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Benchmark lowers Coinbase's performance expectations, the "CLARITY Act" may be an important catalyst for stock prices

Benchmark has lowered its second-quarter performance expectations for Coinbase ahead of the earnings report next week, citing weak trading activity in the cryptocurrency market, but still maintains a "Buy" rating and a target price of $270. Based on Coinbase's stock price of about $172 on Wednesday, this target price corresponds to an upside potential of approximately 57%.Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer has revised Coinbase's second-quarter revenue expectation from $1.51 billion to $1.38 billion and has lowered the full-year revenue expectation for 2026 from $6.33 billion to $6 billion. The trading volume on centralized exchanges in the second quarter has decreased by about 28%, and the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has dropped by about 13%. The firm expects Coinbase's trading revenue to decline by more than 5%.However, the market showed initial signs of stabilization in June, with spot trading volume exceeding $1 trillion for the first time since March, which may somewhat alleviate the weak performance in the second quarter.Benchmark believes that if the CLARITY Act is ultimately passed, it could become a more significant catalyst for the stock price than quarterly performance, with Coinbase potentially being one of the main beneficiaries of the act. Trump has previously agreed to the relevant ethical provisions, removing a key obstacle to the advancement of the bill.

Benchmark: The SEC's market structure reform may become the most critical variable for cryptocurrency regulation this year, benefiting tokenized stocks and AMM trading

According to The Block, investment bank Benchmark pointed out in its latest research report that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed to repeal Rule 611 and Rule 610(e) of Regulation NMS, which could become the "most decisive regulatory change" affecting the market structure of cryptocurrencies and tokenized assets in 2026.The proposal was announced on June 11 and aims to eliminate trading protection and quote constraint rules that have been in place for nearly 20 years in the U.S. stock market. The SEC stated that this move is intended to reduce trading costs and provide greater space for market competition and technological innovation.Benchmark's analysis believes that the current Rule 611 (order protection rule) requires trades to adhere to the National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO), while Rule 610(e) restricts "locked/crossed quotes." These mechanisms are effective in traditional matching systems but create structural constraints for automated market maker (AMM) models in decentralized finance (DeFi).The report pointed out that if the relevant rules are repealed, it will significantly lower the compliance barriers for tokenized stocks and on-chain trading systems, making AMM-based trading models easier to access the U.S. capital market system.In terms of potential beneficiaries, Benchmark specifically mentioned Securitize, believing that it will benefit most directly as a provider of tokenized securities infrastructure, while Coinbase and Galaxy Digital will also benefit from the expansion of trading, market-making, and custody infrastructure. However, the report also emphasized that the rule adjustments do not address all core issues, such as the exchange registration system, custody and clearing framework, and the legal positioning of DeFi-native trading still needs further clarification.The industry generally expects that the subsequent "innovation exemption mechanism" will become a key supporting policy. The SEC has currently opened a 60-day public comment period on the proposal, and the market anticipates that the final vote may take place in early 2027.
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