short-term

Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that as of October 21, the proportion of new investors' funds in the Bitcoin network has risen from a year-to-date low of 6.6% on July 5 to 11.2%, indicating that new funds are gradually returning, but the inflow remains below the levels of over 20% seen in 2024 and 2025.Currently, the price of Bitcoin is approximately $82,300, with the average holding cost for short-term holders at $75,100, resulting in an overall unrealized profit of about 9.5%. This group has been in a profitable state for 63 consecutive days since August 20, with the unrealized profit ratio reaching 16% on October 5. If the proportion of new investors' funds exceeds 11.5%, it will indicate a further increase in buyer demand; if it falls back below 10%, it suggests that the inflow of new funds may stagnate. If Bitcoin drops below $75,100, the overall short-term holders will turn to a loss, and related selling pressure may increase accordingly.

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire stated in an interview that he is not particularly focused on the short-term price performance of Bitcoin, but is more optimistic about the digital dollar used for payments and the AI agent economy. Allaire mentioned that the digital dollar can be used for payments, transactions, lending, and investment, and that AI agents will participate in more economic activities in the future, potentially further driving the demand for digital dollars and related blockchain infrastructure, although he did not provide specific data on the growth of this demand.On the regulatory front, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in the United States is formulating rules related to the GENIUS Act. The proposal requires stablecoin issuers to hold reserve assets not less than the total amount of circulating stablecoins and to redeem at face value within two business days, while prohibiting issuers from paying interest to holders. Allaire believes that the bill has bipartisan support and can provide policy protection for the stablecoin industry, but broader legislative progress on the structure of the cryptocurrency market in the United States has not yet been made.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the unrealized profits of large short-term holders have decreased from 9.8 billion dollars on September 22 to about 4.6 billion dollars on October 20, a reduction of approximately 5.1 billion dollars within a month, representing a decline of 53%.This does not mean that whales have sold off more than half of their holdings, but rather that their current unrealized gains from holding BTC have significantly narrowed.

Elon Musk stated that for SpaceX, a wise move is to sign short-term contracts to lease AI data centers.

According to Israel's Channel 12, the proposal submitted by the Chief of Staff of the Pakistan Army to senior Iranian officials has been approved by the United States, and Iran has also tentatively agreed. The proposal partially responds to Iran's demand for the return of frozen funds, stipulating that the interest generated from the 6 billion dollars frozen in a Qatari bank will be transferred to Iran.Affected by this news, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell short-term by about 0.8 dollars, currently reported at 97.51 dollars per barrel and 105.76 dollars per barrel, respectively. On the news front, reports indicate that the U.S. and Iran have tentatively recognized Pakistan's mediation proposal.

Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that short-term holders currently hold approximately 4.08 million Bitcoins, the highest since mid-June. This is an increase of about 422,000 since the low on July 29, representing a growth of about 12%. In the first two weeks of October, there was an increase of about 154,000, and in the past week, an increase of about 48,000. He noted that new buyers mostly entered the market in the range of approximately $82,000 to $86,000.As of now, the average cost for short-term holders is about $74,900, with unrealized profit buffer narrowing from about 16% to around 10%. Axel Adler Jr mentioned that $74,900 is the breakeven point for this group, and prices have consistently remained above this cost since August 20. If it falls below this cost, the group will collectively enter into unrealized losses, or increase selling pressure.

On-chain analyst Murphy posted on the X platform, stating that during the recent decline of BTC, the scale of short-term holders (STH) transferring BTC to exchanges has significantly increased, averaging about 2,200 BTC transferred per hour over a 4-hour period, reaching the fourth highest level since the market rally began in August this year. However, the peak of transfers has fallen below that of October 8, indicating that the potential selling pressure from short-term holders has weakened.In contrast, long-term holders (LTH) transferred an average of only about 480 BTC to exchanges per hour during the same period, which is about one-fifth of the short-term holders. Murphy pointed out that on October 8, long-term holders experienced a peak transfer of about 3,700 BTC per hour, which may be partly related to asset transfers triggered by security incidents involving hardware wallets. However, considering that both short-term and long-term holders experienced large-scale transfers that day, and the rapid decline in BTC prices, there remains actual selling pressure in the market. Murphy believes that during the current decline, the main transfers to exchanges are from short-term holders, while long-term holders remain relatively stable overall, and the intensity of transfers from short-term holders has weakened compared to before, reflecting that the structure of BTC holders still has a certain resilience.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell as the market increased bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates after the inflation data was released. The U.S. Dollar Index DXY rose nearly 40 points in the short term, currently reported at 102.52.In addition, the market has increased bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates three more times before the end of 2027.

Binance will launch bStocks tokenized securities trading pairs: BBB/USDT, MDBB/USDT, PENGB/USDT, and UVXYB/USDT on October 14 at 20:00, and will enable spot algorithm trading bots and smart position trading bot services.Within one hour of the bStocks launch, users can exchange for BTC, USDT, or other tokens without any fees, and the zero maker fee promotion will last until November 1 at 07:59.

The world's largest asset management company BlackRock, under the BlackRock Investment Institute, has adjusted its asset allocation in the United States, ending nearly six years of an underweight position on U.S. Treasury bonds. The institution has upgraded the rating of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds to overweight, while the rating for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds has been raised from underweight to neutral. Additionally, the ratings for U.S. stocks and U.S. agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have been downgraded from overweight to neutral.BlackRock strategists stated that current U.S. Treasury yields have risen to attractive levels, and the interest rate swap market's expectation of the Federal Reserve raising rates at least three times in the next 12 months, with each increase of 25 basis points, may be excessive. The downgrade of the U.S. stock rating is mainly to address potential market volatility brought about by the construction of artificial intelligence infrastructure and the recent risk of rising financing costs. However, the institution remains constructive on the long-term investment prospects in AI-related fields. Furthermore, BlackRock has also reduced its underweight position in Japanese government bonds.

Tom Lee, Chairman of the Ethereum treasury company BitMine, stated that the significant decline in the South Korean stock market may be transmitting to the cryptocurrency market.He mentioned the forced liquidation of margins on the brokerage side and pointed out that South Korean investors are an important holding group for crypto assets. He described this impact as short-term pain.

According to Gate market data, spot gold has dropped more than 10 dollars in the short term, currently reported at 4,160.17 dollars/ounce.

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that whether Bitcoin can regain the $84,500 level this week will depend on whether the U.S. CPI data changes market expectations for interest rates and yields, as well as whether spot market buying can follow up.This round of correction is similar to multiple adjustments during the previous recovery phase, and investors with holding costs within the original trading range have not shown significant selling. However, spot buying remains a weak link in the current market, with Bitcoin ETF investors' average holding cost around $84,340, and the current price is below this level, leading some investors to potentially sell as the rebound approaches their cost level.Analysts believe that if this week's core CPI month-on-month increase is 0.2% or lower, it may reduce market interest rate hike expectations and drive yields down, providing room for BTC to rise; if the core CPI reaches 0.3% or higher, it may continue to suppress the performance of risk assets. BTC may fluctuate in the range of $81,300 to $84,500 in the short term.If the price breaks through and stabilizes above $84,500, while ETF fund flows are strong, the market may retest the year-to-date opening level of $87,722; if it falls below $81,300 with continued capital outflow, it may further dip to around $77,400, the true market average level.

Trader Killa stated on platform X that the supply of short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin has recently reached "overheated" levels, a situation similar to the market's behavior after breaking away from the macro bottom in 2023, which could be another signal of a market bottom forming.Killa pointed out that after the supply of Bitcoin short-term holders reached similar highs in 2023, the BTC price continued to rise and maintained an upward trend in higher time frame (HTF) trends. The current market structure is quite similar to previous cycles, and investors should not overly rely on the fear and greed index to judge market direction. Killa indicated that market sentiment may remain irrational in the long term, and short-term sentiment indicators do not necessarily reflect long-term trends.

Analyst Axel Adler posted on platform X that short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin are still selling profitable Bitcoin through exchanges. In the past 7 days, the number of relevant Bitcoins transferred to exchanges by short-term holders was approximately 11,000, a decrease of about 66% from the previous peak of 32,000, indicating that selling pressure has eased.

Analyst Darkfost posted on platform X that short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin are showing significant panic. In the past 24 hours, short-term holders transferred over 50,000 BTC to exchanges in a single day peak. Among them, over 29,500 BTC were transferred to exchanges at a loss, accounting for about 59% of all inflows of BTC, marking the largest loss realization for short-term holders in nearly four months.Darkfost pointed out that despite the significant selling pressure from short-term holders realizing large losses, the price of Bitcoin has not shown significant fluctuations. Currently, the price of BTC is around $82,000, and it is retesting the previous high area formed in May of this year.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that as of October 4, the number of Bitcoin short-term holders increased by 87,000 to 3.94 million over the past 30 days, remaining above the previous month's level for seven consecutive weeks. This metric has been positive since August 18, indicating that the supply of Bitcoin that has been transferred in the last six months is increasing.Currently, the average cost for Bitcoin short-term holders is approximately $74,100, with an overall unrealized profit of about 15%, roughly flat compared to a week ago but lower than the peak of 19% on September 22. Meanwhile, the average cost has risen by about $1,000 compared to a week ago, indicating that as Bitcoin prices rise, the entry costs for short-term holders are also increasing. $74,100 is a key level to watch. If Bitcoin falls below this level, short-term holders will overall turn to unrealized losses; if the 30-day holding change also turns negative, it would mean that the position size of this group is beginning to shrink, potentially further weakening the market structure.