resistance

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin is currently operating above the "active supply cost basis" of $71,300, which represents the average cost of BTC actually circulating in the market and may form significant support.On the other hand, the "capital input cost basis" of $79,800 constitutes resistance, as BTC has previously faced obstacles at this level, with some loss-making positions choosing to exit after approaching breakeven.

Corpay Chief Market Strategist Karl Schamotta stated that the Federal Reserve's decisive interest rate hike received support from all FOMC members and raised interest rate expectations, which will help restore market confidence in the Federal Reserve's determination to combat inflation and eliminate a major obstacle that has suppressed the performance of the dollar.

After the CPI was announced yesterday, Ethereum briefly surged nearly 10%, quickly rising from $2433 to $2667. According to analyst alicharts, this short-term spike was driven by whales, during which the number of Ethereum transactions worth over $1 million increased by nearly 14%.However, alicharts also stated that Ethereum is now approaching a major resistance level. Previously, over 10 million ETH were traded between $2700 and $2800, forming a significant supply barrier. This is the key range that whales must break through for Ethereum to rise to $3000.

The Southeast Asian cryptocurrency industry is expected to double its funding to $680 million by 2026, with Singapore taking the lead.Japan's Metaplanet faces shareholder backlash due to the executive stock incentive plan.

According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Department of Commerce has allocated up to $100 million each to three quantum computing companies: Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantinuum, totaling up to $300 million, to expand hardware, manufacturing, and error correction systems, while simultaneously acquiring minority stakes in the three companies.Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum developers are accelerating the advancement of post-quantum cryptography upgrade plans. The Ethereum Foundation has set December 2029 as the deadline for the base layer quantum resistance upgrade, covering the execution layer, consensus layer, and data layer; although there is no unified timeline for Bitcoin, proposals BIP-360 (post-quantum output types) and BIP-361 (phasing out ECDSA and Schnorr signatures) have been accelerated, with researchers also viewing 2029 as a critical window for completing a trustworthy migration path.

On-chain analysis platform Glassnode released a report stating that Bitcoin has risen 23% over the past 21 trading days, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remained flat during the same period, but are still down 10% year-to-date. The cost basis of long-term holders, the futures liquidation map, and the breakeven point for the U.S. spot ETF all indicate upper resistance between $83,000 and $86,000, with the highest spot price approximately 1.5% below the bottom of that range, followed by a narrow consolidation below $80,000.Approximately 1.07 million Bitcoins were purchased by long-term holders in the $83,000 to $86,000 range, with the heaviest positions close to $85,000, and this block has remained nearly unchanged for the past 30 days. The selling pressure at the high point of the range is calculated at 7 basis points per day based on the selling risk ratio, which is less than half of August's peak of 16 basis points, and the profit realization ratio for long-term holders has dropped from 88% in August to 47%. The breakeven point for the U.S. spot ETF since its launch has been around $86,000, with the paper loss narrowing to approximately $3.9 billion.U.S. core inflation has fallen to a two-year low of 2.5%, with inflation expectations at 3.6%, marking the widest gap in three years; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.8%, near a two-year high. The derivatives liquidation heatmap shows that the short liquidation shelf between $82,000 and $86,000 has increased by 21% since the squeeze on August 19.

According to CoinDesk, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin wallet groups have collectively turned to net selling for the first time since early June. Bitcoin fell below $80,000 after being blocked at the key resistance level of $83,000. The current Glassnode accumulation trend score is 0.37, close to 0, indicating selling, led by whales holding over 1,000 BTC.In the previous three months, almost all groups were actively accumulating, with Bitcoin trading sideways around $60,000. Bitcoin is also facing resistance at approximately $79,687, the 50-week moving average. However, the 50-day moving average may cross above the 200-day moving average as early as Tuesday, forming a golden cross, providing an optimistic signal for bulls, which means Bitcoin may eventually break through the resistance zone.

Glassnode released a report stating that a short squeeze in mid-August drove Bitcoin's rebound, breaking above $80,000 on August 27. However, the price subsequently encountered resistance in the long-term supply zone above and fell back to around $76,000, triggering a series of long liquidations. Currently, there is still a large amount of potential short liquidation positions clustered between $83,000 and $86,000, while the area between $60,000 and $63,000 contains an undigested long liquidation zone, with BTC positioned between the two.On-chain data shows that when Bitcoin traded around $78,000 in May this year, about 65% of the supply was in profit; by the end of August, when it returned to the same price level, that ratio had risen to 68%. The summer redistribution of chips pushed the cost basis of short-term holders to about $71,000, and the same price now would activate more profit-taking chips, increasing potential selling pressure. Considering the overall cost basis and chip distribution, the accumulation support zone is between $62,000 and $65,000, while the concentrated supply zone for long-term holders is between $83,000 and $86,000.The average net inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF during the rebound peaked at $290 million per day over seven days, but the daily trading volume in the secondary market remained around $3 billion, significantly lower than during the previous expansion phase. Meanwhile, the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds briefly fell to 4.6% after the Treasury's repurchase announcement on August 19, but returned to 4.8% in just eight trading days, reaching a new high for this cycle, indicating that sovereign debt pressure is still affecting market valuations. In the options market, short-term optimism has cooled, while long-term options demand remains. The open interest for Deribit and IBIT options expiring on September 25 is about $14 billion, with a large number of positions concentrated above $80,000, which may become important volatility and position anchor points in the coming weeks. Before the supply above $83,000 to $86,000 is digested, BTC will continue to maintain range-bound fluctuations, with $62,000 to $65,000 being the main downward reference area.

StarkWare successfully tested quantum-resistant transactions on the Bitcoin network, marking a further enhancement of Bitcoin's technological defense capabilities against the threat of quantum computing.

Justin Sun stated at the Bitcoin Asia 2026 conference in Hong Kong that the threat of quantum computing to blockchain and the entire financial system is widespread, and traditional banks like JPMorgan are also facing risks.Due to the highly decentralized nature of the Bitcoin community, which involves multiple participants such as miners, exchanges, and WBTC, reaching a consensus on quantum resistance will take a long time. Justin Sun mentioned that TRON has been developing quantum-resistant mechanisms over the past year, and in the first half of this year, they released a quantum-resistant address solution and launched it on the testnet, with plans to upgrade the entire network to a mainstream cryptocurrency network with quantum resistance capabilities by the end of this year.

According to The Block, Glassnode stated that $81,000 to $86,000 is the resistance wall between Bitcoin's current rebound and the January peak. Bitcoin has rebounded 26% since the August low.Glassnode pointed out that this round of Bitcoin's movement is supported by $2.23 billion in ETF inflows, continuous outflows from exchanges, and widespread accumulation among various wallet groups.

According to Glassnode analysis, Bitcoin has rebounded about 26% since the mid-August low, with a net inflow of $2.23 billion into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs during the same period, marking the strongest seven-day inflow of the year, with no single day of outflows. The amount of Bitcoin on exchanges has decreased, while various wallet sizes have simultaneously accumulated. The upcoming supply is concentrated in the $81,000 to $86,000 range, which overlaps with hotspot costs, re-listed sell orders, market maker gamma flips, and short liquidations.Glassnode states that this round of increases was ignited by the record short squeeze on August 19, with 85% of liquidations within the squeeze window being shorts, representing the largest single-day short liquidation since 2019 according to their statistical criteria. The open interest in futures has decreased by 11% in terms of coins, and the funding rate is close to neutral, indicating that the market is mainly driven by short stop-losses rather than new long leverage chasing the price up. Options pricing suggests that the market may maintain until late September, with attention on approximately $83,300 above and the $70,000 cost area and $62,000 to $65,000 support below.

Bitget Research Institute Chief Analyst Ryan Lee stated that driven by multiple favorable factors such as the continuous net inflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF for five days, large-scale short liquidations, the U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases leading to a drop in yields and a weakening dollar, as well as signals from the Trump administration indicating a pro-crypto regulatory stance, Bitcoin has broken through the $80,000 mark, reaching a new high in recent months, with market sentiment rapidly shifting from "fear" to "greed."He pointed out that BTC is expected to stabilize above $78,000 in the short term and oscillate around that area, with key support levels in the $74,000--$76,000 range and primary resistance at $83,000. If it breaks through effectively, it may further challenge the $85,000--$90,000 levels.Regarding Ethereum, benefiting from the market's increased risk appetite driven by BTC, simultaneous ETF fund inflows, and a rebound in DeFi activity, Ryan noted that ETH's short-term average price could reach $2,600--$2,800. If it breaks through the $2,650--$2,700 resistance level, it may further push towards the $3,000 mark.At the same time, Ryan also reminded investors that although ETF fund inflows are strong and short-term momentum is sufficient, there are still profit-taking pressures in the market, as well as macro policy uncertainties such as the Jackson Hole meeting and the September interest rate meeting. Traders should be prepared for fluctuations of 10--20% and closely monitor daily ETF flow data and key support levels.

Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital released a technical chart analysis of Bitcoin, indicating that Bitcoin is facing resistance from a macro downtrend line, which is fitted with the 21-month EMA moving average.Rekt Capital believes that if Bitcoin is blocked in this fitted resistance area, it may find support at the 50-month EMA moving average (purple). Overall, Bitcoin needs to convert these two macro EMAs back into new support levels and break through the macro downtrend line to confirm a new bull market.Rekt Capital is a senior cryptocurrency technical analyst with 560,000 followers on the X platform.

Crypto analyst TedPillows posted that ETH is approaching the resistance area of $2450. He indicated that if the weekly close stands above this resistance area, the price of Ethereum may rise to $3000.

Crypto analyst Ali Charts posted on the X platform that Bitcoin has established strong support in the range of $61,849 to $63,111, where over 2 million BTC have changed hands previously. UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data indicates that there is almost no resistance ahead; if it breaks through $75,733, the next major supply zone will appear in the range of $83,307 to $84,569, where approximately 1 million BTC have changed hands previously.

"BTC OG insider whale" agent Garrett Jin analyzed that Bitcoin's recent breakthrough of $70,000 was driven by multiple positive factors, including the expansion of the U.S. Treasury's bond buyback, the SEC's proposed regulatory framework for crypto assets, and the White House crypto summit. The current price has entered a dense area of trapped positions between the latter half of $60,000 and the lower range of $80,000, with the first resistance level showing signs of loosening.Garrett Jin pointed out that over the past two months, a large amount of new holding costs has accumulated in the area just above $60,000, providing bottom support for this breakthrough. Although the short squeeze triggered by short liquidations may push Bitcoin above $80,000 in the short term, the $80,000 to $82,500 range is a key resistance area to watch, and the short squeeze momentum is difficult to sustain in the long term. If effective absorption of chips can occur below $80,000 before the breakthrough, it would be more beneficial for the healthy development of subsequent trends.On the same day, SK Hynix announced the largest stock buyback and cancellation plan in South Korea's history, committing to return at least 50% of the expected free cash flow before 2027 to shareholders. The stock price surged more than 10% at one point, triggering the buyer's circuit breaker mechanism for the KOSPI index. Analysts believe this move can alleviate market concerns about the declining risk appetite for South Korean semiconductor stocks, but it cannot change the cyclical trend of the memory industry itself.