favorable

Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl stated that the global alternative asset market has grown nearly 7 times since the 2008 financial crisis, with the share of private equity, private credit, hedge funds, physical assets, and cryptocurrency in global portfolios continuing to rise. According to the data he cited, within alternative assets, private equity accounts for about 29%, hedge funds about 23%, and cryptocurrency about 13%.Zach Pandl mentioned that differences in intergenerational allocation preferences may further strengthen this trend. According to a Bank of America survey of high-net-worth individuals, investors aged 21 to 43 allocate about 53% of their assets outside of traditional stocks and bonds, while the proportion for those aged 44 and above is 26%. With over $100 trillion in wealth expected to transfer to younger generations in the coming years, their stronger preference for alternative assets may provide ongoing tailwinds for cryptocurrency.He added that the lowering of entry barriers to alternative assets is one of the reasons for this shift, with cryptocurrency developing along similar paths; regulated products like Bitcoin ETPs and institutional-grade market infrastructure provide more convenient access to exposure.

BIT released a market analysis stating that, from a technical perspective, gold may be in a bottoming phase. The report also pointed out that its views differ from the current market consensus: although the bond market is still factoring in expectations of two rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year, it judges that there may not be any rate hikes this year.

According to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, with "maintaining rates but leaning hawkish" (probability of 50%) as the baseline scenario, which could lead to the S&P 500 index remaining flat or declining by 0.5%. Meanwhile, "maintaining rates but leaning dovish" (probability of 28%) is seen as the most favorable scenario for the market, potentially driving the index up by as much as 1%. A 25 basis point rate hike (probability of 20%) could result in the S&P 500 index declining by 1.5% to 2%.

According to CoinDesk, analysts say that if the Federal Reserve releases any dovish signals, it could be beneficial for Bitcoin. There is significant divergence in the market regarding whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Wednesday—CME FedWatch data shows a 70% probability of maintaining rates and a 30% probability of an unexpected 25 basis point hike. Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman pointed out that the reduction in forward guidance usage by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has led to increased market uncertainty, making this FOMC meeting one of the most uncertain in years.Bitcoin has risen about 6% so far in July, while the S&P 500 has remained flat, and the semiconductor sector has dropped nearly 20%. K33 Research's research director Vetle Lunde stated that the Nasdaq had previously been strong and positions were stretched, with Bitcoin continuing to consolidate near multi-year lows, leading to a weakening correlation between the two. This week's FOMC meeting may have limited impact on BTC. Rahman stated, "Any dovish signals could drive Bitcoin to continue outperforming."

According to The Block, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated that the bottom for Bitcoin may be around $53,600, which is the current realized price and has historically marked the bottom of bear markets multiple times. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $62,150, about 9% higher than that level. However, demand conditions remain weak. CryptoQuant estimates that total demand decreased by 652,000 BTC last week, marking the largest single-week decline since January 2022. The 30-day ETF demand growth has dropped to -74,000 BTC, the weakest level since the ETF was launched. Meanwhile, the realized losses over the past 30 days amount to 187,000 BTC, significantly lower than the 400,000 BTC when it first fell below $60,000 in February and the 1.2 million BTC during the FTX collapse in November 2022, indicating that a capitulation-style sell-off has not yet been reached. Moreno stated that while the price level may suggest a bottom is near, a bull market requires a recovery in demand, which has not yet been reflected in the data. Until total demand stabilizes, ETF capital flows recover, and realized losses reach capitulation peaks, the current price should be viewed as a candidate for valuation bottom rather than a confirmed cycle bottom.

According to Cointelegraph, SpaceX plans to conduct a $75 billion IPO in June, and if its valuation reaches $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion after going public, it may enter the Nasdaq 100 index within 15 trading days through Nasdaq's "fast track" rule, thereby increasing the index's exposure to Bitcoin.According to SpaceX's latest S-1 filing, it holds 18,712 BTC, valued at approximately $1.45 billion. If combined with Tesla's 11,509 BTC, the two companies under Musk will become significant holders of Bitcoin in the Nasdaq 100.Strategy CEO Phong Le stated that with the SpaceX IPO, Mag 7 will become Mag 8, with 25% of the companies' balance sheets holding Bitcoin.However, analyst Nic Puckrin believes that the SpaceX IPO could be bad news for tech stocks. After being included in the Nasdaq 100, passive funds will need to buy SpaceX and sell existing components like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, potentially creating a large-scale capital siphoning effect.Reports indicate that Bitcoin has recently been highly correlated with large tech stocks, with a 30-day correlation of approximately 0.81 between BTC and the Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS). Analysts suggest that if tech stocks face pressure due to index rebalancing, Bitcoin may also face downward risks in the short term.

According to a report by Jinshi, Zaheer Anwari, an analyst at Revacy Fund, pointed out that the outlook for interest rate hikes in the U.S. supports the dollar due to high energy prices. He stated that persistent inflationary pressures have led the market to form the expectation that "interest rates will remain high for a long time." LSEG data shows that the U.S. money market has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve before March 2027, and the market believes there is a 62% probability of a rate hike by the end of 2026.

According to Decrypt, the price of Bitcoin remains around $80,350, with a short-term increase of only 0.8%, continuing to face pressure after multiple attempts to break through the $82,000 resistance level failed. This range is seen as a combined resistance level of the ETF cost line, the 200-day moving average, and the CME gap filling area. Although the U.S. CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, bringing positive expectations for crypto regulation, institutional funds continue to withdraw.Data shows that the net outflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has decreased to an average of -$88 million per day over the past seven days, marking the largest outflow since mid-February. Analysts believe that this round of selling pressure is more about "profit-taking" rather than panic selling. On a macro level, rising U.S. Treasury yields have become a core source of pressure. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to about 4.52%, reaching a 10-month high, while the April CPI has increased by 3.8% year-on-year, the highest level in three years, further delaying market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.Analysts point out that geopolitical conflicts are driving up energy prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures, thereby weakening the appeal of risk assets. From an institutional perspective, some analysts believe that the current outflow of ETF funds is part of portfolio rebalancing rather than a trend-based withdrawal.The options market shows that Bitcoin faces significant resistance in the $82,000-$84,000 range, while $77,000 is a key support level. If the price falls below this range and leverage does not cool down, the market may enter a deleveraging phase, increasing the risk of a correction.

According to CoinDesk, Ethereum application developer Consensys has postponed its potential IPO plans until at least the fall due to unfavorable market conditions. Consensys had planned to confidentially submit an S-1 registration statement to the SEC by the end of February this year and had hired JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs to lead the process.In February 2026, the cryptocurrency market saw a significant decline due to macroeconomic uncertainties, tariff concerns, and outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, leading several crypto companies to suspend their IPO plans. BitGo was the only crypto-native company to go public in 2026, but its stock price fell about 36% from its IPO price. A Consensys spokesperson stated that they do not comment on market speculation. Consensys completed a $450 million Series D funding round in early 2022, with a valuation of $7 billion.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Williams stated that U.S. monetary policy remains in a favorable position to respond to an uncertain economic environment.

According to Jinshi reports, New York Fed President Williams reiterated that monetary policy remains in a favorable position to address the threat of long-term supply shocks caused by the Middle East war. He stated that the current monetary policy stance can balance the risks to employment and inflation targets. Williams expects U.S. economic growth this year to be between 2% and 2.5%, with an unemployment rate of about 4.25% to 4.5%, and an inflation rate between 2.75% and 3%.

Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, a company in the Ethereum treasury, stated in an interview with CNBC, "The reason the stock market remains resilient is that even in the face of war, the economy is actually performing better than expected." He pointed out that defense spending is currently about $30 billion per month and could rise to $60 billion per month in the future, which has a significant stimulating effect on the economy; meanwhile, the rise in oil prices by $20 per month only adds about $12 billion in burden to households, "Overall, the war is actually helping corporate profits right now."Tom Lee cited historical precedents, saying, "Looking back at World War II, the stock market bottomed out in May 1942, just five months after the U.S. entered the war, and at that time, no American troops had even set foot on the European or Pacific battlefields." He believes, "The market is very good at pricing in outcomes ahead of time; the current rise in the stock market means that the market is pricing in a favorable outcome, although I can't clearly articulate the specific reasons, but that's the signal conveyed by the market's performance."Regarding the three major variables in the current market— the Iran war, corporate earnings reports, and interest rates—Tom Lee stated, "Among the three, only war can create tail events in both directions, so this is the variable that deserves the closest attention." In terms of sector allocation, he remains bullish on the energy sector and pointed out that energy security is one of the most important structural themes in recent years.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the Federal Reserve is currently in a favorable position to decide on future interest rate adjustments.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Williams stated that the current monetary policy is "in a favorable position" to support the Federal Reserve's goals.

According to Forbes, Trump recently warned that U.S. military actions against Iran could last more than five weeks, stating that "the real large-scale operations have not yet begun, and the big ones will come soon." The market believes that if the Middle East conflict becomes prolonged, it may drive up fiscal spending and increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy or even restarting large-scale liquidity injections, which could benefit cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Some aggressive predictions suggest that Bitcoin may hit highs of $200,000 to $500,000 within the year.Additionally, a potential financial crisis driven by artificial intelligence could trigger impacts more severe than those of 2008, also favoring Bitcoin to reach new historical highs. Analysts point out that geopolitical risks, expectations of fiscal expansion, and shifts in monetary policy are becoming important macro variables for the current market's bets on Bitcoin's upward movement.

According to Cointelegraph, NYDIG's research director Greg Cipolaro stated that if artificial intelligence disrupts the labor market or causes volatility that prompts central banks to ease monetary policy, Bitcoin will benefit. He pointed out that AI, as a "general technology," will transmit its effects on employment and economic growth to Bitcoin.If AI-driven growth is accompanied by liquidity expansion and controlled real interest rates, it will support Bitcoin; conversely, if it raises real yields and tightens policy, Bitcoin may come under pressure. If AI triggers labor disruptions and leads to monetary easing, liquidity injections will be favorable for Bitcoin. He acknowledged that the transition will bring challenges but expects AI to follow the "historical pattern" of technological development—integrating rather than displacing.

According to Jinshi, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon stated that the current macroeconomic situation is very favorable for risk assets.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that the current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is "in a favorable position" to respond to potential future situations.