botto

According to market news, Bitcoin (BTC) closed up 1.8%, ending a five-month decline since 2025, but faced a new round of volatility at the beginning of April, dropping to $67,630 during the Asian morning session.Although April has historically been a strong month for BTC (with an average historical increase of 12.1%), the market has continued to deviate from seasonal patterns since the end of 2025. Regarding macro and geopolitical uncertainties, Binance Research pointed out that if clear signals of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran emerge, it could boost the crypto market for further recovery.On the technical side, some analysts believe that the current macro environment closely resembles the market structure before the significant BTC rises in 2016 and 2020. However, Alphractal's CEO and CryptoQuant models both indicate that the current bottom may appear between September and November 2026, at which point there is a possibility of prices falling below $40,000.

According to CoinDesk, the gap between Bitcoin's spot price and its realized price (the average cost basis of all on-chain tokens weighted by their last transaction time) is narrowing, approaching the levels seen at the bottoms of past cycles. However, on-chain data shows that the market has not yet experienced a typical capitulation sell-off. Currently, Bitcoin's realized price is about $54,286, the spot price is about $68,774, and the premium is about 21%. The bottom signal of the 2022 bear market was when the spot price fell below the realized price, which occurred when the spot was about 15% lower than the realized price at the cycle low.The current 21% premium indicates that the average holder is still in profit. To reach the realized price, Bitcoin would need to drop about 20% to $54,000. Notably, the speed of the premium's contraction, from about 120% at the end of 2024 to 21% after 15 months, is the fastest approach to the realized price line outside of a market crash.Other on-chain signals also indicate that the market has not completed its reset: the Coinbase premium index has returned to negative values, suggesting weakened institutional demand. Analysts believe that although Bitcoin has maintained a range of $65,000 to $70,000 for five weeks, the inflow of over $1 billion into ETFs in March shows there are buyers, but the market has not yet gone through the painful process that historically marks a bottom.

Tom Lee stated in an interview with CNBC: "I believe the market has absorbed 90% to 95% of the selling pressure, and the selling process may have ended. We can now start to rebuild the bottom. We must recognize that in a war environment, the stock market often hits bottom early. We have studied every war since 1900, and the stock market tends to bottom out within the first 10% of the war process. So, if this follows the same pattern, we are currently in the early stages of that process.At this stage, any bad news can trigger people to de-risk. But you also know that this is why positions are worth paying attention to, because at some point, when people become overly neutral, even if the situation is not that bad, the market could see a V-shaped rebound."Tom Lee also added on social media that even if the "bottom" has not yet been reached, he believes the U.S. economy can withstand $100, or even $120, oil.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan stated that the Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has fallen below 1, indicating that even long-term investors are selling at a loss.Since long-term holders are the group least sensitive to short-term fluctuations, when they start realizing losses, it can be interpreted as a broader capitulation occurring in the entire market. At this point, short-term holders are likely to have already exited the market or have suffered significant losses.In other words, most participants in the market are in a state of loss. Historically, this situation often leads to a gradual exhaustion of selling pressure, forming a market bottom or an area close to a long-term low. While it may still be too early to determine that the current market is the absolute bottom, when losses become widespread, it often represents the final stage of fear sentiment and the beginning of opportunity.

According to Binance spot data, the market has experienced significant fluctuations. NOM has risen by 50.66% in 24 hours, while FET and SANTOS have increased by 11.56% and 10.78% respectively, both showing a rebound after hitting lows.At the same time, AUDIO has shown a "high and then low" state, with a 24-hour decline of 7.33%. CFX and GTC have both reached new lows today, with declines of 6.98% and 5.07%. USUAL has slightly decreased by 3.2% within 5 minutes, while SENT has slightly increased by 3.1% during the same period.

According to on-chain analyst @MorenoDV_ in a post on CryptoQuant, the long-term holders (LTH) of BTC are approaching a critical turning point in their adjusted net unrealized profit (NUPL), but the market bottom signal has not yet been triggered.Since the peak on October 6, 2025, LTH profitability has sharply compressed from 58% to 3% over 142 days, reflecting a significant deterioration in investor sentiment and holding structure. However, LTH-NUPL is currently still slightly above zero and has not entered the comprehensive liquidation range necessary for historically forming a market bottom.Analysts point out that true market bottoms in history have formed after LTH holdings have fully turned into losses. The current environment is closer to the late-cycle pressure phase rather than complete liquidation. It is recommended to focus on signals where LTH-NUPL continues to fall below zero, accompanied by long-term compression of price and volatility, as this condition has historically been highly correlated with asymmetric entry opportunities.

Crypto analyst Willy Woo stated that some traditional on-chain models indicate that the bottom for BTC is roughly between $46,000 and $54,000, while also suggesting that there may be a need to wait longer.The scale of capital stored in BTC has been flowing out since November. However, it is important to note that these models also have limitations. These models are based on historical behavior, and there have only been 4 bear markets in Bitcoin's history, all occurring against the backdrop of a long-term bull market for risk assets. If this foundation is broken, we may enter unknown territory (a deeper bear market). Finally, I personally believe that due to the potential collapse of the long-term bull market structure at the global macro level, the probability of a deeper bear market is quite high.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a whale address purchased 5,039 ETH for approximately 10 million dollars. Currently, this address holds a total of 138,234 ETH, valued at about 274 million dollars, while having an outstanding loan position of approximately 142.3 million dollars.

On-chain analyst Willy Woo pointed out that traditional on-chain models indicate that the current bottom range for Bitcoin is expected to be between $46,000 and $54,000.Data shows that Bitcoin storage funds have been continuously flowing out since last year, while the cumulative value days destroyed (CVDD) bottom model currently reads $45,500, which has the characteristic of continuously increasing in value over time.

According to market news, after Bitcoin pulled back from $76,000, the Overall Liquidity indicator and the ALT Resilient Index showed a significant resonance in the 65K--66K range. Historical data shows that such resonance often corresponds to the formation of short-term bottoms, indicating conditions for a rebound.

According to Forbes, Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro stated in a research report that the decline in Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market has roughly reached the historical average level from peak to trough in this cycle. In recent weeks, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency-related stocks have shown volatility but are trending towards stability. However, Yaro warned that trading volume may decline further, and in a low trading volume environment, Bitcoin prices are prone to significant fluctuations, making any rebound difficult to sustain.He pointed out that trading volume typically remains at a low for about three months before showing a noticeable recovery. If trading volume continues to decline, cryptocurrency companies' revenues may decrease by 2% and profits by 4% in 2026. Goldman Sachs currently rates Robinhood, Figure Technologies, and Coinbase as "buy," with the stock prices of these three companies down at least 50% from their historical highs. Yaro stated that digital asset-related targets are presenting increasingly attractive entry points.Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon revealed last month at the World Liberty Forum held at Trump's Mar-a-Lago in Florida that he holds a small amount of Bitcoin, marking a shift in his stance for 2024. This week, Bitcoin prices fell back to around $60,000, and Trade Nation senior market analyst David Morrison noted that Bitcoin previously faced resistance and retreated around $72,000. Currently, the daily MACD indicator is flattening at a neutral level, and the short-term trend direction remains unclear.

Citrini Research published a market view on platform X, stating that U.S. stocks may reach a short-term bottom on Monday.At the same time, it indicated that the S&P 500 index will not stabilize long-term before breaking below 6000 points, but there will be some intense short-term rebounds.

According to Bloomberg, after gold prices experienced the largest sell-off in years, bargain buyers have started to enter the gold market. As of Thursday's close, gold prices had fallen 19% from the closing peak in January, approaching the 20% threshold that traditionally marks the beginning of a bear market. However, by Friday, buyers re-entered the market, pushing gold prices up by about 3%.George Efstathopoulos, a fund manager at Fidelity International, stated that this pullback presents a buying opportunity once tensions in the Middle East subside. Inflation risks, fiscal pressures, and bond credit issues remain structural positives for gold. Analysts also pointed out that the Iran conflict could trigger central banks to sell gold, or at least slow down their purchasing pace. Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities, believes that given that central banks have been cornerstone buyers in this bull market, large-scale direct selling would have a more immediate impact on prices and a more destructive effect on market sentiment. However, for now, the broader trend may be a gradual slowing of central bank gold purchases rather than a complete shift to selling.

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua stated: "In the short term, the war will not end, and the market is waiting for further clarity on the war. However, there will definitely be a great bottom-fishing opportunity this year, so prepare as much capital as possible before that. Aside from the crypto industry, I have been working hard to learn AI recently and have been deeply shocked, especially by the efficiency of commanding AI to work. This is not just a simple improvement in efficiency; it is a direct leap from the era of horse-drawn carriages to the era of airplanes.I require all companies I invest in to immediately learn to use A and embrace AI. In the future, companies that do not use AI will be eliminated. Today, because of AI, all companies and individuals are basically starting from the same starting line. Another great wave is coming, and my requirement for myself this year is to spend half of my time working in collaboration with AI."

According to Theblock, K33 research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that in recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin has mainly fluctuated between $60,000 and $75,000, indicating that the trading volume of exchange-traded products and the behavior of long-term holders are stabilizing. He described this price trend as "typically associated with market bottoms" and suggested that the price range just above $70,000 may be attractive to medium- to long-term investors.According to Lunde, since late February, the capital flow of Bitcoin ETFs has slightly turned positive, indicating that the sell-off wave since the historical high in October may be coming to an end. He stated that the previous capital outflow was due to profit-taking when the Bitcoin price fell below the investors' cost price, creating a supply-demand feedback loop. However, as prices fell, the motivation to sell weakened, and demand began to stabilize.

Research and brokerage firm Bernstein stated that Bitcoin has likely bottomed out and is expected to continue rising, while maintaining its price target of $150,000 by 2026.Despite the stock price dropping 50% from its peak, Strategy (stock code: MSTR) has shown strong resilience, currently holding about 3.6% of the total Bitcoin supply (approximately $53.5 billion). Bernstein believes that MSTR is a high beta investment vehicle for Bitcoin, and its balance sheet is relatively robust. Strategy has not reduced its exposure; instead, it has continued to increase its Bitcoin holdings at recent lows, raising $7.3 billion through financing in 2026 to expand its position.

Macquarie's global energy strategist Vikas Dwivedi and his team stated in a report that even if tensions may ease (referring specifically to Trump's statement on Monday), oil prices are expected to bottom out at $85 to $90 per barrel and will soon naturally rebound to the $110 range until the Strait of Hormuz fully resumes navigation.If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Brent crude prices could still rise to $150 per barrel by the end of April, while refined oil prices are expected to be 200% higher than pre-war levels.The total amount of oil transported through the strait is expected to be 1.5 million barrels per day, far below the normal level of 15 million barrels per day, indicating a daily supply gap of 13.5 million barrels.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a mysterious whale has once again purchased 3,618 ETH for 7.7 million USDT.The mysterious whale currently holds 107,007 ETH, worth 229.12 million dollars, and also holds 23 million USDT, likely indicating that more purchases are forthcoming.

According to Cointelegraph analysis, the Bitcoin price hovering around $70,000 may suggest that the market bottom has not yet arrived.Bitcoin fell below $69,000 on Thursday, retreating back into a six-week trading range. This pullback coincided with an increase in sell-offs in the Bitcoin futures market and stagnation in demand from U.S. investors. The imbalance between spot and perpetual contracts is evident, with the cumulative trading volume difference decreasing by $40.64 million, and perpetual contracts down by $506.75 million, indicating stronger selling pressure from leveraged traders. However, the funding rate has turned positive at 0.05%, suggesting that bulls are in control, and the order book shows buying support near $70,000.From a short-term chart perspective, Bitcoin is forming a technical pattern similar to that from March 6 to 8, when the price rebounded after a pullback. The relative strength index is forming a bullish divergence, and liquidation data also supports this structure. If it quickly recovers to $70,000, it may open up a move towards $76,000, with a key turning point at $72,000. If it falls below $68,300, it could test $65,000 to $62,000.

According to Binance spot data, several dynamics have emerged in the market. LA has increased by 9.69% in the last 24 hours and reached a new high for today.At the same time, W, TRUMP, and S have also shown signs of recovery from the bottom, with increases of 5.66%, 5.16%, and 7.82%, respectively.On the other hand, FORM and FLOW have reached new lows for today, with decreases of 5.87% and 7.97%, respectively.Among other tokens, C has slightly increased by 3.72% in the last 24 hours, while TAO has reached a new high for today, with an increase of 8.87%.