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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the El Niño phenomenon may weaken the commodity market, drive up food and commodity prices, and disrupt industries such as transportation. The IMF points out that this significantly impacts energy-importing countries, especially emerging markets with limited fiscal space, potentially widening the current account deficit and exacerbating exchange rate pressures.

The International Monetary Fund warns that since the last stability report in April, risks in the bond market have increased.

According to GMGN market data, the market capitalization of the meme coin BONER on the Robinhood Chain has dropped over 37% in 24 hours, currently reported at 26.2 million USD.According to on-chain transaction data, trader Him (@himgajria) sold approximately 286,700 USD worth of BONER today and currently still holds about 10.147 million BONER. The price of meme coins is highly volatile, please be aware of trading risks.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the predicted market on Polymarket for the event "LoL: Maryville University vs Disguised - LCS Playoff Qualification" has seen a dramatic fluctuation in the "Yes" option win rate for the sub-market "Both teams kill a dragon," rising from 50% an hour ago to the current 90% (a fluctuation of 40%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

Tom Lee, Chairman of the Ethereum treasury company BitMine, stated that the significant decline in the South Korean stock market may be transmitting to the cryptocurrency market.He mentioned the forced liquidation of margins on the brokerage side and pointed out that South Korean investors are an important holding group for crypto assets. He described this impact as short-term pain.

Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML is expected to announce its Q3 financial report on October 14. Driven by demand for AI chips, the market anticipates significant growth in revenue and profits compared to the same period in 2025. Wall Street analysts estimate Q3 revenue at 11.73 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 55%; earnings per share are projected to be 10.76 euros, nearly doubling from 5.49 euros in Q3 2025.ASML's Q2 revenue was 9.3 billion euros, higher than 7.7 billion euros in the same period of 2025, with net profit increasing from 2.3 billion euros to 2.9 billion euros. The company estimates Q3 revenue to be between 11 billion and 12 billion euros, with a gross margin of 55% to 57%, and has raised its full-year revenue outlook to between 43 billion and 45 billion euros.ASML is the only manufacturer in the world that commercializes extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment. Foundries such as TSMC, Intel, and Samsung rely on its equipment to manufacture advanced AI processors, and the company is also developing the next generation of High-NA EUV. Intel has processed over 1 million wafers using this equipment in research, testing, and manufacturing, while Samsung plans to introduce it into advanced DRAM mass production by 2028. The market expects ASML to increase the capacity of its existing EUV systems by about 30% by 2027.

On-chain derivatives protocol Derive has released a new proposal in its governance forum, aiming to expand its business into the regulated derivatives market in the United States. Community members can review the proposal and participate in the discussion.Derive is an on-chain derivatives protocol aimed at professional traders, offering trading products such as options and perpetual contracts, and employs an off-chain matching and on-chain settlement architecture. The proposal is currently in the community discussion phase, and the specific regulatory path, partners, and timeline will be based on the content of the forum proposal.

The NFT trading market Blur announced on X that its frontend will be deprecated on November 12, 2026, and this arrangement only applies to the frontend.Blur stated that the Blur market protocol will continue to operate on-chain, and BLUR will continue to control its fee switch.

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has re-established itself above the 1.1 annual average line and maintained that level, indicating that the average profit margin achieved by long-term holders over the past year is about 10%. Currently, the weekly average of BTC long-term holder SOPR is 1.25, and the monthly average is 1.16, both above the annual average, suggesting an improvement in market conditions and that long-term holders are starting to realize profits again.Darkfost pointed out that this change is worth comparing to the previous bear market: at that time, as the bear market approached its end, long-term holders also began to profit again. He believes that moderate profits in the market are a positive signal and may further boost investor expectations for the future market.

According to Gate market data, the decline in the U.S. stock market's storage and optical communication sectors has narrowed.In the storage sector, Micron Technology (MU) fell by 2.88%, Western Digital (WDC) fell by 2.11%, SanDisk (SNDK) fell by 5.68%, Seagate Technology (STX) fell by 3.62%, and SK Hynix (SKHY) fell by 3.67%.In the optical communication concept stocks, Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) fell by 6.47%, Coherent (COHR) fell by 7.14%, Credo (CRDO) fell by 5.69%, Lumentum (LITE) fell by 1.57%, and Nokia (NOK) fell by 2.99%.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Lorenzo Valente, the Director of Digital Asset Research at Ark Invest, stated in a video interview with Bitcoin Magazine that despite Bitcoin's lackluster performance and even decline this year, Ark Invest has not changed its long-term view, still considering Bitcoin over a five-year cycle and believing its development is still in the early stages. He also introduced Ark's Big Ideas report and discussed Bitcoin's role as digital gold and a permissionless currency.Valente pointed out that the rise of stablecoins has changed Ark's judgment on the emerging market Bitcoin narrative. He also talked about the rise of tokenized stocks and real-world assets, as well as the functionalities that tokenized stocks can achieve that traditional brokerage accounts cannot.Additionally, he mentioned the impact of rising interest rates, inflation, and AI on Bitcoin's macro outlook, and explored which tokenized business models will ultimately prevail, as well as the possibility of tokenizing U.S. assets for offshore markets.Regarding the market outlook, Valente provided Ark's perspective on Bitcoin's future over the next 12 to 18 months and discussed the four-year cycle and key points to watch moving forward. Ark's Big Ideas report set a Bitcoin price target for 2030, and the reasons why institutional funds are still on the sidelines were also among the topics he discussed.

According to CoinGlass data, the total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market in the past 24 hours reached 345 million USD, with long positions liquidating 193 million USD and short positions liquidating 153 million USD, affecting a total of 89,449 people.The largest single liquidation in the past 24 hours occurred on the BTC-USD trading pair of Hyperliquid, valued at 4.8883 million USD.

In the past three weeks, investors have withdrawn from U.S. mortgage bond funds at a historically rare pace, with the outflow ranking among the seven most severe since early 2021. As interest rates soared, the mortgage-backed securities index recorded its second worst monthly performance on record in September.Strategist Erica Adelberg stated that the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy may weaken banks' demand for MBS, and MBS supply is expected to decline before the end of the year.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently stated in an interview that Bitcoin's market capitalization could rise to $30 trillion in the next decade, with a path similar to the long-term expansion following the launch of gold ETFs.He compared two time points: in 2004, when gold ETFs were introduced, the gold market was approximately $2.5 trillion; by 2024, when Bitcoin spot ETFs are expected to launch, Bitcoin's market capitalization is around $2 trillion.Hougan believes that the long-term upside potential for Bitcoin remains significant, and the real risk does not lie at the protocol level or in quantum computing, but rather in whether investors can navigate multiple bull and bear cycles and maintain their holdings.

Trader Killa stated on platform X that the supply of short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin has recently reached "overheated" levels, a situation similar to the market's behavior after breaking away from the macro bottom in 2023, which could be another signal of a market bottom forming.Killa pointed out that after the supply of Bitcoin short-term holders reached similar highs in 2023, the BTC price continued to rise and maintained an upward trend in higher time frame (HTF) trends. The current market structure is quite similar to previous cycles, and investors should not overly rely on the fear and greed index to judge market direction. Killa indicated that market sentiment may remain irrational in the long term, and short-term sentiment indicators do not necessarily reflect long-term trends.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the market absorbed 220,374 BTC last week, while the net flow to exchanges remained negative at -3,863 BTC.He pointed out that despite the high inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges, the net outflow data indicates that buyer demand in the market is still stronger than selling pressure, showing that some funds are absorbing market supply.

The blockchain data platform Arkham stated on platform X that it has tagged the wallet addresses of Justin Sun across 10 blockchains, with on-chain assets totaling approximately $2.25 billion.Arkham added that in a ranking released in September, the platform's research team listed Justin Sun as the individual holder with on-chain holdings second only to Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto.

According to The Block, Morgan Stanley's Digital Assets Strategy Chief Amy Oldenburg stated that by 2030, the market size for tokenized real-world assets (RWA) will reach between $3 trillion and $10 trillion, a prediction that is "undoubtedly" accurate.She pointed out that the growth momentum within the industry is mutually reinforcing, with current institutional investors' attention and enthusiasm for participation in related fields continuing to rise, leading to a noticeable FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment in the institutional market.Previously, Morgan Stanley anticipated that it would begin supporting tokenized stock trading on its Alternative Trading System (ATS) in the first quarter of 2027, which is a delay from the previously announced plan for the second half of 2026.