank: +2.5%; Standard Chartered: +2.5%; Wells Fargo: +2.5%;Barclays Bank: +2.6%; HSBC Holdings: +2.6%; Nomura Securities: +2.6%; TD Securities: +2.6%;Morgan Stanley: +2.6%; UBS Group: +2.6%; UniCredit Bank: +2.6%; Regional Bank: +2.6%.U.S. January adjusted core CPI month-on-month (previous value: +0.2%; Reuters expectation: +0.3%)Jefferies Group: +0.2%; Capital Economics: +0.2%; Dutch Bank: +0.3%; ANZ Bank: +0.3%;Danske Bank: +0.3%; Societe Generale: +0.3%; Bank of America: +0.3%; Citigroup: +0.3%;Lloyds Bank: +0.3%; Deutsche Bank: +0.3%; Daiwa Capital: +0.3%; Dekabank: +0.3%;Goldman Sachs: +0.3%; ING: +0.3%; Mizuho Securities: +0.3%; Moody's Analytics: +0.3%;Wells Fargo: +0.3%; Pantheon Macroeconomics: +0.3%; Scotiabank: +0.3%; Standard Chartered: +0.3%;Barclays Bank: +0.4%; HSBC Holdings: +0.4%; JPMorgan Chase: +0.4%; Nomura Securities: +0.4%;Morgan Stanley: +0.4%; TD Securities: +0.4%; UBS Group: +0.4%; UniCredit Bank: +0.4%.

According to Jinshi News, TD Securities has postponed its prediction for the next Federal Reserve rate cut from March to June, still expecting a total rate cut of 75 basis points this year, bringing the terminal rate down to 3%. The agency anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement a 25 basis point cut in June, September, and December. TD Securities' Chief U.S. Macro Strategist Oscar Munoz stated that the anticipated policy easing is not due to a deterioration in economic conditions, but rather a result of monetary policy moving towards "normalization" as inflation gradually returns to target levels.

According to market news, Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its short-term price expectations for Solana in its latest research report, while significantly raising its long-term forecast.The bank has reduced its target price for SOL at the end of 2026 from $310 to $250, but expects it to reach $2000 by the end of 2030. The report notes that Solana's decentralized exchange activity is shifting from meme coin trading to SOL-stablecoin trading pairs, with its stablecoin turnover being 2 to 3 times faster than Ethereum, indicating different use cases; Solana's "ultra-low-cost, fast, and reliable trading model" will enable it to dominate areas that require high throughput and low transaction costs, particularly in the micropayment sector driven by AI protocols like x402.

According to Jinshi reports, Mitsubishi UFJ has lowered its forecast for the number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, expecting the first rate cut to take place in April.

According to Jin Ten, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that, overall, the economy is performing stronger than the predictions made in December.

The institutions expect the U.S. December ADP employment change to be announced tonight at 21:15 (previous value: -32,000):Spartan Securities: +16,000; Sumitomo Mitsui: +34,000; Zürcher Kantonalbank: +40,000; Deutsche Bank: +40,000;Allied Irish Banks: +45,000; Bank of Nova Scotia: +45,000; Pantheon Macroeconomics: +45,000; PNC Financial Services: +48,000;Deutsche Bank: +50,000; Goldman Sachs: +55,000; Bank of Montreal: +56,000; TD Securities: +60,000;Rabobank: +70,000; Helaba: +75,000; Mizuho Bank: +80,000. (Jin Shi)

Japanese Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: If the economic and price trends align with our forecasts, the Bank of Japan expects to continue its pace of interest rate hikes. (Jin Ten)

According to CoinDesk, a study by the prediction market platform Kalshi found that prediction markets outperform Wall Street consensus expectations in inflation forecasting. Over a data span of 25 months, their average error was 40% lower than the consensus forecast.The study pointed out that the advantage of prediction markets lies in their aggregation of diverse information from numerous traders based on economic incentives, creating a "wisdom of the crowd" effect that allows for a more responsive reaction to changing environments. These findings suggest that market-based predictions can serve as a valuable supplementary tool for institutional decision-makers, especially during periods of high uncertainty.Kalshi found that by comparing inflation forecasts on its platform with Wall Street consensus expectations, market-based traders had higher accuracy in predictions than traditional economists and analysts during the 25-month observation period, with this advantage being particularly pronounced during economic fluctuations.Specifically, the study found that from February 2023 to mid-2025, the prediction market's estimates of year-over-year changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had an average error 40% lower than the consensus forecast. When actual data deviated significantly from expectations, the advantages of prediction markets became even more pronounced, with accuracy exceeding consensus expectations by as much as 67%.

According to a report by DLnews, crypto market maker Keyrock's latest report indicates that prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have become leading indicators of key economic data, with traders incorporating them into models to gain an edge.Since the beginning of 2024, the monthly trading volume of prediction markets has surged from $100 million to $13 billion, a 130-fold increase. Although there are controversies regarding accuracy, research shows that Polymarket has an accuracy rate of 67% and Kalshi 78%, but their ability to reflect collective intelligence has made them increasingly popular among professional traders.

According to Jin Shi reports, Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that no rate cuts are included in the 2026 forecast (dot plot), believing that the economy will perform stronger with a GDP growth rate of about 2.5%, thus the policy still needs to remain restrictive.

According to Jinshi News, FOREX.com market analyst Fawad Razaqzada anticipates the U.S. non-farm payroll data for November, with the market expecting weak employment figures and the unemployment rate possibly rising to 4.5%. Any downside surprise could lead to expectations for the Federal Reserve's next rate cut being brought forward, thereby supporting gold prices.

The Federal Reserve plans to purchase $40 billion of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds each month, a scale that exceeds previous market expectations. This plan has triggered a series of revisions by major Wall Street banks regarding their debt issuance forecasts for 2026, while also driving down borrowing costs.Barclays estimates that the Federal Reserve's eventual purchases of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds in 2026 could approach $525 billion, significantly higher than the previously predicted $345 billion. The Fed's aggressive actions indicate its "tolerance for financing pressure is extremely low."JPMorgan and TD Securities currently also believe that the Federal Reserve will absorb a larger scale of debt. Bank of America expects that in order to supplement sufficient reserves and stabilize money market interest rates, the Fed may need to maintain this faster pace of purchases for a longer period.Strategists say these measures will help alleviate the market pressures that have accumulated over the past few months due to the Fed's reduction of its holdings. They anticipate that these purchase plans will be a favorable factor for swap spreads and SOFR-federal funds rate basis trading. On Wednesday, trading volume in short-term interest rate futures surged, and the two-year swap spread widened to its highest level since April, indicating that short-term market pressures have eased. (Jin Shi)

According to Jinshi reports, the FOMC economic projections show that the median interest rate forecast is completely consistent with September, while the GDP expectations for 2025-2028 have been raised, and the PCE and core PCE expectations for 2025-2026 have been lowered.

According to Jinshi reports, Michelle, the head of JPMorgan's Global Fixed Income division, stated that the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts seem to lean towards a hawkish stance.

According to Jin Ten's report, the economic projections released by the Federal Reserve's FOMC indicate that the median unemployment rate expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 4.5%, 4.4%, 4.2%, and 4.2%, respectively. In comparison, the expectations from September were 4.5%, 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.2%.

According to Jinshi, the Federal Reserve's median forecast maintains the prediction of a 25 basis point rate cut in 2026.

According to Jin Ten, Matthew Parry, Chief Investment Officer of Nomura Asset Management, stated in a memo that the latest data points to a slowdown in inflation and a weak labor market, making another rate cut possible. He noted that the new economic forecasts should reflect a moderation in inflation over the next few quarters, opening the door for another rate cut. Parry also mentioned that the current level of divergence among the Federal Reserve Committee regarding the monetary policy path is greater than ever before.