analysis

According to independent analyst Markus Thielen, Strategy recently made a small-scale sale of Bitcoin after the performance conference call in May, which the market interpreted as testing market reactions and the flexibility of capital allocation strategies.The analyst pointed out that although Strategy remains highly optimistic about Bitcoin, the success and expansion of the STRC preferred stock financing tool may take precedence in the overall financial arrangements. This move breaks the company's market image of "buying only, not selling" that has lasted for nearly six years. Considering Strategy's strong market influence on Bitcoin demand, this shift is quietly rewriting market expectations.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin fell to a nearly two-month low on Tuesday, as the divergence between cryptocurrencies and traditional stock markets continued to deepen. Bitcoin briefly dropped to $70,023 on Coinbase, the lowest level since April 7, with a daily decline of over 4% and a weekly decline of 8%, down 44% from the October peak of $126,000.Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index set a new historical high of over 7,600 points on Monday, and the Nasdaq index peaked above 27,000 points. Andri Fauzan Adziima, head of research at Bitrue, stated that Bitcoin is currently the only major asset in a downtrend, and this divergence is worth noting, indicating that Bitcoin resembles a high-beta risk asset linked to macro sentiment rather than an independent hedging tool.Santiment noted that the gap between traditional stocks and cryptocurrencies has become hard to ignore, leading investors to increasingly prefer stocks over Bitcoin and altcoins, with capital often rotating from crypto to the stock market. However, Santiment pointed out that this pattern will not last forever; when mainstream influencers begin discussing the dominance of stocks, it usually indicates that market sentiment is overly biased towards stocks, and market trends often move contrary to the expectations of most traders.

SpaceX disclosed in its latest S-1 filing that it holds approximately 18,712 bitcoins, with a current market value of about $1.4 billion, significantly higher than previous market expectations, with a cost of about $661 million. This bitcoin holding has become an important component of SpaceX's balance sheet, accounting for about 1.8% of total assets, making it one of the major corporate bitcoin holders, second only to a few institutions.The more critical issue lies in the financial volatility risk brought about by accounting treatment. Analysts say that measuring bitcoin at fair value will cause its price fluctuations to be directly reflected in the financial reports each quarter, potentially leading to significant profit volatility unrelated to core business (rocket launches, satellite business), creating significant "accounting noise." Market participants believe that this mechanism may make it more difficult for investors to assess SpaceX's true operational performance, with the bitcoin holding potentially evolving from a "strategic reserve asset" to a key variable affecting the stability of financial reports.

According to Cointelegraph, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of funds for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $2.84 billion, setting the longest consecutive decline record since the product's launch in 2024, and surpassing the consecutive outflow record from February 8, 2025. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT has become a major source of outflows.Analysis indicates that this round of capital outflow reflects a significant cooling of institutional demand for Bitcoin ETF exposure, while the market shows a trend of differentiation: ETFs related to Hyperliquid and some XRP spot ETFs still recorded inflows, while Ethereum spot ETFs have faced outflows for 13 consecutive days, with a total outflow of approximately $694 million, indicating that capital in crypto asset ETFs is being reallocated.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has continued to be under pressure after failing to break through $83,000, dropping to its lowest level since early April, currently reported at $73,526, with a 24-hour increase of only 0.07%. This pullback extends the downward trend of the past three weeks and forms a series of lower lows since October of last year, seen as a potential bear market signal.Ethereum has also weakened, briefly dropping to $1,965 before slightly rebounding above $2,000. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks continue to outperform the crypto market, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both rising 0.15%, approaching historical highs.

According to Jinshi News, T. Rowe Price Chief U.S. Economist Blerina Uruci stated that the market may still be underestimating the likelihood of the Federal Reserve further tightening its policies.She pointed out that since early May, the duration of the Iran conflict has exceeded expectations, oil prices have risen, and U.S. economic growth has remained resilient. Uruci believes that the probability of the federal funds rate remaining unchanged over the next 12 months is 45%, the probability of a rate hike by the end of the year or early 2027 is 35%, and the probability of a rate cut is 20%.

According to information from a third-party data platform, Bitcoin's Ahr999 has once again fallen below 0.45 after a month, reporting at 0.4322. As a result, this indicator has returned to the "bottom-buying range." This indicator was created by ahr999 and aims to assist Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging users in making investment decisions based on timing strategies. The indicator implies the yield of short-term Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging and the deviation of Bitcoin's price from its expected valuation.Historically, the Ahr999 index for Bitcoin has been below the bottom line (0.45) for 572 days. The dollar-cost averaging range is 0.45-1.2, representing a relatively reasonable range for Bitcoin prices, suitable for adhering to a regular investment strategy.

The crypto analysis platform Swissblock stated on platform X that Bitcoin has chosen to revert to a risk-averse mode. This is the defensive shift it had previously warned about. As the risk index accelerates into high-risk territory, the dominance of USDT has risen again, indicating that funds are rotating back to a protective mode. The observed sequence is: risk expansion, Bitcoin losing structural strength, and a rebound in USDT dominance. In this environment, the market prioritizes survival over upside potential.

Despite reports that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have reached a 60-day ceasefire and a draft memorandum for discussions on the nuclear program, the cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, with Bitcoin falling below $73,000, down about 2.7% in 24 hours. The U.S. stock and bond markets were boosted, with the Nasdaq rising 0.6%, while WTI crude oil prices dropped below $90 per barrel.On a macro level, the first inflation report under the new Federal Reserve Chair Warsh shows that the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose to 3.8% year-on-year in April, the highest level in nearly three years, up from 2.8% in February. Olu Sonola, the U.S. economy director at Fitch Ratings, stated that inflationary pressures may persist in the coming months, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to ignore supply shocks that drive potential inflation.Market analysis indicates that in the short term, macroeconomic favorable factors have significantly boosted the stock market and oil prices, but the cryptocurrency market lacks similar direct stimuli, and Bitcoin and other digital assets still face selling pressure.

According to analyst Yu Jin, after the launch of the spot ETF, the price trends of BTC and ETH are basically consistent with the fund flows of the ETF: inflows correspond to price increases, and outflows correspond to price decreases.The data provided states that from October last year to now, the BTC ETF size has decreased from $169.5 billion to $96.4 billion, a reduction of 43%. During the same period, the price of BTC fell from $125,000 to $73,000, a decline of 41%; the ETH ETF size decreased from $32 billion to $11.6 billion, a reduction of 63%, while the price of ETH dropped from $4,800 to $2,000, a decline of 59%. Recently, the ETF has continued to experience net outflows, corresponding to a price decline that has lasted for about half a month.

The cryptocurrency market research organization Santiment stated that ETH has fallen below $2000 for the first time since March 29. Typically, after a significant price drop, the market exhibits two typical sentiments: one is retail investors falling into FUD due to weak performance, and the other is FOMO sentiment viewing the drop as a "discount buying opportunity." Santiment pointed out that the market is currently experiencing the latter. As ETH breaks below a key psychological support level, a large number of retail investors are starting to "buy the dip."They believe this usually indicates that the price of ETH may still have further room to decline, as retail sentiment is currently too optimistic, and historically, the general market tends to make incorrect judgments. Santiment stated that a truly better buying opportunity usually occurs after market FOMO cools down and sentiment shifts to panic.

The cryptocurrency market research firm Santiment stated that ETH has fallen below $2000 for the first time since March 29. Typically, after a significant price drop, the market exhibits two typical sentiments: one is retail investors falling into FUD due to weak performance, and the other is the FOMO sentiment that views the drop as a "discount buying opportunity."Santiment pointed out that the latter is currently emerging in the market. As ETH breaks below a key psychological support level, a large number of retail investors are starting to "buy the dip." It believes that this usually indicates that the price of ETH may still have further room to decline, as retail sentiment is currently too optimistic, and historically, the general market tends to make incorrect judgments. Santiment stated that the truly better buying opportunities usually arise after market FOMO cools down and sentiment shifts to panic.

Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the inflow of BTC to trading platforms and the outflow of stablecoins from trading platforms simultaneously release a "risk aversion" signal, indicating that selling pressure in the market is increasing. Data shows that the net inflow of BTC to trading platforms over the past 30 days has shifted from an extreme net outflow of 300,000 BTC at the end of March to an inflow of 103,000 BTC, meaning more BTC is being reintroduced to trading platforms in preparation for sale. During the same period, the price of BTC dropped from $80,000 to $73,700.Meanwhile, stablecoins are flowing out of centralized trading platforms at a record pace. The average net flow of stablecoins over the past 30 days has shifted from an inflow of $164 million per day at the end of April to an outflow of $153 million per day. This indicates that the liquidity available for purchasing BTC in the market is decreasing. Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that when BTC flows into exchanges while stablecoins simultaneously flow out of trading platforms, it creates an unfavorable structure of "increased supply and decreased demand," which is a typical risk aversion market condition.He believes that if the net inflow of BTC continues to exceed +100,000 BTC, the market may face a deeper correction; while stable signals would include BTC turning back to a net outflow or stablecoins flowing back into trading platforms.

ETH has fallen below $2000 for the first time since March this year. Over the past 7 days, ETH has cumulatively dropped nearly 8%, with a decline of over 5% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, ETH futures open interest (OI) has risen for the third consecutive day, reaching a historic high of 16.39 million ETH, with a nominal value of approximately $3.25 billion. Analysts believe that the continuous rise in OI against the backdrop of falling spot prices indicates that the market is experiencing more aggressive leveraged short-selling behavior.Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated that more and more investors are beginning to abandon ETH, "ETH does not generate cash flow, and in the context of rising U.S. Treasury yields, the attractiveness of staking yields is declining." Additionally, U.S. spot ETH ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of $401 million this month, completely reversing the net inflow of $354 million in April. Market sentiment has also continued to deteriorate due to the departure of core members from the Ethereum Foundation.David Hoffman, co-founder of Bankless, previously stated that he has sold his ETH holdings, believing that the narrative of "ETH as currency" has been fully priced in. The Web3 research institution House of Chimera indicated that the market is questioning the advantages of the Ethereum ecosystem in DeFi, RWA, and tokenization, and whether it can truly reflect back to the ETH token itself.

The cryptocurrency market saw a significant decline on Thursday morning, with Bitcoin dropping below $73,000. This round of decline was accompanied by the largest single-day net outflow from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF since late January. Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, stated that this sharp drop reflects a risk-averse sentiment as profit-taking occurs after recent highs, and is also influenced by rising U.S. Treasury yields and macro caution stemming from geopolitical news.Analysts added that the market decline is primarily due to funds rotating into traditional financial stocks, and once key price levels are breached, a large amount of derivatives liquidation further depressed prices. Data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a total net outflow of $733.4 million on Wednesday, marking the largest single-day outflow since January 29. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw a net outflow of $527.8 million, setting a record for the largest single-day outflow since the fund's inception. Additionally, other ETFs like Grayscale's GBTC also experienced negative outflows. Only Morgan Stanley's MSBT recorded a net inflow of $4.3 million.Analysts believe that the outflow of funds is due to basis trade liquidations and institutional de-risking operations, while IBIT's record outflow was influenced by large trades the previous day. Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Research, pointed out that Bitcoin has exhibited a "unique trading pattern" since mid-May, continuing to decline over the past two weeks and underperforming risk assets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, primarily driven by outflows from the spot Bitcoin ETF.Analysts are closely monitoring ETF fund flow trends and Bitcoin's support level around $70,000, warning that ongoing fund outflows may indicate that institutions are further adjusting their cryptocurrency asset allocations. On a macro level, Asian stock markets opened lower on Thursday, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and Japan's Nikkei 225 both declining, due to renewed strikes by the U.S. against Iran amid a fragile ceasefire agreement.

An unknown trader sold approximately $1.3 billion worth of BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF IBIT in the dark pool market on Tuesday, attracting market attention. Data shows that the trader sold 29,200,000 shares of IBIT around 14:30 UTC at a price of $43.16. As a result, the price of Bitcoin dropped from $77,875 to $76,720 within 10 minutes, a decline of about 1.5%, and then further fell to around $75,600.Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, stated that this was the largest IBIT dark pool trade he had ever seen. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that this trade was more than 22 times larger than the second-largest IBIT sell order of the day. Additionally, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows for eight consecutive trading days. On Tuesday alone, the net outflow was approximately $333.6 million, with IBIT accounting for about $192.4 million. Since May 14, the cumulative net outflow from Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $2 billion. Reports indicate that Jane Street reduced its Bitcoin ETF holdings by about 70% in the first quarter of this year, while Goldman Sachs also cut its related positions by about 10%.

According to The Information, AI company Anthropic's current annualized revenue is approaching $45 billion, while OpenAI's latest annualized revenue is estimated to be around $33 billion, indicating that Anthropic's revenue scale may have surpassed OpenAI by at least 35%.This situation has seen a significant reversal compared to the end of 2025. At that time, Anthropic's annualized revenue was about $9 billion, less than half of OpenAI's; however, since then, Anthropic's revenue has grown by about 5 times, while OpenAI's has grown by about 50%.The report also pointed out that Anthropic is currently relying mainly on enterprise-level AI, code generation, and white-collar work scenarios for rapid growth and may have achieved quarterly operational profitability; in contrast, OpenAI still faces high computing power and consumer business cost pressures.

Analyst Murphy stated that by observing the "short-term capital on-chain activity weight" (i.e., the proportion of the dollar value represented by short-term chip turnover) as an on-chain indicator, we can assess the current BTC market status. This indicator reflects the latest short-term trading behaviors such as speculation, arbitrage, profit-taking, or panic selling. Currently, this weight has dropped to historically low levels, appearing only in the bottom regions of bear markets over the past 15 years, indicating a significant cooling of short-term turnover, with economic value shifting towards long-term chip accumulation. The market is characterized by low volatility, consolidation, or clear bottom features.The analyst judges that based on this, the current market may be in one of three stages: bear market bottom; secondary bottom, which may still have one last drop; or consolidation before the bull market starts. However, under rational judgment, the pre-bull consolidation can be temporarily ruled out. It is currently not recommended to fully bet on a single scenario; a diversified position strategy is advised to cope with different outcomes, as the relative position of the long-term trend has indicated that Bitcoin is near the bottom.