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ARK Invest released the Q2 2026 Bitcoin report stating that Bitcoin fell by about 14% in the second quarter, dropping below the realized price for short-term holders, the 200-day moving average, and the on-chain average, with the technical outlook remaining bearish. However, the proportion of loss supply rose to about 54%, and the supply of long-term holders increased to a historical high of about 14.85 million BTC, which ARK views as a potential signal of seller exhaustion.The report also pointed out that Bitcoin has not yet fallen back to the on-chain cost range of about $49,000 to $53,000, and the downside risk has not been fully released; the net outflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF in Q2 was about 71,000 BTC, and the preferred stock of Strategy, STRC, fell to a minimum of $74.57.

According to Cointelegraph, renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt posted that the daily chart of Nasdaq 100 mini futures (NQ) may form a "diamond" pattern, or may have already formed a market top.In addition, Peter Brandt recently predicted in an interview that Bitcoin might first rebound by $10,000, then drop to a high of $40,000, and form a bottom in early October 2026.Brandt issued a warning based on Bitcoin's historical cycle patterns, pointing out that Bitcoin may experience a false breakout, with the current Bitcoin price fluctuating around $60,000, facing short-term downside risks. Brandt also emphasized his long-term optimism for Bitcoin, expecting the coin price to reach between $300,000 and $500,000 by 2029.

Glassnode data shows that buyers who have held Bitcoin for 1-2 years have realized losses, which may indicate the bottom of the bear market in 2026, with $69,000 becoming a key price battleground.

David Hoffman, co-founder of Bankless, stated that Bitcoin's current trend faces two possible paths: sideways consolidation or a final round of panic selling.He believes that Bitcoin is more likely to enter a sideways consolidation phase, with the bottom having basically appeared.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, a report from NYDIG shows that Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% this year, performing the worst among various assets, lagging behind U.S. Treasury bonds, silver, and the Swiss franc. The report points out that the current slump is due to supply mechanisms rather than risk sentiment, and the timing and structure of the pullback in 2025-2026 are increasingly resembling the adjustment years of 2014, 2018, and 2022. If the 2022 model is fully replicated, the cycle low could be around $38,000-$39,000.However, Bitcoin experienced its lowest volatility year on record in 2025, and some analysts believe this year's pullback may be shallower than in previous bear markets. In Q2 2026, the rolling correlation between Bitcoin and gold increased, with both assets facing sell-offs, and the "devaluation trade" losing momentum. Bitwise stated last week that despite Bitcoin being in the deepest and longest slump since the last bear market, the fundamentals have laid the groundwork for a rapid recovery. NYDIG referred to the CLARITY Act as "the most important forward-looking catalyst for the digital asset industry."

Wintermute released a market analysis stating that under multiple geopolitical shocks such as the U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin has still maintained the critical support level of $62,000, showing strong resilience in the market.Last week, as U.S.-Iran negotiations were paused due to related issues, Iran attacked commercial vessels, and the U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes. Tehran announced the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil seeing a weekly increase of 6.3%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rising to 4.57%. The market has readjusted the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to about 61%, and the U.S. CPI data to be released this week will be a key indicator affecting expectations for the July FOMC meeting.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has maintained a stable trend despite facing consecutive geopolitical risk events, holding the $62,000 area after a minimum pullback and gradually rising to around $64,000. Ethereum performed even stronger, with prices nearing $1,805.Meanwhile, the eight-week trend of ETF fund outflows has finally ended, with Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products recording a total inflow of about $282 million last week. Although the weekly inflow is still insufficient to confirm a trend reversal, combined with the recent continuous accumulation by whales and the market's weakened reaction to negative news, marginal selling pressure is easing, and the market may be forming a phase bottom.Additionally, the market's reaction to Strategy selling Bitcoin has been muted, contrasting sharply with two months ago when the sale of just 32 BTC triggered a sell-off, indicating that investor concerns about potential selling pressure have significantly decreased.Currently, Bitcoin has shown a "not falling on bad news" bottoming characteristic, but the market still needs to wait for further confirmation. Key factors going forward include the performance of U.S. CPI, whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, and the developments in the Strait of Hormuz situation. If inflation data cools, fund flows continue to improve, and progress is made on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the key resistance level of $67,250; conversely, if oil prices continue to rise and macro pressures intensify, the $60,000 support may face another test.

Coinbase Institutional stated that U.S. non-farm employment was far below expectations, but the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has brought inflation risks back into focus for the market. The market is shifting towards pricing "higher interest rates for a longer duration," financial conditions are tightening further, long-term risk assets are under pressure, and the probability of another interest rate hike within the year is also increasing.Amid multiple negative factors, BTC only fell by about 2%, and this relatively resilient performance may indicate that the market is undergoing a bottoming process.

According to CoinDesk, Jurien Timmer, the Global Macro Director at Fidelity, stated that Bitcoin is approaching the bottom support line of its "power law model" constructed based on the complete price history of Bitcoin. This long-term support level is currently around $58,000, while the current price of Bitcoin is approximately $62,700, gradually nearing this area, or may have already entered the "accumulation zone" defined by the model.However, Jurien Timmer did not confirm that the market has bottomed out, but believes that Bitcoin may not experience a rapid rebound immediately. Instead, it is expected to fluctuate around the long-term support line for several months. Short-term capital has previously exited, and the flow of funds has rotated from Bitcoin to gold, and then from gold to the semiconductor sector. Currently, the market's pursuit of hot sectors is still mainly concentrated in the semiconductor field.

Multicoin Capital Managing Partner Tushar Jain stated that the crypto market has bottomed out and entered a turning point, with current market sentiment truly reaching a low. Recent major hacking incidents and other news have not triggered large-scale sell-offs, application adoption rates continue to rise, and prices have become disconnected from fundamentals.He maintains a long-term optimistic view on Solana, believing that SOL is the correct architecture for spot trading and tokenized securities; he is also optimistic about Hyperliquid's leading position in the derivatives space, currently holding significant positions in both. Regarding ZEC, he mentioned that Multicoin has accumulated a considerable proportion of the supply and believes it represents a return to the "crypto-punk" values of the industry, with the potential to enter the top five by market capitalization.In terms of position management, he employs a "three-part method": immediately buying one-third, dollar-cost averaging the second one-third, and keeping the final one-third as flexible funds to respond to major declines. After confirming that no hackers exploited the Zcash code vulnerability incident, the team significantly increased their positions.

Glassnode's latest weekly report points out that Bitcoin has been continuously operating below the real market average and the cost basis of short-term holders for the past five months, remaining in a deep value range. This indicates that while the market bottoming process is progressing, it has not yet been completed.On-chain data shows that long-term holders' realized losses account for 43% of the total realized value, with the recent daily average realized loss peak rising to $280 million, the highest level since December 2022, indicating that selling pressure has not significantly eased.

According to the analyst thechessONCHAIN on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is currently 0.158, with its 100-day exponential moving average at 0.215 and the 30-day exponential moving average at 0.155.On June 2, the 30-day moving average has crossed below the 100-day moving average, indicating a weakening market momentum, but both are currently still above the zero axis.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio has once again reached an extreme negative territory, slightly rebounding after falling below -20. The Sharpe ratio is used to measure the relationship between investment risk and return, with a negative value indicating higher risk relative to current returns, which aligns with Bitcoin's third consecutive quarter of decline (with the latest quarter down 16.1%).Historically, such extremely pessimistic periods often last for several weeks to months and correspond to a new bottom-building phase, followed by a price restart. The analyst stated that the data suggests we are currently approaching this phase, but it is important to note that this observation belongs to a long-term time frame.

According to CoinDesk, against the backdrop of continuous outflows of institutional funds in the United States, Bitcoin whales have accumulated over 270,000 BTC (approximately $16.7 billion) in the past two weeks, forming a clear divergence from the record outflows of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF.Analysis points out that this phase of divergence has historical cyclical characteristics: while institutional funds are withdrawing, long-term holders and whale accounts continue to accumulate, similar to the capital redistribution structure commonly seen at the bottom of previous cycles.On-chain data shows that although the spot premium remains negative, indicating that on-site buying is not strong, large wallets continue to accumulate Bitcoin, and the market is currently in a structural phase of "institutional deleveraging and long-term capital accumulation."

According to CoinDesk, Wall Street investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald has released a report stating that the cryptocurrency market is entering the final stage of the current bear market cycle. Analysts pointed out that as of June 10, Bitcoin has been 252 days since its peak in 2025, with a decline of about 51%. In the previous three market cycles, Bitcoin typically reached its bottom 384 days after peaking; if history repeats itself, this round of decline may bottom out around the end of October. The report cautions that this model is not an accurate timing tool, and macroeconomic, regulatory, and geopolitical risks still exist, but the reflexive nature of the cryptocurrency market suggests that historical cycles may self-reinforce.Cantor suggests that investors shift their focus from speculative activities to networks with the ability to accumulate lasting value, identifying Hyperliquid as a typical case of fee-driven token economics. Bitcoin remains the benchmark currency asset, Ethereum is the dominant collateral layer for on-chain finance, and Solana, Sui, XRP, and Zcash each have differentiated advantages but still need to prove sustainable value. Cantor has also included digital asset treasury companies Forward Industries and Cypherpunk Technologies in its research coverage, giving them a buy rating, with target prices of $7.9 and $0.9, respectively.

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, the current reading of the Bitcoin UTXO profit and loss ratio model has fallen into a historically low range, indicating that the market is undergoing a deeper internal cleanup.However, the analyst emphasizes that this does not mean the bottom has been confirmed— the 365-day moving average needs to decline further to prove that the market's long-term profit structure has been fully reset, rather than just a short-term oversold reaction. Although a brief rebound may occur due to a short squeeze, it should not be seen as a structural recovery signal if the profit and loss ratio fails to sustain its reconstruction.Overall, signs of internal cleanup in BTC are beginning to emerge, but historical patterns suggest that the market may still need to endure more pressure before fully emerging from this bear market.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua posted that the current Bitcoin trend represents the third wave of decline since the peak of 1011. According to volatility theory and cyclical patterns, this may be the final major drop.Yi Lihua pointed out that the main influencing factors for this round of decline include the performance of the U.S. stock market and Strategy, while closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's response to CPI data to see if it will change interest rate cut or hike expectations, which could trigger a continued pullback in the U.S. stock market. Additionally, black swan or explosive events often occur at the tail end of past bear markets, which have not yet appeared and still require ongoing observation.He believes that based on Bitcoin's peak of $126,000, a 60% drop would bring it down to about $51,000, and a 66% drop would bring it down to about $43,000. Regardless of where the final bottom lies, July and August may be the last bottoming area of this cycle and the most noteworthy time window for bottom fishing in the next three years.

According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin unspent transaction output (UTXO) data shows that the proportion of loss transactions to profit transactions in the current market has dropped to the lowest level of this bear market cycle, indicating that investors are entering a clear "surrender" phase.This indicator has previously triggered multiple times at historical cycle bottom areas. The last similar low occurred during the mid-2023 deep phase of the bear market, when the Bitcoin price briefly fell to around $26,000. Analysts believe that such phases usually correspond to extremely low market sentiment, with long-term investors gradually starting to accumulate again.Darkfost pointed out that this is the first time this signal has been triggered since the start of the current correction, indicating that the number of UTXOs sold at a loss is significantly increasing, reflecting a broader sell-off and surrender behavior that has begun. He also added that the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders' Bitcoin is gradually entering negative territory.

Crypto KOL Ansem posted a bullish outlook on the SOL/ETH exchange rate for trading. Ansem stated, "The bottom for Solana has been reached, I was the first to say it! Now everyone is extremely pessimistic about SOL, just like when it dropped to $8 in 2023. I think buying SOL at the current price with a holding period of over 6 months is a good deal."