economist

A recent Reuters survey shows that the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook is changing. The expectation for an interest rate hike in October has cooled, but the surveyed economists collectively expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates again in December.In the survey conducted from October 16 to 20, 94 economists expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 3.75% to 4.00% at the meeting on October 27 to 28. This judgment is consistent with the expectations reflected in market pricing, and this meeting is just days before the U.S. midterm elections in November.The interest rate expectations for December have shifted. In last month's survey, less than half of the economists expected the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December; in this survey, all 100 respondents expect a rate hike at that time.

According to the Straits Times, Edward Robinson, Chief Economist of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, stated at the Beijing Financial Street Forum on October 20 that once artificial intelligence leads to widespread productivity improvements, central banks may relax monetary policy. However, currently, the AI investment boom is driving demand, and policies should maintain appropriate restrictions. He pointed out that AI-related investments are driving economic growth, but the technology has not yet brought significant productivity improvements to the broader economy, and he called for a gradual, data-driven approach.The Monetary Authority tightened monetary policy in April and July 2026 due to rising inflation risks, and maintained the policy unchanged in October. An October 14 statement warned that if the AI boom generates broader economic spillovers and raises unit labor costs, domestic inflation may remain high. Robinson noted that AI-driven electronic products accounted for over 70% of this year's export growth in Asia, but the growth of industries producing AI-related technologies mainly stems from increased investment and more intensive use of existing resources, rather than efficiency improvements. He cited OECD estimates stating that if sufficiently widespread and appropriately invested, AI could increase total factor productivity growth by up to 0.6 percentage points annually.

A Reuters survey shows that 100 surveyed economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December 2026, while action may be paused in October.Among them, 94 expect that by the end of 2026, the federal funds rate will rise to 4.00% - 4.25%. In contrast, in the September survey, only 29 economists held this expectation out of 76 respondents.

Blockworks co-founder Jason Yanowitz shares the judgment of Apollo's chief economist: agents may trigger bank runs by aggregating household cash.The chief economist stated that agents could transfer household cash from accounts with a national average interest rate of 0.1% to accounts paying 3% to 5%, causing banks to lose a significant portion of their cheap deposits.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, warned that record diesel prices could pose an inflation threat greater than the Federal Reserve expects. Slok stated that the impact of diesel-related transportation costs differs from that of gasoline prices, as it is crucial to economic activity, and price increases will be passed on to businesses and consumers. Currently, inflation levels remain above the central bank's 2% target, and Slok believes the Federal Reserve cannot view the rise in diesel prices as a temporary phenomenon.

Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at this month's meeting and maintain this until the end of 2027, despite rising market expectations for a rate hike.Surveys show that only 13 economists anticipate a rate increase this month, while the market believes there is a 70% chance of a rate hike next week. Yelena Shulyatyeva warned that rising inflation could change the current situation.

The Economist estimates that AI has created about 1 million new jobs in the United States so far, far exceeding the approximately 200,000 jobs cut due to AI since mid-2023. This conclusion is based on the employment data for August released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on September 4: the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The unemployment rate for young people aged 20-24 is now close to its lowest level in decades compared to the overall unemployment rate.Job growth mainly comes from high-skilled positions directly serving AI and blue-collar jobs driven by data center construction. Since 2022, about 730,000 jobs exceeding the trend line have been added for engineers, software developers, mathematicians, and data scientists. The chief economist at Burning Glass Institute estimates that currently about 1% of professional jobs in the U.S. can be classified as AI jobs, with that proportion reaching 4% to 5% in the fields of computer and life sciences. Spending on data center construction has increased by 60% within a year, leading to a rise in demand for electricians, HVAC technicians, and others. Data from Indeed shows that salaries for data center installation and maintenance jobs are about 40% higher than similar positions.Customer service positions have shrunk by about 10% since January 2023, and administrative assistants have decreased by about 15%. Microsoft and Meta have reduced staff while restructuring their businesses around AI, and companies like Block and Intuit have replaced some manual labor with automation tools. On average, U.S. companies announce about 16,000 layoffs related to AI each month. Economist Noah Smith points out that it is currently difficult to find occupations eliminated by AI in labor data.

Bloomberg's chief economist Anna Wong stated that next week's non-farm payroll report may show weakness, with a certain probability of recording negative growth, which will have a critical impact on the Federal Reserve's policy path.She pointed out that if there are two consecutive negative non-farm data, there is no precedent in modern Federal Reserve history for raising interest rates under such circumstances.

Recently, Peter McCrory, the head of economics at Anthropic, explained the AI unemployment paradox. He pointed out that AI capabilities have significantly improved, raising reasonable questions about why there has not yet been a noticeable impact on unemployment rates. The U.S. Business Trends and Outlook Survey shows that about one-fifth of U.S. businesses use AI to some extent, and productivity growth in the U.S. has strengthened in recent years, some of which may be related to AI.McCrory stated that the unemployment rate in the labor market is still close to the full employment level identified by the Federal Reserve, and even deep data analysis makes it difficult to draw clear conclusions about the impact of AI. The basic judgment is that so far, AI has shown characteristics of skill-biased technology, automating certain work processes while complementing and amplifying the professional skills that rely on human participation, thereby creating maximum value in human-machine collaboration.

According to the latest report from The Economist Enterprise, after 13 years of development and multiple strategic upgrades, Gate is gradually expanding from a traditional cryptocurrency trading platform to a comprehensive financial infrastructure that connects digital assets with traditional financial markets. The report points out that as more traditional financial products such as stocks, ETFs, tokenized assets, foreign exchange, and metals enter the digital asset ecosystem, Gate is further bridging the gap between crypto finance and TradFi through multi-asset product layouts and global infrastructure development. Gate's founder and CEO Dr. Han stated in an exclusive interview that as the industry develops, digital asset platforms are facing not only technical issues but also risk management, user protection, and industry regulation.In terms of TradFi integration, Gate has formed a multi-layered layout from tokenized assets and derivatives to native stock trading, launching products and services such as xStocks, Ondo, Gate TradFi, Pre-IPOs, direct IPOs, and Gate Stocks. Among these, Gate Stocks has supported trading of U.S., Hong Kong, and South Korean stocks, significantly lowering the barriers for global users to participate in traditional financial markets. At the same time, Gate is continuously improving its around-the-clock trading and liquidity infrastructure to meet the needs of global users for cross-market asset allocation.The Economist Enterprise also points out that as the digital asset market further moves towards institutionalization, compliance, transparency, and infrastructure capability are becoming important components of platform competition. Gate continues to advance its global compliance layout across multiple jurisdictions and has been providing third-party audits and open-source proof of reserves since 2020. In addition, Gate is introducing AI infrastructure into Web3, connecting AI with trading, wallets, and more services through products like Gate AI, Gate MCP, and GateClaw, promoting the platform's evolution from a traditional trading venue to a comprehensive financial infrastructure that connects digital assets, traditional finance, and AI applications.

According to Jinshi reports, Paul Zangieri, a senior economist at Prudential Investment, is closely monitoring the communication wording of the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the FOMC will "maintain or even strengthen its hawkish tone," as ongoing inflation, rising oil prices, and internal disagreements within the FOMC open the door for further tightening of policies later this year.

According to Jinshi reports, Joseph Lavorgna, Chief U.S. Economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, stated that if the inflation rate does not slow down, Federal Reserve policymakers will lose their hard-earned credibility. He pointed out that in the past 70 years, there have only been six instances where the core inflation rate decreased year-on-year by 0.9% or more, and each time the inflation slowdown was due to the Federal Reserve tightening its policy.Lavorgna emphasized that the longer the Federal Reserve waits, the greater the probability that interest rates will rise above necessary levels.

According to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that since 2023, for the first time, more economists predict that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates rather than cut them.

According to official social media news, former senior economist of the Federal Reserve and professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University's Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Hu Jie, will be a guest at the Huobi Celebrity Lecture today at 20:00 (UTC+8). This session is themed "From Wall Street to Web3: How Will the New Chairman of the Federal Reserve Reshape Global Financial Markets?" It will provide an in-depth interpretation of the changes in policy paradigms following the new chairman's appointment, the direction of global liquidity, the evolution of the dollar system, and its impact on the Web3 market.As a renowned scholar who has long studied global macroeconomics and financial markets, Professor Hu Jie will analyze the future trends of global capital markets from the dual perspectives of policy formulation and market operation, drawing on his experience at the Federal Reserve, and discuss the new opportunities and challenges faced by the Web3 industry in the context of the accelerated integration of digital assets and traditional finance.

According to Jinshi News, Capital Economics believes that the Federal Reserve will likely remain on hold this week. The agency's North America Chief Economist Stephen Brown speculates that Waller's remarks may be more hawkish than expected, and the market risk lies in communication errors or changes in Waller's stance. Brown warns that if Waller is constrained by Trump, a dovish tone could raise concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and push up long-term bond yields. He also stated that there is a high possibility of two "insurance rate hikes" in December and early next year.

According to Jinshi reports, economists have raised their forecasts for U.S. inflation and delayed the timeline for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut, expecting the core PCE index to remain above 3%. Surveys show that economists are evenly split on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, whereas previous predictions anticipated a rate cut in October. Wilmington Trust Corp Chief Economist Luke Tilly stated that consumer spending is weak and expects the unemployment rate to peak at 4.5% in the third quarter.

According to Jinshi reports, economist Anna Wong stated that the hiring performance in April was unexpectedly strong, but the unemployment rate rose. This combination suggests that the job growth rate needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate may be higher than the near-zero growth level previously estimated by the Federal Reserve. In the April employment report, the freight industry contributed more than half of the new jobs for the month, confirming the improvement signals released in recent PMI and regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys. Wong expects the Federal Reserve to likely keep interest rates unchanged until the fourth quarter, at which point, as the unemployment rate rises, a 50 basis point rate cut is anticipated.

According to Jinshi reports, former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman and economist Roger Ferguson stated that the labor market is currently in a generally stable state, but inflation remains high at 3%, and much work still needs to be done. He expects the Federal Reserve to temporarily hold its position and observe the development of the situation. Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle also expects that the statement after the Federal Reserve meeting will acknowledge the improvement in the job market and the rise in inflation, but the policy guidance will remain unchanged, with most expecting to maintain interest rates.