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The U.S. September CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, raising concerns about inflation. The U.S. bond market initially saw yields surge after the data was released, but then fell back to a three-week low due to safe-haven buying.Tonight, PPI and retail sales data will be released, and market volatility may increase.

Federal Reserve's Barkin stated that the CPI report was higher than his expectations.

The U.S. September seasonally adjusted core CPI year-on-year is 2.6%, expected 2.50%, previous value 2.40%.The U.S. September seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month is 0.3%, expected 0.20%, previous value 0.30%. The U.S. September seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month is 0.6%, expected 0.60%, previous value 0.40%.

The U.S. September seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate is 3.7%, expected 3.6%, previous value 3.40%.

Bitcoin has retreated from around $86,000 at the beginning of October, fluctuating in the range of $81,000 to $84,000 in recent days, while the US dollar has strengthened and US Treasury yields remain high. Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the likelihood of breaking down from the fluctuation range is greater.The ISM services price index rose to 74.0 in September, the highest since July 2022, and the one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan rose to 4.7% in October. The rise in price components and inflation expectations indicates that the probability of CPI exceeding expectations this Thursday is not low; if this materializes, the pricing for interest rate hikes at the end of the year will be further strengthened, and the lower bound of $81,000 will be tested first. Only if CPI is below expectations will the breakthrough of the upper bound of $84,000 have sustainability.The recent decline in chip stocks is mainly due to the repricing of AI capital expenditures and hardware profit expectations. The retracement of Bitcoin is smaller, indicating that its pricing is more aligned with macro liquidity, and its correlation with the AI narrative is weakening; however, this divergence is temporary. Once the US dollar and long-term interest rates regain dominance in pricing, the linkage will quickly strengthen, with the CPI announcement on Thursday evening serving as a recent testing window.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI data tonight at 20:30. The agency expects the overall CPI year-on-year increase to rise from 3.4% in August to 3.6%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, marking the largest increase in nearly five months, mainly driven by a rebound in energy prices. The core CPI is expected to increase by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the previous value of 0.3%.This CPI report is the last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on October 27-28. CME data shows that the market currently expects a 17% probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October. If the core CPI month-on-month increase reaches 0.3%, it may reinforce expectations for a rate hike this month; if it meets the expectation of 0.2%, the Federal Reserve may pause action and delay the rate hike decision until December. In addition, the U.S. will release PPI data on Thursday, and both CPI and PPI will affect the market's judgment on future inflation trends and the Federal Reserve's policy path.

CoinShares pointed out in its latest biweekly market report that last week, the net outflow of the U.S. spot BTC ETF was $679 million, with a single-day net outflow of $485 million on Wednesday, setting a record for the largest single-day outflow since June; the ETH ETF saw a net outflow of $542 million last week, accumulating nearly $700 million in outflows over nine consecutive trading days.BTC approached $87,000 on October 5, then fell back to about $80,300, and subsequently rebounded to around $83,500. The report shows that the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq index has risen back to about 40% of the long-term average, while the correlation with inflation-linked bonds continues to strengthen.CoinShares believes that the U.S. CPI data to be released this week will be an important variable: if the core CPI rises by 0.3% month-on-month, it may strengthen market expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October, putting BTC at risk of testing $80,000 again.

Danske Bank analyst Silje Bue stated that the US dollar remains near an 18-month high due to weakened market risk appetite and supportive comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate hikes.The market is focused on the US inflation data on Wednesday to assess the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions. Bue mentioned that even if the CPI data indicates that the Federal Reserve may raise rates once each quarter, the strong pattern of the dollar may be difficult to change.

Macquarie Group strategist Thierry Wizman stated that the U.S. September CPI is expected to accelerate, but it is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in October.Analysts expect the overall CPI in September to increase year-on-year from 3.4% in August to 3.6%. Market pricing indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the meeting on October 28 is about 19%.

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that whether Bitcoin can regain the $84,500 level this week will depend on whether the U.S. CPI data changes market expectations for interest rates and yields, as well as whether spot market buying can follow up.This round of correction is similar to multiple adjustments during the previous recovery phase, and investors with holding costs within the original trading range have not shown significant selling. However, spot buying remains a weak link in the current market, with Bitcoin ETF investors' average holding cost around $84,340, and the current price is below this level, leading some investors to potentially sell as the rebound approaches their cost level.Analysts believe that if this week's core CPI month-on-month increase is 0.2% or lower, it may reduce market interest rate hike expectations and drive yields down, providing room for BTC to rise; if the core CPI reaches 0.3% or higher, it may continue to suppress the performance of risk assets. BTC may fluctuate in the range of $81,300 to $84,500 in the short term.If the price breaks through and stabilizes above $84,500, while ETF fund flows are strong, the market may retest the year-to-date opening level of $87,722; if it falls below $81,300 with continued capital outflow, it may further dip to around $77,400, the true market average level.

According to the market report from QCP Group, BTC has shown relatively stable performance one year after the largest single-day liquidation event in October last year. Despite market concerns over the U.S. government's transfer of a large amount of BTC and the hacking of Ledger, the price remains in a range-bound fluctuation. BTC has repeatedly attempted to break through $87,000 without success, but the support at $80,000 below is relatively solid.In the options market, implied volatility remains high, with put option premiums narrowing, and the market overall leans towards waiting for a breakout rather than defensive positioning; if BTC effectively breaks through $87,000, the next target may point to $94,000. Notably, there is a large-scale long position in a 90,000/95,000/100,000 dollar call butterfly option expiring on October 30, which is the largest concentration of positions for the current month-end.This week, the macroeconomic environment will face a key test, with U.S. CPI and PPI data being released successively. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will speak at the IMF-World Bank annual meeting. The market is currently pricing in about a 17% probability of a rate hike in October, and the aforementioned data and policy signals may become important triggers for BTC's directional choice.

X-Agent officially announced the award results of the X-Agent AI MCP Hackathon 2026. This hackathon featured two main tracks: Open Innovation and the OlaXBT × X-Agent Trading Challenge. The champions of each track will receive 500 USDT + 15,000 X-Points, and the Top 5 teams from both tracks will also receive corresponding X-Points rewards based on their final rankings.Among them, Sumplus Model Desk won the championship in the Open Innovation track, while Strategy Increment won the championship in the OlaXBT × X-Agent Trading Challenge track. The total rewards for this event reached 1,000 USDT + 100,000 X-Points.It is noteworthy that X-Points, as an important record mechanism for contributions and participation in the X-Agent ecosystem, is expected to provide opportunities for token airdrop rewards in the future, further enhancing the potential value of the Hackathon rewards.X-Agent stated that all winning teams will receive further notifications via GitHub. Through this Hackathon, X-Agent will continue to promote developers in advancing real AI capabilities from the validation stage to MCP productization, Agent distribution, and commercialization.

QCP Capital released the latest market analysis stating that BTC has broken through the previous trading range of $82,500 to $85,700 that lasted for a week, reaching a high of $86,913 during the day, the highest since September 23. It is currently trading around $85,900, up 14.6% from the low of $74,968 on September 15. QCP pointed out that during this round of increase, the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts was only 5.4%, indicating that the market was mainly driven by spot funds rather than leveraged trading. QCP believes that this round of BTC's rise diverges from traditional macro market signals. In September, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 5.62%, and the 10-year yield reached 5.29% at one point, while gold recorded its worst month of the year. Although rising real interest rates typically put pressure on gold and risk assets, BTC still rose.QCP believes that this market trend is more consistent with concentrated capital trading driven by institutional fund inflows, regulatory catalysts, and technical improvements, rather than purely a currency depreciation trading logic. Regarding institutional funds and regulatory factors, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded net inflows of approximately $3.5 billion and $2.6 billion in August and September, respectively. QCP noted that the innovative exemption policy released by the U.S. SEC on September 17 provided a new regulatory catalyst for the market, but since the CLARITY Act failed to pass in the Senate earlier, market structure legislation may be delayed until 2027. Therefore, current regulatory support comes more from the administrative level, and long-term policy certainty remains limited.In the options market, yesterday's options trading nominal amount was approximately $2.5 billion, involving 54 transactions with a nominal amount exceeding $5 million each. Among them, one client sold in batches call options expiring on October 30 with a strike price of $90,000, totaling over 4,000 contracts with a nominal amount of $346 million; at the same time, they actively bought call options with the same strike price expiring on November 27. QCP believes that this operation reflects that some traders are rolling their positions from October to November to position for the U.S. midterm elections, quarterly Treasury refinancing, and market volatility around the December Federal Reserve meeting.On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting from October 27 to 28. QCP stated that after Federal Reserve official Williams said there was no need to rush to adjust policies further, and with the August core PCE coming in below expectations, market expectations for maintaining interest rates in October have warmed. However, the market still expects an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December. The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September, to be released tonight, will be an important short-term test, with the market expecting an increase in non-farm payrolls of 84,000 to 93,000, an unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, and an average hourly wage year-on-year growth rate expected to be 3%.On the technical front, the support level of $82,500 has been tested three times in the past week, while $87,400 is the location of the September high and is a key resistance for BTC to further challenge $90,000. The implied volatility term structure in the options market is in a contango state, with a 7-day implied volatility of 30.3 and a 90-day implied volatility of 37.1; the 30-day risk reversal indicator is approximately -2.5 volatility points, indicating an increase in demand for short-term put protection. QCP believes that although BTC shows resilience in a macro environment of rising real interest rates, the market is still mainly driven by capital flows and position changes, and it cannot yet be considered that macro risks have been eliminated. U.S. employment data, Treasury supply, and the intensive policy events in the coming weeks may still trigger market volatility.

According to The Defiant, the crypto data and research platform Blockworks has announced the launch of a managed MCP server, opening its entire dataset to AI agents. This server is built on the Model Context Protocol, allowing AI tools such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Cursor to access the datasets behind Blockworks Research and its Intel applications.Blockworks stated that this service is provided with every API package at no additional cost, allowing users to access it using the same key and permissions. MCP is an open protocol that enables AI models to connect to external data sources and tools, and this integration means that AI agents can directly call upon Blockworks' research and market data.

CoinMarketCap announced on platform X that its Chief Product Officer David Salamon will assume the role of Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately. The former Chief Executive Officer Rush, after leading CoinMarketCap for five years, will transition to oversee the expansion of the group's new business line.CoinMarketCap stated that David Salamon joined CoinMarketCap in 2022 and during his tenure as Chief Product Officer, he led the development of CMC AI, which has surpassed 10 million users; he also spearheaded the reconstruction of CoinMarketCap's on-chain data infrastructure, with DexScan currently tracking 107 chains.

According to QCP analysis, the global market opened under multi-asset pressure, with investors reducing risk exposure. The Nasdaq 100 index fell from 744.45 to 737.76 in pre-market trading, gold dropped from $4260 to $4147, Bitcoin decreased from $84500 to $82800, and the dollar index also declined, reflecting broad deleveraging rather than a shift to safe-haven assets.QCP stated that the main driving factor is geopolitical: the United States rejected a ceasefire condition proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz last weekend, reigniting concerns over energy supply disruptions and driving a significant rise in Brent crude oil. This week, the U.S. macroeconomic calendar is packed. Following the recent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the PCE price index and non-farm payroll report are key data points, and the market remains highly sensitive to data that could influence further adjustments in monetary policy. In terms of crypto options, front-end implied volatility remains high, with traders pricing for downside protection. Spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows show hesitation amid broader clearing. Bitcoin's recent technical strength faces dual pressure from geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic data risks, with key support levels being closely monitored.

According to the Economic Daily, the shipment of optical CPO related equipment for joint packaging is increasing. Suppliers such as ZhiDe, GaoMingTie, and DongYouDa have stated that orders from Europe, America, and Asia are flooding in, with order visibility extending to the second quarter of next year, and they are simultaneously starting factory expansions. Customers' demand for high-precision motion platforms and automated optical coupling equipment is increasing, with a noticeable rise in clients from Southeast Asia, including Singapore and Malaysia, in addition to major manufacturers in Europe and America.ZhiDe stated that after receiving thousands of orders for international CPO equipment, they have recently made new gains and are negotiating cooperation on CPO alignment modules with domestic and major manufacturers in Europe and America, with overall orders initially looking at a thousand units. The company is expanding production in the Shugu Garden and Nanke Park in response to demand, expecting to launch new capacity in the fourth quarter and continue to ramp up production next year.GaoMingTie has been certified by the world's top ten optical communication brands and has secured orders for 800G and 1.6T optical module coupling alignment modules, with optical communication product revenue accounting for 79% in the first half of the year. The company has acquired about 60% equity in an optical and medical factory in Taichung, and after establishing a production assembly line, the estimated capacity can be expanded by more than double, with the Dongguan subsidiary expected to ramp up production after mid-next year. DongYouDa is collaborating with the Japanese company Junhe on CPO optical coupling equipment, with order visibility extending to the second quarter of next year, and has already initiated plans to establish factories in Vietnam, India, and Mexico, increasing capacity utilization from 70% by the end of 2025 to 80%.