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Analyst Jukan posted on platform X, stating that Nvidia chips are currently still in short supply, but to maintain the premium for chip scarcity, the company needs to continue supporting emerging cloud service providers (Neocloud). If the new CEO adopts a more cautious attitude towards this business model, it may lead to pressure on GPU spot prices, a decline in cloud service providers' profit margins, and prompt them to turn to alternatives such as AMD or Google TPU, thereby weakening Nvidia's market dominance and supply chain control.Jukan stated that Jensen Huang has been working hard to maintain Nvidia's growth flywheel, which not only helps to expand chip demand but also ensures the computing power utilization of emerging cloud service providers. Huang originally hoped to gradually let go once the emerging cloud service providers could independently order the next generation of GPUs, but it is currently uncertain whether the successor CEO is willing to wait.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of short-term Bitcoin holders has dropped to 0.98, remaining in negative territory since October 30, indicating that this group has begun to realize losses when selling Bitcoin.This metric measures the profit and loss realized when UTXOs are spent. Each UTXO has its own cost basis; when Bitcoin is moved, old UTXOs are destroyed, and new UTXOs are generated at new realization prices. SOPR calculates the difference between the two. This round only counts short-term holders, whose monthly average once reached 1.013 but has now fallen back to a neutral level of 1, erasing average profits.Darkfost noted that recent data suggests the market is leaning towards a capitulation phase. He believes that in a long-term bull market, a negative SOPR often corresponds to buying opportunities, but the monthly average has yet to reflect this, and capitulation may continue for several more days before reaching extremes.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that since October, Bitcoin has undergone a chip distribution phase, resulting in a correction of about 15%. Currently, losses dominate after the profit-taking phase of short-term holders (STH).In the past 24 hours, short-term holders have sent 48,500 BTC to exchanges, of which 47,300 were sent at a loss, making it one of the strongest STH capitulation behaviors in recent months.

CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain stated that Binance's estimated leverage ratio for XRP has dropped to about 0.14, the lowest level in three months.

In October, the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations. After the data was released, BTC briefly fell to around $73,000, and the market began to bet on a 50 basis point rate hike in December. In response, Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the probability of a 50 basis point hike is low, and a 25 basis point increase remains the baseline scenario. The current decline is more akin to a pricing correction.There are three reasons: The Federal Reserve values the continuity of data, and historically, there are very few cases where a single month's CPI jump has changed the pace of rate hikes; a single month of exceeding expectations is insufficient to overturn the gradual path; the current inflation stickiness mainly stems from the lagged transmission of tariffs and rents, which will naturally diminish, and marginal employment is also weakening. The committee has no reason to impose aggressive tightening at the peak of transmission; the credit spread has widened from 93 basis points to 348 basis points, financial conditions have effectively tightened, and adding another 50 basis points would actively create financial stability risks.In the crypto market, funding rates have turned negative, and the open interest in perpetual contracts has decreased by nearly 20% in a week. The fear and greed index has fallen into the deep fear zone, and the clearing of leverage has been relatively sufficient, limiting the space for further short-term declines. However, an oversold situation does not mean an immediate rebound; confirmation is needed for CPI to fall in the next two months. If inflation exceeds expectations for two consecutive months and a 50 basis point hike is realized, a trend decline will begin, but currently, this scenario seems unlikely.Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, the whale @fiyopi recently opened a long position of 24,500 ETH (worth 50.59 million USD) on Hyperliquid at 2,207.5 USD, currently facing a loss of 3.5 million USD. One of their addresses is named "Machi is ugly dog."

Cryptocurrency analyst Tom Wan posted on the X platform that the market share of Ethereum stablecoins has dropped to 46%, a historic low. Over the past year, the supply of stablecoins on the Ethereum chain has decreased by $32.5 billion, while the total supply of stablecoins in the entire market has only decreased by about $10 billion.During the same period, the supply of Tron stablecoins increased by $16.2 billion, raising its market share to 32%; Hyperliquid and Solana increased by $1.6 billion each. Additionally, the newly launched blockchains this year, including Arc, X Layer, Robinhood Chain, Tempo, and Monad, collectively added about $5.2 billion in stablecoin supply.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that the funding rate for XRP perpetual contracts on Binance has risen to its highest level in over a year. The last time such a high rate was observed was in October 2025, shortly after XRP set a record of $3.55. Currently, XRP has retraced about 30% from its previous peak, but the XRP derivative positions on Binance still lean bullish, showing signs of a crowded long position.Meanwhile, the spot XRP ETF recorded one of its worst performances of the year, with a net outflow of approximately 9.37 million XRP, valued at $10.4 million, contrasting with the bullish positions on Binance. Darkfost noted that shifts in market sentiment often occur in the later stages of a rebound, and as prices pull back, maintaining a bullish preference may face risks.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin traded below $75,000 on Tuesday morning as the market awaited the U.S. October CPI data. Economists expect the overall CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month, with core CPI rising 0.2%, both slowing compared to September. Due to the U.S. government shutdown last October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to compile a complete index, so there is no year-over-year data this time.BRN analysts stated that any easing of inflation expectations would benefit risk assets, but Bitcoin needs real buying pressure. Until ETF fund flows turn positive and the Federal Reserve shifts to a dovish stance, the path of least resistance remains downward. Bitget Wallet analysts believe that moderate inflation data could trigger a brief rebound, but Bitcoin's sustained recovery depends on improved liquidity and spot demand. Analysts pointed out that if Bitcoin closes below $73,000 on a daily basis, it could trigger momentum selling down to $70,000; the $73,000 to $74,000 range is a key support zone, and reclaiming and holding above $80,000 would indicate increased demand.

CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA pointed out that the price trend of Ethereum is diverging from staking activity. The staking rate for Ethereum 2 has increased by about 4.32% since May, with approximately 36.32% of the total ETH supply currently staked.Although the price of ETH on Binance has dropped from around $2,800 in October to $2,132, the staking rate continues to rise, indicating that investors have not significantly reduced their staking commitments due to the weak price. Analysts believe that a higher staking participation rate reduces the supply of ETH available for trading, which may provide price support when demand is strong, but staked ETH is not permanently locked, as validators can initiate withdrawals.At the same time, total staking inflows have decreased by 40.11%, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between long-term staking growth and daily inflow activity. Overall, Ethereum maintains a potentially supportive supply-side dynamic in the medium to long term; if the market can absorb selling pressure and attract sufficient demand, ETH may lay the groundwork for a stronger upward trend.

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost posted on the X platform, stating that while the cryptocurrency market is weakening, the trading volume of tokenized gold products has rebounded against the trend. The total trading volume of gold-backed products on the Binance platform has exceeded 8 billion dollars since its launch; excluding the peak trading volume during the initial launch period, the trading volume in the past 7 days has reached a new high of over 325 million dollars, with a single-day trading volume of 78 million dollars.According to CoinGecko data, the total market capitalization of tokenized assets is currently about 50 billion dollars, with commodity assets nearing 6 billion dollars in market value, and gold holding a significant share. However, Darkfost reminds that the price of gold has retraced over 30% since the beginning of the year and is currently stabilizing around 4,000 dollars per ounce.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that the market capitalization of altcoins has shrunk by about 200 billion dollars, with about 70% of altcoins on Binance falling below the 200-day moving average. From mid-August to the end of September, the market capitalization of altcoins, excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins, had increased by 320 billion dollars, but the subsequent pullback erased most of the gains.Darkfost stated that in mid-August, 82% of altcoins on Binance were below the 200-day moving average, and by early October, this proportion had dropped to 10%, with nearly 90% above that average. Following this, the macro and political environment deteriorated, with central banks in the US, Europe, and the UK raising interest rates, and the results of the midterm elections increasing uncertainty. The stock market, especially technology stocks, saw a significant decline, with the Nasdaq falling 14% from recent highs.As a result, the market capitalization of altcoins has shrunk by about 200 billion dollars, erasing nearly two-thirds of the gains from August to September. Currently, about 70% of altcoins on Binance have fallen below the 200-day moving average, and this proportion is approaching 80% again. Darkfost indicated that historically, such extreme situations sometimes signal a trend reversal.

The $6.3 billion security incident at the cryptocurrency exchange Binance involves affected assets with a cumulative value across 10 blockchains. CertiK analyst Jonathan Riss stated that public blockchain records show a hot wallet on Ethereum was repeatedly emptied by attackers after new deposits arrived; on-chain records cannot reveal Binance's internal signature controls and transfer limits.Jonathan Riss pointed out that if the limits are executed by the application that initiated the signature request, those limits may be bypassed if the application is compromised; limits executed independently by the signature system may restrict transfers. Binance previously stated that attackers transferred funds out of the regular withdrawal process through an internal wallet signature service.Idan Ofrat, co-founder and Chief Product Officer of the crypto asset custody company Fireblocks, stated that exchange hot wallets typically hold enough funds to cover expected withdrawals for a few days, often representing a low single-digit percentage of managed assets. Alex Tobol, Chief Technology Officer of Walt, stated that replenishing funds from cold wallets to hot wallets should require separate fund management decisions and manual approvals.

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost posted that a total of 418.5 million XRP flowed out of Binance, valued at approximately 540 million dollars based on the price at that time, exceeding the 315 million coins on the day of the 6.3 billion dollar hack incident at Binance, setting the largest single-day outflow record in nearly 9 months.This large outflow occurred as XRP rebounded above 1.3 dollars after a 27% correction from its peak in late September. Darkfost pointed out that a significant amount of XRP leaving the exchange is often seen as a signal for investors to accumulate assets, and it also reduces the supply of tokens available for immediate sale in the market, but this does not necessarily mean that prices will rise. Some of the outflows may also stem from internal fund transfers within the exchange, and it remains to be seen whether this trend can continue.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that, calculated over a 90-day rolling window, the cumulative Z-score of the correlation between Bitcoin returns and S&P 500 returns has risen above zero for the first time since 2015, reaching 98.5. A score above 0 indicates that the correlation of Bitcoin is higher than usual, while a score below 0 indicates lower correlation. The cumulative Z-score summarizes deviations to present trends. Darkfost noted that this trend has been clearly upward since the low point, and this breakthrough is symbolic, as Bitcoin is increasingly moving in tandem with the stock market.Darkfost also pointed out that the recent momentum of this correlation is slowing down. The rate of change in the short-term 90-day correlation has fallen from recent highs to 6.3%. The correlation between the two remains above average, but it is no longer strengthening as rapidly as before. He believes this is mainly due to market maturation, as more financial professionals are increasingly using Bitcoin as a conventional financial tool with the improvement of ETFs and trading channels.

According to Jinshi, John Luke Tanner, portfolio manager and head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors, stated in a report that after the Democratic Party made progress in the gubernatorial elections, the market still needs to pay attention to whether AI capital expenditures and data center construction will be affected, or if they will simply shift to states with more favorable government policies.Tanner indicated that he believes related investments will slow down, but the extent of the slowdown may not be as significant as the market is concerned about. When discussing whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further, he stated that if the main pressure on inflation comes from energy prices and AI expenditures, then the 25 basis point hike in September is likely to be the last of this rate hike cycle. He also mentioned that government gridlock typically drags down GDP growth, which could open up space for further declines across the entire yield curve.

On-chain data analysis platform CryptoQuant certified analyst CryptoZeno stated that the current market structure of Bitcoin shows that the cycle heat is cooling down, but there are no extreme signals commonly seen near significant historical turning points. The 30-day moving average of the Bitcoin Cycle Extremum Index has dropped to 15.8%, which is in the observation or mild pressure range.Currently, the BTC price has retraced about 46% from its previous historical high, but the index remains far below the levels that represent active or extreme phases. The Cycle Extremum Oscillation Indicator is also showing cautious signals, with its 30-day moving average close to the historical range bottom and significantly below the 1.0 threshold. In previous active market phases in early 2021 and during multiple periods from 2024 to 2025, this indicator had significantly increased, but no similar changes have been observed so far. CryptoZeno indicated that BTC is currently closer to an adjustment and low activity phase rather than a confirmed cycle bottom, and the low indicator readings do not mean that selling pressure has been exhausted. There may still be continued consolidation or even a new round of declines, and attention should be paid to whether the Cycle Extremum Index can continue to rise back to the active phase, as well as whether the oscillation indicator can recover simultaneously.

Bitwise analyst Camran Khosravi posted on the X platform, stating that as the results of the U.S. midterm elections are being confirmed, the number of senators supporting cryptocurrency is currently 51, down from 52 before the elections (including two candidates from Alaska who both support cryptocurrency).In this election, the Democratic Party successfully secured 7 Senate seats previously controlled by the Republican Party, with 4 of the winners receiving an A rating from the cryptocurrency advocacy organization Stand With Crypto. Khosravi believes that cryptocurrency is becoming a bipartisan issue.

On-chain analyst Ai Yi stated that a certain whale redeemed assets from Compound during a drop this morning, and then sold 1,470 ETH (worth 3.31 million USD), 63.46 WBTC, and cbBTC (worth 4.868 million USD) on-chain. This address had not operated for 22 days prior.