pce

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, both in line with expectations.Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, stated: "The mild upside surprise in today's inflation data, along with relatively strong economic performance, is not something that investors or the Federal Reserve would welcome. However, this set of data is not sufficient to shift the decision-making balance for the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting."

The U.S. July PCE price index month-on-month was 0.2%, higher than the expected 0.1%, and the previous value was -0.1%.

The U.S. July core PCE price index year-on-year is 3.3%, expected 3.30%, previous value 3.30%.

The annual PCE price index for the U.S. in July was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, and unchanged from the previous value.

At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The market expects the overall PCE in July to rise by 0.1% month-on-month, with the year-on-year increase falling from 3.7% in June to 3.6%; the core PCE is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2% month-on-month, while year-on-year it remains at 3.3%, marking the 65th consecutive month above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.It is noteworthy that rising prices in the AI industry chain, high valuations in the stock market pushing up portfolio management fees, and the situation in the Middle East leading to increased energy costs may all become potential drivers of core inflation. Goldman Sachs predicts that stock market valuation factors alone could contribute approximately 0.11 percentage points to the month-on-month increase in core PCE for July.What draws more market attention is that the Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to comprehensively adjust the PCE statistical methods by the end of September, which may involve adjustments to the price calculations for categories such as computer hardware, stock portfolio management, and legal services, and may also retroactively revise historical data, increasing the difficulty of interpreting inflation data.Currently, the market's views on the Federal Reserve's policy path in September are increasingly divided. CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has risen to 40.1%. The market is also waiting for this week's Jackson Hole annual meeting to seek the latest signals from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation and subsequent interest rate policies.

According to Jinshi, the core PCE price index in the United States for June was 0.1%, lower than the market expectation of 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.3%.

According to Jinshi reports, the annualized quarterly core PCE price index for the second quarter in the United States is 3.4%, lower than the market expectation of 3.5%, and the previous value was 4.4%.

According to Jinshi, the annual rate of the U.S. June PCE price index is 3.7%, in line with market expectations, and the previous value was 4.1%.

According to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs' latest research report shows that inflationary pressures in the United States are spreading from a few industries to a broader range of sectors. Although the current inflation level has not yet reached the peak of 2022, the coverage of rising prices is expanding, posing greater challenges for Federal Reserve policy. Goldman Sachs economist Jessica Rindels analyzed the degree of inflation diffusion based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve focuses on, using a six-month annualized change rate.The data shows that compared to the average inflation level from 1990 to 2019, the pressure index for inflation categories exceeding 3% has reached about "6," while this index was "10" at the peak of inflation in 2022.The report points out that areas such as audio-visual equipment, financial services, healthcare, and transportation have become significant sources of current price increases. Meanwhile, housing rent inflation, which has a high weight in the PCE, is expected to fall below 3% in the fourth quarter of this year, potentially becoming an important factor in alleviating inflationary pressures.Goldman Sachs' analysis resonates with the recent concerns of new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh regarding the "diffusion" of inflation. Warsh stated that preventing price increases from spreading to more sectors of the economy is an important task for the Federal Reserve. However, unlike the more explicit policy communication style of former Chairman Powell, Warsh currently refuses to provide specific guidance on interest rate paths.Jeremy Schwartz, a senior U.S. economist at Nomura Securities, stated that the Federal Reserve is reducing its forward guidance to the market, and this policy uncertainty has increased concerns on Wall Street. Meanwhile, hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve are rising. Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan has expressed support for moderate interest rate hikes, believing that the current economic resilience does not match the inflation risks.

According to Jinshi reports, Bank of America Securities analysts stated in a report that the overall CPI in the United States may decrease by 0.09% month-on-month in June, partly due to a significant drop in gasoline prices. However, the core inflation rate is expected to remain high at 0.28% month-on-month or 2.9% year-on-year, partly because demand related to the World Cup is pushing up inflation in the service sector.Based on this forecast, analysts expect core PCE to be slightly stronger than CPI again.

According to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs stated that the combined effect of rising prices for memory, software, and electricity brought about by artificial intelligence is contributing more than 0.2 percentage points to the year-on-year inflation of the U.S. core PCE, and this contribution is expected to rise to 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year.

According to Jinshi reports, after the US PCE data showed moderate performance, US Treasury bonds erased most of their declines.

According to Jinshi, the annual core PCE price index in the United States for May recorded 3.4%, meeting market expectations, marking a new high since October 2023.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has repeatedly found support around $59,000 in June, a position that has replaced $60,000 as a more critical technical support level. On Wednesday, as the decline accelerated, the price briefly approached $59,000 before rebounding to $61,000, a similar trend that occurred on June 5, when the price rebounded to $67,000 after stopping the decline near $59,000.The Federal Reserve's most closely watched PCE data will be released on Thursday evening, with core PCE expected to rise year-on-year by 3.3%-3.4%, the highest since October 2023. If the data exceeds expectations, it will confirm that the rise in inflation is not a temporary phenomenon, potentially strengthening interest rate hike expectations and pushing the dollar index further up, putting pressure on cryptocurrencies; if it falls short of expectations, it may alleviate concerns about interest rate hikes, providing support for Bitcoin's rebound from $59,000.

According to Jinshi reports, "Federal Reserve mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that some forecasters converting U.S. PPI and CPI data into May PCE expect that the U.S. core PCE will record a strong reading, with a significant gap compared to CPI. It is anticipated that when announced on Thursday, the year-on-year growth rate of core PCE will reach 3.4%.

According to Jinshi, Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn stated in a report that the upcoming U.S. PCE data and non-farm payroll report will determine whether the current rise of the dollar has further room to grow.She pointed out that if inflation and labor market data continue to support the narrative that interest rates will remain high for a longer period, the dollar should continue to receive support. Conversely, if price pressures begin to ease more quickly, the market may question whether the current interest rate expectations are too aggressive.

Today, Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang pointed out in an online live broadcast themed "Logic of Gold Trend Analysis" that this week's market focus will be on the U.S. May PCE Price Index and the final value of Q1 GDP.Previously, CPI and PPI data reached new highs, non-farm employment showed robust performance, and signals of inflation rebound combined with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance have led the market to gradually digest rate hike expectations. He emphasized that Waller has clearly stated that controlling inflation is the top priority, and the interest rate dot plot shows that rate hikes in 2026 are becoming an internal consensus, and the market needs to prepare for a higher and longer-lasting interest rate environment.Regarding the gold trend, Lewis Huang stated that due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts driving up energy prices, the overall year-on-year increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index may rise to 3.4% or even higher. If the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rises unexpectedly, the U.S. Dollar Index will gain strong momentum, while non-interest-bearing assets like gold will face weakening risks. He suggests that CFD traders closely monitor inflation expectation differentials and flexibly capture opportunities for U.S. dollar bullishness or guard against gold downturns.

The latest market report from QCP indicates that Bitcoin surged past $65,000 after Strategy announced an increase in cash reserves and the purchase of an additional 520 Bitcoins, improving short-term market sentiment.At the same time, there was a noticeable rotation within the U.S. stock market, with the Nasdaq weakening and small-cap stocks strengthening, reflecting that risk appetite has not broadly weakened.