fluctuation

Binance customer service responded to user inquiries regarding losses from AKEUSDT contract trading, stating that during September 3, 05:44 (UTC+8), the AKE token experienced severe price fluctuations across the entire market. Multiple mainstream trading platforms and on-chain trends were basically consistent, indicating market volatility rather than abnormal pricing on a single platform.Binance explained that since Binance has not launched AKE spot trading, the AKEUSDT contract price is calculated based on the spot market prices across the entire network, rather than Binance's own spot market. The liquidation mechanism uses the mark price, which comprehensively references multiple market price data to reduce the impact of abnormal fluctuations. After verification, Binance's system is operating normally, and no anomalies were found in the pricing mechanism; this incident falls under the normal risk of leveraged positions in extreme market conditions.

Glassnode released a report stating that a short squeeze in mid-August drove Bitcoin's rebound, breaking above $80,000 on August 27. However, the price subsequently encountered resistance in the long-term supply zone above and fell back to around $76,000, triggering a series of long liquidations. Currently, there is still a large amount of potential short liquidation positions clustered between $83,000 and $86,000, while the area between $60,000 and $63,000 contains an undigested long liquidation zone, with BTC positioned between the two.On-chain data shows that when Bitcoin traded around $78,000 in May this year, about 65% of the supply was in profit; by the end of August, when it returned to the same price level, that ratio had risen to 68%. The summer redistribution of chips pushed the cost basis of short-term holders to about $71,000, and the same price now would activate more profit-taking chips, increasing potential selling pressure. Considering the overall cost basis and chip distribution, the accumulation support zone is between $62,000 and $65,000, while the concentrated supply zone for long-term holders is between $83,000 and $86,000.The average net inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF during the rebound peaked at $290 million per day over seven days, but the daily trading volume in the secondary market remained around $3 billion, significantly lower than during the previous expansion phase. Meanwhile, the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds briefly fell to 4.6% after the Treasury's repurchase announcement on August 19, but returned to 4.8% in just eight trading days, reaching a new high for this cycle, indicating that sovereign debt pressure is still affecting market valuations. In the options market, short-term optimism has cooled, while long-term options demand remains. The open interest for Deribit and IBIT options expiring on September 25 is about $14 billion, with a large number of positions concentrated above $80,000, which may become important volatility and position anchor points in the coming weeks. Before the supply above $83,000 to $86,000 is digested, BTC will continue to maintain range-bound fluctuations, with $62,000 to $65,000 being the main downward reference area.

Options traders expect that after Nvidia's second-quarter earnings announcement, the stock price will rise/fall by 5.4%, with a market value fluctuation of approximately $280 billion, lower than the expected volatility of 6.5% before the May financial report.ORATS data shows that this expectation is below the average level of 7.4% over the past 12 quarters.

According to comprehensive reports from authoritative media such as Reuters, U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra will announce details of sanctions against Iran at 2 PM Eastern Time, "which is 2 AM Beijing time tomorrow." As the cryptocurrency market has been strong for several days prior to these sanctions, if the details exceed market expectations, the stock market and cryptocurrencies may experience significant volatility.Previously, Becerra stated in an article for the Financial Times that the U.S. is entering a decisive phase. At dawn, an economic "D-Day" against Iran is about to arrive ------ this is the largest financial offensive ever launched against hostile forces. While explaining the relevant sanctions measures, Becerra specifically added that "large-scale" military action is not expected to be necessary anymore.

According to Glassnode, the last time Bitcoin experienced such a significant daily closing increase was in February of this year, primarily as a rebound from the previous day's 14% drop. This rise is not due to a technical rebound following a crash; relative to its 30-day volatility, this increase reached 5.8 standard deviations, marking the largest upward volatility since October 2023.

According to BeInCrypto, Sean Farrell, the head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, released a research report indicating that Bitcoin's current 30-day price volatility has dropped to historically low levels. Reviewing the past eight similar low-volatility periods, the median absolute price change of Bitcoin over the subsequent 60 days has reached about 30.2%, with four instances of increases and four instances of decreases.Based on the current price of approximately $64,000, a 30% upward volatility would target a price of about $83,200; if it goes downward, it would be around $44,800. Farrell also pointed out that Bitcoin's approximately 2% rebound this Monday was mainly driven by short covering, and the future direction remains unclear, while the continuous rise in real bond yields poses the greatest downside risk at present.

The latest report from 10x Research indicates that Bitcoin trading volume has dropped to a small fraction of the peak levels seen after the U.S. presidential inauguration and during the flash crash last October, while the price has entered one of the narrowest volatility ranges in months. Historically, similar low-volatility states are often difficult to sustain in the long term.Additionally, options flow shows that traders' market confidence is changing, and positions have begun to adjust. Bitcoin's implied volatility has also fallen to a low level rarely seen outside of the summer off-season, while ETF inflows remain weak, and stablecoins continue to flow out of the crypto market. Strategy, which was once one of the most stable buyers in the market, has become a seller for four consecutive weeks.

According to SoSoValue data, the cryptocurrency market sector showed mixed results, with the DeFi sector performing prominently, rising by 1.04%. Among them, Hyperliquid (HYPE) rose by 1.74%, and Chainlink (LINK) rose by 2.42%. The Meme sector increased by 0.7% in 24 hours, with Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) rising by 9.04% and Pump.fun (PUMP) rising by 8.76%.In other sectors, the PayFi sector rose by 0.4%, with eCash (XEC) increasing by 1.56%. The Layer1 sector rose by 0.2%, with Cosmos Hub (ATOM) increasing by 8.71%. Additionally, the CeFi sector fell by 0.07%, but Cronos (CRO) remained relatively strong, rising by 1.07%. The Layer2 sector decreased by 0.97%, while Optimism (OP) rose by 4.11%. The cryptocurrency sector index reflecting historical market trends shows that the ssiAI, ssiDeFi, and ssiMeme indices rose by 1.93%, 1.29%, and 1.28%, respectively.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's current volatility has compressed to very low levels, and the market has not yet formed a clear direction. The Bollinger Band width is currently around 3.8% to 3.9%, one of the lowest levels in the past two years, while it was still at double-digit levels at the beginning of July. He pointed out that a significant narrowing of the Bollinger Bands usually indicates that the market is entering a compression phase before volatility expansion, but this indicator alone cannot determine the direction of the next market trend.In terms of trend strength, the Bitcoin ADX indicator has currently dropped to 11, close to recent lows, and is significantly below the 25 threshold used by its model to confirm trends. Currently, TrendActive has not yet been activated, and neither bullish nor bearish signals have appeared; the last directional signal at the beginning of July was bearish, but the current market structure no longer confirms this signal. Adler stated that for the market to enter a new trend phase, the Bollinger Band width needs to expand again from the current compressed state, while the ADX breaks above 25. Subsequently, the direction can be judged based on the relationship between +DI and -DI: if one side leads by more than 5 points, it may trigger the corresponding bullish or bearish signal. He believes that Bitcoin is still in a consolidation phase, with both volatility and trend strength at low levels, and the risk of a false breakout in the short term still exists. The current structure increases the possibility of significant volatility expansion in the future, but it is still unclear whether the price will ultimately break upwards or downwards.

Regarding the abnormal and severe fluctuations in the perpetual contract market for TUT (TUTUSDT), Lobster (LobsterUSDT), and BICO (BICOUSDT) on August 9, 2026, Gate has promptly initiated a special review and risk control investigation. To protect users' legitimate rights and interests, Gate will provide full USDT compensation to affected users who meet the compensation criteria. The platform has opened a special processing channel, and affected users can contact Gate through official channels such as VIP account managers and online customer service. The platform will assist in implementing the compensation plan within three working days and will distribute the compensation amount to users' spot accounts.Gate stated that user rights are always the core focus of the platform, and it will continue to strengthen the identification of abnormal trading, risk control in low liquidity markets, dynamic management of risk parameters, and the construction of pricing and settlement mechanisms, further enhancing the platform's risk prevention capabilities and market governance level. Gate is committed to creating a fair, transparent, and secure trading environment, continuously listening to user feedback, and working with the community to maintain a healthy and stable market ecosystem.

According to Gate market data, the BSC ecosystem token TUT has surged again after a significant fluctuation in the past 24 hours. As of the time of writing, TUT is priced at $0.221954, with a 24-hour increase of 51.69%.Additionally, according to Coinglass data, TUT has experienced over $45 million in liquidations today, leading the entire network, with short positions liquidated amounting to $41.53 million.

Renowned trader Killa expressed his technical analysis on Bitcoin, stating that if Bitcoin falls below the current weekly high (65,300 USD), it will retrace to test the monthly opening price of around 62,700 USD. However, if it can strongly break through and stay above the resistance level of 65,300 USD, it may further rise to around 66,900 USD.Overall, the judgment is that the market has been in a consolidation range for the past two months, with no obvious breakout signals. Killa, as a quantitative trader focused on BTC, predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at 74,688 USD and switched to long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's implied volatility on the 30th fell to a long-term support level of 36%, with the price maintaining a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, reminded that a low-volatility environment will lower trading costs, thereby encouraging traders to establish large directional bets and hedge positions; once the market breaks through key price levels, the passive hedging behavior of market makers will amplify market fluctuations, driving a mean-reversion rebound in volatility.On the market sentiment front, Paul-Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, stated that the current demand for put options has significantly cooled, but there is also a lack of buying interest for call options. Glassnode summarized this state as "there is neither capital to buy into the rise nor capital to buy into the fall," believing that this phenomenon often represents the market nearing a cyclical bottom. The divergence in the trends of Dogecoin and Bitcoin also indirectly reflects the continued low speculative sentiment.Howard believes that favorable regulatory advances like the Clarity Act, which drive institutional ETF capital inflows, may become an important catalyst for the next round of market movements; while the failure of negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz and inflation exceeding expectations pose major downside risks.

According to Jinshi reports, the US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell by 0.02% on August 4, closing at 99.894 in the foreign exchange market. 1 euro exchanged for 1.1514 US dollars, down from 1.1531 US dollars the previous trading day; 1 pound exchanged for 1.3431 US dollars, down from 1.3482 US dollars the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 156.74 Japanese yen, down from 158.9 Japanese yen the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 0.8101 Swiss francs, up from 0.8082 Swiss francs the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 1.4045 Canadian dollars, up from 1.4019 Canadian dollars the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 9.5557 Swedish kronor, up from 9.5193 Swedish kronor the previous trading day.

According to Daum, the South Korean stock market has recently experienced increased volatility, with investors' risk appetite significantly cooling, and funds are flowing back from the stock market to safer assets such as banks. Due to adjustments in the semiconductor sector and stricter regulations on leveraged investments, the funds waiting to be invested in the South Korean stock market are rapidly withdrawing, leading to a phenomenon of "reverse capital migration."Data shows that by the end of July, the balance of time deposits at the five major banks in South Korea (KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori, NH Nonghyup) reached 973.49 trillion won, an increase of 24.09 trillion won compared to the end of the previous month, marking the largest monthly increase this year.There has also been a noticeable contraction in funds around the stock market. Data from the Korea Financial Investment Association shows that the deposits in investors' securities accounts (funds waiting to be invested in stock trading) reached a historical high of 139.69 trillion won on June 4, but had fallen to 107.20 trillion won by July 28, a decrease of over 32 trillion won in less than two months. The balance of credit trading financing, which represents the scale of market financing transactions, also dropped to 33.19 trillion won during the same period, down approximately 4.5 trillion won from the peak of 37.72 trillion won recorded on July 2, a decrease of about 12%.

According to Jinshi, this week the US stock market experienced rare fluctuations. Have those most eager to sell already sold out? The liquidation actions of star funds have triggered a rebound in AI stocks, and investors need to pay attention to the best judgment timing for next week's opening.

In response to the abnormal volatility in the SK hynix perpetual contract market, Hyperliquid stated that the platform is an unlicensed blockchain, and the HIP-3 market can be independently deployed and operated by different teams. The xyz:SKHYNIX perpetual contract is deployed and operated by the Trade.xyz team, which is currently investigating the incident and will announce progress after reaching a conclusion.Hyperliquid also explained that HIP-3 deployers can independently push the market's mark price, oracle price, and external perpetual price inputs. If a pricing mechanism similar to that used by platform validators for operating perpetual contracts is adopted, the protocol only provides one of the three median components, namely the on-chain latest transaction price, the best buy price, and the best sell price median, while the other two components are provided by the deployer, who jointly determines the final mark price.

Lighter tweeted that a trading bot malfunctioned on July 25, briefly affecting the HYPE and ZEC markets. During the incident, the HYPE price reached $60.96 and $56.31 within half a minute, while the external trading price was around $58 at the same time, and then the price recovered within a minute. There were no forced liquidations across the market, and losses were limited to the accounts that triggered the issue.The bot was launched with $500,000 in funds and traded $27 million back and forth on HYPE within 5 minutes, accounting for 74.2% of the market trading volume; it generated $220.8 million in order volume on ZEC, accounting for 86.7%, causing the ZEC price to briefly rise to $521. Lighter stated that the risk engine marked positions with fair prices to resist manipulation and rejected 801 orders when margin was insufficient. Ultimately, the bot incurred a loss of about $482,000, all from its own funds. Lighter's liquidity pool (LLP) earned about $143,000, and 40 independent accounts each made over $1,000 in profit.

As the trading heat of the gold market continues to rise, the activity in the related derivatives market has further increased. According to CoinGlass data, the total open interest for gold (XAU) contracts across the network reached 880 million USD, with the Gate platform's open interest at approximately 238 million USD, ranking second among global exchanges. Meanwhile, the total open interest for Tether Gold (XAUT) contracts across the network reached 528 million USD, with the Gate platform's open interest at approximately 118 million USD, ranking third among global exchanges.