bullish

glassnode published its weekly market outlook, indicating that Bitcoin's price momentum has increased by 51.7%, breaking through previous highs, reflecting a significant enhancement in spot buying power and a strengthening of market buying support.On the other hand, Bitcoin's futures open interest continues to rise, and the options Delta skew shows a moderation of bearish sentiment. Combined with a cooling of on-chain activity, this suggests that the market is currently in a consolidation phase but with improved sentiment. glassnode stated that from a profitability perspective, market pressure has eased. Overall, various indicators collectively suggest that the market is exhibiting strong bullish sentiment, increased investor participation, and enhanced risk appetite, although there are also signs of cautious sentiment and market stabilization.

Amid a significant rebound in Bitcoin whale activity and a sharp decline in inflows to trading platforms, traders are setting Bitcoin's target price at $88,000. This week, after four days of consolidation between $70,000 and $72,000, Bitcoin reached an intraday high of $73,255 on Friday.The current price structure resembles the breakout trend of the second quarter of 2025—at that time, the price had long been consolidating below the moving averages, and once it broke the descending trend line, it quickly surged to the next supply zone. Currently, $76,000 constitutes a key trigger point, which also corresponds to the upper boundary of the descending trend line formed since Bitcoin's decline from around $126,000. Once broken, the psychological resistance that has suppressed rebounds for the past few months may be eliminated.On-chain data shows that crypto analyst Amr Taha pointed out that in the past 30 days, inflows of Bitcoin from whales to exchanges have dropped to $2.96 billion, marking the first time since June 2025 that it has fallen below $3 billion, while this figure was as high as $8 billion in February this year. Meanwhile, as of April 9, long-term holders have realized a market value change of $49 billion, indicating that accumulation behavior has restarted.Taha stated that these indicators collectively reflect that chips are shifting from weak hands to strong hands, showing a trend of steady accumulation rather than aggressive selling. The CoinGlass liquidity map shows that a large amount of visible liquidity is concentrated in the $86,000 to $90,000 range.

Benchmark reiterated its bullish outlook on Securitize in its latest research report, giving it a target price of $16 post-IPO (stock code SECZ), believing it is poised to significantly benefit from the wave of tokenized assets.Analysis indicates that the total market capitalization of companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange is approximately $44 trillion. If Securitize captures just 1 basis point (0.01%) of that market, its platform asset size could double from the current approximately $4 billion. Benchmark emphasizes that Securitize is not only a tokenization platform but also possesses a "complete regulatory qualification system" that includes broker-dealer, transfer agent, and trading functions, which is expected to generate diversified income throughout the entire lifecycle of asset issuance, secondary trading, and custody services. Additionally, the company has been designated as the digital transfer agent for the tokenized securities platform that the New York Stock Exchange plans to launch, which supports 24/7 trading. Meanwhile, its tokenized U.S. Treasury fund BUIDL, in collaboration with BlackRock, has approached $3 billion, indicating rapid growth in the institutional-level RWA market. However, Benchmark also cautions that factors such as regulatory uncertainty, fragmented liquidity, and technological risks may still exert pressure on its valuation.

Liquid Capital founder Jack Yi stated during a live broadcast at Binance Square on April 8 that since entering the cryptocurrency industry at the end of 2015 and experiencing two to three cycles of bull and bear markets, he still tends to be "long-term bullish," but the premise is not to be overly optimistic and to face the market's cyclicality and "huge volatility." In his view, the pullbacks and rebounds of crypto assets far exceed those of traditional markets, and investors need to maintain clarity and risk awareness amid the volatility.Regarding the market pressure this year, Yi attributed it to multiple external factors: the unfulfilled expectations of interest rate cuts at the macro level, geopolitical disturbances, slower-than-expected policy advancements, and the cooling of certain narratives (such as "national strategy"); combined with the impact of the four-year cycle, he believes the correction may exceed the original plan. However, he emphasized that this is more about the external financial environment and cycles amplifying short-term volatility, and his core judgment on ETH from a long-term perspective has not changed.On the strategic level, he believes that the difficulty of primary investments has significantly increased after 2022-2023: early-stage primary project cycles are shorter, and liquidity is released faster, but as market structures and unlocking/circulation arrangements change, the window of opportunity for investors has clearly narrowed, making primary investments "not as easy as before." Therefore, he is gradually reducing his involvement in primary investments and focusing more on research and opportunity capture in the secondary market.In addition, he emphasized that AI is accelerating the reshaping of the competitive landscape: over the past two to three months, he has invested more effort into learning about AI and promoting the transformation of invested companies towards AI, believing that individuals and teams that do not understand or cannot use AI in the future may be quickly eliminated. In response to external controversies such as "pumping and dumping," he stated that investment ultimately depends on asset value and trends, and large markets are difficult to be driven by a single participant.

BIT released today's chart stating that market trading volume has significantly shrunk, lacking clear directional catalysts. While Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $1.3 billion, Ethereum continues to face capital outflows, further exacerbating the divergence in demand between the two.From a macro perspective, despite ongoing geopolitical risks, volatility continues to converge, making put strategies increasingly favored. Recent changes in the Ethereum options market are particularly notable: the proportion of sold upside call options has risen sharply, indicating a lack of confidence in a short-term rebound for ETH. A few months ago, traders were actively buying upside exposure; now the trend has shifted, with more Ethereum traders opting to earn premiums by selling call options rather than betting on directional increases.

VanEck's research director Matthew Sigel analyzed in a post on the X platform that the current protective demand in the Bitcoin derivatives market has risen to the historical 99th percentile, which is typically seen as a "contrarian buy signal" under extreme risk-averse market sentiment, and he judges that the market is currently suitable for establishing long positions.The VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (NODE), which Matthew Sigel also manages, has risen 27% since its inception, while Bitcoin has fallen 33% during the same period, achieving lower volatility performance through diversified allocation and focusing on profitable sectors. However, he also warns that if the massive capital expenditures in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector do not generate corresponding returns, it could pose substantial pressure on the market, especially in the context of a concentration in S&P 500 constituents.Note: Percentile is a statistical position concept, with the 99th percentile representing a relatively extreme level, and the 50th percentile representing the median level.

According to Jinshi reports, as market expectations rise that the United States will launch more military strikes against Iran, the dollar index has risen during the Asian afternoon trading session. Two analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Global Economic and Market Research Department stated that the U.S. is doubling the size of its A-10 attack aircraft fleet in the Middle East, and the mobilization of military assets and troops has increased the likelihood of a ground invasion. Based on the dollar's safe-haven status, analysts remain optimistic about its trend.

According to the official announcement, the Gate TradFi stock section has launched 57 contracts for difference trading pairs including BLSH (Bullish), HON (Honeywell), SOFI (SoFi Technologies), HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise), TGT (Target), BE (Bloom Energy), LRCX (Lam Research), CL (Colgate), BEN (Franklin Resources), ACN (Accenture), OKLO (Oklo), STRL (Sterling Infrastructure), WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals), CLSK (CleanSpark), CIM (Chimera Investment), UMC (United Microelectronics), TRMB (Trimble Navigation), TLN (Talen Energy), HUT (Hut 8 Mining), BITF (Bitfarms), PEG (Public Service Enterprise Group), ISRG (Intuitive Surgical), CRCL (Circle Internet), CLS (Tianhong Technology), VRT (Vertiv), UPS (United Parcel Service), CRDO (Credo Technology), DLTR (Dollar Tree), EQR (Equity Residential), IP (International Paper), BLK (BlackRock), MAT (Mattel), ASML (ASML), USB (U.S. Bancorp), OKTA (Okta), LAC (Lithium Americas), TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ), TTWO (Take-Two Interactive Software), AALG (American Airlines), AMD (Advanced Micro Devices), TRV (The Travelers Companies), BRKB (Berkshire Hathaway), TTD (The Trade Desk), EXPE (Expedia), MFA (MFA Financial), DELL (Dell Technologies), CDNS (Cadence Design Systems), GILD (Gilead Sciences), PM (Philip Morris), APP (AppLovin), COP (ConocoPhillips), WBD (Warner Bros. Discovery), BHP (BHP Group), CEG (Constellation Energy), VST (Vistra Energy), FCX (Freeport-McMoRan), and VRTX (Vertex Pharmaceuticals), supporting 4x fixed leverage.In addition, the Gate TradFi stock section will launch a new asset carnival from March 31 at 17:00 to April 10 at 17:00 (UTC+8). During the event, users who sign up will receive 30 USDT and can share a prize pool of 100,000 USDT by participating in the trading of newly launched assets, with a maximum individual reward of 3,100 USDT.

According to Bloomberg, after gold prices experienced the largest sell-off in years, bargain buyers have started to enter the gold market. As of Thursday's close, gold prices had fallen 19% from the closing peak in January, approaching the 20% threshold that traditionally marks the beginning of a bear market. However, by Friday, buyers re-entered the market, pushing gold prices up by about 3%.George Efstathopoulos, a fund manager at Fidelity International, stated that this pullback presents a buying opportunity once tensions in the Middle East subside. Inflation risks, fiscal pressures, and bond credit issues remain structural positives for gold. Analysts also pointed out that the Iran conflict could trigger central banks to sell gold, or at least slow down their purchasing pace. Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities, believes that given that central banks have been cornerstone buyers in this bull market, large-scale direct selling would have a more immediate impact on prices and a more destructive effect on market sentiment. However, for now, the broader trend may be a gradual slowing of central bank gold purchases rather than a complete shift to selling.

According to Arkham data, at 08:20, 166 BTC (worth approximately 11.32 million USD) were transferred from multiple anonymous addresses to Bullish.com.

Research and brokerage firm Bernstein stated that Bitcoin has likely bottomed out and is expected to continue rising, while maintaining its price target of $150,000 by 2026.Despite the stock price dropping 50% from its peak, Strategy (stock code: MSTR) has shown strong resilience, currently holding about 3.6% of the total Bitcoin supply (approximately $53.5 billion). Bernstein believes that MSTR is a high beta investment vehicle for Bitcoin, and its balance sheet is relatively robust. Strategy has not reduced its exposure; instead, it has continued to increase its Bitcoin holdings at recent lows, raising $7.3 billion through financing in 2026 to expand its position.

According to Cointelegraph, after Trump announced a temporary easing of tensions with Iran and sought negotiations, Bitcoin briefly rose by 4%, while oil prices subsequently fell by 14% to $85 per barrel for WTI, and the S&P 500 index rose by 3%. However, Bitcoin derivatives data continues to raise doubts, and the market lacks confidence in the $68,000 support level.In the futures market, the annualized premium for Bitcoin's 2-month futures reported 2% on Monday, below the typical range of 4% to 8% corresponding to longer settlement periods under neutral conditions, indicating insufficient demand for long leverage. This lack of confidence has persisted over the past month, even though prices briefly rebounded to around $76,000 previously.In the options market, the $80,000 call option expiring on April 24 on the Deribit trading platform was priced at 0.017 BTC (approximately $1,207), and under the conditions of a 31-day expiration and 48% implied volatility, the market priced the probability of Bitcoin rising to $80,000 during this period at only 20%. Such a low expectation for a 13% increase within the month is rare in the typically optimistic crypto market.The Federal Reserve's stance on pausing interest rate cuts makes it difficult for investors to exit fixed-income positions, and traders are likely to remain cautious until oil prices fall to $75 or below. Unless additional catalysts emerge, the likelihood of Bitcoin traders turning bullish is low, especially in the context of ongoing lack of conviction in on-chain data and derivatives indicators.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler posted on the X platform that the Coinbase premium index has rebounded from the previously negative range reflecting a collapse in demand from U.S. investors to a neutral to weak level. However, this indicator has not yet stabilized in the positive range, indicating that comprehensive bullish momentum from U.S. investors has not yet been confirmed, and market sentiment remains cautious.

CoinGlass stated, "During yesterday's decline, Bitcoin's open interest (OI) actually increased as the price fell, indicating that shorts were clearly adding positions, forming a relatively clean short position buildup. This wave of movement ultimately touched around $68,750.Currently, the price has rebounded, but OI has shown almost no significant change, which usually means this rebound is not driven by new longs. Therefore, it currently resembles range-bound fluctuations rather than a clear trend reversal. Moving forward, it is important to focus on the changes in Bitcoin's price and OI."

According to Cointelegraph, although the price of Bitcoin has fallen below $71,000, data shows that its bullish momentum has not faded.Bitcoin fell 7% after reaching $76,000 on Tuesday, due to rising oil prices from Israel's attack on Iranian gas facilities and the U.S. PPI exceeding expectations, causing U.S. stocks to decline simultaneously. Analysts point out that the continued buying of U.S.-listed ETFs and strategies provides spot demand support for Bitcoin. The leverage level for Bitcoin bulls is low, and even if the price drops another 5%, the risk of a cascading liquidation is minimal.Rising inflation concerns negatively impact fixed income returns, paving the way for funds to eventually rotate from gold to Bitcoin. The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remained below the neutral range when the price broke through $76,000, indicating that the upward trend is driven by spot demand rather than derivative speculation. Gold prices have shown signs of fatigue, and if funds flow out of gold, it could become a catalyst for Bitcoin's continued rise.

Trader Eugene posted on Telegram that he has switched to a long position and pointed out that despite the global risk sentiment declining, the crypto market still maintains a strong performance. This is the first time since the price collapsed from the $60,000 high that a significant relative strength signal has appeared.Eugene stated that his trading style tends to favor buying on breakouts after a consolidation range, rather than bottom-fishing, to control risk. He also observed that several altcoins are forming a natural rounded bottom pattern, believing that the crypto market has a higher probability of moving upward in the short term.He further noted that if BTC effectively breaks through $74,000, it will likely trigger a comprehensive rally in the crypto market, and he expects mainstream coins ETH and SOL to return to previous ranges, with target prices of $2,400 and $100, respectively.

Agent Garrett Jin of "1011 Insider Whale" stated that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has entered its 16th day, and since February 27, oil prices have risen by about 45%. The price of Brent crude oil has risen above $103, and there are still no signs of a ceasefire. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) may only be able to cover about 12% to 15% of the supply gap. The recommended trading strategy in the near term is to be bullish on oil and reduce equity exposure, especially in the assets of net energy-importing economies such as Japan, South Korea, and Europe. Meanwhile, in an environment where interest rates, the dollar, and oil prices are all rising, overall market liquidity is tightening. Investors should maintain cash positions, shorten duration, and remain vigilant.

According to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan has taken a bullish stance on the US dollar for the first time in the past year.