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Analysis: The Bitcoin "Realized Market Value Momentum Indicator" has turned positive after 93 days, signaling a recovery in on-chain capital flow

The "Realized Cap Impulse" indicator for Bitcoin has recently ended a continuous 93-day negative state and has turned positive for the first time, marking the longest reversal signal after a capital contraction cycle since the bear market of 2022.This indicator measures the momentum of changes in the realized market capitalization by tracking the changes in realized cap, combined with factors of Bitcoin supply and price, to assess whether the flow of tokens with actual economic significance in the market is driving capital base expansion. The positive shift in the indicator does not merely reflect a price increase but indicates that the flow of funds within the Bitcoin network is changing.Data shows that the indicator broke above the zero axis on August 20 when the BTC price was around $73,000 and has maintained positive values for 8 consecutive days. Currently, the BTC price has risen to about $78,900, an increase of approximately 8% during this period.As of the latest, the indicator reading is 0.198, below the peak of 0.226 reached on August 26. Historical data indicates that similar signals at the end of bear markets have been accompanied by significant rebounds in Bitcoin: after the indicator turned positive in September 2015, Bitcoin rose about 160% within a year; after March 2019, it increased about 173% in 90 days; and after January 2023, it rose about 45% in 90 days, with a yearly increase of 104%.However, the realized cap momentum indicator is not an absolute signal of a cycle bottom. Similar positive shifts occurred in early 2018 and 2022, but the market did not immediately enter a sustained upward phase afterward. Analysts believe that the indicator's continued positive value, confirmed by price trends, is more valuable than a single-day breakthrough above the zero axis.

Garrett Jin: Bitcoin at $80,000 to $82,500 is a key resistance zone, and the short squeeze momentum is hard to sustain

"BTC OG insider whale" agent Garrett Jin analyzed that Bitcoin's recent breakthrough of $70,000 was driven by multiple positive factors, including the expansion of the U.S. Treasury's bond buyback, the SEC's proposed regulatory framework for crypto assets, and the White House crypto summit. The current price has entered a dense area of trapped positions between the latter half of $60,000 and the lower range of $80,000, with the first resistance level showing signs of loosening.Garrett Jin pointed out that over the past two months, a large amount of new holding costs has accumulated in the area just above $60,000, providing bottom support for this breakthrough. Although the short squeeze triggered by short liquidations may push Bitcoin above $80,000 in the short term, the $80,000 to $82,500 range is a key resistance area to watch, and the short squeeze momentum is difficult to sustain in the long term. If effective absorption of chips can occur below $80,000 before the breakthrough, it would be more beneficial for the healthy development of subsequent trends.On the same day, SK Hynix announced the largest stock buyback and cancellation plan in South Korea's history, committing to return at least 50% of the expected free cash flow before 2027 to shareholders. The stock price surged more than 10% at one point, triggering the buyer's circuit breaker mechanism for the KOSPI index. Analysts believe this move can alleviate market concerns about the declining risk appetite for South Korean semiconductor stocks, but it cannot change the cyclical trend of the memory industry itself.

Data: Leverage rather than spot demand drives Bitcoin, value and momentum buyers are still on the sidelines

According to a research report by NYDIG, Bitcoin fell by 13.4% in the second quarter of 2026, with the year-to-date decline expanding to 32.9%. In contrast, the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 27.7%, and tech stocks increased by 43.5%, indicating that this round of decline is not due to macro risk aversion, but rather specific supply pressures unique to Bitcoin.The core pressure comes from Strategy (MSTR) launching the "Digital Credit Capital Framework," authorizing the sale of approximately $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to cover capital structure obligations, marking a shift of the largest historical marginal buyer from continuous accumulation to active monetization, with the DAT complex overall transitioning from a demand engine to a supply risk. In terms of ETFs, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $4.9 billion in the second quarter, but Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Trust attracted $364.8 million in inflows against the trend, showing that distribution channels remain competitive.In the derivatives market, amid weak spot demand and continued outflows from ETFs and stablecoins, the positive funding rate combined with a rebound in open interest indicates that leveraged long positions are rebuilding, posing a risk of passive liquidation triggering a new round of declines. Bitcoin has currently fallen 54.3% from its historical high of $126,000 set on October 6, 2025, referencing the cycles of 2018 and 2022 (with a gradually narrowing decline of about 70%).
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