resistance

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua stated that the pressure level for Bitcoin remains around $67,500, and only a strong breakthrough can initiate a sustained rebound. Regardless, I maintain the previous viewpoint of gradually bottom-fishing in July and August, then waiting for a new bull market cycle. Analyzing the market in a volatile range and assessing bottom prices in the bottom range are not very meaningful.In AI US stocks, we analyzed the computing power company AGPU in our research report. They announced a new contract worth $1.5 billion last night, bringing the total contracts to over $3 billion, with the potential to complete $10 billion in total contracts this year. The key point is that AGPU's financing method is not through ATM equity, ensuring the interests of investors. These contracts will soon reflect in the upcoming financial reports.

Nine financial institutions and Bitcoin companies announced the joint establishment of the Bitcoin Security Alliance, with founding members including Anchorage Digital, ARK Invest, BlackRock, Block, Blockstream, Coinbase, Fidelity, Galaxy, and Strategy, covering the entire chain of institutions such as custody, trading, infrastructure, payments, and asset management.The alliance commits to providing a total of $15 million in funding over the next three years to support developers and researchers in the field of Bitcoin security, including long-term work to prepare Bitcoin for the future era of quantum computing. Each member independently decides which developers, researchers, or organizations to direct their funding towards. The daily operations of the alliance are coordinated on a voluntary basis by Brink Executive Director Mike Schmidt, with Brink being a nonprofit organization that funds Bitcoin open-source developers.The alliance clearly states that it does not formulate or direct Bitcoin protocols, does not express opinions on specific protocol changes, and does not represent Bitcoin or its developers—Bitcoin development continues to be carried out by a globally decentralized community of contributors. Its positioning is to emulate the model of industry organizations that have long supported open-source software, providing resources and attention to developers without controlling the underlying work.Strategy CEO Phong Le stated, "As long-term holders, ensuring the security of Bitcoin for generations is our greatest incentive"; BlackRock's Global Head of Digital Assets Robert Mitchnick pointed out that the work of Bitcoin core developers is "extremely important," and this commitment will provide "significant additional funding" for Bitcoin's long-term security needs. The alliance will also serve as a reliable source of information for investors, the public, and the media in the field of Bitcoin security, with plans to publish and continuously update materials related to Bitcoin security in the coming months.

According to Decrypt, Galaxy Digital has officially launched the "Bitcoin Quantum Readiness Program," which has three core pillars: providing up to $5 million in post-quantum cryptography research grants to developers, publishing special research reports through Galaxy Research, and establishing a quantum advisory committee composed of scholars from several top universities.The program aims at "Q-Day"—the critical moment when quantum computers use Shor's algorithm to break Bitcoin's elliptic curve encryption, forge signatures, and steal wallet assets. Project Eleven predicts that quantum computers capable of cryptographic threats may appear as early as 2030, at which point approximately 6.9 million BTC will be at risk of exposure.The Coinbase Quantum Advisory Committee has also called for developers to immediately begin migration efforts. Meanwhile, Trump has signed an executive order setting the deadline for the U.S. federal government to complete its post-quantum cryptography migration by December 2031.

Bitcoin broke through the resistance level of $64,000 on Tuesday, reaching an intraday high of $65,511, and then reported at $64,858, down 0.18% for the day. The chart shows that the downward trend channel for Bitcoin since it approached the high of $82,000 in May has not completely failed.Technical indicators show that the 50-day moving average of Bitcoin is below the 200-day moving average, forming what traders call a "death cross." The ADX is at 23.4, indicating that the strength of the bearish trend is weakening; the RSI is at 55.7, in a neutral to slightly bullish range. Market prediction platform Myriad traders give a 66.6% probability that Bitcoin will first drop to $55,000; the probability of it rising to $84,000 first is 33.4%. This probability has not changed significantly with recent price fluctuations.

Wintermute released a market analysis stating that under multiple geopolitical shocks such as the U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin has still maintained the critical support level of $62,000, showing strong resilience in the market.Last week, as U.S.-Iran negotiations were paused due to related issues, Iran attacked commercial vessels, and the U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes. Tehran announced the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil seeing a weekly increase of 6.3%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rising to 4.57%. The market has readjusted the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to about 61%, and the U.S. CPI data to be released this week will be a key indicator affecting expectations for the July FOMC meeting.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has maintained a stable trend despite facing consecutive geopolitical risk events, holding the $62,000 area after a minimum pullback and gradually rising to around $64,000. Ethereum performed even stronger, with prices nearing $1,805.Meanwhile, the eight-week trend of ETF fund outflows has finally ended, with Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products recording a total inflow of about $282 million last week. Although the weekly inflow is still insufficient to confirm a trend reversal, combined with the recent continuous accumulation by whales and the market's weakened reaction to negative news, marginal selling pressure is easing, and the market may be forming a phase bottom.Additionally, the market's reaction to Strategy selling Bitcoin has been muted, contrasting sharply with two months ago when the sale of just 32 BTC triggered a sell-off, indicating that investor concerns about potential selling pressure have significantly decreased.Currently, Bitcoin has shown a "not falling on bad news" bottoming characteristic, but the market still needs to wait for further confirmation. Key factors going forward include the performance of U.S. CPI, whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, and the developments in the Strait of Hormuz situation. If inflation data cools, fund flows continue to improve, and progress is made on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the key resistance level of $67,250; conversely, if oil prices continue to rise and macro pressures intensify, the $60,000 support may face another test.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that since July 7, the Bitcoin futures market has been continuously dominated by sellers. The cumulative volume delta (CVD) shrank nearly 70% from +800 million dollars to +230 million dollars within two days, while the price fell from about 64,000 dollars to 62,000 dollars during the same period. On July 8, there was a brief buying pulse, recording +22 million and +48 million dollars in buying over two consecutive hours, but the price remained almost unchanged around 62,100 dollars, only to be completely erased by a selling wave of 92.7 million dollars within a single hour.The analyst pointed out that the positive CVD still indicates that buyers have an accumulation advantage since the beginning of the month, but the speed of contraction and the simultaneous price decline suggest that momentum has shifted to sellers. This is not a panic washout, but rather a continuous shift in capital flow. If the CVD falls below the zero axis, it would mean that sellers not only dominate the current capital flow but have also completely erased the buyers' accumulation advantage, confirming a more sustained bearish pattern. The current 62,000 dollar area has become a resistance level rather than a demand support zone.

According to crypto analyst alicharts, Ethereum is currently testing resistance at the 0.8 MVRV pricing level of $1796. If the daily closing price is above this level and successfully holds it as support, it will strengthen the bullish case and may open the move towards Ethereum's target price of $2245.alicharts further pointed out that breaking above both $1796 and $1816 will trigger a bullish breakout. From a technical perspective, such a move will also increase the probability of ETH breaking through the channel top at $1844 and starting the march towards the target price of $2245.

Economist and gold supporter Peter Schiff posted on the X platform, stating that the market generally believes it is "almost impossible" for Bitcoin to drop to $20,000, but this judgment lacks basis.Bitcoin fell below the $20,000 level about 3.5 years ago, which is not too long ago, so the possibility of returning to that price range cannot be ruled out. Significant pullbacks in assets over a short period are not uncommon in financial markets.

Crypto KOL Ansem posted that Bitcoin is currently at a quite critical position, re-testing the key weekly resistance level of approximately $65,000 to $66,000 within this round of range. He will not go long on BTC at this position, as he believes there are better long opportunities in the market. However, if BTC closes above this range, it may re-test $72,000, which he leans towards as the scenario. If he is wrong and BTC drops below $63,800 and shows weak performance, the short-term trend will turn bearish, potentially re-testing $60,000. If this situation occurs, he will consider going short and set the stop loss above the previous short-term consolidation range. In addition, Ansem stated that the FOMC minutes released today at 2:30 may affect market direction.

The advisory committee of cryptographic experts led by Coinbase has released a report stating that Bitcoin should immediately begin preparing for potential quantum computing attacks. However, the committee did not take a clear stance on whether to freeze the millions of Bitcoins that could potentially be stolen by quantum computing in the future.It is reported that the committee members include several leading experts, such as Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake, who believe that the current focus of the debate is not on how to introduce quantum-resistant signature technology, but rather on how to handle the Bitcoins that have not been migrated for a long time. One viewpoint calls for setting a deadline, after which the existing ECDSA and Schnorr signature schemes for Bitcoin will cease to be supported, and un-migrated assets will be frozen to prevent future quantum attackers from acquiring large amounts of BTC and impacting the market. Another viewpoint argues that this amounts to asset confiscation, contradicting Bitcoin's core principles of "immutability and user complete control of assets," and could set a precedent for freezing assets in the future due to regulatory pressure.The Coinbase advisory committee pointed out that the aforementioned proposals are not mutually exclusive and can be combined, but it refused to take a position on the issue of "whether to freeze legacy BTC," believing that the final decision should be governed by the Bitcoin community. At the same time, it emphasized two points: first, the technical development of quantum-resistant signature migration should be initiated immediately and should not wait for the governance debate to conclude; second, it is necessary to clearly communicate risk information to users to avoid long-term uncertainty affecting the Bitcoin ecosystem.

According to Decrypt, the Coinbase Quantum Advisory Board released a report calling for blockchain developers to immediately begin preparations for quantum migration, warning that unresolved issues with abandoned and vulnerable tokens could become one of the biggest challenges for Bitcoin.The report estimates that approximately 7 million Bitcoins are vulnerable to future quantum attacks due to public key exposure and address reuse. Although there are currently no quantum computers capable of breaking blockchain encryption, the likelihood of relevant quantum computers emerging as early as 2030 is high.The report proposes three handling options for tokens that have not migrated to quantum-safe addresses: permanently freeze or destroy them after a set deadline; take no action and let users decide; or adopt a compromise measure, such as limiting the number of vulnerable tokens that can be moved per block, or allowing users to pre-commit to migration.The Ethereum Foundation has formed a team to coordinate the post-quantum security transition, and Vitalik Buterin developed a quantum upgrade roadmap in February. The Stellar Development Foundation announced a roadmap for user migration to quantum-safe encryption on Tuesday.

According to CoinDesk, Bitfinex's Bitcoin leveraged long positions have risen to 80,636 BTC, the highest level since December 2023. Although BTC has fallen about 13% this year, with the current price around $77,000, Bitfinex longs have still increased by about 10% since the beginning of the year, indicating that leveraged funds continue to accumulate during price corrections.The article states that over the past five years, so-called "Bitfinex whales" have often increased their positions during market weakness and emotional capitulation, and reduced their positions before local tops and trend reversals. Currently, BTC is testing resistance around the True Market Mean and the cost basis of short-term holders at approximately $78,000, with its 200-day moving average above $81,000, forming a key technical range that bulls need to break through.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on the X platform that Bitcoin was rejected again at $82,000, marking the third failure at this level. The short-term holder SOPR indicator has still not managed to stay above 1, indicating that short-term holders continue to sell during each rebound. Currently, crude oil is close to $106, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped by 537 points, and interest rates face the risk of remaining high for a long time.

According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant pointed out in a report that Bitcoin faces a risk of correction after reaching the 200-day moving average of $82,400. The agency stated that the 200-day moving average was a major resistance level during the 2022 bear market, and Bitcoin resumed its downward trend after hitting that level in March of that year.The report noted that traders' unrealized profit margin reached 17.7% on May 5, the highest level since June of last year, indicating potential selling pressure from profit-taking. Last week, daily realized profits surged to the highest level since early December, with traders cashing out 14,600 Bitcoins (worth nearly $1.2 billion) on May 4. CryptoQuant stated that such a peak magnitude often signals a local price top during a bear market rebound.If Bitcoin declines, the current support level is around $70,000, which is the average price of all Bitcoin's last trades and has historically been a key resistance turning into support during bear markets.

According to QCP Capital analysis, BTC is currently consolidating around $82,000, close to the 200-day moving average, with $80,000 support holding steady, but the $84,000 resistance above has not yet been broken. The core CPI for April year-on-year is 2.8%, slightly above expectations, mainly driven by housing costs (owner's equivalent rent), while core goods inflation remains sluggish, and the transmission of tariffs has not yet fully spread.Core services (excluding housing) inflation has accelerated for three consecutive months, combined with China's PPI turning positive for the first time in 41 months, the global commodity deflation dividend may be fading, and the threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has been raised further. The market is currently focused on three major catalysts: the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing (involving trade, rare earths, and Middle East issues), the release of PPI data, and the Senate Banking Committee's review process of the CLARITY cryptocurrency regulatory bill. Before these catalysts materialize, spot prices may continue to fluctuate within a range, with volatility remaining low.

According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market has temporarily stalled before the release of the U.S. April CPI data. Bitcoin has recently been oscillating in the range of $80,000 to $82,000, failing to effectively break through since last Wednesday.The market believes that although capital flows still indicate a potential for a subsequent breakthrough, inflation and macro risks are suppressing risk appetite. The U.S. will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. FactSet data shows that the market expects the April CPI to rise year-on-year to 3.7%, up from 3.3% in March. If the forecast is realized, it will mark the largest increase since January 2024 and is significantly higher than the average of 2.7% over the past 12 months. The core CPI is expected to rise year-on-year to 2.7%, up from the previous value of 2.6%.Analysts are concerned that if the inflation data exceeds expectations against the backdrop of high oil prices and Trump's statement that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is "extremely fragile," it may further trigger market risk aversion, dragging down the performance of risk assets.Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at FXTM, stated that the current market is entering a sensitive phase where geopolitical issues, inflation risks, and central bank expectations are intertwined. High oil prices, uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran, and key U.S. economic data may lead to increased volatility in commodities, exchange rates, and global stock markets.In addition to macro factors, XRP and SOL are also approaching key supply zones again. XRP tested $1.50 today but has failed to break through this level multiple times since February of this year; SOL is once again nearing the resistance level around $97.Meanwhile, institutional interest in related assets is heating up. The U.S. spot XRP ETF recorded a net inflow of $25.8 million on Monday, reaching a new high since January 5; Bitcoin and Solana ETFs also maintained net inflows, while the Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of $16.9 million.

Glassnode's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has broken through the real market average ($78,200) and the cost price for short-term holders ($79,100). If it can maintain this range for the next week, the "deep value phase" since 2026 may become the shortest in Bitcoin's history.The next key resistance level in the current market is around $85,200. On-chain data shows that the 30-day net realized profit and loss average has turned positive to 0.003% of the market cap, and long-term holders have realized profits rising to $180 million daily, but this is still significantly lower than the over $1 billion level during the peak of this cycle.However, the market has realized losses still amounting to $479 million daily, which is 140% higher than the stable range of this cycle. Glassnode believes that it needs to continuously fall below $200 million to confirm a healthier demand recovery.In terms of capital, the 30-day net inflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has turned positive again, indicating that institutional demand is recovering. At the same time, the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative during the upward process, suggesting that market short positions are still heavy. If shorts continue to be squeezed, it may further drive prices up.Additionally, there is a concentration of about $2 billion in "Short Gamma" positions around $82,000, and market makers' hedging behavior may amplify price volatility. Glassnode believes that the overall trend for Bitcoin remains strong, but the market has entered a more sensitive phase. If there is a lack of sustained spot buying support, there may be significant selling pressure around $85,000.

According to Cointelegraph, on-chain indicators such as the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) show that the BTC price still has room to rise, with the next key target at $92,000. This rebound has pushed Bitcoin above its short-term holder cost basis, which is currently at $79,000. The short-term holder cost basis refers to the average purchase price of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days.Historically, breaking through this level has pushed the market into an extended recovery phase, incentivizing investors to hold or even increase their positions to maximize returns. This shift is often a catalyst that ignites a macro uptrend, attracting new buyers and triggering short squeezes, while shorts remain in a state of disbelief.Charts show that when the price recovers its realized price in April 2025, it rises 30% within weeks, heading towards the upper boundary of the indicator at $112,000. Similar situations in October 2024, October 2023, and January 2023 also pushed BTC prices to the same on-chain level. If BTC breaks this line, there is a high probability it will rise to $92,423 in the short term

According to FinanceFeeds, analysts pointed out that Ethereum (ETH) has recently rebounded from the support level of $2200, which coincides with the resistance level before the end of March, the lower band of the daily Bollinger Bands, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward impulse wave i. The current price is approaching the key resistance level of $2470 (which is the endpoint of the previous upward impulse wave i).The report noted that, given the active wave (iii) and the strong momentum of wave 3, as well as the overall bullish sentiment in the crypto market, if ETH breaks through the $2470 resistance level, it is expected to rise to the next resistance level of $2600.

Crypto analyst Murphy stated that BTC is filling the gap left in its chip structure since 2024, with the recent chip concentration zone located around $78,000, where approximately 423,000 BTC have changed hands, indicating significant capital entering to form support.He pointed out that the trading volume in the $79,000 to $80,000 range has noticeably decreased, possibly due to proximity to integer levels and resistance, with some capital choosing to wait and see. There remains an unfilled chip gap in the $81,000 to $82,000 range, and it is expected that the price will oscillate and consolidate in this range before challenging higher areas once the chips have fully changed hands.Murphy emphasized that the chip concentration in the $83,000 to $84,000 range mainly stems from Coinbase organizing wallets and does not constitute real resistance. If BTC stabilizes above $82,000, the real pressure above will come from the chip concentration zone above $87,000.