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Wintermute: Bitcoin faces a test at the $82,500 threshold, as AI risks and Federal Reserve policies may trigger volatility

Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute today updated its market report, stating that multiple events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the U.S. midterm elections, and third-quarter earnings reports are approaching, and the current narrow trading range of Bitcoin may soon be broken. If Bitcoin breaks above $87,000, it may confirm an upward breakout; if it effectively falls below $82,500, the price could further dip to just above $70,000.On the macro front, the overall CPI in the U.S. rose from 3.4% in August to 3.7%, with core CPI increasing by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, intensifying concerns about energy prices transmitting to core inflation. Wintermute pointed out that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields reflects more of a withdrawal of funds from crowded AI growth stock trades rather than an improvement in inflation expectations. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at its meeting on October 28, but if hawkish signals are released, it may strengthen expectations for a rate hike in December, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields and suppressing risk assets.Internally, the cryptocurrency market shows a trend of funds concentrating on mainstream coins. The report indicates that Bitcoin's weekly decline was 1.99%, the Nasdaq index fell by 5.52%, and altcoins overall dropped by 5.69%. Funds continue to flow into BTC and ETH while withdrawing from most altcoins, with high beta and small-cap tokens facing more significant pressure. Wintermute believes that the current risk-reward ratio for mainstream coins is relatively more attractive, and a broad rally in altcoins may need to wait for Bitcoin to strengthen further.Wintermute also noted that the current implied volatility is relatively low, and with the Federal Reserve's decision and midterm elections approaching, the market may be underestimating the risk of subsequent volatility. The Federal Reserve's decision on October 28 will be a key catalyst in the near term, and the performance of AI-related companies' earnings reports will also influence the market's judgment on computing power investments, financing costs, and business models.

first_img Amazon launched the open-source tool TorchNeuron, lowering the threshold for transitioning to self-developed chips

Financial Associated Press, October 20 - Amazon launched the open-source tool TorchNeuron on the 19th local time, aiming to lower the barrier for developers to transition from NVIDIA chips to its self-developed chips, challenging NVIDIA's software barrier built on CUDA. According to reports, this tool allows AI code written in PyTorch to run on Amazon's self-developed AI chips without the need for rewriting. PyTorch is maintained primarily by Meta and is described as an open-source framework used by most AI developers.Amazon's chip design department, Annapurna Labs, introduced that with TorchNeuron, developers only need to modify one configuration to run the same code on the self-developed Trainium chip. Amazon announced the launch of this tool on the 19th local time and plans to publicly release it in a free open-source format at the PyTorch conference in San Jose, California on the 20th.Colin Brace, Vice President of Software at Annapurna Labs, stated in an interview that the launch of TorchNeuron is intended to reduce the steps required for developers to try Amazon's self-developed chips, starting from the customers' existing workflows. He revealed that over 30 early customers are already using it, covering fields such as robotics, world models, and voice AI, and mentioned that switching to Amazon chips can save costs.

The U.S. Senate is about to conduct a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, with a threshold of 60 votes

The U.S. Senate will conduct a procedural vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (referred to as the CLARITY Act). At 2:15 AM Beijing time on September 16, senators will decide whether to end the debate on the motion to enter the bill's review process, with a threshold of 60 votes. If the vote passes, the bill will then enter full Senate debate, amendments, and subsequent final voting, which does not equate to the bill being passed directly that night, nor does it mean it will take effect immediately.To garner bipartisan support, Senate Republicans accepted 126 substantive amendments proposed by Democrats in the final draft. The new text includes stricter ethical provisions, granting state attorneys general a clearer enforcement role; it also gives the Secretary of the Treasury the authority to intervene against potential deposit outflows triggered by payment stablecoins, and revises developer-related provisions to reduce the risk of decentralized infrastructure developers being classified as money transmission entities. Democrats are concerned that the Trump family's cryptocurrency business may create conflicts of interest, with some lawmakers hoping to add constraints such as asset divestiture or blind trusts; moderate senators like Warner and Gallego still hope to push for more amendments. Some Republican lawmakers are also under pressure from the banking industry, fearing that accounts with yield attributes linked to stablecoins could siphon off deposits from community banks.
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