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Citigroup: The reasons for interest rate hikes have disappeared, expecting the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts in October

Citigroup Research stated in the U.S. Economic Weekly published on July 2 that the U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed a significant weakening, strongly refuting the necessity for interest rate hikes. Citigroup believes that several factors that previously supported a hawkish stance, including rising oil prices, accelerated wage growth, and core PCE above target, have gradually faded, stating that "the reasons for rate hikes have disappeared."Data shows that in June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 57,000 jobs, far below expectations, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by a total of 74,000 jobs. After revision, the average monthly growth of non-farm payrolls over the past three months has dropped to about 111,000, a significant decline from over 180,000 before the revision. The unemployment rate in June fell from 4.296% to 4.189%, but Citigroup believes this is mainly due to the labor participation rate dropping from 61.8% to 61.5%. If the participation rate remains unchanged, the unemployment rate would actually rise to above 4.5%.Regarding inflation, Citigroup stated that multiple factors are collectively suppressing price pressures. Oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and July CPI and PCE data are expected to show a month-on-month decline; further slowing of housing rents will also drag down core CPI and core PCE. In addition, the revision of the core PCE methodology will adopt a more reasonable price adjustment approach for AI-related goods. Citigroup estimates that the year-on-year growth rate of the revised core PCE may be adjusted down by 20 to 30 basis points, which will be officially reflected in September.Citigroup maintains its baseline forecast, expecting the Federal Reserve to remain on hold at the FOMC meetings in July and September, with the first rate cut of 25 basis points occurring at the meeting on October 28, followed by another 25 basis points cut in December, bringing the federal funds rate range down to 3.0% to 3.25% by the end of the year. Citigroup also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates three more times in 2027, with a terminal rate range of 2.75% to 3.0%.

Data: On-chain data shows that during the continuous decline of BTC, large funds have not yet fled, with support appearing around $76,000

Analyst Murphy (@Murphychen888) posted on social media that from May 15 to 19, Bitcoin fell for five consecutive trading days. Previously, the market sentiment, which was once worried about missing out, quickly shifted, and some investors began to expect prices to fall back to the range of $40,000 to $50,000. However, from the on-chain chip structure, the attitude of large funds presents a different picture.According to the data from May 15, $66,000 and $78,000 are the two price levels with the most concentrated turnover, clearly reflecting the entry positions of large funds. It is worth noting that the chip column in the range of $80,000 to $82,000 is relatively low. Although Bitcoin's price stayed in this range for nearly a week, the turnover was sparse, indicating that after the price returned above $80,000, funds began to become cautious.By May 19, as the price fell, the chip column at $78,000 not only did not decrease but actually increased. The most significant change was at the $76,000 price level; previously, when the price broke through this position, the chips at this level were just over 200,000, but when the price fell back to this position, the chips had increased to about 380,000. Analysts believe this indicates that the funds that entered at $78,000 did not panic and flee due to breaking below their cost. When the price fell to $76,000, new funds chose to enter and support, showing a clear attitude.From the chip structure, a reasonable correction range is roughly between $78,000 and $66,000. A second retest into this range and completing the turnover is expected to give the structure stronger resilience. Although the final price low is still difficult to predict, the attitude of funds starting to act around $76,000 indicates a clear willingness to support the market below.

Gate Europe CEO Giovanni Cunti appeared at the Digital Assets Forum 2026, discussing the opportunities and challenges of MiCA with industry executives

According to official news, Gate Europe CEO Giovanni Cunti attended the Digital Assets Forum 2026 held in Malta on May 14 and participated in a roundtable discussion titled "Do We Need a MiCA 2.0? The Industry's Perspective," alongside OKX CEO Erald Ghoos, Crypto.com Executive Vice President Mariana Kushev, and Blockchain.com Non-Executive Director and European Policy Advisor Giles Swan. They discussed the regulatory practices, industry opportunities, and future development directions of the European crypto industry following the implementation of MiCA.Giovanni shared the phased achievements of Gate Europe in advancing the compliance process in Europe, as well as the challenges and opportunities the industry faces under the MiCA framework. He stated that Gate will continue to be at the forefront of compliant crypto asset service providers in Europe and actively promote the standardized development of the industry.As an important forum focusing on European digital asset regulation and industry trends, the Digital Assets Forum 2026 gathered regulators, industry executives, and practitioners to review the key progress made in the 18 months since the implementation of MiCA. Currently, Gate's Malta company, Gate Europe, has obtained European MiCA and PI licenses under the supervision of the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA). As the European digital asset regulatory framework matures, Gate is deepening its compliance layout in the European market and enhancing its influence in the global digital asset industry through active participation in industry dialogue and regulatory practices.

Public companies' weekly net purchases of BTC plummeted by over 80%, with Coinbase and Block making their first appearances in increasing holdings against the trend

According to SoSoValue data, as of 8 AM Eastern Time on May 11, 2026, the total net purchase of Bitcoin by publicly listed companies worldwide (excluding mining companies) for the week was $45.08 million, a decrease of 83.5% compared to two weeks ago.Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced an investment of $43 million (a decrease of 83.1% compared to two weeks ago) to purchase 535 Bitcoins at a price of $80,340, bringing its total holdings to 818,869 Bitcoins.The Japanese listed company Metaplanet did not purchase any Bitcoin last week.In addition, four other companies purchased Bitcoin last week. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced on May 7 that it had increased its holdings by 1,103 Bitcoins, with the specific expenditure not disclosed, bringing its total holdings to 16,949 Bitcoins; fintech company Block announced on May 7 that it had increased its holdings by 149 Bitcoins, with the specific purchase amount not disclosed, bringing its total holdings to 9,032 Bitcoins; Bitcoin company American Bitcoin announced on May 6 that it had purchased approximately 1,600 Bitcoins, with the specific amount not disclosed, bringing its total holdings to approximately 7,021 Bitcoins; and the UK Bitcoin company The Smarter Web Company announced on May 5 that it had invested $2.08 million to purchase 27 Bitcoins at a price of $77,087, bringing its total holdings to 2,805 Bitcoins.Capital B announced the completion of a €15.2 million financing round, with participants including global institutional investors and strategic investors Adam Back and TOBAM, aimed at accelerating Bitcoin purchases.As of the time of publication, the total amount of Bitcoin held by the publicly listed companies included in the statistics (excluding mining companies) is 1,088,090 Bitcoins, an increase of 0.3% compared to two weeks ago, with a current market value of approximately $88.32 billion, accounting for 5.4% of Bitcoin's circulating market value.

Polish cryptocurrency trading platform exposed for Ponzi scheme, former CEO disappears with 4,500 Bitcoin private keys

According to Politico, Poland's major cryptocurrency exchange Zondacrypto is facing a serious fraud investigation. Its former CEO went missing in 2022, taking with him the private keys to a cold wallet containing 4,500 bitcoins (currently worth over $340 million). The current CEO has admitted to being unable to access the wallet and has recently been reported to have fled to Israel. Prosecutors estimate potential losses for customers to be around $97 million.On-chain data shows that the bitcoin balance in the platform's hot wallet has plummeted by 99.7% since mid-2024, with users generally reporting difficulties in withdrawing funds. Polish Prime Minister Tusk estimates that up to 30,000 users may be affected.Tusk publicly accused the platform of being funded by Russian-linked money, used to finance opposition lawmakers to obstruct Poland's cryptocurrency regulatory legislation. He bluntly stated that this is a "Polish version of a Ponzi scheme" and criticized the president for vetoing the localization of the EU MiCA framework twice, making Poland a "paradise for scammers."The platform's board stated that they failed to obtain "verifiable information" from the missing CEO and have collectively resigned. The founder has been missing since 2022, and the previously mentioned "suspect kidnapping allegations" case is still under investigation. This incident is expected to prompt Poland and the EU to strengthen regulatory scrutiny of cryptocurrency exchanges.
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