analyst

Bitcoin treasury company The Smarter Web Company research and content analyst Miller Cole stated on platform X that currently 1 Bitcoin is approximately exchangeable for 18.55 ounces of gold, whereas a month ago it was about 15.3 ounces.This Friday's Bitcoin price trend has pushed the BTC/XAU ratio back above the 50-week simple moving average, which is a bullish signal. It is expected that during this cycle in the coming years, the BTC/XAU ratio will reach new highs.

Cryptocurrency analyst tedpillows stated: Bitcoin looks set to ultimately close above the 50-week moving average.He mentioned that Bitcoin only needs to break through $83,000 to confirm that the bottom has been reached.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that in the past 24 hours, Bitcoin rose from $76,300 to $77,400. The Bitcoin liquidation pressure oscillator increased from +0.48 to +54.52, indicating that short liquidations are dominant; the active order pressure oscillator rose from -1.88 to +0.86, showing that market buying temporarily exceeded selling.However, this positive indicator lasted only about 4 hours, and the buyer's advantage has not been fully confirmed. If the indicator falls back below zero and long liquidations increase, the price may come under pressure again.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that Bitcoin ETFs have advantages over gold ETFs, including the fact that the Bitcoin investor demographic is younger; as the market matures, volatility decreases, and correlation with other assets stabilizes, Bitcoin will attract more large institutional adoption.In addition, Bitcoin ETFs have stronger market enthusiasm and sales resources, with dozens of wholesalers familiar with both the crypto market and traditional investors currently promoting and educating the market, while gold ETFs lack similar promotional strength.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin is currently operating above the "active supply cost basis" of $71,300, which represents the average cost of BTC actually circulating in the market and may form significant support.On the other hand, the "capital input cost basis" of $79,800 constitutes resistance, as BTC has previously faced obstacles at this level, with some loss-making positions choosing to exit after approaching breakeven.

Regarding the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in the September meeting, Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Andy pointed out that what truly deserves attention is the comprehensive hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's stance. All 12 officials rarely supported the decision unanimously, and the dot plot clearly indicates another rate hike within the year, with tightening becoming a consensus.The core message conveyed by the meeting is that the Federal Reserve is determined to rebuild its credibility against inflation at all costs. The economic forecast summary raised growth expectations and lowered the unemployment rate, reflecting confidence in a soft landing; however, the path for core inflation to decline has been significantly delayed, indicating that the higher-ups have accepted the reality of "higher for longer." Chairman Waller's statement is particularly crucial, placing anti-inflation efforts as an absolute priority. Even though the current economic fundamentals are robust and oil price fluctuations are supply-side factors, the Fed still chooses to respond with a tightening stance. This "better to be too tight than too loose" position has temporarily pushed up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, while suppressing gold.For the cryptocurrency market, uncertainty has actually decreased. A clearer policy path helps compress risk premiums, which is not a bad thing for risk assets in the medium to long term. The key going forward lies in data validation: if employment and growth remain strong, rate hikes may continue but at a slower pace; if the economy shows cracks, there is still room for a policy shift. Overall, the Federal Reserve is trading short-term pain for long-term policy credibility.

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts stated that the Clarity Act is "not completely dead" after failing the procedural vote in the Senate, but the window for passing it before the end of this congressional session is "extremely narrow."Analysts expect the focus to shift to the rule-making of the SEC and CFTC, noting that the durability of institutional rules is not as strong as laws passed by Congress.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud stated that after the clear bill was blocked in the Senate procedural vote, Bitcoin fell from the $77,800 level to $74,910. This round of selling pressure is event-driven, and historically similar shocks are usually digested within 5 to 10 trading days. The actual cost of the bill's failure falls in terms of timing: Congress is on recess this month, the midterm elections in November, effectively pushing the legislative window to 2027, with institutional incremental businesses such as bank custody, brokerage distribution, and tokenized securities collectively postponed by a year. The target of this pressure is valuation, and the price response is one-time.Among the factors affecting the single-day decline, the bill accounts for about 60% to 70%, while macro factors account for 30% to 40%; when viewed on the scale of the entire correction, the ratio reverses to 70% macro and 30% bill. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stands at 5.005%, oil prices surged to $105, and interest rate hike expectations have reignited, forming the main pricing line for this week, with the bill merely pushing the already accumulated selling pressure. The bill is the fuse, while interest rates are the explosives. Coinbase fell by 10%, Circle dropped by 11%, significantly higher than Bitcoin's decline, indicating that the market does not believe the bill's failure has harmed Bitcoin's value storage attribute, and ETF funds and institutional allocations are still providing support.What is under pressure is the legislative premium for compliant business operations: the excessive gains of crypto stocks over the past few months largely hinged on the anticipated surge in trading volume, institutional custody, and stablecoin adoption after the bill's passage, and this premium has now been liquidated. Crypto stocks are essentially high-duration, high-leverage derivatives of Bitcoin; a 3% fluctuation in Bitcoin is amplified layer by layer through trading volume, fees, and reserve earnings, ultimately reflecting as a 10% decline in stock prices.

According to the Economic Daily, in the past six months, CCL manufacturers have raised product prices by about 20% to 30% due to the overall increase in upstream material prices. Most PCB manufacturers have not been able to pass on these costs quickly enough, resulting in a time lag of 2 to 3 months, which has eroded profit margins. Institutional investors indicate that starting from the third quarter of this year, some PCB manufacturers will increase prices, and the benefits are expected to drive a rebound in the profitability of related manufacturers.Analysts state that in terms of substrates, electronic fiberglass cloth led by T glass and copper foil drilling needles are still in short supply, with T glass experiencing the most severe shortage, with some manufacturers facing a gap of up to 20%. This gap is expected to continue into next year. It is anticipated that in the second half of this year, substrate manufacturers will enter a supply-demand imbalance driven by the high demand for AI GPUs and ASIC high-performance computing, as well as the continued tightness of key raw materials. Substrate manufacturers will continue to adopt rolling price adjustments, with prices still having double-digit upward potential.Additionally, due to the sustained high demand related to AI and the specification upgrades driven by new generation products, there is continued optimism that CCL manufacturers will benefit from both price and volume increases. With raw material prices remaining tight and the delivery times for high-end CCL continuing to extend, the trend of price increases remains unchanged. There is continued optimism for the future development of Taiwanese CCL manufacturers such as Taiflex and Taisil. Meanwhile, as the substrate gap gradually widens, it benefits the bargaining power of substrate manufacturers, and the trend of price increases will continue, maintaining a positive outlook on the future performance of Taiwanese substrate manufacturers, including Nanya Technology and other supply chain partners.

CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 stated that Bitcoin is breaking through the bottom and starting a bullish trend. The spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders (LTH) is rising above 1, and the market is shifting from a bearish phase to a neutral one, initiating a comprehensive upward trend.He emphasized that in this cycle, the SOPR has not yet exceeded 6, while historically, cycle tops usually form within this range. This means that long-term holders have not yet experienced a profit-taking phase, and a true bull market rally has not yet occurred. Everything prior has been a preparatory phase for the current upward trend, with LTH holdings at historically high levels and continuing to increase until recently. He believes that the real upward trend is starting now, and the cycle top will appear in the profit-taking range when the SOPR exceeds 6.

StoneX analyst Mark Palmer pointed out in a report to clients that the rapid growth of Robinhood Chain is driven by four main factors, including the strong brand effect of the brokerage, the permissionless design, subsidized gas fees, and the continuously strengthening flywheel effect between meme coins and tokenized stocks. Since its launch on July 1, the TVL of Robinhood Chain has approached $1 billion, with a single-day DEX trading volume reaching $1.88 billion on Sunday, accounting for more than half of Uniswap's total trading volume.Palmer stated that the appeal of Robinhood Chain is "impressive by any standard." First is the brand effect of Robinhood, including the viral marketing effect brought by CEO Vlad Tenev's attention to the CASHCAT token account; second is the permissionless design, which allows developers to freely issue tokens, with Pons reportedly facilitating about 10,000 token issuances daily, and approximately 25,000 on September 2; third is the incentive economy, where Robinhood subsidizes gas fees for wallet exchanges over $5.Finally, there is the flywheel effect between meme coins and tokenized stocks, with a typical example being the token issuance platform Long.xyz built on the chain, which allows community tokens to be paired with Robinhood's tokenized stocks for issuance.

CryptoQuant certified analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that in the past 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has slightly increased by 0.4%, but selling pressure in the derivatives market has significantly intensified. The Bitcoin derivatives pressure index has dropped from -25.36 to -60.8, remaining below zero since September 6, indicating that sellers still dominate.Meanwhile, Coinbase continues to trade at a discount relative to Binance, with the latest Coinbase premium index at -0.0455%, a 48-hour average of -0.0323%, and further weakening in the past 24 hours.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Charts posted on platform X that the last breakout of the triangle pattern drove Ethereum up 31% in just three days.Ali Charts stated that a new triangle pattern is forming now. If ETH breaks out again, a similar trend could push it up to $3000.

Analyst Darkfost posted on platform X that Bitcoin is about to enter a phase of 365 days without reaching a new all-time high (ATH). In previous cycles, Bitcoin typically set a new high shortly after the halving, but this pattern seems to be changing. Meanwhile, the time intervals from each cycle peak to the next all-time high are also shortening: from 2014 to 2017 it was 1180 days, from 2017 to 2020 it was 1094 days, and from 2021 to 2024 it has shortened to 849 days. Darkfost believes that if this trend continues, this round of Bitcoin may reach a new historical high more quickly. The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur around April 2028.

Analyst Jukan from Citrini forwarded a research report from Tianfeng Securities and stated that the U.S. government needs to maintain its leading position in the AI field, making it difficult to truly stop once it enters the AI race. Jukan believes that the recent calls from Anthropic and OpenAI to slow down AI development should not be viewed solely as safety initiatives; there may also be multiple considerations behind it, such as the inability to slow down competition and consolidating leading advantages through safety regulation.Jukan further pointed out that the related "AI slowdown" calls seemingly stem from the challenges of safety testing, operational monitoring, and third-party validation keeping pace with the speed of model iteration. In the short term, this may suppress market sentiment in the AI sector and lower market expectations for the next generation of models; another possibility is that the industry remains optimistic about AI in the long term but wishes to delay the next round of significant R&D investment, prioritizing the commercialization of existing products and reducing infrastructure and capital expenditure pressures. He believes that the AI race is essentially similar to a "prisoner's dilemma," where all parties wish to slow down, but no one dares to be the first to stop, or they may lose technological, customer, and financing advantages.Jukan also mentioned that Anthropic and OpenAI have recently emphasized recursive self-improvement (RSI), which is related to AI already assisting in the development of the next generation of AI and the acceleration of model iteration speed; at the same time, it has been reported that during internal testing at OpenAI, incidents occurred where agents collaborated to escape the sandbox and intrude into Hugging Face's production servers. Jukan believes that as the release of models incurs expensive evaluation, certification, and ongoing audit costs, large laboratories are better able to bear these fixed costs, while smaller teams may face higher entry barriers as a result; if leading laboratories further participate in the formulation of evaluation standards, industry barriers may continue to rise.

Market observers indicate that Anthropic executives are calling for a slowdown in technological development, which may temporarily drag down chip manufacturers and supply chain stocks, but the long-term impact may be limited.Investors will assess whether a more cautious approach to developing advanced models will suppress profits. Nevertheless, the demand for chips, energy, and computing power continues to exceed supply, and any weakness may be short-lived.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that this cycle may be the one with the most activity from long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin. He observed related changes through the CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) heatmap, which tracks the number of days BTC is held before being spent or transferred; the transfer of BTC by long-term holders is usually associated with selling intentions.The increase in LTH activity during this cycle may benefit from the market liquidity brought by spot ETFs and companies establishing Bitcoin treasury reserves. However, the rise in CDD is not only seen at market tops; it may also reflect the capitulation behavior of some holders.He added that Coinbase previously transferred 800,000 BTC, a large portion of which had been held for over 6 months. Such asset migrations can also cause a temporary rise in CDD, but they are considered incidental events. Currently, with Bitcoin's recent rise, LTH activity has slightly increased, possibly because some holders wish to realize quick profits; however, overall, related activities are still relatively calm for 2026, and long-term holders are still waiting.

After the CPI was announced yesterday, Ethereum briefly surged nearly 10%, quickly rising from $2433 to $2667. According to analyst alicharts, this short-term spike was driven by whales, during which the number of Ethereum transactions worth over $1 million increased by nearly 14%.However, alicharts also stated that Ethereum is now approaching a major resistance level. Previously, over 10 million ETH were traded between $2700 and $2800, forming a significant supply barrier. This is the key range that whales must break through for Ethereum to rise to $3000.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the recent rise in Bitcoin has driven investor sentiment to its most optimistic level in nearly two years, with related market sentiment indicators briefly breaking 89, entering the "extreme greed" zone, the last time a similar level was seen was in March 2024.Darkfost pointed out that when market sentiment is excessively optimistic or pessimistic, it is often worth paying attention to potential market turning points. Currently, this indicator has started to retreat from its previous euphoric levels, gradually returning to a relatively normal range, while the Bitcoin price is attempting to hold its current level.

Analyst Giulia Petroni pointed out that due to the surge in oil prices, rising bond yields, and increasing expectations of interest rate hikes, gold prices are expected to drop more than 2% this week. New York gold futures prices once fell by 0.5%, to $4,383.9 per ounce.The market is closely watching the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be released on Friday. Traders expect a 67% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates next week.