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CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin Sell-Side Risk Ratio (SSRR) entered the red zone for the first time when BTC dropped to $60,000, with the volume of losses exceeding the volume of profits, reflecting the deep pressure on holders. Historically, when this indicator enters the red zone, it often coincides with the formation of a bottom.Meanwhile, the CVDD valuation model shows that the structural bottom is around $48,300, a level that has almost never been closed below in Bitcoin's history. Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded to $66,000, and the smoothed SSRR has begun to turn upward. Analysts believe that $60,000 is a behavioral pressure zone, while $48,000 is the boundary for structural risk. The subsequent confirmation of recovery signals is when the smoothed SSRR exits the red zone and the price stabilizes above $60,000; the main risk is the emergence of new red signals at lower levels and testing the $48,000 support. Overall, the market is gradually shifting towards an accumulation pattern.

According to Cointelegraph, analysts say that the recovery of Bitcoin depends on the success of the US-Iran peace agreement. On-chain data shows that despite a recent rebound, Bitcoin still appears weak. Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG Research, stated that although Bitcoin briefly recovered to $67,000, "momentum remains weak, with declining trading volume and stagnant on-chain indicators suggesting a lack of confidence in the rebound, which may quickly fade." If the US-Iran ceasefire agreement breaks down, Bitcoin will face a "volatile path," potentially gaining buying interest as a hedge asset, only to be pushed towards key support levels by broader risk-averse sentiment.Swissblock stated on Monday that Bitcoin's price momentum and OBV indicator remain in a state of "weak momentum and low participation," both being negative values. The price momentum indicator is at -1, and OBV is at 1.7 million, at a multi-year low. Swissblock pointed out that in a typical bear market, momentum weakens first, followed by a contraction in OBV, leading to a downward price breakout. History shows that stronger recovery signals appear when both turn positive, and until then, "the risk of retesting the lows remains."

According to Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITA) officially took effect last Friday afternoon and is expected to begin trading around this Thursday, with the specific timing possibly being moved up or delayed by a day.

According to analyst Killa's monitoring, this week the BTC range of $67,200 to $68,500 is a key observation area. The current cycle still has several months left, and market fluctuations are a reasonable expectation.

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost stated on social media that Bitcoin is currently facing one of the most severe U.S. Treasury yield environments since its inception. Although historically, the U.S. federal funds rate and the U.S. dollar index have reached higher levels, the current long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 30-year and 10-year Treasury yields fluctuating between 4.5% and 5%. Coupled with the market's rising expectations for another interest rate hike within the year, this has led to sustained high funding costs and a tightening liquidity environment.Analysis suggests that in a high-yield environment, investors are more inclined to allocate to low-risk fixed-income assets, thereby diminishing the attractiveness of risk assets, including Bitcoin. Historical experience shows that rising U.S. Treasury yields are often accompanied by tightening financial conditions, which puts pressure on Bitcoin's price movements. The current market is at a critical turning point, with the risk premium of risk assets relative to long-term Treasuries being compressed.However, if the macroeconomic outlook becomes clearer in the future, and investors regain confidence in the bond market, capital inflows into the bond market may drive yields down, thereby expanding the risk premium and improving the investment environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. The market generally believes that this process may take several months, and its evolution will largely depend on the development of U.S. government policies and the overall economic situation.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that BlackRock has submitted an 8-A filing for its Bitcoin premium yield ETF BITA. This step usually means a formal launch within a week, and he expects the product to start trading next Thursday.

Crypto analyst Ali Charts posted that Bitcoin is about to break through. Currently, attention is focused on the symmetrical triangle structure forming for BTC, with resistance at $63,000 and support at $61,000. This range will determine the direction of the next move. If BTC effectively closes outside this range on the hourly chart, a price expansion of about 10% may be triggered as momentum is released. It is essential to closely monitor the volume changes near the boundaries of this range to capture early signals of a sustained breakout.

According to Mike McGlone, Chief Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg, Bitcoin has significantly led risk assets in previous upward cycles, and this leading relationship may be reversing in the current phase. In his latest comments, he stated that Bitcoin has previously "driven risk assets upward," but now "may also drive them downward," and believes that based on its comparison chart with the S&P 500 scaled up by 10 times, the overall β assets may enter a downward year in 2026.He emphasized that since 2009, the annual total return of the S&P 500 has only declined in 2018 and 2022, both of which coincided with Bitcoin's downward cycles and corresponded to the U.S. midterm election cycles. He believes the difference in the current market is that structural pressures are accumulating: inflation has re-emerged as a core political issue, while stock market volatility has remained low for an extended period, but risk indicators for commodities like gold and oil have continued to rise. This combination of "low volatility stocks + high-risk commodities" is historically rare.Additionally, McGlone stated that since 2026, both Bitcoin and gold have shown signs of "mean reversion," which may indicate that the risk asset cycle is entering a repricing phase. He pointed out that Bitcoin and gold have retraced about 50% from their 2025 peak (around $126,000), while the total return index for U.S. Treasuries may be forming a phase bottom from a low area not seen since 1983.Currently, the market still lacks key confirmation signals: specifically, the S&P 500 to GDP ratio has fallen from near its highest level since 1928. If this indicator begins to turn, it may signify that a broader risk asset cycle is entering a structural adjustment.

Last week, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF reported a net outflow of $1.72 billion, experiencing the largest single-week net outflow since February 2025. The largest Bitcoin ETF by net assets, BlackRock's IBIT, recorded an outflow of $1.34 billion last week, marking the largest single-week net outflow since its launch in January 2024. Overall, the ETF continued the negative outflow trend that began in May, ultimately recording a monthly net outflow of $2.43 billion in May.Andri Fauzan Adziima, head of research at Bitrue Research Institute, stated that the main driver of last week's ETF outflows was macroeconomic headlines, particularly recent U.S. employment data. The strong May 2026 (non-farm payroll) report confirmed the resilience of the labor market, lowering the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the short term and pushing up U.S. Treasury yields, making income-generating bonds much more attractive than non-yielding Bitcoin.Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties have triggered widespread risk-averse sentiment in recent trading days, affecting not only the digital asset market but also other sectors including artificial intelligence, tech stocks, and gold. It is expected that the outflow pressure will continue in early June, but will stabilize or turn slightly positive by mid to late June, as panic sentiment bottoms out, seasonal factors in June provide some support, and any macro-level easing will trigger inflows.

On-chain analyst PlanB expressed the view on the X platform that, from the ETH/BTC comparison chart, Ethereum's overall performance over the past decade has been significantly weaker than Bitcoin.Data shows that the current ETH/BTC ratio is approximately 0.026, which is comparable to the level in March 2016, indicating that ETH has returned to the value position it held relative to BTC ten years ago. During the Bitcoin bull market of 2023/2024, ETH did not experience a significant increase, a similar situation also occurred in 2017 and 2021, and even now, Ethereum still lacks upward momentum relative to Bitcoin.

According to a report by Fortune, David Trainer, CEO of research firm New Constructs, analyzed that to support a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, SpaceX needs to increase its annual revenue to about $1.1 trillion by 2035, which is nearly a 60-fold increase from $18.7 billion in 2025, equivalent to maintaining an average annual revenue growth rate of about 50% over the next decade.According to the prospectus previously submitted by SpaceX, the company's revenue in 2025 is projected to be $18.7 billion, with a net loss of $4.9 billion. Trainer calculated based on a discounted cash flow model that if investors want to achieve an annualized return of about 10% over the next decade, SpaceX must achieve the aforementioned growth targets.Analysis indicates that if it reaches a revenue scale of $1.1 trillion, SpaceX's revenue would account for about 2.4% of the U.S. GDP in 2035, with an economic scale exceeding the entire U.S. utility industry and approaching three-quarters of the U.S. transportation industry.Trainer stated that although the artificial intelligence market has vast potential, many competitors, including Alphabet, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and OpenAI, are competing for market share, and SpaceX lacks historical precedent to achieve such a scale of growth. He believes that SpaceX could not only become the largest IPO in history but also the most expensive in terms of valuation.

According to Jinshi reports, institutional analyst Anstey stated when evaluating the U.S. non-farm data that considering the Federal Reserve's mission to maintain price stability and achieve full employment, the current job market does not seem to need assistance. At the same time, the inflation rate is far above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. It is expected that next week's CPI data will show the core inflation rate rising to 2.9%, with overall inflation soaring 4.2% year-on-year. It would be surprising if Federal Reserve policymakers do not further hint at a possible interest rate hike in 2026.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin has dropped 14% since June, with a noticeable acceleration in the recent pullback. The inflow of Bitcoin from whales (single transactions over 100 BTC) on the Binance platform has surged, recording a peak of about 8,200 BTC on June 2, followed by over 6,400 BTC on June 4. The monthly average of whale inflows on Binance has increased from about 1,200 BTC since mid-April to now over 2,800 BTC, more than doubling in a few weeks.This indicates that the pullback is prompting whales to transfer BTC back to exchanges with the intention to sell, but this behavior seems more like emotional risk management rather than a strategic decision. The last time whale inflows reached such levels was in February when Bitcoin fell below $60,000, which will bring additional selling pressure in the short term.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on the X platform that Bitcoin fell 12.5% in the past week, and the proportion of profitable supply has dropped to 55%, which is significantly low. Historically, bear markets have pushed this indicator below 50%, indicating that unrealized losses dominate the market. In February of this year, this indicator reached 53%, and at the current rate, the 50% threshold is about to be breached. Darkfost stated that while this is a bearish signal in the short term, such periods have historically been profit opportunities for long-term investors.

According to Jinshi, Wall Street analysts have begun to adopt a skeptical attitude after two months of continuous gains in the stock market, and researchers are downgrading the ratings of S&P 500 constituent companies. Data from Jefferies shows that the proportion of constituent stocks receiving a "buy" rating is nearly the same as it was four years ago, far below the peak levels during the internet bubble. Jefferies Senior Vice President Andrew Greenberg stated that the sell-side has not yet shown any signs of buying.

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in a recent report that the Bitcoin market has entered a significant volatility compression phase. The realized volatility over the past week (30-day moving average) has dropped from about 39 in early March this year to the current level of around 17, with a quarterly decline of over 56%, approaching historical low levels. Currently, the BTC price remains around $73,500, still below the approximately $79,500 200-day moving average. Historical experience shows that extremely low volatility often indicates that the market is accumulating energy, typically followed by a significant directional trend. However, volatility compression itself does not provide directional signals; it merely indicates that the market is about to make a new trend choice.Meanwhile, the Delta indicator, which reflects changes in market premiums (the difference between market capitalization growth rate and realized market capitalization growth rate), has been in negative territory for six consecutive months, further dropping to about -0.0013 in May. This indicator suggests that the growth rate of Bitcoin's market capitalization continues to lag behind the growth rate of realized market capitalization, indicating a contraction in market risk appetite and valuation premium.The current market exhibits a combination of "low volatility + cooling premiums," which is not a typical overheated bull market structure but rather resembles a consolidation phase after emotional cooling. If BTC subsequently returns above the 200-day moving average, and Delta rebounds to near zero, it will indicate that the market has re-entered a risk appetite expansion cycle; conversely, if volatility releases downward and Delta continues to deteriorate, it may enter a deeper risk-averse phase.In summary, Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market direction remains neutral, but the degree of compression is at a high level, and the probability of significant directional volatility in the future is continuously increasing.

Analyst Ali tweeted that the TD Sequential buy signal has appeared on the 12-hour chart for Bitcoin, which may rebound to $75,000.

Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, posted on platform X, stating, "Bitcoin is at a critical price level, and if it cannot hold, it will drop below $65,000." However, he believes that a new low will not occur. In that case, Bitcoin would fall below $61,000, where the 200-day moving average is located. Further declines would be meaningless, as this would not yield good results in any market cycle. However, this structure is different from the decline in February. The reason is that the resistance level in February failed to convert into a support level.Currently, the $71,000 area remains a key support level. Poppe believes that this support must hold to prevent further pullbacks. If it can hold, then the $61,000-$65,000 range will be an excellent buying opportunity for Bitcoin in the coming years. If this support holds, then the second phase target is to break through $76,600. If this price level is breached, a new high is imminent, and a strong altcoin summer rally is likely to be seen.

Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that Bitcoin's volatility and correlation are increasingly approaching gold levels. This trend is significantly underestimated in the current market adjustment and may be a positive signal amid recent market turbulence.According to the 60-day historical volatility comparison data between IBIT and the Gold ETF (GLD) since its launch, it can be seen that Bitcoin's volatility structure is gradually aligning with gold, indicating that its asset characteristics may be changing.Eric Balchunas added that despite the highly volatile market environment, the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT) has continued to outperform U.S. stocks since the escalation of the Iran conflict, achieving more than double the excess returns compared to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since the approval of the BlackRock ETF.