headwinds

Whale "Set 10 Major Goals First" (@jasonleo) shared a post late at night stating that the most noteworthy aspect of this round of BTC correction is not the decline itself, but "why it only dropped this much." He pointed out that recently the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 5.7%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was about 5.3%. Market expectations for another interest rate hike within the year are rising, while oil prices and inflation pressures are resurfacing, with multiple macroeconomic headwinds overlapping. However, BTC has only corrected about 5% so far.jasonleo believes that the price's reaction to news is itself important information. In the past, when a single macroeconomic headwind appeared, BTC could experience a decline of over 10%. Yet this time, under the pressure of multiple headwinds, the price has not shown significant damage, which indicates that the current upward trend has a certain resilience. He compared the current trend to BTC's previous bottom around $58,000, believing that both exhibit the characteristic of "weakened selling pressure after sufficient release of bad news," but the current market remains in a strong trend. He stated that he does not currently believe BTC will directly drop to $78,000 or even $74,000, and will observe $79,000 as a position to reduce holdings: if BTC falls below $79,000, he will begin to reduce holdings; if the daily close falls below $78,000, he will exit all remaining long positions and wait for the next entry opportunity; if the key position is not broken, he will continue to hold long positions.

According to Nikkei News, the rise in Bitcoin prices lacks momentum, as it was bought due to "dollar depreciation trading," but this is only a fleeting moment. Now, the expectation of interest rate hikes in the United States has become a heavy burden for Bitcoin. The market generally expects Bitcoin prices to peak in the fall.A factor to watch is the U.S. midterm elections in November. In years when midterm elections were held, the market tends to decline from September to the end of the year, with a drop of 45% in 2018 and an 18% decline in 2022.

According to Jinshi reports, Apple CEO Tim Cook stated that despite facing supply constraints and foreign exchange headwinds, Apple still achieved record sales in the third quarter.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated, "Macroeconomic headwinds continue to pressure the crypto market, which remains under strain in the current challenging environment for risk assets. The latest macroeconomic data complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making. Inflation remains stubborn, demand is still resilient, while the unemployment rate has begun to rise, making the overall economic situation increasingly complex. The latest non-farm payroll report also shows that layoffs far exceed market expectations, further exacerbating uncertainty. Meanwhile, market liquidity remains tight. This situation has even affected institutions like BlackRock, which recently had to limit investor redemptions due to insufficient available liquidity. Therefore, the Federal Reserve's policy balancing has become more difficult, and it is likely to maintain a wait-and-see attitude in the short term. This liquidity constraint is also impacting the crypto market. The net inflow of stablecoins to trading platforms has been negative overall since the beginning of this year. However, this trend seems to be showing signs of stabilization, which corresponds with Bitcoin attempting to stabilize around the current price level. For a more positive trend to emerge, the liquidity currently flowing out of the market (or funds directed towards assets like oil and precious metals) ultimately needs to flow back into the crypto market."

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that the recent performance of the silver exchange-traded fund SLV is "exaggerated to the extreme," but the inflow of funds has been quite limited, attracting only about $1 billion in the past six months, and investors should pay attention to the risks.In contrast, BlackRock's Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund IBIT, despite a price pullback of about 24%, has still recorded over $6 billion in net inflows, which is a "very positive" signal for Bitcoin's long-term prospects. This indicates that when the market is favorable, any ordinary ETF can attract funds, but the ability to continue receiving inflows during prolonged difficult phases is what makes an ETF truly "hardcore."

According to Jinshi News, some Wall Street strategists believe that strong corporate earnings will drive the rise of the U.S. stock market in 2026, and the risks surrounding the uncertain interest rate outlook will prove to be temporary. Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson stated that an earnings recovery is underway, U.S. companies enjoy better pricing power, and earnings expectations have bottomed out. He pointed out that although the Federal Reserve's guidance and the government shutdown are putting pressure on stock prices, these are merely temporary obstacles. Market attention is turning to the earnings report of Nvidia, which will be released next week.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States increased for the second consecutive week last week, indicating a weakening labor market amid the worsening economic headwinds brought by tariffs.During and after the COVID-19 pandemic, businesses generally hoarded workers in their efforts to find labor, but the increasing uncertainty brought by President Trump's tariffs has forced some companies to lay off employees.Economists expect that the number of initial jobless claims this month will exceed the range of 205,000 to 243,000 in 2025, mainly due to difficulties in adjusting data for seasonal fluctuations, and similar trends have also emerged in recent years. The rise in continuing jobless claims aligns with consumers' declining confidence in the job market.

ChainCatcher news, the Matrixport weekly report points out that macroeconomic headwinds and changes in global liquidity may lead Bitcoin into a consolidation phase. Although ETF inflows remain stable, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance may limit further gains.The report suggests that Bitcoin's upward momentum is more influenced by Federal Reserve policies rather than the launch of ETFs. Technical analysis shows that the "shooting star" candlestick pattern indicates that the mid-term upward trend may be nearing its end.In a context of low implied volatility, options are seen as effective risk management tools. Traders can capture upward opportunities through call options or protect profits with put options.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, an analysis team led by Gautam Chhugani at Bernstein stated that the regulatory headwinds for the cryptocurrency market have turned into tailwinds following Donald Trump's victory in the elections.The analysts also reiterated their bullish cycle target for Bitcoin to approach $90,000 by the end of this year and reach $200,000 by 2025, anticipating that the new "crypto-friendly" SEC chairman and Senate Banking Committee will accelerate regulatory transparency for the industry.

ChainCatcher message, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated on X: "The crypto market is facing multiple short-term, negative, and non-cyclical headwinds: Mt. Gox, U.S. government sell-offs, etc. But there are also several long-term, huge, and significant tailwinds: ETF inflows, courtroom victories, improvements in infrastructure, and the Lindy effect (the longer a technology or idea has been around, the greater the likelihood it will continue to persist in the future). These short-term, non-cyclical headwinds are suppressing prices. This is a positive for long-term investors."

According to Chain Catcher news and a report from Caixin, by checking the financial report of the Chinese concept stock Canaan Inc., it was learned that the company increased its holdings by 180 bitcoins in the second quarter of this year despite headwinds. As of June 30, 2022, Canaan Inc. held cryptocurrency assets worth 51.3 million yuan, including 346.84 bitcoins, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 107.74%. (Source link)