bulls

CoinGlass stated, "During yesterday's decline, Bitcoin's open interest (OI) actually increased as the price fell, indicating that shorts were clearly adding positions, forming a relatively clean short position buildup. This wave of movement ultimately touched around $68,750.Currently, the price has rebounded, but OI has shown almost no significant change, which usually means this rebound is not driven by new longs. Therefore, it currently resembles range-bound fluctuations rather than a clear trend reversal. Moving forward, it is important to focus on the changes in Bitcoin's price and OI."

According to market news, the number of planned layoffs in the U.S. surged to 108,435 in January, the highest level since January 2009, representing a month-on-month increase of 205% and a year-on-year increase of 118%. This data contrasts with the still-resilient official non-farm payroll report and is seen as an early signal of a rapid cooling in the labor market.Human resources firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas noted that layoff plans are largely set for the end of 2025, reflecting employers' increasingly pessimistic outlook for 2026. At the same time, the blockchain-based real-time inflation indicator Truflation shows that the U.S. inflation rate has plummeted to below 1%, far lower than the official CPI data. These unofficial indicators collectively suggest that economic growth is slowing, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to shift towards interest rate cuts to support the economy.Analysts have differing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's subsequent policies. JPMorgan expects interest rates to remain unchanged until 2027, while other banks predict at least two rate cuts this year. Some economists anticipate that Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve chair nominee by Trump, may cut rates by 100 basis points before the midterm elections in November.The market believes that a potential shift in monetary policy could provide support for risk assets like Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin has currently fallen nearly 50% from its historical high of over $126,000 last October.

According to market news, there are still ETH bulls buying.Longling Capital's associated address withdrew 8,500 ETH from Binance 9 hours ago, worth $17.51 million, at a withdrawal price of $2,059.55. The CVault Finance deployment address bought 4,431.77 ETH through Uniswap 2 hours ago, worth $8.17 million, at a cost of $1,844.78.

On-chain data analyst Murphy posted on social media that after Bitcoin reached a high of $97,000 on January 15, it quickly dropped to $73,000, swiftly breaking through the psychological support of $80,000. Under the dominance of panic sentiment, the trapped positions above $80,000 have net decreased by over 610,000 coins within 20 days, accounting for 88% of the total outflow, becoming the main source of selling pressure.However, on-chain URPD data reveals an important structural change: the selling pressure from long-term holders has significantly weakened (only accounting for 9.7% of the reduction), indicating a clear reluctance to sell among long-term holders. Meanwhile, there has been strong buying in the $70,000-$80,000 range, with a net purchase of about 450,000 BTC, nearly double the absorption volume in the $80,000-$90,000 range, suggesting that some funds are "buying more as prices drop," using real money to layer their resistance.Murphy stated that the difference in this cycle compared to previous ones is that bulls are showing sustained and layered defense during the decline, with the accumulation zones gradually moving down rather than collapsing in a step-like manner. Although there are pessimistic predictions that "the bear bottom will see $50,000 or $30,000," once the bears compress the bulls' defense to the extreme, coupled with a lack of supply, the market may welcome a strong counterattack from the bulls.

According to CoinDesk, the Bitcoin futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) have shown a significant price gap, bringing a glimmer of hope to Bitcoin bulls.The futures contract closed at $84,445 last Friday, while the opening price on Sunday was $77,385, creating a price difference. This gap arose as the weekend saw Bitcoin's spot price drop to around $75,000, while the CME futures market was closed during this period. The CME futures gap refers to the difference between the closing price of the futures contract and the opening price of the next trading day. Since this market does not trade 24 hours, significant price movements during the closure can create such gaps. Traders typically pay attention to these gaps, as historical data shows that they often get "filled" in the following period, meaning the price returns to the level before the gap, but this is not absolute. As of the report, the CME Bitcoin futures price was around $78,230, still about 7% to 8% lower than last Friday's closing price.

The cryptocurrency trading indicator analysis platform CoinKarma stated, "BTC rose to nearly $98,000 this Monday, but as it approached that price level, the market experienced the most significant selling pressure in recent weeks, causing a slight price pullback.However, the overall liquidity between buyers and sellers has not shown a significant imbalance and remains relatively balanced. Other key market indicators have not yet shown clear signals. Based on the current situation, long positions entered at relatively low points earlier this year may consider taking profits, with the option to fully or partially close positions and wait for clearer signals before re-entering."

According to Coinbob's popular address monitoring, the ZEC price briefly dropped by 6.4%, hitting a low of $449 before rebounding to around $465. During this fluctuation, the largest long whale on Hyperliquid (0x152) saw its position shift from profit to loss, and then decisively increased its position near $459, adding 2,486 ZEC (approximately $1.14 million) within 10 minutes. Over the past 20 hours, it has cumulatively increased its long position by 9,871 ZEC (approximately $4.54 million). Currently, this whale holds a 10x leveraged long position in ZEC, with a scale of about $12.35 million and an average price of $463.Additionally, Coinbob monitoring shows that the "largest short" whale in ZEC is still at a floating loss and has not adjusted its ZEC short position recently, with a current position size of about $17.48 million and an average price of $419, resulting in a floating loss of $1.64 million (47%). Meanwhile, the "altcoin short army leader" has been continuously increasing its ZEC short position over the past few hours, currently raising its ZEC short position size to $2.08 million and is still continuing to add to it.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, the "die-hard bull" whale (0x10a3c) closed a stop-loss position of 93.82 million USD in BTC long positions 18 minutes ago, incurring a loss of 1.689 million USD. Currently, with high leverage, all long positions are in a state of floating loss, as follows:Long 5 billion PUMP with 10x leverage, average entry price 0.0025 USD, floating loss of 299,000 USD;Long 30 million FARTCOIN with 10x leverage, average entry price 0.4542 USD, floating loss of 776,000 USD.

According to Cointelegraph, crypto analyst "Daan Crypto Trades" pointed out that Bitcoin is currently hovering around a key technical price level, which serves as the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone, a critical support and resistance level in the market cycle that must be effectively supported to avoid significant losses. If it breaks below this level, the price of Bitcoin may drop to the April low of around $76,000, and testing this low would break the existing market structure in the long-term timeframe.On Sunday evening, the Bitcoin market experienced a sharp liquidation of short-term leverage, with both long and short leverage positions being liquidated. The price briefly dipped below $88,000 before quickly rebounding above $91,500, which is undoubtedly an example of a low liquidity weekend market being manipulated to simultaneously clear long and short leverage positions.

According to GMGN market information, the Solana ecosystem meme coin PIPPIN has risen against the trend today, currently priced at $0.1788, with a 24-hour increase of 61.9%.Additionally, analyst @frontrunnersx noted that PIPPIN has exhibited unusual trading patterns. Some wallets are accumulating and refusing to sell, driving up the price and attracting short sellers, who are continuously "spiked" into liquidation, creating a leveraged "death loop." One address purchased approximately $200,000 worth of PIPPIN six days ago, sold after the price doubled, and is currently performing a similar operation on ARC.

Greeks.live Chinese community briefing points out: The market is in a state of extreme panic, with group members generally bearish, believing they are experiencing a spiral of suffocation. Key focus levels: BTC 86800-85000 USD, ETH 3000-2000 USD. Most traders believe that a large-scale liquidation is needed to stop the decline, and some members expect a rebound after Thanksgiving, but there is a disagreement on the bottom position, with some seeing 76000 USD or even 50000 USD.BTC open interest has reached an all-time high while prices continue to fall, with a long-short ratio of 4:1. The market consensus is that the bulls are being gradually liquidated. The briefing also notes that analysts, including the CEO of CryptoQuant, believe that the deleveraging cycle is nearing its end, but traders in the group generally do not trust the calls and emphasize the need to act according to strategy. Greeks.live believes that the safest option currently is to hold cash as king in USDT and wait for opportunities.

According to HyperInsight monitoring analysis, among the 26 whales on Hyperliquid with BTC holdings exceeding 20 million USD, there are 12 long positions and 14 short positions. All long positions are experiencing varying degrees of unrealized losses (ranging from approximately -14% to -870%), while all short positions are seeing varying degrees of unrealized gains (ranging from approximately 14% to 647%).In addition, according to incomplete statistics, the stop-loss/stop-gain ranges for the aforementioned whales are as follows (excluding extreme values and excess margin addresses):Long positions:Stop-loss order range: 82,000 USD --- 89,000 USD;Liquidation range: 74,100 USD --- 84,900 USD, average 79,300 USD;Average holding price: 102,190 USDShort positions:Take-profit order range: 75,000 USD --- 89,000 USD;Liquidation range: 98,000 USD --- 136,000 USD, average 116,000 USD;Average holding price: 104,920 USDAdditionally, according to Coinglass data, if BTC rises to 92,800 USD, the total network short liquidation intensity will reach 475 million USD; if BTC falls to 89,480 USD, the total network long liquidation intensity will reach 873 million USD.

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel, stating, "Jokes aside, the current price action (PA) aligns with my expectations of the market structure transitioning from Regime 3 to Regime 4. The evolution of events takes time, and Bitcoin hasn't dropped below $100,000 yet, so the bulls haven't completely lost ground.However, the slower the decline and the longer the price stays in this range, the worse the outlook will be. I believe the next few months will be tough for most of us. We must find a balance between preserving capital and not falling into excessive bearishness.Of course, completely disconnecting and exiting the market is not the best choice—after all, the overall global risk markets and macro outlook remain positive.The trend of crypto speculators flowing into global stock markets is likely to continue until that 'ultimate bubble' bursts. But I think entering the stock market now is like buying NFTs in mid-2021. In this dilemma, we can only rely on poetry to guide us through the stars."

ChainCatcher message, according to HyperInsight monitoring, in the past 4 hours, the BTC price has been fluctuating narrowly between $107,500 and $108,600, with the market entering a short-term consolidation phase. During this period, a total of 11 BTC whales opened new positions exceeding $1 million, of which 10 chose to establish long positions, while only 1 opened a short position, resulting in a long-short ratio as high as 10:1.From the active trading data of mainstream exchanges, in the past four hours, the active buy and sell orders show that the long position accounts for 51.6%: Binance long position accounts for 51.27%; OKX long position accounts for 52.31%; Bybit long position accounts for 51.82%. ChainCatcher reminds investors that the volatility in the cryptocurrency market has significantly increased recently, and investors should pay attention to risk control.

ChainCatcher news, according to Gelonghui, StoneX analyst Matt Simpson stated that the bullish sentiment for the USD/JPY is highly alert to a bullish breakout on the chart. The analyst pointed out that this rise has reversed last week's bearish trend. He believes that whether the USD/JPY can continue to rise may depend on the confirmation of whether Japan's new Prime Minister can influence the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike path. Simpson added, "However, at the moment, it seems that the exchange rate pullbacks easily attract buyers."