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CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on the X platform, stating that the adjusted realized price range model calibrated to Bitcoin's current circulating supply shows that this round of Bitcoin falling to the key range of $59,000 marks the beginning of a true medium to long-term bottoming process. Bottoming is not a short-term process and will not be completed in one to two weeks; the baseline scenario is expected to take about six months.Axel Adler Jr emphasized that although Bitcoin has seen some recent increases, the core factor driving market stabilization is not emotional recovery or local rebounds, but rather the return of long-term real demand. This means that the bottom may only be truly established when the market begins to reprice future value and spot buying continues to recover.

MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe stated that Bitcoin may not need a new story or catalyst to drive it back to $100,000—Bitcoin has not reached that price for nearly five months. In a post on X on Friday, van de Poppe posed the question, "What kind of narrative can push Bitcoin to $100,000?" He then stated, "No narrative is needed to push the price." He added, "Prices rise, and narratives will emerge. That’s why relying solely on math, statistics, and logic is enough to win, and why the current ranges of Bitcoin are still good accumulation zones."Many participants in the crypto market still believe that Bitcoin needs a strong narrative to drive prices upward. Recently, the market's focus has been on potential catalysts such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, regulatory progress in the U.S., and inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Some participants also pointed to the potential passage of the CLARITY Act as a factor that could drive Bitcoin upward. However, veteran trader Peter Brandt stated that the CLARITY Act is a positive step for the industry but is unlikely to be the main catalyst for pushing Bitcoin prices higher. Brandt said, "Is this a macro development that shakes the world? No. It's certainly necessary, but it is not an event that should redefine value." Meanwhile, White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt stated this week at the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas that a "major announcement" regarding President Trump's Bitcoin reserves will be made in a few weeks.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez stated that as May begins, Bitcoin is still oscillating within a narrow range, while order clusters at key price levels are forming, which may become the core area for large-scale liquidations.Upper resistance: $80,000. This position serves as a major psychological and technical resistance, gathering a large amount of short liquidity. If broken, it may trigger a short squeeze, pushing the price quickly up to $84,000. Lower support: If $80,000 fails to break, the lower liquidity range includes $75,000, $73,000, and $70,000, which may support a pullback. He pointed out that the current market is in a tug-of-war phase between bulls and bears, and if the price effectively breaks through the $75,000 to $80,000 range on a daily basis, it may determine the overall trend for the month.

Crypto analyst Murphy posted on the X platform that the holdings of new Bitcoin buyers have been steadily increasing recently, rising from a low of 3.38 million to 3.68 million.Although there is still a distance of over 1 million from the peak of the bull market, it at least indicates that as the macro environment improves, investors' risk appetite is gradually returning. Compared to the last cycle, this is roughly equivalent to the scale of new buyers in mid-August 2022. At that time, it was also in the latter half of a bear market. BTC rebounded from a low of $19,000 to $24,000 (a 26% rebound); this time, BTC rebounded from $62,000 to $79,000 (a 27% rebound); the situation is similar.However, the difference is that to hold the same amount of BTC, the money spent is 3-4 times that of the past, yet it still cannot stop so many strong new buyers from entering the market.

According to data from Greeks.live, a total of 23,000 BTC options are set to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.13, a maximum pain point of $76,000, and a nominal value of $1.74 billion. Additionally, 175,000 ETH options will also expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.94, a maximum pain point of $2,325, and a nominal value of $400 million.Greeks.live analyst Adam stated that this week's market fluctuations are small, with Bitcoin hovering around $78,000, and market sentiment gradually becoming calmer. The short-term RV has significantly decreased, combined with monthly settlements releasing nearly a quarter of the position margin, leading to a noticeable decline in the implied volatility of major expiration options this week. The major expiration IV of Bitcoin has fallen below 40%, while the major expiration IV of ETH has decreased even more, with short-term IV dropping below 50% and medium to long-term also falling below 60%. From the main options data, the Skew remains relatively stable, and the market's directional sentiment remains slightly bearish. This week, only 6% of options are expiring, with about 25% of positions at the end of the month and about 30% of positions at the end of June. Block trades are relatively inactive, all of which are signals of consolidation. In April of this year, Bitcoin performed significantly better in both price and popularity compared to the previous three months, but the altcoin market has seen limited recovery. Currently, the focus is mainly on Bitcoin, and trading altcoins will require further waiting.

According to analyst Murphy, the on-chain holdings of new Bitcoin buyers (short-term holders) have continued to rebound, increasing from a temporary low of 3.38 million to 3.68 million.Although this scale is still over 1 million coins away from the peak of the last bull market, analysts believe that as the macro environment improves, investors' risk appetite is gradually recovering. From a historical cycle comparison, the current holdings of new buyers are roughly equivalent to the levels seen in mid-August 2022 (the latter half of the bear market). At that time, the BTC price rebounded from a low of about $19,000 to $24,000, an increase of about 26%; while this time, BTC rebounded from $62,000 to $79,000, an increase of about 27%, showing a similar rebound magnitude.It is worth noting that although the amount of capital required to accumulate the same number of BTC is now 3 to 4 times that of the past, there are still many strong new buyers entering the market. This phenomenon indicates that the market depth, capital capacity, and participant structure of Bitcoin have fundamentally changed, further solidifying its status as a mainstream asset.

According to Jinshi reports, analysts Anna and Stuart pointed out that today's decision to maintain interest rates is expected, but what stands out is the number of dissenting opinions. Powell presided over the meeting with the most dissent during his tenure, and this policy statement elevated the description of inflation from "somewhat elevated" to "elevated." The apparent divisions within the committee highlight the challenges Kevin Warsh faces in achieving the goal of interest rate cuts; unless there is a significant deterioration in the labor market, the committee is unlikely to act quickly on rate cuts.

According to Jinshi News, Pepperstone analyst Michael Brown stated that traders may reduce their exposure to risk assets before the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on April 30. He pointed out that given the upcoming event risks, many participants will want to cut back on their positions. In addition, traders are also aware that there is still no good news regarding the Middle East conflict, with no signs of a US-Iran peace agreement, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

Trump has asked aides to prepare for an extended U.S. Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing Brent crude oil prices to surpass $111 per barrel, while Bitcoin remains within a narrow fluctuation range. Trump stated on Tuesday that Iran is in a "state of collapse." Tehran has indicated that it may accept a temporary agreement to reopen the strait if Washington lifts the blockade on Iranian ports.Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, stated in a report that Bitcoin's relative calm reflects a change in market structure. He said, "The oversupply has finally been digested, and the panic sellers driven by macro shifts or quantum concerns have long exited, making the selling power in the market significantly weaker than it was a few months ago." Ebtikar added, "Bitcoin's sensitivity to regulatory noise or central bank policies is far lower than people imagine. Its sensitivity is purely a function of broader volatility, and since we are currently in a relatively calm trading range, there is no immediate urgency to exit."Bitget analysts marked $75,000 as a key level that has maintained an upward range since the end of March; if effectively broken down, it could open space for further declines. A rebound from current levels back to $80,000 would maintain the integrity of the rebound structure and pave the way for a retest of the resistance level that has consistently rejected Bitcoin's attempts to rise since February.

According to Jinshi News, Asian stock markets are expected to perform weakly when they open on Tuesday, as investors turn their attention to the earnings reports of U.S. tech giants with a total market capitalization of nearly $16 trillion. Walter Todd, president and chief investment officer of Greenwood Capital Associates, stated that the U.S. stock market has rebounded to historical highs, seemingly ignoring the ongoing geopolitical risks, mainly due to upward revisions in earnings expectations and improved market sentiment. He warned that any cracks in optimistic expectations could pose significant risks to market trends.

According to Jinshi reports, Danske Bank analyst Asger Wilhelm Dalsjo stated in a report that as the Middle East conflict enters its ninth week, central banks will assess its current impact and future expectations. This week, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank will hold policy meetings. The analyst said, "This week, monetary policy decisions will become the main driving force for the market." It is expected that the aforementioned five central banks will keep interest rates unchanged, but their assessments of the economic impact of the Middle East conflict will be closely monitored.

VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush wrote an analysis stating that Bitcoin has shown two historically bullish signals: negative funding rates and a decline in hash rate concentration, while volatility has cooled down.As tensions between the U.S. and Iran eased, Bitcoin's realized volatility dropped from 56% to 41%, while the 7-day average funding rate turned negative to -1.8%, marking the lowest level since 2023.Historically, negative funding rates typically indicate strong future returns: since 2020, the average 30-day return for Bitcoin during periods of negative funding rates has been +11.5%, compared to an overall return of +4.5%, with a hit rate as high as 77%. Funding rates below -5% have brought a +19.4% return over a 30-day period.Additionally, hash rate has fallen to the 16th percentile in the past 30 days, marking the most concentrated decline since the mining ban in 2021. In the last 7 instances of hash rate decline, Bitcoin's price increased 6 times after 90 days, with a median increase of +37.7%.

Crypto analyst Murphy posted on the X platform, stating that by overlaying three sets of data (Options Gamma Exposure, Options Open Interest by Strike Price, Options ATM Implied Volatility), the impact on BTC from an options perspective shows that $80,000 is currently the first effective resistance above BTC. This position simultaneously has high Call OI, positive Gamma, and low IV conditions.As the price moves upward, the dynamic hedging of market makers can easily create selling pressure; the lower the IV, the higher the marginal sensitivity of market makers to hedge adjustments. Therefore, the thickness of this wall (OI of 7,200 BTC + positive Gamma magnitude) makes $80,000 a "hard nut to crack" in May. Once it breaks through and approaches $82,000, due to the presence of a larger scale of negative Gamma (OI of 4,644 BTC), the market may quickly switch from being suppressed to "amplified volatility" mode.

According to on-chain analyst Specter, the token TRADOOR is suspected of having high manipulation and wash trading. Market information shows that TRADOOR has surged by as much as 900% since March 2026, but at 2 AM this morning, its price plummeted by 90% in just 30 minutes.Specter pointed out that the team's main wallet controls 70.12% of the supply and had distributed 17.93 million TRADOOR to more than a dozen associated addresses, with some addresses engaging in obvious wash trading between September 19 and 21, 2025.Since November 2025, several wallets associated with the team have made deposits to Bitget. Therefore, the 11% supply held on the Bitget platform may actually be controlled by the Tradoor team or its affiliates.

According to Jin Shi reports, the U.S. stock market fell on Thursday amid volatile trading, as hopes for a quick resolution to the Iran conflict gradually faded. Analyst Jay Hatfield stated that investors are struggling to digest mixed earnings reports, and concerns about the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence on the software industry have resurfaced. He pointed out that the market had previously risen significantly, and some investors are looking to reduce their positions, using the war as an excuse is not necessarily a bad thing.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that Bitcoin ETF fund flows have turned positive across the board, stating "all rolling periods we track are positive," marking the first time in several months. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT has seen cumulative inflows of about $3 billion, placing it in the top 1% of all ETF fund flow performances. However, Eric Balchunas pointed out that there are still several billion dollars needed to return to the historical cumulative fund flow high of $62.8 billion, but at least it indicates that the sentiment around Bitcoin ETF funds has clearly improved and market demand is recovering.

According to on-chain analyst Murphy (@Murphychen888), the BTC price has risen to around $79,000, and the current open interest (OI) in the futures market has returned to a recent high of 472,000 BTC, with market leverage continuing to accumulate.During yesterday's peak, short sellers paid an average funding fee of up to $604,000 per hour to long positions, which, although lower than the peak, still far exceeds the 7-day average ($197,000). Murphy pointed out that the high OI combined with negative premiums intensifies the situation; once the price rebounds, short sellers forced to close their positions or facing liquidation will create buying pressure, triggering a short squeeze. Historically, rebounds have occurred under similar conditions on March 9 and April 13, and the current short ratio is not ideal.

Grayscale analyst Zach Pandl disclosed data showing that Bitcoin has rebounded over 20% from its low of about $63,000 in early February, with the current price around $76,000, slightly above the average cost (realized price) of about $74,000 for buyers in the past 1 to 3 months, indicating that most short-term investors have returned to the breakeven zone.Analysis suggests that if the price continues to rise, more recent buyers will enter a profitable state, which is often seen as one of the important signals at the beginning of a bull market. However, Bitcoin is still below the peak from last October. Market views indicate that this round of recovery may have formed a relatively solid phase bottom in the range of $65,000 to $70,000.

Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel stated that Bitcoin's net flow has shifted from positive to negative since early March, peaking at a strong outflow of -300,000 BTC on March 25, and as of today, it remains in a net outflow state of -98,000 BTC.During the same period, the BTC reserves on trading platforms decreased from 2.786 million to 2.681 million, declining for seven consecutive weeks, with a total reduction of over 105,000 BTC. There was no panic inflow during the price correction in April, indicating that tokens continue to be held by long-term holders. The current pattern is interpreted as a synchronized accumulation signal, and there is a need to be cautious of the potential risk of net flow returning to positive territory.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that Bitcoin ETF inflows have surpassed $1 billion this year, successfully reversing the previous net outflow situation and achieving positive growth.The next key observation metric is the cumulative historical net inflow scale (the most important and challenging indicator), which previously peaked at $62.8 billion and is currently around $58 billion, leaving a gap of about $5 billion to reach a new historical high. In the development process of asset classes, the key is to control the scale of outflows during market downturns to reduce subsequent repair pressure; in this regard, the performance of spot Bitcoin ETFs has outperformed other popular asset classes.