analysis

Greeks.live posted an analysis on platform X, indicating that Bitcoin is currently maintaining a rebound at $71,000, with the crisis of decline temporarily alleviated. The implied volatility (IV) across various major maturities has shown a significant decline, with the mid to short-term IV dropping over 5% from its peak and more than 3% compared to two days ago. Ethereum's mid to short-term IV has decreased over 8% from its peak and more than 5% compared to two days ago.Skew has fully rebounded, with many put options established during the crisis being closed out, restoring a balance between bearish and bullish forces. This Friday marks the quarterly expiration, with over 40% of options expiring, and the most concentrated $75,000 remains a strong resistance level. (Note: Skew typically refers to the difference in implied volatility of options with different strike prices; an upward movement in this indicator usually indicates a warming of market risk appetite and an increase in bullish sentiment.)

Macquarie Bank global strategists Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry stated in a report that it is still too early to have high expectations for a "peace agreement" in the Middle East to be reached in the coming days, as the demands from both sides still seem difficult to reconcile. The idea of getting the U.S. to abandon its demands regarding Iran's nuclear assets, or that the U.S. would simply withdraw its bases in the Gulf region, is unrealistic.At this stage, it is also unlikely to see Iran abandon its support for its proxy forces. However, this war is unlikely to last beyond mid-April, as by then the threat from Iran is likely to be eliminated. Once the threat is removed, the U.S. will hold the upper hand in any subsequent negotiations.

According to a report by Cointelegraph, an analysis report by Forrester senior analyst Meng Liu states that Stripe's newly launched Machine Payment Protocol (MPP) may mark a turning point for micropayments.The analyst noted that micropayments typically refer to small transactions worth a few cents or a few dollars, which have long struggled to gain widespread adoption due to cumbersome digital checkout processes and reluctance to approve small charges. However, AI agents executing payments while completing tasks, such as paying for data access or using online services, eliminate these barriers.

According to The Block, analysts from the research and brokerage firm Bernstein pointed out that Circle and Coinbase are the main tools for gaining exposure to the growth of stablecoins, due to the partnership between the two companies around USDC and the emerging role of stablecoins in smart agent payments, which could become an important driver of their future growth.In a report released on Monday, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote, "We believe that smart agent payments provide an upside optionality for stablecoins. This is not a factor that currently has a substantial impact on the demand for stablecoins, but in the future smart agent economy, stablecoins may play a certain role." The analysts noted that so-called machine payments refer to transactions initiated, authorized, and completed by software or autonomous devices, rather than by human operation. These payments differ from automatic bill payments or subscription models; they are essentially programmatic, enabling real-time decision-making, price negotiation, and instant settlement without human intervention.Bernstein believes that stablecoins have a natural advantage in this environment because of their programmability, instant settlement capabilities, support for micropayments, and global reach. Payment logic such as escrow, conditional payments, or revenue distribution can be directly embedded in stablecoins, allowing smart agents to complete transactions without connecting to banks or waiting for confirmations.The report also pointed out that transactions can be settled in seconds, allowing AI agents to pay for computing power or data in real-time; high-throughput blockchains and state channels make large-scale micropayments economically viable; at the same time, stablecoins have cross-border attributes, eliminating the need to rely on SWIFT, correspondent banking systems, or foreign exchange conversions, thereby further reducing transaction costs.

According to CoinDesk analysis, as the pressures from scalability challenges, quantum technology, and artificial intelligence continue to grow, Ethereum is at a critical juncture in high-risk balancing strategies. In the first three months of 2026, the Ethereum ecosystem faces multiple structural pressures. Vitalik Buterin sharply criticized the Layer2 scaling path at the beginning of the year, pointing out that many Rollup designs rely on centralized components and isolated environments, failing to truly inherit the security guarantees of the mainnet, leading to ecosystem fragmentation and inconsistent security assumptions.Meanwhile, the Ethereum Foundation has incorporated the threat of quantum computing into its recent planning, advancing research on LeanVM and post-quantum signature schemes. Internally, Tomasz Stańczak, the co-executive director of the Ethereum Foundation, has left after about a year in office, a change seen as a signal of the foundation's internal realignment of priorities. Additionally, the foundation is accelerating its layout for decentralized AI research, attempting to position Ethereum as the "trust layer" for AI systems, used for verifying outputs, coordinating agents, and supporting machine-to-machine economic activities.Overall, Ethereum can no longer handle these issues in isolation; they are interwoven. The network is being pulled in multiple directions simultaneously, making it increasingly difficult to maintain balance. Unlike previous cycles, the current predicament is more about structure than short-term momentum. The short-term focus remains on mainnet scaling, with the planned Glamsterdam upgrade set to be a litmus test to determine whether the Ethereum network can successfully transform into a robust, quantum-resistant "trust layer" supporting the global AI economy.

Data shows that the economic pressure on Bitcoin mining is intensifying. The current average production cost per coin is about $88,000, while the current Bitcoin price is approximately $69,200, meaning miners are losing nearly $19,000 per BTC, resulting in an overall loss of about 21%. Meanwhile, the overall mining difficulty has decreased by about 7.8%, marking the second-largest drop within 2026, reflecting the exit of computing power and rising network pressure.Analysis suggests that rising energy prices, combined with the tense situation in the Middle East, further increase mining costs. Electricity costs remain under pressure, and if miners are forced to sell Bitcoin to maintain operations, it could create additional selling pressure on the market. If Bitcoin prices continue to stay below the cost line and difficulty continues to decrease, the process of miners clearing out may continue, putting pressure on the spot market structure in the short term.

According to CoinDesk, influenced by Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to Iran and threats to strike power facilities, Bitcoin quickly fell back over the weekend, dropping below the $69,200 mark, with a 24-hour decline of about 2.2%, and a weekly decline expanding to 3.1%. Affected by market sentiment, mainstream crypto assets weakened simultaneously: Ethereum fell to about $2,114, while XRP, BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, and others recorded varying degrees of decline.This week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and its dovish stance should have supported risk assets, but the ongoing war risk news has made traders hesitant to make significant unilateral bets. Analysts believe that if Iran does not restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz by the deadline, the conflict may escalate further to the level of energy infrastructure, compounded by disruptions to about 20% of global oil and gas transportation, which may continue to suppress the performance of risk assets.

According to BitcoinNews, if oil prices rise to $180 in the coming months, BTC may face pressure.Energy data tracking agency Vortexa predicts that oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz will drop to about 7.5 million barrels per day, a trend that could drive up inflation, delay interest rate cuts, and tighten liquidity. Against this backdrop, BTC could fall to $51,000.

Cryptoquant analyst Darkfost pointed out that data shows the spot trading volume of altcoins on major exchanges has significantly declined compared to more active periods. Currently, Binance's altcoin trading volume is about $7.7 billion, while other major exchanges combined account for about $18.8 billion, far below the levels of $40 to $50 billion for Binance and $63 to $91 billion for other exchanges during the peaks in October 2025 and February. In relative terms, Binance currently accounts for about 40% of the total global altcoin trading volume.Analysis indicates that the aforementioned peak trading volumes coincide with the formation of a phase top in the crypto market, during which FOMO sentiment drove retail investors to flood in, while early investors took profits by leveraging the peak in demand. In the current environment, ongoing geopolitical tensions have suppressed market risk appetite, and altcoins continue to lag behind Bitcoin in performance. The analysis also suggests that historical patterns show that periods of low market interest, when most investors are on the sidelines, often represent the most attractive window for positioning.

According to CoinDesk, the current trend of Bitcoin is highly similar to the price structure that ultimately triggered a drop to $60,000 between November 2025 and January 2026. From a technical perspective, since hitting the bottom in early February, Bitcoin has formed a narrow, slightly upward-sloping channel between two trend lines, mirroring the previous sideways movement after the drop from $100,000.At that time, the market also exhibited a slow, oscillating upward crawl, ultimately leading to a false breakout where the price plummeted straight from about $90,000 to nearly $60,000. Technical analysis refers to such patterns as "counter-trend rebounds," which are small recoveries that occur within a downtrend. The current rebound lacks explosive momentum, which is a typical signal of bull exhaustion; the market may just be catching its breath, waiting for bears to regain strength.$65,800 is a key support level. If Bitcoin falls below the current lower boundary of the channel at around $65,800, it would mean that bears have regained control; if it breaks upward through the channel, the downtrend may lose momentum, and bulls could be poised for a strong counterattack. Bitcoin is currently at a critical decision point, and the direction remains unclear.

According to Cointelegraph analysis, the Bitcoin price hovering around $70,000 may suggest that the market bottom has not yet arrived.Bitcoin fell below $69,000 on Thursday, retreating back into a six-week trading range. This pullback coincided with an increase in sell-offs in the Bitcoin futures market and stagnation in demand from U.S. investors. The imbalance between spot and perpetual contracts is evident, with the cumulative trading volume difference decreasing by $40.64 million, and perpetual contracts down by $506.75 million, indicating stronger selling pressure from leveraged traders. However, the funding rate has turned positive at 0.05%, suggesting that bulls are in control, and the order book shows buying support near $70,000.From a short-term chart perspective, Bitcoin is forming a technical pattern similar to that from March 6 to 8, when the price rebounded after a pullback. The relative strength index is forming a bullish divergence, and liquidation data also supports this structure. If it quickly recovers to $70,000, it may open up a move towards $76,000, with a key turning point at $72,000. If it falls below $68,300, it could test $65,000 to $62,000.

Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on platform X that today 23,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.88, a maximum pain point of $70,000, and a nominal value of $1.6 billion. 176,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.04, a maximum pain point of $2,150, and a nominal value of $370 million.The current rebound in the crypto market has been declared over, with Bitcoin briefly falling below the $70,000 threshold. In the past week, $75,000 has often been mentioned as a key resistance level, with 5% of options expiring at this price by the end of the month. The final breakthrough failed, falling back to around $70,000. Next Friday is the quarterly settlement, and from the options market data, $75,000 is the price with the most concentrated positions, making it an absolute resistance level. The lower levels of $65,000/$62,000/$60,000 are all areas of dense positions and can be considered as support for a decline.This week, the implied volatility (IV) and realized volatility (RV) of major expiration options have remained basically unchanged, with the main expiration IV for BTC at 50% and for ETH at 70%. The RV continues to decline, causing the volatility risk premium (VRP) to rise continuously. Only options accounting for 5% of the total positions are expiring, continuing to hit record lows. Despite the volatility, Bitcoin's trading activity remains at extremely low levels. Due to the price decline, the skew has decreased across the board, and the market is still in a bear phase, with bullish forces being very weak.

According to Cointelegraph, the revenue from decentralized applications in the Solana ecosystem has dropped to an 18-month low, and the SOL price is at risk of testing $80 again. SOL has fallen 11% to $87 in the past three days, triggering the liquidation of $25 million in long positions.The perpetual contract funding rate is close to 0%, indicating weak demand from bulls, with bears dominating leverage demand over the past month. The delta skew in the options market has risen to 12%, with put option premiums trading, showing that professional traders lack confidence in the $87 support level. Solana DApps revenue has decreased from $36 million two months ago to $22 million, marking an 18-month low.Although Solana remains a leader in DEX trading volume, it faces fierce competition in the perpetual contract trading space from Hyperliquid, which holds over 80% market share.

According to VanEck's latest Bitcoin on-chain report, Bitcoin options traders' bearish sentiment has risen to its highest level in five years, with the put/call ratio peaking at 0.84 last month, an average of 0.77, placing it in the most bearish 9% range since mid-2019. The total size of open interest in options has surpassed $33 billion.At the same time, the premium for put options has also reached an all-time high, indicating that institutional investors are buying significant amounts of downside protection. Analysts point out that the current extreme defensive posture may stem from macro factors such as the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, regulatory risks, and liquidity concerns, but there are also views suggesting that historically, peaks in bearish sentiment often signal a market bottom.

Ethereum has dropped to around $2,100, with a daily decline of 7%, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and higher inflation expectations. In the past 24 hours, the total amount of long liquidations in the crypto market reached $492.8 million, with over $144 million in ETH long positions being forcibly liquidated.More critically, CoinGlass data shows that if ETH falls below $2,000, it will trigger over $2.5 billion in leveraged long liquidations across all trading platforms, meaning that if the bearish momentum continues, ETH will face a greater risk of a waterfall decline. Additionally, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net outflow of over $55.5 million on Wednesday, ending a streak of six consecutive days of net inflows. In the past eight FOMC meetings, ETH has declined after seven of them.The typical post-FOMC pullback ranges from 16% to 23%, with deeper deleveraging phases seeing declines of 33% to 43%. From a technical perspective, $2,100 is currently a key support level, closely coinciding with the upper boundary of the ascending triangle and the 50-day moving average. If the bulls can hold this position, the next target is $2,575 (100-day moving average), and above that is the triangle measurement target of $2,700. If $2,100 is lost, ETH will retest the triangle support line around $2,000; if it further breaks below the 20-day moving average, it faces the risk of dropping to $1,800.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has fallen back to around $70,000, Ethereum has dropped to $2,160, and the overall cryptocurrency market is under pressure. On the macro level, two major negative factors are overlapping. First, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, maintaining the federal funds rate range at 3.5% to 3.75%, pausing the rate cut cycle, which has strengthened the dollar and put pressure on risk assets. Second, after Israel attacked Iran's South Pars gas field, Iran launched attacks on key energy infrastructure in the Gulf, with Brent crude oil rising to $114, Oman crude rising to $150, and European natural gas futures soaring about 25% to above $78 per megawatt-hour.In terms of derivatives, nearly $600 million in leveraged contract positions were forcibly liquidated on crypto platforms in the past 24 hours, with long positions being the majority, indicating that the overnight drop caught many long holders off guard. The total market's futures open interest decreased by 5.6% to $10.69 billion, with Ethereum futures open interest dropping by 9%. The funding rates for mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL have turned negative, with short-selling demand rising. The 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) for Bitcoin has increased by over 5% to 58.36%, ending the previous week's downward trend, while the skew for Bitcoin and Ethereum put options on Deribit has strengthened simultaneously, raising concerns about market downturns.

According to Cointelegraph, although the price of Bitcoin has fallen below $71,000, data shows that its bullish momentum has not faded.Bitcoin fell 7% after reaching $76,000 on Tuesday, due to rising oil prices from Israel's attack on Iranian gas facilities and the U.S. PPI exceeding expectations, causing U.S. stocks to decline simultaneously. Analysts point out that the continued buying of U.S.-listed ETFs and strategies provides spot demand support for Bitcoin. The leverage level for Bitcoin bulls is low, and even if the price drops another 5%, the risk of a cascading liquidation is minimal.Rising inflation concerns negatively impact fixed income returns, paving the way for funds to eventually rotate from gold to Bitcoin. The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remained below the neutral range when the price broke through $76,000, indicating that the upward trend is driven by spot demand rather than derivative speculation. Gold prices have shown signs of fatigue, and if funds flow out of gold, it could become a catalyst for Bitcoin's continued rise.

According to CoinDesk, the conflict in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices has caused a significant drop in Bitcoin's hash rate, putting pressure on miners and the overall market.In the past week, the network hash rate has decreased by about 8%, to 920 EH/s, suggesting a possible entry into a new phase of miner sell-offs, which is usually accompanied by downward price pressure. The current Bitcoin price is below $72,000, down about 5% from Monday's peak. The network is expected to undergo a hash rate difficulty adjustment of about 8%, marking the second-largest negative adjustment in the past five years. Previously, in mid-February, Bitcoin also experienced a historic significant difficulty adjustment, indicating extreme volatility in mining activity.Analysis indicates that the pressure faced by miners stems from intensified competition, persistently low transaction fees, and Bitcoin price fluctuations, which have compressed profit margins. Many publicly listed mining companies have begun to diversify their operations, including AI and high-performance computing, while increasing Bitcoin sales to maintain operations, which also creates some resistance to Bitcoin prices.

According to Cointelegraph, influenced by the unexpected U.S. inflation data, Bitcoin has fallen back to around $72,000.Data shows that the U.S. February PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations, continuing the recent upward trend in inflation. The data was released just hours before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and although the market generally expects no rate adjustment this time, market fluctuations still depend on Chairman Jerome Powell's statements and policy guidance.Singapore trading firm QCP Capital pointed out that macro factors remain the dominant variable in the current market. As rising oil prices weaken rate cut expectations, the interest rate environment's support for the crypto market is diminishing. Currently, traders are generally turning cautious. Analyst Jelle stated that Bitcoin is still hindered below a key resistance level, and it is "safer to remain cautious" before the FOMC meeting, warning of the risk of breaking below support. Some opinions even suggest that the market is still in a bear phase.