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The cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex posted on X: Since mid-September, Bitcoin has been operating in the upper half of the Keltner Channel on Bitfinex's daily chart.Bitfinex stated that about two weeks ago, Bitcoin fell below the flattening middle line. If the price returns to the upper half of the channel and the middle line turns upward again, it may indicate a recovery of bullish momentum.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller: We will hold several more monetary policy meetings this year, which will be a key moment for forming clear conclusions. Policy judgments will be made at the meetings in October and December.

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that as of October 11, the current cycle's new Bitcoin buyers (First Buyers, FB) have accumulated 4.27 million coins, returning to levels seen in mid-August 2023. Compared to before the market started in August this year, new buyers have increased their holdings by approximately 400,000 BTC over the past two months, accounting for about 2% of the total circulation, with an average monthly increase of about 200,000 coins.In contrast, from January to August 2023, new buyers accumulated approximately 340,000 BTC over about seven months. Murphy pointed out that the current BTC price is about 2.6 times that of the same period in 2023, indicating that the capital required for new buyers to increase their holdings this round is significantly higher than in the previous cycle, reflecting stronger new demand. Additionally, the market in September saw the emergence of new momentum buyers (Momentum Buyers, MB) for the first time since January this year, which are investors who continue to increase their positions above their own cost basis. Murphy believes that the appearance of such buyers helps to enhance market confidence and drive upward trends, whereas significant increases in momentum buyers are usually rare during bear market rebounds.

Cryptocurrency market analyst CW stated that despite the recent decline in Bitcoin prices, demand-side indicators still show a positive trend. Futures demand has slightly retreated compared to the previous day, but the negative value of spot demand has narrowed, keeping overall demand in a relatively positive range.The spot demand, which had previously remained in negative territory, is approaching a positive value. Once spot demand turns positive, Bitcoin will experience strong upward momentum.

In a report released on Wednesday, JPMorgan analysts estimated that approximately $50 billion has flowed into digital assets this year, with an annualized rate of about $66 billion, up from the annualized level of $52 billion in May, but still about half of last year's pace. The report is led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Analysts estimated the inflow by aggregating data from cryptocurrency fund flows, CME futures implied flows, cryptocurrency venture capital fundraising, and purchases by listed mining companies and corporate treasuries, this time including private company treasuries, private mining companies, and government-related entities in the statistics.Analysts pointed out that the inflow in the first half of the year mainly came from Bitcoin purchases by Strategy and cryptocurrency venture capital financing, while ETF fund flows were a drag at that time, with significant outflows in May and June; since August, ETF fund flows have improved, turning positive for the year, but if calculated from the market correction starting October 10, 2025, the cumulative ETF fund flow is still negative. Institutional positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures at CME have increased over the past two months, with Bitcoin positions surpassing previous peaks and Ethereum positions nearing the October 2025 high. Offshore exchange perpetual contract leverage has fallen from the peak after the correction but remains above historical averages, and trend-following traders, including commodity trading advisors, have begun to rebuild long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Analysts also stated that Bitcoin mining companies have been net sellers this year, with net sales of about $1.8 billion, mainly from listed mining companies, which have shifted from hoarding coins to selling newly mined tokens, partially reducing their existing holdings to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure expenditures.

Darkfost posted on platform X that Bitcoin is approaching the average cost price of two types of holding groups: investors holding for 18 months to 2 years have an average cost price of about $88,350, while investors holding for 6 to 12 months have an average cost price of about $89,200.Darkfost pointed out that the cost price is the average holding cost of the group, not a natural support or resistance level; as the price approaches this range, the behavior of related investors may change, and this area can be seen as a potential risk zone. The group of investors holding for 6 to 12 months has overall been at a loss for nearly a year, with some investors possibly having bought in at market peaks; some investors may sell after breaking even, while others may continue to buy to lower their holding costs.

According to CoinDesk, after the U.S. August PCE inflation data came in lower than expected, Bitcoin briefly rose above $85,500, but the rally subsequently retreated as U.S. Treasury yields remained high.Dan Khus, Chief Analyst at LVRG Research, stated that the weaker PCE data reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again in October, leading the market to focus more on policy changes in December, which boosted risk appetite in the crypto market.However, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains close to 5.3%, and the 30-year yield briefly reached its highest level since 2002, limiting Bitcoin's further upside potential.In other crypto assets, HYPE rose about 3% to around $89, DOGE increased nearly 2% to around $0.1; ETH, BNB, TRX, and ZEC saw gains of less than 1%, XRP remained flat at $1.5, and SOL fell nearly 1% to around $119.

According to Lianhe Zaobao, U.S. President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This new round of macroeconomic uncertainty is putting pressure on risk assets, and Bitcoin has cooled off after several weeks of rapid gains, with its upward momentum stalling.In addition to geopolitical factors, the market continues to digest the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike measures and is also preparing for another possible rate hike in October. Since August 19, Bitcoin has risen by 28%, and now, Bitcoin is expected to achieve its best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2024.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the price of Bitcoin is currently around $83,000, with the outflow rate of Bitcoin from exchanges reaching its fastest level since October 2025.On-chain data shows that as of September 27, the average daily net outflow from exchanges over the past 7 days has reached 16,100 Bitcoins, reflecting a contraction in the supply of chips on exchanges.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin has confirmed a crossover above the cost basis of active long-term holders (LTH), indicating a shift in market momentum. Based on this, he judges that the Bitcoin bull market has been confirmed. This is the 5th occurrence of this signal in history, but he emphasized that there is still a possibility of misjudgment regarding the relevant indicators."Active LTH" is defined as long-term held supply that has moved at least once in the past 7 years, to exclude long-term dormant or illiquid BTC. Currently, over 3.5 million BTC that have been held for more than 10 years remain dormant, with this portion of supply increasing by an average of about 8,000 to 30,000 BTC per month. Since 2019, this indicator has only shown negative growth once, due to an early miner reactivating and transferring about 100,000 BTC, which is considered a relatively isolated event. Darkfost believes that this signal currently reflects positive changes in the Bitcoin market, with ETF liquidity inflows being one of the driving factors.

On-chain data analysis platform Glassnode posted on X: Bitcoin has flashed momentum signals that have initiated the last two bull markets, and the MVRV has once again crossed above its 365-day moving average.Glassnode stated that this is the same crossover that occurred at the beginning of each bull market in 2019 and 2023.

According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin network hash rate has rebounded after ending a recent downward trend, indicating that miner activity has somewhat recovered.

American billionaire Kevin O'Leary stated that the adoption of blockchain by large stock exchanges will be a "watershed moment" for the industry.O'Leary mentioned that he is buying new cryptocurrency positions while observing which chains companies across various industries choose, as Ethereum has failed to achieve significant adoption in the past year.

According to Fortune, Robinhood has recently tokenized stocks like AMC, which has led to public criticism from AMC's CEO. However, this model can reduce the cost and threshold for global investors to trade U.S. stocks. Blockchain-driven stock tokenization is reshaping the U.S. brokerage industry, and its impact may be similar to that of Napster on the music industry 25 years ago.Analysis points out that tokenized stocks still face issues such as voting rights, underlying stock custody, and whether token assets are fully backed. However, regulators have begun to promote the construction of relevant frameworks. Recently, Nasdaq also invested $100 million in blockchain financial company Payward, and the trend of stock on-chain is accelerating, making it difficult for threats or lawsuits to long-term hinder the development of this technology.

According to CoinDesk, Alexander Blume, founder and CEO of the cryptocurrency asset management company Two Prime, stated that Bitcoin's recent rebound still has room to grow, mainly because institutional investors who have sold volatility are facing position pressure. If the price continues to rise, short sellers being forced to cover their positions will further fuel the upward trend. He pointed out that the current market structure is healthy, with funding rates not showing signs of overheating. The rebound is not driven by speculation, and the continuous inflow of spot ETFs and corporate buying provides substantial support.Although implied volatility has risen from 23%-24% to over 40, it remains low by historical standards. If call option sellers are forced to close their positions, it could accelerate the upward movement. Blume believes that if the macro environment stabilizes, BTC has already formed a bottom around $60,000, with the biggest risk coming from a complete collapse of risk assets. The generally pessimistic market sentiment means that even moderate positive news could have an outsized impact.On the mining front, MARA recently chose to collateralize its BTC holdings to obtain a $600 million loan from Coinbase and Two Prime, rather than selling directly, in order to retain upside potential. Mining companies are diversifying their AI transformation strategies, with Cipher Mining and TeraWulf actively shifting towards AI infrastructure, while CleanSpark and MARA explore AI and power sectors while maintaining their original businesses. Blume expects the Trump administration to push for interest rate cuts, and adjustments to the PCE index may lower inflation readings, which could improve interest rate prospects.

Gate Research Institute released the August 2026 cryptocurrency and TradFi quantitative report. BTC and ETH rose approximately 25.1% and 32.6% respectively during the month. Gate contract data shows that the open interest amount for BTC increased from about $4.02 billion to $4.38 billion, while ETH rose from about $2.46 billion to $2.75 billion, with increases of approximately 9% and 12.1% respectively.The funding rates for both remained moderately positive most of the time, with long positions dominating the number of accounts, but the active trading long-short ratio was below 1. The TradFi market also rose in sync, with NAS100 increasing about 4.2% during the month, outperforming US500 and US30, while large tech stocks showed a divergence in trends.The report compared four models: moving average trends, trend momentum, Donchian breakout, and RSI mean reversion. Backtesting results showed that the 100-day moving average and 20-day price momentum strategies achieved positive cumulative returns on BTC, ETH, US500, and NAS100, with a median Sharpe ratio of 0.64 and a median maximum drawdown of 8.71%. The report includes Gate TradFi's US500 and NAS100 in cross-asset observations and evaluates market heat by combining Gate contract long-short ratios, funding rates, and open interest data. The execution over the next one to three months will focus on trend confirmation, volatility rebalancing, leverage limits, and cooling off abnormal liquidations.

On August 28, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $201.9 million, ending a nine-day streak of net inflows since mid-August. According to SoSoValue data, this reversal reduced the cumulative net inflow to approximately $55.1 billion, with total net assets of about $93.9 billion. Decrypt's ETF flow tracker turned the Bitcoin sentiment reading to "bearish" on that day.The previous strong performance was particularly remarkable: the Bitcoin ETF had accumulated inflows of $2.8 billion during an eight-day rally, during which Bitcoin briefly tested the $80,000 mark and recorded the largest single-day inflow since May, with a peak single-day inflow exceeding $600 million on August 20. In contrast, the Ethereum ETF showed no signs of weakness, with a net inflow of $102.1 million on August 28, extending its streak of inflows to ten days, with a cumulative net inflow of approximately $12.9 billion and total net assets of about $13.8 billion.As the flow of funds diverged, Bitcoin fell back due to hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, after a rally that had pushed prices close to $80,000. Over the weekend, Bitcoin rebounded to around $79,000. Analysts pointed out that the single-day outflow relative to the fund's cumulative size remains moderate, and the interruption of the rally may not necessarily indicate a widespread reversal in institutional demand.

According to DefiLlama data, since the end of July and the beginning of August, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has regained upward momentum, currently reported at $30.4564 billion, with a growth of 0.48% over the past week.Among the leading stablecoins, USDC and USD1 are the main contributors to the increase in supply over the past week, with USDC increasing by 0.76% and USD1 increasing by 3.71%. The market share of USDT is currently reported at 60.21%.

The "Realized Cap Impulse" indicator for Bitcoin has recently ended a continuous 93-day negative state and has turned positive for the first time, marking the longest reversal signal after a capital contraction cycle since the bear market of 2022.This indicator measures the momentum of changes in the realized market capitalization by tracking the changes in realized cap, combined with factors of Bitcoin supply and price, to assess whether the flow of tokens with actual economic significance in the market is driving capital base expansion. The positive shift in the indicator does not merely reflect a price increase but indicates that the flow of funds within the Bitcoin network is changing.Data shows that the indicator broke above the zero axis on August 20 when the BTC price was around $73,000 and has maintained positive values for 8 consecutive days. Currently, the BTC price has risen to about $78,900, an increase of approximately 8% during this period.As of the latest, the indicator reading is 0.198, below the peak of 0.226 reached on August 26. Historical data indicates that similar signals at the end of bear markets have been accompanied by significant rebounds in Bitcoin: after the indicator turned positive in September 2015, Bitcoin rose about 160% within a year; after March 2019, it increased about 173% in 90 days; and after January 2023, it rose about 45% in 90 days, with a yearly increase of 104%.However, the realized cap momentum indicator is not an absolute signal of a cycle bottom. Similar positive shifts occurred in early 2018 and 2022, but the market did not immediately enter a sustained upward phase afterward. Analysts believe that the indicator's continued positive value, confirmed by price trends, is more valuable than a single-day breakthrough above the zero axis.