bullish

Researcher Adam from Greeks.live stated that the trading of large Bitcoin call options has significantly increased, with a total of 25,766 BTC call options traded, with a nominal value of approximately $1.65 billion. Among them, nearly 10,000 sets of the 70,000/72,000 USD call bull spread expiring at the end of this month have been traded, making it the most active contract.Adam noted that with about two weeks left until expiration at the end of this month, the large-scale purchases of out-of-the-money call options that are about 10% higher than the current price reflect the market's optimistic expectations for the market trend in late this month; however, the trading strategy of using the lower-cost bull spread also indicates that the funds are primarily taking a tentative approach rather than making aggressive bets.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin market sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish and has maintained this for the second week. A model that integrates multiple market data points shows that the Bitcoin status score has rebounded from a low of -42.9 on June 26 to +34.7. Over the past week, this score has remained in positive territory for more than 80% of the time, reaching a peak of +65.3 on July 10, indicating that the overall market sentiment has shifted from seller-dominated to buyer-strong.Currently, 79.4% of the multiple sub-indicators included in the model point in the same direction, significantly higher than this month's average of 57.3%, suggesting that there are no obvious contradictions among the data, and the current bullish signal is not noise. Moving forward, if the market sentiment score further rises above +50 and the consistency remains above 80%, the bullish trend will be further confirmed; if the score continues to fall below zero and consistency drops below 40%, the current trend will be considered invalid.

Multicoin Capital Managing Partner Tushar Jain shared in detail his valuation logic and investment framework for HYPE during the "When Shift Happens" podcast. He believes that HYPE is currently severely undervalued, with a benchmark valuation of $319, and recommends a pragmatic accumulation strategy to cope with volatility.Tushar candidly stated that trying to precisely time the market is nearly impossible. The recommended framework is: the first third: buy immediately (enter the market right away); the second third: invest according to a fixed schedule (for example, in batches over 1-2 months); the third third: increase positions opportunistically when prices dip. This method can significantly reduce psychological burden while achieving a good average cost when optimistic about the long-term prospects of the asset.Tushar's valuation model is based on four relatively conservative assumptions: the trading volume of crypto derivatives will maintain a 35% annual compound growth rate over the next two years; the DeFi derivatives market share will increase to 32%; the USDC collateral balance will grow in sync with trading volume; and the "false prosperity" currently created by some projects relying on subsidies will disappear after the subsidies are withdrawn, leading to an increase in Hyperliquid's true market share. Even with these conservative assumptions, HYPE's current price still has significant upside potential, possibly exceeding $600 in some optimistic scenarios.Tushar believes that Hyperliquid is far more than just a rapidly growing perpetual contract platform; it is expected to become a core part of crypto financial infrastructure.

The contract whale "Set 10 big goals first" recently shared three trades on social media: On June 25, opened a long position on BTC at $59,837.99 and closed it at $58,592.06, ultimately losing $4.88 million; on July 6, opened a long position on BTC at $62,590.4 and closed it at $64,022.01, ultimately gaining $4.54 million; on July 13, opened a long position on BTC at $63,064.4 and closed it at $64,287.08, ultimately gaining $4.27 million.

According to Jinshi, the global fund manager survey by Bank of America shows that fund managers' bullish sentiment towards the US stock market has reached its highest level since December 2024. A net 24% of respondents believe that US stocks will outperform other regions, marking the third highest allocation weight for US stocks in the past five years.In contrast, investors have reduced their allocation to UK stocks, with confidence dropping to its lowest point since August 2020.

Strive's Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy Joe Burnett stated that there are currently three types of investment views on Bitcoin in the market: first, the bulls, who believe that Bitcoin's long-term annualized return rate is higher than the cost of financing, and therefore are willing to borrow long-term capital to increase their Bitcoin holdings; second, the neutral investors, who view Bitcoin as a "Digital Credit" asset, only needing to believe that Bitcoin will not disappear and can generally follow the growth of USD inflation over the long term to meet their return needs.For example, according to Michael Saylor, if Bitcoin grows at an average annual rate of 3.3%, it can sustainably rely on capital gains to pay current dividends; third, the bears, who can express their views by shorting Bitcoin or leveraging Bitcoin products. Burnett believes that as bulls, neutrals, and bears all have corresponding Bitcoin investment tools, more capital is expected to enter the Bitcoin market.

According to a report by Caixin on July 7, SpaceX has won preliminary support from Wall Street, with global brokerages beginning to rate this rocket and AI company owned by Musk, forming a clear consensus: buy the stock.At least six brokerages, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, have started rating the stock, giving it a rating equivalent to buy, and agreeing with SpaceX's long-term growth narrative, although questions surrounding the company's profitability, execution, and valuation remain. Among them, Morgan Stanley set a target price of $300, one of the highest target prices on Wall Street, indicating an 87% upside from Monday's closing price of $160.42.Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX's stock price to be $75 in a bear market scenario and $600 in a bull market scenario, with revenues potentially reaching $319 billion by 2030 and $33 trillion by 2040.

According to CoinDesk, Ark Invest increased its holdings in related stocks during the decline in cryptocurrency company stock prices in June, purchasing $44 million in Coinbase stock, $25 million in Circle Internet stock, and $8.2 million in Bullish stock.Circle's stock price fell 40% in June, closing at $62.63 at the end of the month, with an 18% drop on June 30 after the launch of competitor stablecoin Open USD.

Crypto KOL Ansem posted a bullish outlook on the SOL/ETH exchange rate for trading. Ansem stated, "The bottom for Solana has been reached, I was the first to say it! Now everyone is extremely pessimistic about SOL, just like when it dropped to $8 in 2023. I think buying SOL at the current price with a holding period of over 6 months is a good deal."

The Block posted on the X platform that Cathie Wood's Ark Invest purchased more shares of Coinbase, Circle, Bullish, and Robinhood during the stock market decline on Thursday.

According to Jinshi reports, data shows that forex traders, including hedge funds, are buying options in large quantities, betting that the dollar will strengthen further after the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals this week. Leveraged funds began buying dollar call options on Wednesday, and this demand continued into Thursday as investors digested the anti-inflation remarks from the new Federal Reserve Chair, Waller. Tobias Jungmann, head of forex options at Bank of America, stated that the buying of dollar call options is heavily concentrated in G-10 currencies. James Swindell, a forex options trader at Barclays, also noted a significant increase in demand for dollar call options, particularly in the euro/dollar and pound/dollar pairs.

Bitcoin has fallen below $65,000, approaching a key short-term support level ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announcement. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on June 18, which is the main catalyst for volatility this week. This FOMC meeting is also the first meeting since Kevin Warsh took office as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, so the post-meeting press conference and interest rate results are equally under scrutiny.Trader Killa stated that the FOMC may set the tone for market trends for the remainder of June. He pointed out that BTC is currently forming a bullish narrative around this event, but the outcome is usually priced in by the market before the press conference. Killa noted that if recent history is any guide, FOMC days typically bring more bearish reactions than bullish ones. Killa warned that BTC needs to maintain a bullish market structure from its current position of around $64,000; otherwise, after this turning point, it is highly likely to retest the $60,000 low.Another trader, Niels, mentioned that the FOMC meeting coincides with the nearing conclusion of the US-Iran peace agreement, and BTC may show some strength in the short term, but it could ultimately fall towards $55,000. However, analyst Cryptic Trades offered a more optimistic view, believing that BTC may continue to rebound after the FOMC. He stated that BTC has encountered resistance near a daily bullish support zone formed by two key moving averages, but after this round of correction, the next significant rise is imminent.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong posted on the X platform that he remains optimistic about Bitcoin as always and still holds a long-term bullish position. He stated that the situation is never as good or as bad as it seems.

According to Jinshi reports, as the Middle East war solidifies the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, traders' bullish sentiment towards the dollar has risen to its highest level in over a year. According to data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of June 9, hedge funds, asset management companies, and other speculators held a total of $27.8 billion in bullish bets on the dollar, the highest level since February 2025. This change in positions indicates that market bullish sentiment towards this major global reserve currency continues to accumulate.

According to Jinshi reports, Citigroup strategists have stated that the excessive bullish positions in U.S. tech stocks are putting investors at risk of a market reversal.The Citigroup team pointed out that the ongoing enthusiasm for artificial intelligence has pushed bullish market bets to the limit, particularly making the Nasdaq 100 index vulnerable to shocks. Since hitting a bottom in late March, the S&P 500 index has risen by 20%, and the Nasdaq 100 index has soared by 33%.

According to The Block, Standard Chartered Bank believes that the recent sharp decline in ETH prices does not reflect the continuous improvement of internal indicators on the Ethereum network, comparing it to Amazon's phase after the tech bubble burst in 2001. The bank maintains its ETH price targets: $4,000 by the end of 2026 and $40,000 by the end of 2030, and expects the ETH/BTC exchange rate to rebound to about 0.08 by the end of this decade.The bank stated that Ethereum dominates the stablecoin and RWA (real-world asset tokenization) sectors, expecting the market value of both stablecoins and non-stablecoin RWAs to increase to about $2 trillion by 2028, which will drive Ethereum's trading volume and TVL to new highs, pushing ETH prices upward.

According to Cointelegraph, VanEck CEO Jan Van Eck stated that he remains optimistic about Bitcoin in the long term, but warned that 2026 is historically a down year in the four-year halving cycle. He noted that institutional adoption has fundamentally remained unchanged, lacking catalysts for significant price increases.

Michael Widmer, Managing Director and Head of Metal Research at Bank of America, stated that gold prices will face pressure in the short term due to a decline in market expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts. However, the bank maintains a bullish outlook on gold and reiterates its forecast for gold prices to rise to $6,000 per ounce in the next 12 months.The current pressure on gold is related to the market's repricing of inflation risks and the path of U.S. interest rates against the backdrop of rising energy prices due to the Middle East conflict. Despite these pressures, gold is expected to continue rising, supported by ongoing purchases by central banks, a rebound in investor demand, and weakening economic growth indicators.

According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency market analyst Michaël van de Poppe stated that Bitcoin has fallen below the key support range of $75,000 to $76,000. If it cannot recover above $76,600, it will be difficult to support expectations for new highs, and the price may drop to the $60,000 range. He also pointed out that there are several CME Bitcoin futures gaps above, with the highest being above $79,000, and that market pullbacks that occur on Fridays often turn bullish again.