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LINK $12.56 -0.71%
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first_img Uniswap founder: Tokenization will reshape the market-making landscape, and AMM is still in its early stages

Uniswap founder Hayden Adams stated that after nine years of DeFi practice, the path for AMM to become the core engine of the global financial market is becoming increasingly clear. He pointed out that tokenization is not only an infrastructure upgrade but also changes who provides liquidity and what is traded in the market. The SEC has approved Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange to trade tokenized stocks, and the DTCC also conducted live testing of tokenized trading in July.Adams believes that traditional market makers vertically integrate capital, strategy, execution, settlement, and distribution, which is costly; blockchain disassembles these components, making capital a scarce input. Liquidity providers who already hold relevant assets or are the issuers themselves can bear inventory exposure at zero cost, thereby weakening professional market makers with lower capital costs. An on-chain "related asset pair" model has naturally formed (such as the Ethereum ecosystem pairing with ETH and stablecoins), as correlation reduces inventory risk and deepens liquidity.He cited that there are already 10 tokenized stocks on the Robinhood Chain forming a Uniswap pool with SPY, which has traded approximately $33 million in 12 days, with some trades occurring directly between stocks without touching the dollar. Adams also stated that although Uniswap's cumulative trading volume has reached about $4.6 trillion, AMM is still in its early stages, and there is significant room for improvement in subsequent design and ecosystem.

The United States accelerates the advancement of cryptocurrency regulation: Trump strongly promotes the CLARITY Act, while the SEC and CFTC synchronize their rule-making systems

This week, U.S. cryptocurrency policy has seen intensive progress. The Trump administration has pushed for new advancements in the CLARITY Act, the SEC has proposed a draft of regulatory rules for cryptocurrency assets for the first time, and the CFTC has stated that if congressional legislation stalls, it will promote the establishment of an independent regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market. Trump met with leaders from several cryptocurrency companies at the White House this week and publicly called on Congress to pass a "fair version" of the CLARITY Act. Representatives from Coinbase, a16z, Ripple, Kraken, and other industry participants attended the meeting, focusing on the bill's impact on U.S. jobs, innovation, and attracting cryptocurrency companies back. Currently, the main obstacles to advancing the bill are concentrated on certain ethical clauses. Trump believes that the relevant provisions may target individuals, but industry insiders are pushing both sides to find a compromise to facilitate bipartisan support.CFTC Chairman Mike Selig stated that the CLARITY Act is key to avoiding regulatory uncertainty. If Congress continues to delay, the CFTC will use its existing authority to formulate regulatory rules for the cryptocurrency asset market. Meanwhile, the U.S. SEC has officially proposed a "Crypto Assets Rule Framework," planning to allow certain cryptocurrency financing to be exempt from full securities registration under specific conditions, including a cumulative financing cap of $5 million over four years or an annual limit of $75 million, and providing conditional safe harbor for certain token projects. Additionally, the SEC is considering limiting certain state securities registration requirements to provide a clearer compliance path for U.S. cryptocurrency companies. Market participants believe that recent actions by U.S. regulators indicate that Washington is shifting from a previous enforcement-based regulatory model to establishing a systematic regulatory framework for cryptocurrency assets.On the other hand, former Signature Bank Chairman Scott Shay has launched the N3XT Digital Dollar (NDD) digital dollar deposit project, attempting to challenge the stablecoin market. NDD operates on a public blockchain, enabling 24/7 dollar transfers, and is backed one-to-one by cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds. Shay stated that banks can leverage blockchain technology to create a payment system similar to stablecoins while maintaining the dollar credit advantage of the traditional financial system. The project is seen as a new attempt by banks to respond to the expansion of stablecoins. Additionally, the cryptocurrency investment market is entering a new cycle. Dragonfly partner Rob Hadick stated that although AI is attracting significant capital, cryptocurrency startup activity is still recovering, and future predictions of market, institutional applications, and improvements in U.S. regulation may drive new growth in the industry.

The founder of Bridgewater Associates discusses decision-making in the AI era: principled thinking should run parallel with AI, and human insights remain irreplaceable

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, recently published a lengthy article sharing his thoughts on the investment decision-making system in the AI era, emphasizing that human insights still hold irreplaceable value in financial markets.Dalio believes that investing is essentially a "value-added near-zero-sum" competitive environment. When certain information becomes widely recognized, its investment value often declines rapidly. Therefore, even the most advanced AI systems are insufficient for investors to rely on completely or to follow blindly; the true competitive advantage still lies in unique human understanding and deep insights.Drawing on Bridgewater's 50 years of development experience, Dalio suggests that decision-making should be based on a clear, understandable, and verifiable principle system. He states that principled thinking does not rely on intuition or experiential judgment, but rather systematizes decision-making standards by analyzing contexts and causal relationships, recording core principles, and utilizing historical data for verification, ultimately transforming them into computable and automatically executable decision systems.He also points out that the formation of principles cannot solely depend on data mining or directly asking AI, but must be based on logical reasoning and an understanding of the operational laws of the real world.Dalio describes this process as a "collaborative game" between humans and AI. In this model, AI provides systematic suggestions based on established principles, while humans engage in independent thinking according to their own principle framework. Both parties continuously optimize the decision-making system through comparison, discussion, and logical verification.He believes that truly valuable principles should transcend time and geography, enduring scrutiny across different historical cycles and market environments. If a principle fails, it is necessary to re-examine the underlying causal relationships and continuously revise it.Dalio states that he has already applied this method in his family office to fully leverage the new generation of AI technology and plans to continue sharing related methodologies with the outside world. He also reminds market participants that as AI technology continues to evolve, the ability to effectively combine artificial intelligence with principled thinking may become an important watershed for future competitiveness.

Analysis: The average cost of BTC loss-making positions is $93,600, and a large number of high-position trapped positions have been cut and exited

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that the average cost of all loss-making Bitcoin chips has currently fallen below $100,000, now at only $93,600. This means that under the current chip structure, BTC will reach the market average breakeven point when it rises back to $93,000. During the two rapid declines at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large number of high-position trapped chips chose to cut losses and exit, lowering the average cost of overall floating loss chips.It is also observed that the average cost of loss-making chips has a deviation coefficient of 1.4 compared to the current 30-day average price of BTC, while in the past three bear market bottoms, the deviation coefficient has exceeded 2 at least. When the average deviation coefficient is greater than or equal to 2, it indicates that the market has entered an absolute bottom range, at which point the price of BTC is less than 50% of the average cost of loss-making chips. To meet this condition, the lowest point of BTC in this round would need to drop to $46,800, but historical patterns may not always hold true. This bear market may be less painful than any previous bear market. According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the market related to whether Bitcoin will reach $60,000 or $80,000 first on Polymarket, the probability of reaching $60,000 first is 68%, while the probability of reaching $80,000 first is 32%.

The SEC Chairman signals the direction of cryptocurrency regulation: clarifying the investment contract framework and promoting innovation exemptions and rule-making

The official website of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission published a speech by Chairman Paul Atkins at the ETHDenver conference, outlining the agency's direction on cryptocurrency regulation, which mainly includes:Clarifying the "investment contract" framework: The Commission will study and publish a framework that clarifies under what circumstances crypto assets constitute investment contracts, as well as their formation and termination mechanisms.Innovation exemptions: Considering the establishment of innovation exemptions that allow for pilot trading of certain tokenized securities under restricted conditions, including limited trading on new platforms such as automated market makers, to accumulate experience for a long-term regulatory framework.Advancement of rules and guidance: Plans to initiate or advance rulemaking on topics such as financing pathways for crypto assets, broker-dealer custody for non-securities crypto assets (including payment stablecoins), and modernization of transfer agent rules; and continue to provide clarity for non-registration scenarios such as wallets and user interfaces through no-action letters and exemption orders.Regulatory philosophy: Paul Atkins emphasized that regulators should not react to short-term price fluctuations. The responsibility of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is to ensure adequate information disclosure and clear rules, allowing market participants to make decisions in a transparent environment, rather than "supporting prices."

Analysis: Yesterday, the BTC and ETH spot minute charts showed unusual fluctuations, possibly due to a market-making robot experiencing a liquidation

The founder of crypto market maker Wintermute, Evgeny Gaevoy, analyzed the unusual fluctuations in the 1-minute charts of Bitcoin and ETH spot markets on February 8th. He indicated that it is likely due to a market-making bot experiencing a liquidation, with losses potentially reaching tens of millions of dollars. The unusual fluctuations were caused by the bot's losses rather than any malicious intent from market makers, and Wintermute was clearly not involved.Evgeny Gaevoy further expressed skepticism regarding rumors of "large institutions facing liquidation" in the market, and even if such cases do exist, they would not have a medium to long-term impact. In contrast to the past collapses of Three Arrows Capital and FTX, where liquidation news spread quickly and there were clear signs indicating the validity of the liquidations, such as institutions seeking rescue, the current market rumors mainly come from anonymous accounts and have not been confirmed by reliable sources.The leverage in this cycle primarily comes from perpetual contracts. Trading platforms no longer take risks with user assets to invest in low-liquidity assets or extend special credit as they did in the past. The tightening of credit has resulted in institutional credit sizes being less than $2 billion, which limits the impact and makes it difficult to trigger a chain liquidation like in 2022.Previous reports indicated that on February 8th, there were unusual fluctuations in the 1-minute charts of Bitcoin and ETH spot markets, with single-minute amplitudes exceeding 1% and even 3% from 00:05 to 00:17.
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