turnover

On-chain analyst Murphy posted on platform X that long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin have cumulatively transferred approximately 32,000 BTC to exchanges, marking the second-largest single-day inflow since the significant drop on February 5 of this year. However, during the same period, U.S. government-related wallets transferred about 17,200 BTC to Coinbase Prime. Considering that this platform serves as the official custodian and trading service for the U.S. Marshals Service, these transfers do not necessarily indicate selling.Excluding this portion, the noteworthy potential selling pressure is approximately 14,800 BTC, primarily coming from long-term holdings aged 6 to 12 months and 3 to 5 years. Murphy pointed out that the average coin age of spent long-term holder coins reached 712 days, up from 651 days on July 14, indicating that earlier holdings are gradually participating in turnover. He believes that the distribution by long-term holders during the transition phase between bull and bear markets is not necessarily bearish; the release of periodic selling pressure can help in the redistribution of holdings, with the key being whether market demand can effectively absorb it. If new funds can digest the supply, sufficient turnover may actually reduce resistance for subsequent market movements.

Bitcoin collateralized lending is gradually expanding from a cryptocurrency financial scene focused on trading and investment to real credit needs such as tuition fees, living expenses, business operating funds, and real estate, showing a significant change in market usage. Institutions like SALT Lending and Ledn indicate that more and more borrowers are choosing to collateralize BTC for liquidity instead of selling their holdings.Since its establishment in 2018, Ledn has issued loans totaling over $11 billion and expects this scale to grow to $1 trillion in the coming years. Its clients include entrepreneurs and institutional investors seeking operating funds, as well as individuals borrowing to pay for children's education, real estate investments, and short-term living expenses. This trend indicates that the financial attributes of BTC are extending from "tradable assets" further to "collateralizable assets." Borrowers hope to unlock its value without selling BTC while still retaining potential upside exposure.At the same time, institutions like SALT are promoting fixed-rate, long-term products, bringing crypto collateralized loans closer to traditional credit models like home mortgages. Coinbase has also recently launched fixed-rate BTC collateralized loans through Morpho. Ledn further anticipates that similar models may expand from BTC to traditional hard assets like gold, and the boundaries of the collateralized asset lending market are widening.

On Tuesday, the Ukrainian National Police and Security Service announced the dismantling of a fake investment platform network based in Kyiv. This gang stole cryptocurrency from users in over 20 countries through built-in wallet theft tools. Investigators have currently confirmed 62 victims, including citizens from Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Spain, France, the UK, Canada, and Israel. The organizers recruited more than 46 Ukrainians, operating multiple offices in Kyiv and surrounding areas, where developers were responsible for building the fake platform and resisting bans, while other members handled customer service and security.According to the Ukrainian Security Service, the organizer is a 25-year-old IT expert, and the gang's peak monthly revenue reached up to $1 million. The scam began with advertisements for cryptocurrency investment projects on Telegram. After users registered, they connected their wallets and invested funds, while gang members manually forged transactions to show a continuously increasing balance in the user backend. When users requested withdrawals, the platform required them to connect their main wallet and approve a small "test" transaction under the pretext of verification. This authorization immediately triggered the built-in theft tool on the website, transferring assets to wallets controlled by the gang and locking the victims' accounts.Investigators tracked down server equipment storing the gang's database in the Netherlands, which recorded victim information, wallet addresses, stolen amounts, internal communications, and platform operation data, as well as user passports, phone numbers, emails, login passwords, and photos. Police executed 34 searches in Kyiv and surrounding areas, seizing over 100 computers, more than 100 mobile phones, 79 SIM cards, one GSM gateway, cash, and 15 vehicles.

At least 14 senior and core executives have left their positions at OpenAI this year. Business Insider counted 13 people as of August 21, and The Wall Street Journal later reported the departure of data center head Chris Malone. This group spans business, product, security, ethics, research, and infrastructure.Specifically, they include Chief Revenue Officer Denise Dresser, former COO and Head of Special Projects Brad Lightcap, CEO of Application Business Fidji Simo, former CPO and Head of OpenAI for Science Kevin Weil, Head of Sora Bill Peebles, CTO of Enterprise Applications Srinivas Narayanan, Chief Marketing Officer Kate Rouch, Head of Enterprise AI Sales Barret Zoph, Head of Ethics Chloé Bakalar, Head of Security Systems Johannes Heidecke, Chief Futurist Joshua Achiam, Head of Robotics and Consumer Hardware Caitlin Kalinowski, Vice President of Sales for the Americas Kaylin Voss, and data center head Chris Malone.These individuals did not leave for the same reason; some are starting their own businesses, some left due to health reasons, and others faced team layoffs and management restructuring. OpenAI secretly submitted its U.S. IPO documents in June.

According to CNBC, OpenAI President and Co-founder Greg Brockman responded to concerns about the recent frequent departures of executives from the company, stating that the personnel changes are not unusual. The heightened attention from the outside world is mainly because OpenAI has long been in the spotlight.Greg Brockman stated that compared to other organizations, every departure at OpenAI is subject to stricter scrutiny, and "every departure is magnified," but he believes this situation "is actually not uncommon." OpenAI is still focused on advancing artificial intelligence technology and believes that the level of attention on executive turnover is related to the company's industry influence.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that data shows Bitcoin is currently building significant support in the range of $59,000 to $70,000, which has also become one of the most fiercely defended price ranges in Bitcoin's history.Currently, about 50% of the total Bitcoin supply has changed hands above $59,000. If we exclude millions of Bitcoins that are considered permanently lost, this percentage will increase further. The main drivers of this round of turnover are short-term holders, and the behavior of market participants is becoming polarized, with some investors choosing to panic sell while others continue to accumulate.

Analyst Murphy stated that by observing the "short-term capital on-chain activity weight" (i.e., the proportion of the dollar value represented by short-term chip turnover) as an on-chain indicator, we can assess the current BTC market status. This indicator reflects the latest short-term trading behaviors such as speculation, arbitrage, profit-taking, or panic selling. Currently, this weight has dropped to historically low levels, appearing only in the bottom regions of bear markets over the past 15 years, indicating a significant cooling of short-term turnover, with economic value shifting towards long-term chip accumulation. The market is characterized by low volatility, consolidation, or clear bottom features.The analyst judges that based on this, the current market may be in one of three stages: bear market bottom; secondary bottom, which may still have one last drop; or consolidation before the bull market starts. However, under rational judgment, the pre-bull consolidation can be temporarily ruled out. It is currently not recommended to fully bet on a single scenario; a diversified position strategy is advised to cope with different outcomes, as the relative position of the long-term trend has indicated that Bitcoin is near the bottom.

Crypto analyst Murphy stated that BTC is filling the gap left in its chip structure since 2024, with the recent chip concentration zone located around $78,000, where approximately 423,000 BTC have changed hands, indicating significant capital entering to form support.He pointed out that the trading volume in the $79,000 to $80,000 range has noticeably decreased, possibly due to proximity to integer levels and resistance, with some capital choosing to wait and see. There remains an unfilled chip gap in the $81,000 to $82,000 range, and it is expected that the price will oscillate and consolidate in this range before challenging higher areas once the chips have fully changed hands.Murphy emphasized that the chip concentration in the $83,000 to $84,000 range mainly stems from Coinbase organizing wallets and does not constitute real resistance. If BTC stabilizes above $82,000, the real pressure above will come from the chip concentration zone above $87,000.

According to on-chain analyst Murphy (@Murphychen888), the net position change of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) continues to show an upward trend.Data shows that from February 13 to February 26, a total of 14,127 Bitcoins held by long-term holders were spent, while 19,798 Bitcoins held by short-term holders (STH) were converted to long-term holdings. After offsetting the positives and negatives, the result remains positive, indicating that both long-term and short-term holdings have reduced turnover. Although market liquidity has decreased, selling pressure has also correspondingly weakened.

The cryptocurrency market research firm Santiment posted on social media that Bitcoin is about to reach a milestone— the number of addresses holding at least 100 BTC is about to surpass 20,000.A wallet holding 100 or more Bitcoins currently has a minimum value of $6.78 million, and these wallets are clearly primarily held by ultra-high-net-worth individuals, funds, long-term holders, or institutions. When this number continues to rise during or after a price decline (as seen recently), it can be viewed as a bullish signal. However, the total supply held by key stakeholders has not shown significant growth, which is also a reason for the continued pressure on prices.If the number of 100+ BTC addresses is increasing, it means that more large holders are diversifying their holdings rather than a few controlling everything. In this sense, it indicates a reduction in concentration at the top. But it also suggests that wealth is concentrating among strong hands compared to small retail wallets. Therefore, this is not a signal of decentralization at the most micro level, but it does indicate that more independent entities are joining the ranks of "whales."Historically, the growth in the number of whale addresses often occurs during accumulation phases, which subsequently supports price recovery. The increase in wallet numbers needs to match the growth in total supply, while retail investors gradually sell their tokens to large wallets. History shows that retail traders eventually panic sell or take profits too early, allowing this phase to materialize.

Cryptanalysis expert Murphy stated that BTC is currently fluctuating around $65,000, a position close to the range of the 10y_RP indicator. This indicator, after excluding the impact of most lost BTC costs, is considered a more accurate reflection of the "historical average turnover cost." This range may serve as an important psychological and cost defense line for bulls. A significant drop below this level could indicate that the current downward trend is likely to continue on a deeper bearish path.

According to on-chain analyst Murphy (@Murphychen888), the dollar value of the average single transaction on the Bitcoin blockchain dropped from an average of $46,610 on December 14 to an average of $24,897 on December 30, a decline of nearly 47%. During the same period, the price of Bitcoin remained largely within the range of $87,000 to $88,000.Data shows that the concentration of Bitcoin holdings has remained almost unchanged from December 25 to 30, currently standing at 14.4%. Murphy pointed out that this phenomenon indicates a decrease in the willingness of large funds to participate in trading, which may be related to U.S. investors being in holiday mode, leading to a temporary reduction in market liquidity.The analyst stated that after liquidity gradually recovers, there are usually two scenarios:The concentration of holdings continues to rise and then suddenly drops significantly after reaching a critical point;The concentration of holdings drops significantly directly.

Data analyst Murphy stated that the Bitcoin cost distribution chart shows a significant chip distribution (large volume bars) at $87,000 and $84,500, which is notably higher than other price levels. After excluding the factor of the large-scale wallet consolidation on Coinbase on November 22, there are currently 1.12 million BTC in the $83,300-$84,500 range, of which the actual turnover should be reduced by at least half. Therefore, $87,000 represents the highest large volume bar and is currently the strongest support level in terms of chip structure.Based on past experience, when a large amount of chips concentrates in a narrow range to form a large volume bar, it indicates that the market is about to choose a direction. The essence of chip accumulation is the divergence between bulls and bears, and when the game reaches a critical point, a winner must be determined. Murphy believes that from the perspective of chip structure, the outlook is bullish. As long as the effective support of the large volume bar can be maintained, the direction will become clearer.

The cryptocurrency trading indicator analysis platform CoinKarma posted on social media that, based on the technical indicator CVD, after BTC lost its key mid-to-long-term position this week, it has faced strong selling pressure for several consecutive days, leading to an accelerated decline in the market.However, we also noticed that the spot trading volume at the daily close for BTC has reached its highest level recently across multiple trading platforms, indicating that a significant turnover is occurring in the market. This kind of high turnover and increased volume leading to a stop in decline is a typical short-term bottom signal.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform, stating that the current market correction is mainly due to the turnover among long-term holders. Early Bitcoin holders are selling their chips to traditional financial institutions, which also tend to hold long-term. He recalled that the reason for his earlier judgment of a stage top earlier this year was because "OG whales" were significantly selling off at that time, but the current market structure has changed.He pointed out that ETFs, MicroStrategy, and various new funding channels continue to bring incremental liquidity, and on-chain capital inflows remain strong. This round of correction is primarily driven by early whales pulling down the market. He emphasized that as sovereign funds, pension funds, multi-asset funds, and corporate treasuries continue to position themselves, the liquidity channels for Bitcoin will further expand. In the context of these funding channels continuing to operate, traditional cycle theories are no longer applicable.

ChainCatcher message, according to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa's monitoring, nearly 500 million dollars worth of BTC short positions have been completely closed.After a night of small reductions, the "high-profile ETH swapping BTC ancient whale" finished closing 4,394.73 BTC five hours ago, ultimately making a profit of 92.46 million dollars over five days, while BTC also rebounded above 113,000 dollars. He has withdrawn all USDC from his account.

According to ChainCatcher news, on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa) monitored that the previously high-profile BTC ancient whale that swapped to ETH has once again increased its short position by 908 BTC. Currently, the total short position held by this whale has reached 4348.74 BTC, valued at approximately 492 million USD, with an opening price of 115308.4 USD and a liquidation price of 124416.2 USD, resulting in an unrealized profit of 8.94 million USD.