predictions

According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. lawmakers will introduce a bipartisan bill to prohibit entities regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), including U.S. platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, from listing contracts related to sporting events.

According to Jinshi News, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos predicts that the U.S. December PCE inflation (both core and overall) will increase by 0.37% month-on-month (annualized rate of 4.5%).This will raise the core PCE index annual rate to 3%, the highest level since February 2025. The overall PCE annual rate is expected to be 2.9%, the highest level since March 2024.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin revealed that he made $70,000 last year on the prediction market platform Polymarket, with a strategy specifically betting against those "crazy predictions." Buterin stated, "I look for markets that are in crazy mode and then bet that the crazy thing won't happen." He placed bets with a principal of about $440,000, achieving an annualized return of approximately 16%.Vitalik cited examples such as markets betting that Trump would win the Nobel Peace Prize or that the dollar would collapse, which were good targets for his reverse bets. This is not the first time he has publicly discussed making profits from prediction markets; during the 2020 U.S. election, he also earned $58,000 using a similar strategy.

The user with the ID "Annica" on Polymarket has participated in 1,265 predictions since last August, the majority of which are "Musk" themed predictions. As of the time of writing, their total net profit exceeds $270,000, with the largest single profit reaching $91,600.

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen released five major predictions for cryptocurrency in 2026 on the X platform:Integration of cryptocurrency and traditional finance into a single market: Cryptocurrency exchanges will offer traditional assets (stocks, ETFs, commodities), while banks and fintech companies will adopt cryptocurrency trading and custody services, blurring the lines between cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Around-the-clock global trading will become the standard rather than an innovation.Stablecoins as global infrastructure: Stablecoins will surpass the digital dollar, becoming programmable settlement channels for remittances, salaries, fund management, and cross-border trade, especially in emerging markets where traditional banking services are slow and costly.The end of altcoin season: The long-anticipated altcoin season has never truly arrived; it is structural rather than cyclical. (In other words, it will never come.)Regulation is imperative: As global rules become increasingly clear, the "Wild West" era of offshore exchanges is coming to an end. Platforms that evade regulation will exit the market within three years.Structural rather than speculative growth: The next phase of cryptocurrency will be determined by macro factors and infrastructure: the global scaling of capital flows, market settlements, and payments.

Gemini's Director of Institutional Business, Patrick Liou, released five predictions for 2026.The 4-year Bitcoin cycle is dead; ETFs and institutional adoption have made the market more mature, with volatility dropping from a historical 80% to 25-40%, and drawdowns only 30% instead of the past 75-90%.Crypto will become a bipartisan issue in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, with the CLARITY Act expected to break through.The crypto prediction market will expand significantly, with Polymarket's growth attracting players like Coinbase.Digital asset reserve companies will merge to survive; MicroStrategy's massive losses in Q4 last year and a 60% drop in MSTR's stock price show the pressure.At least one country will sell part of its gold reserves to buy Bitcoin; Germany, Sweden, and the Czech Republic have publicly discussed BTC as a reserve asset. Liou believes that 2026 will be driven by institutions, policies, and sovereign capital, rather than speculative cycles.

Forbes published an article titled "What Is Bitcoin's Price Prediction For 2026," which points out that the currently available Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 vary widely. Analysts from Tom Lee, Standard Chartered Bank, and Bernstein are bullish, but there are also some institutions that are bearish.Although there is currently no single target price for Bitcoin in the market, predictions are concentrated in the range of $120,000 to $170,000, indicating that Bitcoin's price discovery is increasingly influenced by structural factors such as ETF fund flows and corporate treasury assets. If macroeconomic favorable factors strengthen and institutional participation accelerates, the potential upside could reach $250,000 or higher. How institutions choose to deploy capital will be a key factor in the rise of Bitcoin's price.

Leaders in the cryptocurrency industry had high hopes for the market in 2025; however, the predictions for Bitcoin's price by the end of this year from Michael Saylor, Tom Lee, and Arthur Hayes have not materialized.Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated earlier this year that Bitcoin would reach $200,000 or higher by the end of 2025, and in his November blog column, he said, "I will stick to my prediction, and of course, if I'm wrong, that's okay." As December arrived, Hayes ultimately admitted that his past predictions were "pretty bad."Tom Lee, chairman of the Ethereum treasury company BitMine, was very optimistic at the beginning of the year, stating on CNBC in January that he expected Bitcoin's price to soar to $250,000 by the end of the year. By the end of November, Tom Lee had revised his prediction down to over $100,000.Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, also made overly optimistic predictions, stating earlier this year that Bitcoin would continue to rise steadily as institutions poured in. Ultimately, on October 29, Michael Saylor stated, "Our current expectation is that the price should be around $150,000 by the end of the year."

Pantera Capital researcher Jay Yu published 12 predictions for the cryptocurrency market in 2026 on the X platform:Capital-efficient consumer credit: Combining on-chain and off-chain credit modeling, modular design, and AI user behavior learning will become the new frontier of crypto lending;Divergence in prediction markets: It will split into financial directions combined with DeFi and cultural directions capturing pop culture and long-tail enthusiasts;Rise of Agentic Commerce: The x402 protocol will expand into conventional payments, with Solana potentially surpassing Base in tiered trading volume;AI as the crypto interface layer: AI-assisted analytics, project research, and wallet tracking will permeate most consumer-grade crypto applications;Tokenized gold rises: It will become a leading asset in the RWA space as a safe-haven asset;Bitcoin quantum threat panic: Technological breakthroughs may trigger discussions about quantum computing threats, prompting holding institutions to develop contingency plans;Unified privacy development experience: Privacy-as-a-service bundles will emerge, simplifying the integration of privacy technologies into enterprise workflows;DAT integration: DAT will undergo consolidation, retaining only 2 to 3 in each major area through mergers or liquidations;Breaking the boundaries between tokens and equity: Convertible equity tokens may emerge, and the regulatory framework for token legal ownership will tend to solidify;Hyperliquid maintains Perp DEX dominance: The USDC share on HYPE may be replaced by USDe and USDH;Professional-grade AMMs moving to multi-chain: They will account for over half of Solana's trading volume and begin pricing assets like RWA;Stablecoin international settlements: Fintech companies like Stripe, Ramp, Brex, and Klarna will use stablecoins for international settlements.

Gate Web3 Wallet is launching the "BTC Year-End Closing Price" prediction challenge from December 25 to December 31, inviting users to predict the closing price of BTC at the end of the year. Users can complete designated Swap or Web3 DEX trading tasks within the Gate App and submit their predictions for the BTC closing price on December 31 through the official form, giving them a chance to win generous cash rewards.In addition, Gate Web3's efficient trading tool Meme Go has launched a long-term "Global Smart Money Talent Recruitment Program." This program aims to recruit on-chain hunters and community KOLs with keen insights from around the world. Upon joining, they can enter the official core talent pool. Members in the pool will have priority access to official business collaborations, early airdrop whitelist opportunities, and Gate's official multi-million traffic support, enjoying long-term monetization benefits.Gate Web3 is an industry-leading multi-chain crypto wallet, providing a one-stop connection to over 100 public chains, millions of assets, and tens of thousands of DApps, unlocking a professional-grade Web3 experience and offering optimal solutions for every Web3 need. BountyDrop is the exclusive earning activity section in the Gate Web3 discovery page, where users can win rewards or participate in lotteries to obtain airdrop tokens by completing simple tasks.