short-term

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on platform X, pointing out that the profit ratio of short-term Bitcoin holders (STH SOPR) has recently shown noteworthy changes. This indicator measures the profit realization of short-term holders who have held for less than 6 months, and it has now risen above 1, reaching approximately 1.01, marking the first time in over a year that it has entered the profit zone.Darkfost noted that during the last bear market, short-term Bitcoin holders remained in an average loss state for about a year, while the current level is significantly higher than the brief reaction in May of this year, indicating that the optimism among short-term holders is improving. A healthy market should not avoid profit-taking but rather needs to realize profits continuously and moderately, especially for short-term holders, who are the most active and sensitive group in the market. If the 30-day moving average of STH SOPR can maintain its position in the current area, it will be a very positive signal, as historically, every bull market has been accompanied by continuous profit realization from short-term holders.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on platform X, pointing out that the profit margin of short-term Bitcoin holders (STH SOPR) has recently shown noteworthy changes. This indicator is used to measure the profit realization of short-term holders who have held for less than 6 months, and it has now risen above 1, reaching approximately 1.01, marking the first time in over a year that it has entered the profit zone.Darkfost noted that during the last bear market, short-term Bitcoin holders remained in an average loss state for about a year, while the current level is significantly higher than the brief reaction in May of this year, indicating that the optimism among short-term holders is improving. A healthy market should not avoid profit-taking but rather needs to realize profits continuously and moderately, especially for short-term holders, who are the most active and sensitive group in the market. If the 30-day moving average of STH SOPR can maintain in the current area, it will be a very positive signal, as historically, every bull market has been accompanied by short-term holders continuously realizing profits.

Serenity posted a reminder that the fundamentals of storage shortages have not changed and may even become more acute. The market will shift from one bottleneck sector to another, but the companies themselves remain unchanged; what changes are the valuations and narratives. Serenity added several pieces of evidence suggesting that the storage supply-demand gap may be worse than the market expects: Nikkei reported that Japanese distributors claim the storage demand gap has reached 40% to 60%, and prices may rise by about 50% by the end of the year; SpaceX has not accounted for the approximately $1.3 trillion capital expenditure from ultra-large cloud providers, and total spending may exceed expectations; SanDisk's expected gross margin of 80% is expected to be maintained until 2030; and order visibility for companies like Samsung has extended to 2031.Serenity emphasized that storage stocks are highly volatile, with some of its positions showing unrealized gains of over 270%, making them easier to hold. However, the company's operational fundamentals and short-term stock prices often do not align. The same logic applies to other bottleneck areas such as optical modules, CW lasers, and substrates; after a rebound in stock prices, there is no need to assume that shortages have ended. Storage prices and supply-demand structures remain tight, and market sentiment and valuation narratives are rapidly rotating.

According to the official page, Binance Alpha has launched BSC Meme "FLORK".According to Binance market data, "FLORK" has temporarily increased by over 100%, with a current market capitalization of 16.1 million USD.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated on social media that a few days ago, Bitcoin did not break through the resistance level of $81,000, and since then, it has been looking for a pullback, which is between $75,500 and $76,000, after which it continues to look bullish towards the next resistance level of $86,000.The judgments made over the past few months have been mostly correct, but that does not mean they will always be correct in the future. Every trade must be approached with caution and a fresh perspective. Making mistakes is normal; many people say that discussing market trends can easily be disproven, and one mistake can lead to failure. However, facing challenges and continuously improving is the entrepreneurial spirit, and failure is also a part of the business process.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the demand for Bitcoin in the market has declined again. Although short-term holders are still taking profits, and selling pressure remains stable, apparent demand has turned negative again, indicating that demand has significantly weakened in the past few days.He believes that this change is also reflected in the price structure of Bitcoin, with the current trend tending to weaken. If demand does not recover in the short term, Bitcoin may face further downside risks.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that during the recent rise of Bitcoin to $80,000, the average unrealized profit margin for short-term holders (STH) is close to 15%. The estimated holding cost is currently around $70,100, and the profit level has reached the highest since July 2025. This range is often accompanied by significant profit growth, which also makes the holding mentality of short-term holders more unstable, and some investors may choose to take profits. Therefore, it is not surprising that Bitcoin is temporarily stagnating around $80,000.

U.S. short-term Treasury yields rose. Federal Reserve Chairman Waller emphasized in a highly anticipated speech that the Fed needs to curb rising consumer prices, alleviating some market concerns about its ability to combat inflation.During Waller's speech, short-term U.S. Treasuries were sold off, while long-term Treasuries rose. The yield on the two-year Treasury increased by 5 basis points to 4.28%, while the 30-year yield decreased by 1 basis point to 5.19%. These changes indicate that the market expects the Fed may need to raise short-term rates. Since Waller held his first press conference in June, bond traders have had doubts about his policy stance. At that time, Waller emphasized the need to lower inflation and showed a hawkish stance.Since the global economy reopened from the pandemic in 2021, U.S. inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target. However, in July, the Fed again kept rates unchanged, and Waller did not indicate whether a rate hike might occur this year. Subsequently, long-term Treasury yields surged as traders demanded higher returns to compensate for the risks posed by rising inflation.Waller warned on Friday that inflation has not shown meaningful signs of slowing and stated that policymakers must be confident that inflation is improving; otherwise, the central bank "has work to do." He also reiterated that policymakers will bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target and emphasized that this goal is clear and fixed.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that Bitcoin has not yet broken through the resistance level around $81,000 and is expected to experience a slight pullback in the next few days, followed by a continued rise and a breakthrough in that area. The next resistance level to watch is around $86,000.He plans to close long positions when Bitcoin rises to around $86,000, as that position may face a significant pullback. However, he still believes that the bull market trend has arrived; even if the price enters a resistance area and appears bearish in the short term, he will only choose to close long positions and will not establish short positions.

On August 24, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin rose 22% from $63,000 to $77,000 within 8 days, with the profit supply ratio of short-term holders (STH) increasing from 26.1% to 74.9%. Meanwhile, the net inflow of STH to exchanges shifted from negative to +28,600 BTC, breaking through the +25,000 threshold, indicating that profit-taking pressure is building.If this indicator remains above the threshold and price momentum slows down, the risk of selling will significantly increase; if the flow converges to zero and the profit ratio maintains above 50%, the market is expected to continue its upward trend.

According to Forbes, Bitcoin recently rose from $62,900 to $79,500, with a 26% increase within 5 days, following the liquidation of over $3.1 billion in short positions. Trader MARMOT stated that this round of increase is not entirely driven by natural demand but is a typical short squeeze situation. He pointed out that approximately $3.1 billion in short positions were liquidated in the past few days, marking one of the largest liquidation events he has witnessed. At the same time, as Bitcoin rapidly rises, retail investors are chasing the price, leading to a noticeable FOMO sentiment in the market.Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that his previous prediction of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of the year may be underestimated. He believes Bitcoin could retest its historical high of $126,000 and expects the market recovery to accelerate further after October 6.Meanwhile, some market participants believe that the current upward trend carries short-term overheating risks. Trader David Goldstein mentioned that Bitcoin's rise from $64,000 to nearly $80,000 is mainly driven by signals from the U.S. Treasury regarding bond repurchases and a short squeeze of unprecedented scale. He considers $80,000 to be the first significant resistance level, and this round of increase may peak in the $85,000 to $90,000 range, followed by a correction or fluctuations around $70,000 to $75,000.Forecasting platform data shows that market expectations for Bitcoin's future price are heating up. Meanwhile, inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have rebounded, with a cumulative inflow of $1.62 billion over four trading days as of August 21, reversing the previous week's trend of net outflows.However, several traders remind investors to avoid chasing prices due to rapid increases. Crypto Kit noted that just a week ago, the market was waiting for buying opportunities at $45,000 to $50,000, but now that Bitcoin has risen to $77,000, investors suddenly accept the current price, indicating a clear increase in market FOMO sentiment.

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin has risen over 23% in the past three days. As the price rapidly increases, signs of profit-taking in the market have begun to emerge, with approximately 53,000 BTC flowing into major exchanges, of which about 17,800 BTC has transferred to Binance.It is noteworthy that all of the 17,800 BTC flowing into Binance comes from short-term holders, particularly investors who have held their positions for less than a day. In contrast, long-term holders who have held BTC for more than six months have not transferred any BTC to Binance. This indicates that the current influx of funds is primarily driven by short-term speculative capital, rather than structural selling by long-term holders.Data shows that this is the largest inflow of BTC to Binance since February 2026. In February of this year, short-term holders experienced a significant market capitulation. Currently, short-term funds are once again flowing in and out of exchanges on a large scale, reflecting a noticeable increase in speculative trading activity, and these brief and sudden capital movements are driving the volatility of the cryptocurrency market higher.

According to Gate market data, the market experienced a collective short-term crash, with TRUMP dropping over 15%, ZEC, SOL, and XRP all dropping over 10%, and ETH dropping over 8%.

According to Gate market data, spot gold has dropped $20 in the short term, currently reported at $4,566.49 per ounce. The US Dollar Index DXY has risen 10 points in the short term, currently reported at 98.76.

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire stated on X that the company has recently released a short-term roadmap for agentic capabilities and related standards. This roadmap covers multiple capabilities being built, with a focus on expanding support for agents as work sellers, and involves mechanisms such as agent identity, reputation, verification, and trusted discovery.Allaire pointed out that the above planning aims to promote the implementation of agent-related standards and functionalities, enabling agents to participate in work transactions and service provision. As the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, Circle continues to pay attention to the integration of infrastructure such as payments and on-chain identity with emerging agent scenarios.

According to GMGN data, the meme coin "Niu Lai" on the BNB Chain reached a new market cap high of 49.2 million USD, and after failing to break through 50 million USD, it fell back to 36 million USD, experiencing a short-term pullback of 26%, with a 24-hour increase of 227% and a 24-hour trading volume of 37.7 million USD.

According to Gate market data, spot gold surged over 20 dollars within 15 minutes, currently reported at 4,404 dollars/ounce.

According to Gate market data, Saudi media Hadass reported that sources said the extension agreement of the 60-day deadline between Iran and the United States has been approved. U.S. oil and Brent oil fell short-term by more than $1, and the three major U.S. stock index futures rose short-term.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin are currently at a loss relative to their entry cost, but the realized loss is limited, and there are no signs of large-scale selling or capitulation in the market. The STH MVRV is approximately maintained at 0.94, remaining below the 1.0 parity level for 98 consecutive days, corresponding to over three months of sustained unrealized losses. This group has a realized price of about $67,300, while the spot price is around $63,200, with an average unrealized loss of about 6%. The price still stands above the -1σ support level of $59,300, with a deeper pressure zone at -2σ located at $49,200, showing a controllable pullback rather than structural damage.In terms of behavioral indicators, the STH SOPR (7-day moving average) is running at about 0.996, slightly below 1.0, indicating that this group is on average realizing small losses, but the losses are shallow and close to the breakeven line. The indicator has recently fluctuated narrowly between 0.996 and 1.002, briefly touching 1.0 on August 10 before retreating, with no signs of a deep selling wave. MVRV and SOPR corroborate each other: short-term holders are under pressure and realizing small losses, but this has not evolved into panic selling.Analysis points out that an upward recovery requires SOPR to stabilize above 1.0 and MVRV to rise above 1.0 (with the spot price breaking above the realized price of about $67,300); the downside risk lies in losing the $59,300 -1σ support and extending towards $49,200, while SOPR further weakens. The current structure is still supported, with pressure present but no signs of capitulation selling yet.