When will the cryptocurrency market change?

According to analyst Alicharts, Bitcoin has dropped 52% since its peak in October 2025, with a 3-day SMA crossover signal appearing on February 27 (the death cross of both the 50-period and 200-period SMA), which has now lasted for 30 days. Historical patterns suggest that the final accumulation window of this cycle may occur within the next 3-6 days.Alicharts points out that historical records show that in every major cycle since 2014, the crossover of the 50 and 200 SMA marks an absolute bottom and a golden buying opportunity. Past cycles indicate that a final drop of 40-52% occurs 23-33 days after the crossover, completing the bear market washout. The potential washout target for this cycle is between $30,000 and $40,000, after which the next bull market will begin.

According to The Block, Bitcoin fell 23.8% in the first quarter of 2026, marking the worst first-quarter performance since 2018. In comparison, Bitcoin dropped 50% in the first quarter of 2018. Coupled with a 23% decline in the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin has accumulated a decline of about 41.6% over the past six months.Analysts attribute this decline to multiple factors. Andri Fauzan Adziima, head of research at Bitrue, stated that the downward trend in the first quarter was mainly driven by outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, along with persistently high inflation, a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve, and an overall risk-averse sentiment in the market. In the first quarter, there was a net outflow of $496.5 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs, with $1.8 billion flowing out in the first two months, while $1.32 billion inflow in March partially offset the previous outflows.Nevertheless, analysts believe that the long-term confidence in Bitcoin remains unshaken. Min Jung, a researcher at Presto Research, stated, "There is almost no evidence to suggest a structural change in long-term confidence in Bitcoin; institutional participation and adoption trends remain intact, indicating that this decline is more cyclical than fundamental." She pointed out that a trend reversal in the second quarter depends on greater certainty in the macro environment, especially regarding the situation in the Middle East.Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG, stated, "To reverse the trend in the second quarter, we need ETF funds to flow back in, clear progress on crypto-friendly regulations in the U.S., and a shift towards looser monetary conditions."

Crypto analyst Leshka.eth expressed the view that the recent price trend of Ethereum is showing a technical pattern similar to historical "bull market traps," with a risk of further decline in the short term, potentially targeting $1200, representing a potential drop of about 40% from current levels.The technical indicators show that the Supertrend indicator on the ETH daily chart has failed to sustain its previous two "bullish" signals, which subsequently triggered significant pullbacks of 45% and 48%. A similar structure is now appearing again at the critical level of about $1990; if it breaks below this level, it could trigger a new round of accelerated decline.The fundamentals and capital flows are also weak. On a macro level, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and recession expectations are suppressing risk appetite, while the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have significantly shifted further out; in terms of capital flows, there has been a net outflow of about $300 million from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recently, and on-chain demand has dropped to a 16-month low.On-chain data shows that the number of large holding addresses (≥10,000 ETH) has stagnated since peaking, and there are also no significant signs of accumulation from "whale" and "shark" addresses in the 1,000 to 10,000 ETH and 100 to 1,000 ETH ranges, respectively, indicating an overall state of distribution and wait-and-see. In the absence of strong buying support, if key support levels are breached, the ETH price may face further downward pressure.

According to market news, due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict, the price of Bitcoin has fallen from about $71,000 last week to around $67,000, dipping to $65,000 on Saturday. BTC Markets crypto analyst Rachael Lucas stated that Bitcoin briefly reached $72,000 earlier this week due to hopes for a breakthrough in Middle Eastern diplomacy, but as those hopes faded and concerns over oil supply resurfaced, the price retraced its gains.She pointed out that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has heightened inflation concerns, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which puts pressure on crypto prices. BTSE Chief Operating Officer Jeff Mei indicated that oil and gas prices will remain high in the short term and drag down economic growth, suggesting that there is still room for crypto prices to decline, with Bitcoin potentially falling to a support level of $60,000.Bitrue Research Director Andri Fauzan Adziima believes that the market will continue to be volatile and driven by news; if the US-Iran conflict escalates, Bitcoin may test $60,000; if the situation eases and oil prices drop, it could rebound above $70,000.BTC Markets analyst Lucas also noted that current retail investor sentiment is fearful, with many adopting a wait-and-see or hedging stance, while institutional investors are showing the opposite trend. This month, over $1.13 billion flowed into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, ending four consecutive months of net outflows; Strategy continues to increase holdings, and Morgan Stanley is set to launch a low-fee Bitcoin ETF.She stated that when there is a clear divergence between retail panic and institutional accumulation, historical experience shows that institutional judgment is often more accurate.

On-chain analyst Willy Woo pointed out that traditional on-chain models indicate that the current bottom range for Bitcoin is expected to be between $46,000 and $54,000.Data shows that Bitcoin storage funds have been continuously flowing out since last year, while the cumulative value days destroyed (CVDD) bottom model currently reads $45,500, which has the characteristic of continuously increasing in value over time.

Crypto market analyst Axel released a latest report stating that in the past 30 days, Bitcoin ETFs (in the U.S. and elsewhere) have seen a cumulative net inflow of 62,986 BTC (approximately $11.3 billion), bringing total holdings to 1.327 million BTC.During the same period, short-term holders continued to realize losses on exchanges, with daily outflows from the loss side averaging 15,500 BTC. Axel pointed out that current institutional buying has surpassed retail selling pressure, providing support for prices, but the market is showing a divergent pattern—short-term participants are still selling at a loss, while ETF funds are gradually absorbing supply. To maintain the upward momentum, prices need to stabilize above $70,000, and ETF fund inflows must remain positive.

10x Research published an analysis on platform X indicating that Bitcoin has fallen below the key price level of $69,000, with a significant shift in market structure and notable signs of trader position adjustments.Futures traders have significantly closed long positions, and the funding rate has turned deeply negative. Meanwhile, option flows have clearly shifted towards downside protection, short-term volatility has risen back to mid-range, and skew remains negative, reflecting the market's ongoing demand for hedging against downside risks. 10x Research added that the current market is no longer trading around the expectation of breaking above $75,000; faster-reacting traders in the derivatives market have already adjusted their positions, and the overall market is preparing for uncertainty and potentially larger fluctuations.On a macro level, the market has begun to factor in interest rate hike expectations, while the Federal Reserve continues to signal rate cuts, a divergence that is difficult to sustain in the long term. If the oil price shock further evolves into a growth shock, risk assets may come under pressure. The key price range has entered a sensitive phase, and if it is breached, the downward trend may accelerate.

SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci stated that the current Bitcoin bear market can be explained by the four-year cycle theory and long-term holders selling at the psychological price level of $100,000. He pointed out that while the inflow of institutional investors and Bitcoin ETFs has made the four-year cycle "milder," it has not completely eliminated this traditional cycle, and the collective belief of market participants can create a self-fulfilling prophecy.He predicts that Bitcoin will exhibit a volatile trend for most of 2026, with a rise beginning in the fourth quarter as part of a new bull market cycle. Scaramucci mentioned that market participants, including himself, had generally expected Bitcoin to rise to $150,000 by 2025, driven by the pro-crypto agenda of the Trump administration and a warming regulatory environment, but the market crash in October completely shattered this consensus.He used the example of Bitcoin's performance in early 2023 following the FTX collapse in November 2022 to illustrate that the market often moves in the opposite direction of mainstream sentiment, with bull markets typically starting during periods of "extreme apathy and lack of interest." The current bear market is considered a "normal" adjustment consistent with past corrections.