pce

According to Jinshi reports, the CICC research report points out that several recent U.S. inflation data have exceeded expectations, the employment market is stabilizing, and there has been a sell-off in bonds, intensifying market concerns about inflation. It is expected that the U.S. PCE inflation will remain above 3.5% for the year, with core PCE inflation above 3%, both significantly higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% policy target. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve's policy stance will be more cautious, and further interest rate cuts may be difficult within the year.

According to Jinshi reports, the annualized quarterly PCE price index for the first quarter in the United States is 4.5%, higher than the market expectation of 3.8% and the previous value of 2.9%.

According to Jinshi reports, the annual core PCE price index in the United States for March is 3.2%, in line with market expectations, with a previous value of 3%.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expects the PCE inflation rate to reach 3.5% in March.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the overall PCE inflation in March may reach 3.5% year-on-year.

According to Jinshi reports, Citigroup economists have preliminarily estimated that the month-on-month increase in March's core PCE, combined with today's CPI data, will be 0.3%.This level is higher than the 2% year-on-year target set by the Federal Reserve, but better than the 0.4% increase in February. The Citigroup team pointed out that they still need to incorporate PPI data to make a more accurate prediction of PCE.

The latest U.S. PCE inflation data largely met expectations, easing market uncertainty, and Bitcoin's price stabilized after previously reaching around $73,000. Data shows that the core PCE year-on-year is 3%, and month-on-month is 0.4%. The market is also influenced by the easing situation between the U.S. and Iran, but analysts point out that the current PCE data has not yet reflected potential energy price shocks.Although the inflation data did not trigger significant market fluctuations, investors remain cautious about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for this year. Economist Mohamed El-Erian stated that compared to PCE, the upcoming CPI data to be released this week will have a more critical impact on the market, especially against the backdrop of oil price fluctuations. On the trading front, the market remains in a volatile range, with liquidity mainly concentrated in the $69,000 to $76,000 range. Trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that as long as the key support range holds, Bitcoin is expected to start a new round of upward momentum, targeting $80,000.

According to Jinshi, the annual rate of the U.S. core PCE price index for February recorded 3%, down from 3.1% last month, in line with market expectations. The monthly rate of the U.S. core PCE price index for February remained unchanged at 0.4%, also in line with expectations.

According to Jinshi reports, the annual rate of the U.S. February PCE price index is 2.8%, in line with market expectations, with the previous value being 2.8%.

According to Jinshi, the U.S. February PCE report will be released at 20:30 Beijing time, and service prices are expected to continue supporting core inflation, while commodity prices may rebound significantly. U.S. inflation is facing multiple pressures, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates "later and less" may be further strengthened.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expects the February PCE inflation to be 2.8%, with core PCE at 3%.

According to Jinshi reports, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most FOMC participants believe that PCE inflation and core PCE inflation face high uncertainty, with risks tilted to the upside.

According to Jin Shi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC released economic forecasts, expecting the median core PCE inflation expectations at the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 to be 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2%, respectively. In contrast, the expectations in December were 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2%.

According to Jinshi reports, "the Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that the core PCE annualized for 1 month is 4.5%, for 3 months is 3.7%, and for 6 months is 3.1%; the overall personal consumption expenditures annualized for 1 month is 3.4%, for 3 months is 3.5%, and for 6 months is 3.2%.

According to Jinshi News, the U.S. financial website investinglive stated that the core PCE has recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.4% for two consecutive months, which is a concern for the doves within the Federal Reserve. If similar data appears for a few more months, the inflation rate will quickly approach 2%. In addition, these data will still be included in the year-on-year calculation over the next 10 months, and the impact of energy prices is also about to arrive.

According to Jinshi reports, the year-on-year revision of the core PCE price index for the United States in the fourth quarter is 2.9%, the same as the previous value of 2.9%.

According to Jinshi reports, the U.S. January PCE price index month-on-month is 0.3%, consistent with market expectations of 0.3%, and the previous value was 0.4%.

According to Jinshi, the year-on-year core PCE price index in the United States for January is 3.1%, in line with market expectations, with a previous value of 3%.

According to Jinshi reports, at 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the United States will announce the year-on-year core PCE price index for January, with market expectations for a moderate rebound. The core PCE has rarely surpassed the CPI, and inflation may raise a "hidden alarm," putting the expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut to the test.

According to Jinshi, Federal Reserve's Musalem stated that the government shutdown could cause the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to shift downward and may last until April. He pointed out that Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is a better measure.