outlook

BTC OG insider whale agent Garrett Jin released a market outlook indicating that the macro environment has clearly tightened this week, with Brent crude oil approaching $95, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond breaking through 4.8%. The market's expectation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to about 70%. Bitcoin has slightly retraced under this pressure but successfully held the key support level of $76,600, then rebounded to the high range of $77,000.On-chain cost basis data shows that a significant amount of new supply has formed in the $75,000 to $80,000 range, providing strong support for the market; the $80,000 to $82,500 range is currently the largest concentration of resistance. A daily close above $82,500 and a successful retest confirmation will be a key signal for supply clearance. In terms of ETF liquidity, there was a net inflow of about $3.5 billion into U.S. spot ETFs in August, but a two-way flow has appeared at the start of September, with a net outflow of about $237 million on Tuesday, and retail activity has also cooled down.Regarding downside risks, if the daily close falls below $76,600, and ETF flows, Coinbase premiums, and 7-day net realized profits all weaken simultaneously, it will be seen as a clear warning signal. This Friday's non-farm payroll data will be the next important macro testing point; if the data is hot, it will strengthen rate hike expectations, and the $76,600 support may come under pressure again.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated on social media that a few days ago, Bitcoin did not break through the resistance level of $81,000, and since then, it has been looking for a pullback, which is between $75,500 and $76,000, after which it continues to look bullish towards the next resistance level of $86,000.The judgments made over the past few months have been mostly correct, but that does not mean they will always be correct in the future. Every trade must be approached with caution and a fresh perspective. Making mistakes is normal; many people say that discussing market trends can easily be disproven, and one mistake can lead to failure. However, facing challenges and continuously improving is the entrepreneurial spirit, and failure is also a part of the business process.

According to Jinshi reports, the main theme of this week's market is dominated by changes in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. After Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech on Friday, the dollar quickly surged, closing at 99.69, up 0.85% for the week. Against the backdrop of rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, gold faced overall pressure, falling 3.24% for the week; spot silver dropped 3.82% this week.Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time): Monday is pending, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting will be held until September 1; Tuesday at 17:00, Eurozone August CPI data; Eurozone July unemployment rate; Tuesday at 22:00, U.S. August ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. July JOLTs job openings, U.S. July construction spending month-on-month; Tuesday is pending, the 2026 SCO member states heads of state council meeting will be held; Wednesday at 20:15, U.S. August ADP employment change; Wednesday at 22:00, U.S. July factory orders month-on-month; Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions; Thursday at 16:00, Eurozone August Services PMI final value; Thursday at 17:00, Eurozone July PPI month-on-month; Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will be interviewed; Friday at 03:00, 2026 FOMC voting member Harker will deliver an opening speech at the "Federal Reserve Community" event; Friday at 20:30, U.S. August unemployment rate, U.S. August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, U.S. August average hourly earnings year-on-year and month-on-month.The highlight of next week's data will be the U.S. August employment report on Friday. This report is the last employment data before the September 16 interest rate meeting and is a key window to assess the policy path after Waller's hawkish stance. Previously, Nvidia's strong performance and an expected revenue growth of about 70% for the next fiscal year have reignited enthusiasm for AI trading. Dell (DELL.O) will release its second-quarter earnings report after the market closes on Tuesday (September 1), with the market expecting an adjusted earnings per share of $4.91, more than doubling from the same period last year. Broadcom (AVGO.O) will release its third-quarter earnings report for fiscal year 2026 after the market closes on Wednesday (September 2).

NVIDIA (NVDA.O) Chief Financial Officer stated that the outlook for fiscal year 2028 will be affected by supply constraints.

NVIDIA's revenue outlook for Q3 of fiscal year 2027 is $108 billion, while the market expectation is $104.196 billion.

According to Cointelegraph, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich denied selling Bitcoin and expressed an optimistic outlook on Bitcoin's future.Earlier, ChainCatcher reported that the Bitcoin mining company Metaplanet deposited 1000 BTC into Coinbase Prime.

Tim Duy, Chief U.S. Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, stated that it has become common for several Federal Reserve officials to cast dissenting votes on interest rate decisions recently. Duy believes that the core concern for the market is how widespread the officials' worries about inflation are, especially when inflation is above target levels.The labor market is stabilizing, and some officials believe that interest rate hikes are necessary to curb inflation. The market will focus on the consensus within the Federal Reserve regarding concerns about inflation and the degree of policy divergence.

Super Micro Computer's stock rose about 10.4% in pre-market trading, after the company released a revenue outlook for fiscal year 2027 that exceeded market expectations.

BIT Official released a weekly report stating that the trading volume in the cryptocurrency market has fallen by 80% from its peak, and has contracted by about 60% from the peak in the fourth quarter of 2025; the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has also dropped by 50%. The report points out that if the trading volume cannot effectively recover, the market will struggle to form a sustained rebound.Despite the market still digesting the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the stalled progress of the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is currently maintaining a range between $62,000 and $66,000, and BIT Official expects Bitcoin to eventually break upward. The report states that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh has recently adopted a "say less, do less" communication strategy, and the uncertainty of his policy stance is disturbing the market. Walsh has been known for his hawkish stance over the past twenty years, but the market had previously anticipated that he might push for a more dovish monetary policy under Trump's support; if this change materializes, it could be beneficial for Bitcoin.In addition, predictive market data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law before the end of 2026 is currently only 32%. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the Senate will prioritize other issues, and as the August recess approaches, the remaining legislative window for this bill is further narrowing.

According to Coindesk, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stated that the decreased probability of the "Clarity Act" passing in the U.S. Senate this year poses a blow to the crypto market, and warned that further delays could undermine one of the industry's most important regulatory catalysts. JPMorgan noted that, due to the Senate prioritizing other bills before the summer recess, the market currently predicts that the probability of this bill passing before the end of the year is only 37%. Negotiations regarding ethical clauses, enforcement, DeFi, stablecoin yields, and anti-money laundering rules remain stalled.

According to Jinshi, the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell from a revised 92.2 in June to 90.8 in July, below the forecast of 92.3. Households' views on the labor market remain generally weak.The Conference Board's Chief Economist, Dana Peterson, stated that consumer feedback on economic factors in July remained predominantly pessimistic, with a slight increase in mentions of employment and unemployment.

Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode released the report "Charting Crypto Q3 2026," maintaining a neutral outlook on the crypto market.The report shows that on-chain data indicates Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, but the Fed's hawkish stance, weak spot ETF demand, and geopolitical risks continue to pressure the market outlook.

According to Jinshi, European Central Bank Governing Council member Slapin stated that as long as the overall inflation outlook requires it, the European Central Bank may raise interest rates in September even without a second-round effect.

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts stated that the recent increase in cash reserves and positive capital inflows into Bitcoin futures for Strategy are "encouraging signs" for Bitcoin's prospects, although the capital flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains unstable.Strategy's dollar reserves have increased from $2.55 billion to $3 billion, covering approximately 20 months of preferred stock dividends. JPMorgan previously indicated that if Strategy could rebuild sufficient dollar reserves to cover two to three years of dividends, it could alleviate market concerns about the possibility of being forced to sell Bitcoin in the future.Regarding ETFs, the capital flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs has been highly volatile in recent weeks, with inflows last week turning into outflows this week. In contrast, the capital flow for leveraged ETFs related to Strategy has remained stable with continuous positive inflows over the past seven weeks. Analysts believe that this buying pressure mainly comes from retail investors, which may support Strategy's stock price and prevent its common stock from falling below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings. Analysts noted that despite the outflows from the spot ETF this week, Bitcoin futures still recorded positive inflows, which is encouraging.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Logan stated that he is very optimistic about the productivity improvements brought by artificial intelligence in the long term. However, the current demand for AI investment is strong and real, which may bring inflationary pressure in the short term.

Multicoin Capital Managing Partner Tushar Jain stated that the crypto market has bottomed out and entered a turning point, with current market sentiment truly reaching a low. Recent major hacking incidents and other news have not triggered large-scale sell-offs, application adoption rates continue to rise, and prices have become disconnected from fundamentals.He maintains a long-term optimistic view on Solana, believing that SOL is the correct architecture for spot trading and tokenized securities; he is also optimistic about Hyperliquid's leading position in the derivatives space, currently holding significant positions in both. Regarding ZEC, he mentioned that Multicoin has accumulated a considerable proportion of the supply and believes it represents a return to the "crypto-punk" values of the industry, with the potential to enter the top five by market capitalization.In terms of position management, he employs a "three-part method": immediately buying one-third, dollar-cost averaging the second one-third, and keeping the final one-third as flexible funds to respond to major declines. After confirming that no hackers exploited the Zcash code vulnerability incident, the team significantly increased their positions.

According to Jinshi reports, the tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated sharply this week, with mutual attacks leading to the collapse of a fragile ceasefire agreement that had lasted for about three weeks. The inflationary pressure driven by rising oil prices has reignited expectations for the Federal Reserve to tighten its policies. During the same period, U.S. stocks largely ignored geopolitical uncertainties, with the "AI trading" frenzy regaining momentum, as the S&P 500 index approached an all-time high, and both it and the Nasdaq recorded a consecutive weekly gain. SK Hynix's ADR surged 13% on its first day, with a fundraising amount of $26.5 billion, making it the highest fundraising foreign company IPO in U.S. stock market history.In the coming week, the U.S.-Iran situation, U.S. CPI and other economic data, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials will capture Wall Street's attention. There is particular anticipation for whether Federal Reserve Chairman Waller can provide more clues about the interest rate outlook under questioning in Congress, although his determination to cancel forward guidance leaves little room for optimism. The macro data events for next week are as follows:MondayFederal Reserve Governor Waller speaksTuesdayU.S. ADP employment change for the week ending June 27U.S. June CPI and core CPIFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the House Financial Services Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingWednesday2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a fireside chatU.S. June PPI and core PPIFOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams speaksFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingFederal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditionsThursdayU.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, U.S. June retail sales month-on-month, U.S. July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan speaksFederal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks on the economy and monetary policy