geopolitics

The latest report from the Bitcoin Policy Institute shows that due to the Iran conflict, the annual blockchain transaction volume in the Middle East and North Africa is expected to reach $350 billion in 2025-2026, more than three times the approximately $100 billion in 2022. The report points out that regional conflicts typically accelerate capital outflows, but the Iran conflict presents a different dynamic: an increasing amount of capital is shifting towards digital assets, highlighting the growing role of cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoin) as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty.The report states that after the outbreak of the conflict, Bitcoin initially fell in sync with other risk assets, but then investors shifted from higher-risk cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin, raising its market capitalization share to a one-month high of 64.8%. In countries like Egypt, Turkey, Lebanon, and Iran, due to currency devaluation, more people are increasingly using Bitcoin and dollar-pegged stablecoins to preserve value. Meanwhile, Gulf countries like the UAE and Bahrain are attracting crypto firms and institutional investors by establishing regulatory frameworks.Chainalysis data also shows that after the US-Israel airstrikes from February 28 to March 2, approximately $10.3 million left Iranian crypto exchanges. The report believes that in countries suffering from sanctions, conflict, or currency instability, cryptocurrencies have become tools for preserving and transferring value outside the traditional financial system, while regulated Gulf markets continue to attract institutional capital.

Bitcoin price fell nearly 1% to around $79,700, as escalating conflicts between the United States and Iran pushed oil prices higher. The U.S. Central Command confirmed on Saturday that it struck three Iranian oil tankers located near Halk Island, Jask, and the Gulf of Oman. Admiral Brad Cooper stated that if Iran attacks U.S. vessels, the U.S. will impose a higher economic cost.The U.S. Central Command updated maritime blockade data, stating that since resuming operations on July 14, it has redirected 92 merchant ships, disabled 3, and boarded 2 for inspection. Oil prices rose by 1% in both the U.S. and European markets, with WTI at $92.72, marking a cumulative increase of over 6% in the past seven days. The rise in oil prices could exacerbate global inflation, making it more difficult for central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to cut interest rates.Additionally, the U.S. employment data for August released last Friday was stronger than expected, reinforcing expectations for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, Trump immediately posted on Truth Social calling for a rate cut, stating that a strong nation means lower interest rates. This uncertainty may dampen risk appetite for Bitcoin and the broader market. Furthermore, late Sunday night, the Liquid Network, used by exchanges as a settlement layer, suffered a $320 million attack.

According to Jinshi reports, the CEO of Saudi Aramco warned that geopolitical crises are intensifying, and unprecedented supply shocks are occurring.

Wintermute released a market analysis stating that under multiple geopolitical shocks such as the U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin has still maintained the critical support level of $62,000, showing strong resilience in the market.Last week, as U.S.-Iran negotiations were paused due to related issues, Iran attacked commercial vessels, and the U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes. Tehran announced the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil seeing a weekly increase of 6.3%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rising to 4.57%. The market has readjusted the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to about 61%, and the U.S. CPI data to be released this week will be a key indicator affecting expectations for the July FOMC meeting.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has maintained a stable trend despite facing consecutive geopolitical risk events, holding the $62,000 area after a minimum pullback and gradually rising to around $64,000. Ethereum performed even stronger, with prices nearing $1,805.Meanwhile, the eight-week trend of ETF fund outflows has finally ended, with Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products recording a total inflow of about $282 million last week. Although the weekly inflow is still insufficient to confirm a trend reversal, combined with the recent continuous accumulation by whales and the market's weakened reaction to negative news, marginal selling pressure is easing, and the market may be forming a phase bottom.Additionally, the market's reaction to Strategy selling Bitcoin has been muted, contrasting sharply with two months ago when the sale of just 32 BTC triggered a sell-off, indicating that investor concerns about potential selling pressure have significantly decreased.Currently, Bitcoin has shown a "not falling on bad news" bottoming characteristic, but the market still needs to wait for further confirmation. Key factors going forward include the performance of U.S. CPI, whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, and the developments in the Strait of Hormuz situation. If inflation data cools, fund flows continue to improve, and progress is made on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the key resistance level of $67,250; conversely, if oil prices continue to rise and macro pressures intensify, the $60,000 support may face another test.

According to Jinshi reports, preliminary information indicates that Iran has launched an attack on the U.S. missile launch base in Kuwait.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast titled "Agreement Reached with Imeda, SpaceX Listing: The Dual Impact on Cryptocurrency and Global Finance" today at 20:00 (UTC+8). At that time, crypto KOLs such as OxPink, Zane, 0x31ad.sun, and Crypto.0824 will be invited to discuss the impact of the easing of relations between Iran and the United States on global capital flows, commodities, and risk assets, as well as the potential technology asset revaluation and capital siphoning effect triggered by the SpaceX listing. They will analyze the new opportunities and challenges faced by the cryptocurrency market under the intertwining of geopolitical and technological capital variables.

According to Bloomberg, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is considering whether to block the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) from launching an application for around-the-clock crude oil contracts. A senior CFTC official stated that continuous trading may not be suitable for crude oil, as it could exacerbate already extreme volatility during periods of geopolitical tension. CME announced last Thursday plans to launch crude oil and gold futures contracts that would be available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, which surprised the CFTC. The new crude oil contract will be one-tenth the size of the existing micro WTI futures contract and is scheduled to go live on August 30, pending regulatory review. A week ago, the CEO of CME expressed "serious concerns" to the CFTC about clearing the way for cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The CFTC stated it would evaluate perpetual contract applications on a case-by-case basis, noting that certain assets may not be suitable for this product.

On Wednesday, both WTI and Brent crude oil fell more than 2%, as U.S. President Trump once again claimed that the war with Iran would soon come to an end. However, due to ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East, investors remain cautious about the outcome of negotiations. Emril Jamil, a senior oil research analyst at the London Stock Exchange Group, stated that as the market assesses the geopolitical situation, benchmark oil prices have softened due to the possibility of an agreement.However, even if an agreement is reached, there may still be some upward potential for oil prices, as supply is unlikely to return to pre-war levels immediately. Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, noted that as the U.S. position changes daily, investors are closely watching whether the U.S. and Iran can truly find common ground and reach a peace agreement. Given the possibility that the U.S. may strike Iran again, and that even with a peace agreement, crude oil supply will not quickly return to pre-war levels, oil prices may remain elevated.

After 21 hours of negotiations, U.S. Vice President Vance stated that no agreement was reached, as Iran refused to commit to abandoning its nuclear weapons program. Trump had previously warned that if negotiations failed, he would implement "total destruction" against Iran. The Iranian conflict has shaken the cryptocurrency market for several weeks, compounded by tariff issues, causing Bitcoin to briefly drop below $70,000 earlier this month.Before the negotiations began, crypto analysts indicated that if an agreement were reached, Bitcoin could rise to $80,000; if negotiations broke down, it might fall back to $65,000. Bulls noted that on-chain wallet data showed that the largest Bitcoin whales continued to buy during periods of intense geopolitical turmoil rather than selling. Their logic is that if the conflict escalates further and disrupts oil supply in the Persian Gulf, leading to rising oil prices, inflation, and the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts, scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold tend to perform well in such contexts.On the bearish side, gold trader and long-term Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff stated that as the conflict escalates, investors will flee from Bitcoin to gold. Peter Schiff predicted that Bitcoin would "collapse," claiming that gold is the only true safe-haven asset in wartime, and further suggested that insiders within the administration might be profiting from the volatility surrounding the conflict. If Trump follows through on his threat of "total destruction," both the stock market and the crypto market will almost certainly face simultaneous sell-offs.Regarding further developments, Vance maintained a firm stance at the press conference but did not rule out the possibility of continued negotiations. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament demanded a ceasefire in Lebanon and the unfreezing of assets before participating in formal negotiations. For Bitcoin traders, the next 72 hours hinge on two questions: Can the ceasefire agreement hold, and will Trump escalate the conflict? Currently, there are still whales buying at the current price level, indicating that at least some large investors are betting on a stabilization of the situation.

Bybit announced that it will co-host an online live broadcast today on the Bybit official website and X platform with DefiLlama Research (DL Research), reviewing the "2025 World Cryptocurrency Application Index Report" previously released by both parties.It is reported that this live broadcast will be participated by Bybit's Chief Market Analyst Han Tan and the DL Research research team members Seb and Stan. The core topics will focus on the recent dramatic changes in the global situation and the trends in the cryptocurrency market, with a particular emphasis on the performance and resilience of cryptocurrencies in geopolitical conflicts, the current development status of the stablecoin ecosystem, new trends in RWA and tokenization applications, as well as the specific performance of the Middle Eastern market, represented by the UAE, under the current geopolitical "stress test."

QCP released the latest market report indicating that against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions, the cryptocurrency market has shown relative strength, with Bitcoin and Ethereum breaking through $74,000 and $2,270 respectively, while stocks and gold assets remain under pressure during the same period. The report believes that this trend is reinforcing the narrative of "digital safe-haven assets" and "geopolitical hedging tools."QCP stated that tensions related to Iran may drive an increase in on-chain activity and cross-border liquidity demand. Data shows that last week, the supply of USDC rose to a historical high of approximately $81.1 billion, with overall stablecoin supply increasing simultaneously, indicating new inflows into the cryptocurrency market amid global uncertainty.Institutional demand has also shown signs of recovery. Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive trading days, with BlackRock's ETF recording inflows for the third consecutive week, totaling approximately $1.75 billion. Meanwhile, Strategy continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings.In the options market, spot prices are approaching the important end-of-month strike price BTC-27MAR26-75K-C (approximately 8,000 contracts). The report notes that if the price effectively breaks through $75,000, it may trigger a rally driven by the Gamma effect, while $74,500 remains a key short-term resistance level, with a dense area of short liquidations above.

According to the latest "February 2026 Private Wealth Management Monthly Report" released by Gate, the cryptocurrency market faced overall pressure in February due to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, with BTC experiencing a monthly decline of approximately 15.5%, and ETH also retracing. The market's fear and greed index dropped into the "extreme fear" zone, indicating a significant increase in risk-averse sentiment.Against this backdrop, Gate's private wealth management products maintained overall steady performance, but short-term returns showed some differentiation. Among them, Star Core Smart Investment (USDT) had the highest annual return rate, reaching 9.5%; Starry Hedge (USDT) and Star Orbit Arbitrage (USDT) had cumulative return rates of 18.0% and 17.2%, respectively. During the statistical period, Starry Hedge (USDT) achieved positive returns in all 20 cycles, with a total win rate of 100%; Gravitational Hedge (USDT) also performed outstandingly, with a total win rate of 95%.The report pointed out that recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising shipping risks have heightened market concerns about disruptions in crude oil supply, driving a rebound in WTI oil prices. Looking ahead, the narratives related to AI Agents and TradFi may continue to attract market attention in the next 1-2 months and become important catalysts for capital rotation.

Matrixport's analysis states that since early February, Bitcoin has maintained a sideways consolidation. Despite escalating geopolitical tensions, weakening U.S. employment data, and a general pullback in global stock markets (with the South Korean stock market experiencing a significant drop at one point), Bitcoin has still demonstrated strong resilience.Even with a sharp rise in oil prices over the weekend, Bitcoin only retraced to the support level around $66,000, and this level continues to provide support. The institution also mentioned in its previous daily report that the possibility of Bitcoin strengthening again and returning to the $70,000 to $80,000 range is increasing. As the market gradually digests the impact of the Iran conflict, Bitcoin is expected to break free from the disturbances of geopolitical factors and repair towards a higher trading range.

Due to the impact of rising international tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, international crude oil prices have surged significantly, and the overall commodity sector has shown a marked upward trend. Meanwhile, Donald Trump stated today on the X platform that a short-term rise in oil prices is acceptable, and once the Iranian nuclear threat is eliminated, oil prices may quickly retreat.According to Gate market data, XTI (WTI crude oil) reached a high of $110.53 in 24 hours, currently reported at $109.36, with an increase of 18.64%; XBR (Brent crude oil) peaked at $113.84 in 24 hours, currently reported at $109.86, with an increase of 17%, indicating significant market volatility. Data from CoinGlass shows that as the market rapidly surged, the trading activity of crude oil derivatives also increased.Among them, Gate XBR (Brent crude oil) had a 24-hour contract trading volume of $12 million, a month-on-month increase of 951.37%, ranking first globally; XTI (WTI crude oil) had a 24-hour contract trading volume of $21.15 million, a month-on-month increase of 397.08%, also ranking first globally, with continuous growth in capital attention and market participation.Gate has pioneered the metal contract trading sector, providing 24/7 uninterrupted trading, offering users greater strategic flexibility and asset management efficiency in volatile markets. Gate contracts cover various traditional financial assets, including stocks, metals, foreign exchange, indices, and commodities, supporting trading in gold, silver, and crude oil. Gate continues to build a more efficient and professional multi-asset one-stop trading platform for global users.

"BTC OG insider whale" agent Garrett Jin posted on the X platform, stating that recent geopolitical events have caused fluctuations in macro indicators, which in turn affect the cryptocurrency market. Garrett Jin believes that the current key indicators include: crude oil, the U.S. dollar index, and the U.S. 2-year/10-year Treasury yield, and stated, "We are still within the risk range, but now is a typical time to remain cautious."The current changes in macroeconomic indicators mentioned by Garrett Jin are as follows: the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield has risen to 3.49%, and the 10-year yield is at 4.05% (the yield curve is positive, but geopolitical risks are increasing macro uncertainty), with Bitcoin rising 5% in the short term as a safe-haven asset. Garrett Jin hinted that investors should avoid chasing highs amid volatility driven by geopolitical events, prioritizing the observation of oil prices and dollar dynamics to assess the downside risks for cryptocurrencies.