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Reuters survey: The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations for December remain solid, but there is still controversy over the end of the tightening cycle

A Reuters survey shows that about 55% of the economists surveyed, or 56 out of 101, expect that the interest rate hike in December will mark the end of the current tightening cycle, a figure that is basically unchanged from last month.However, 45 economists still expect that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least two more times, including more than half of the surveyed primary dealers, which is consistent with the expectations reflected in market pricing, and believe that the risks to the inflation outlook have not changed since the U.S. midterm elections. Changes in the political landscape are unlikely to quickly alleviate inflationary pressures.Despite market hopes that the nearly 9-month-long Middle East conflict could be resolved, leading to a drop of over 22% in crude oil futures prices from the late October peak, inflationary pressures still persist. A strong labor market, resilient economic growth, and inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for nearly six years all indicate that further tightening of monetary policy is still necessary.Wells Fargo Chief Economist Tom Porcelli stated, "The Federal Reserve's decision-making depends on the upcoming inflation data, which will prompt it to raise rates again. In fact, the Federal Reserve has every reason to raise rates at the October meeting."

first_img AI data centers are turning to second-hand gas turbines, with new machine delivery cycles lasting up to 6 years

According to a report by Decrypt, due to the long delivery cycle of new gas turbines, AI data center developers are turning to second-hand gas turbines and retired jet engines. Data from the energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie shows that the average delivery time for new gas turbines in the United States has reached 6 years, with related delivery discussions focusing on 2030 and 2031. Reuters reports that global gas turbine orders have exceeded 100 gigawatts, while manufacturers' annual production capacity is estimated to be only 60 to 70 gigawatts. Siemens Energy, GE Vernova, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have all stated that order growth exceeds production capacity.One response is to retrofit gas turbines based on aircraft jet engine technology. AI infrastructure company Crusoe ordered 13 units from ProEnergy in Missouri in April, each with a rated power of 50 megawatts, totaling 650 megawatts, for future data centers in the United States. Equipment brokers and energy analysts say that well-maintained second-hand turbines sell for about $1.5 million to $1.7 million per megawatt, while new ones cost about $2 million to $2.5 million per megawatt.The International Energy Agency expects global data center electricity consumption to increase from 485 terawatt-hours in 2025 to 950 terawatt-hours in 2030, with electricity consumption for AI facilities expected to double during the same period. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency states that stationary turbines and engines used by data centers must comply with federal air pollution standards. Finnish manufacturer Wärtsilä told Reuters that it has received orders for about 3 gigawatts of gas engine generators from U.S. data centers since spring 2025.

UBS stated that the market underestimates the AI cycle, and a return inflection point may occur in 2027

According to Bloomberg, Gerry Fowler, Chief European Equity Strategist and Head of Derivatives at UBS, stated that the market has underestimated the duration of the AI cycle, and AI trading remains robust. He pointed out that the valuation multiples of some hyperscale cloud vendors have fallen below 20 times, while revenue continues to grow by 10% to 20% annually, reflecting a rather pessimistic market expectation. Therefore, many investors are still willing to re-enter AI-related assets.Fowler believes that massive AI spending may be nearing a stage where it starts to yield returns, with a potential turning point in 2027: data center deliveries are expected to release backlogged orders, driving revenue to gradually catch up with capital expenditures. He mentioned that cash has not disappeared from the market but has shifted to suppliers like memory chip manufacturers, who are beginning to return cash to investors. The market pricing for memory chip companies also reflects what he believes is an overly short AI cycle.Regarding the next phase of beneficiaries, Fowler is more focused on global and European industrial companies that help build new factories. He noted that many infrastructure suppliers, such as those providing cables and electrical equipment, have orders booked through 2027 or even 2028, leaving limited room for upward revisions in profit forecasts. ASML benefits by supplying equipment to memory manufacturers like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, rather than directly supplying data centers; he stated that ASML and some European industrial companies are receiving upward revisions in expectations.

Analyst: In each U.S. midterm election cycle, Bitcoin has shown a significant pullback, and attention should be paid to the key support level of $73,000

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Charts stated that as the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 approach, investors may overlook the recurring phenomenon of Bitcoin pullbacks observed in previous election cycles. He believes that this election may once again be accompanied by significant volatility, and the downside risk is worth noting, with a key focus on the lower price level of $73,000. According to his statistics, during the U.S. midterm election cycles in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin experienced pullbacks of 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, respectively.However, he emphasized that correlation does not imply causation; the election itself may not necessarily be the reason for the decline, as these pullbacks are also influenced by the overall market cycle of Bitcoin, liquidity conditions, and investor sentiment. Fourth-quarter returns also exhibit similar characteristics: in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin fell by 16.7%, 42.16%, and 14.75% in the fourth quarter, respectively. The only exception was in 2010, when it rose by 391%, but Bitcoin was still in its early development stage at that time. Therefore, in the past four midterm election years, three of those years recorded negative returns in the fourth quarter.Regarding the subsequent trend, Ali Charts indicated that the area around $73,000 is close to the average purchase cost of current short-term Bitcoin holders, which can be used to observe the positions of recent investors entering the market. He pointed out that in an established bull market, Bitcoin often finds support near the cost of short-term holders after experiencing a significant pullback. He believes that if selling pressure accelerates after the election on November 3, pushing Bitcoin back down to around $73,000, that area will become an important position to test whether buyers are still willing to maintain the overall bullish trend. If the price continues to rebound from that area, it will strengthen the bullish judgment; in terms of operations, he will wait for signs of selling pressure exhaustion and renewed demand before considering establishing long positions.
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