retrace

On-chain analyst Willy Woo stated that while the stock market continues to hit new highs, Bitcoin has retraced by 50%. Therefore, it should have strong resilience against potential pullbacks in the stock market.He further pointed out that the last time a similar pattern occurred was after the 2014 Mt. Gox incident crash, when the U.S. stock market continued to rise, while Bitcoin gradually moved upwards slowly, and the stock market fell into a bear market. It wasn't until later that the stock market returned to a bull market, and Bitcoin welcomed the major bull market of 2017.

Analyst Murphy posted on platform X, stating that as of October 15, 2026, Bitcoin has fallen to around $81,000 on October 9, 12, and 15, repeatedly testing the same support area. The latest round of declines, combined with U.S. inflation exceeding expectations, rising market concerns about the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy further, and weakening U.S. stocks, has put overall pressure on risk assets.Murphy noted that from the on-chain adjusted realized loss data, the scale of losses corresponding to the three dips shows a decreasing trend: the loss on October 12 was less than that on October 9, and while the loss on October 15 was larger than on October 12, it was still lower than on October 9. October 9 appears to be a peak where short-term price-sensitive chips concentrated their exit; during the second dip, market sentiment was more cautious, and the willingness to sell was not strong; the third decline, under macroeconomic negative influences, again forced some swing chips to stop-loss and exit. Therefore, the current market is closer to a gradual clearing of swing chips rather than a full-blown panic sell-off. If the proportion of short-term holders' losses remains around 31%, below the historical cumulative average of 42.7%, it indicates that the clearing of chips may not be sufficient, and further volatility and selling pressure may still occur. Next, it should be observed whether the scale of realized losses continues to converge: if the price maintains near the current support area and the release of losses gradually weakens, it indicates that passive selling is decreasing, and a phase adjustment may be nearing its end; if the scale of losses expands significantly again, it indicates that the market still needs to undergo a more thorough turnover of chips.

Whale "Set 10 Major Goals First" (@jasonleo) shared a post late at night stating that the most noteworthy aspect of this round of BTC correction is not the decline itself, but "why it only dropped this much." He pointed out that recently the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 5.7%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was about 5.3%. Market expectations for another interest rate hike within the year are rising, while oil prices and inflation pressures are resurfacing, with multiple macroeconomic headwinds overlapping. However, BTC has only corrected about 5% so far.jasonleo believes that the price's reaction to news is itself important information. In the past, when a single macroeconomic headwind appeared, BTC could experience a decline of over 10%. Yet this time, under the pressure of multiple headwinds, the price has not shown significant damage, which indicates that the current upward trend has a certain resilience. He compared the current trend to BTC's previous bottom around $58,000, believing that both exhibit the characteristic of "weakened selling pressure after sufficient release of bad news," but the current market remains in a strong trend. He stated that he does not currently believe BTC will directly drop to $78,000 or even $74,000, and will observe $79,000 as a position to reduce holdings: if BTC falls below $79,000, he will begin to reduce holdings; if the daily close falls below $78,000, he will exit all remaining long positions and wait for the next entry opportunity; if the key position is not broken, he will continue to hold long positions.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned to above 5.2% overnight, reaching a high not seen since 2007, putting pressure on global risk assets. Bitcoin has fallen back to around $83,000, with altcoins experiencing even larger declines. In this regard, Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that this drop is more akin to a normal pullback after a rebound and does not constitute the starting point of a trend reversal. The high U.S. Treasury yields mainly suppress valuations, with limited impact on the overall liquidity. The funding structure and holding costs of the crypto market itself have also not been disrupted. This round of decline seems more like a clearing of positions before key data is released.It is important to be cautious about the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins. During a phase of marginal liquidity tightening, funds tend to concentrate on the most certain top assets; altcoins lack incremental funds to support them, and with heavier leverage, their pullbacks are therefore amplified. This divergence is likely to continue before the release of this week's PCE and non-farm data. If the data falls short of expectations, altcoins will have greater elasticity and thus higher risks; if the data exceeds expectations, Bitcoin's relative strength will be more pronounced. Whether Bitcoin can stabilize at key support levels will be the main signal to determine if this round of pullback has ended.Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

Renowned trader Killa updated his views on the recent rapid surge of Bitcoin, stating that the next target for Bitcoin could reach the $88,000 range; however, if it quickly falls below $80,000, it may test the low of $70,000. Based on volume analysis, this scenario is currently unlikely.Killa, a quantitative trader focused on BTC, predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and switched to long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

According to SoSoValue data, after a significant rebound, the overall cryptocurrency market is experiencing a general pullback, with only the Layer2 sector remaining relatively strong, rising 1.13% in 24 hours, among which Stacks (STX) increased by 16.73% and Polygon (POL) rose by 6.29%. In addition, Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.10%, dropping below $79,000; Ethereum (ETH) decreased by 1.61%, falling below $2,500.In other sectors, the DeFi sector dropped 0.38% in 24 hours, with Ethena (ENA) down 7.78%, but Hyperliquid (HYPE) rose by 1.89%; the CeFi sector fell by 1.65%, with OKB (OKB) down 3.12%; the Layer1 sector declined by 2.39%, with Zcash (ZEC) down 6.44%; the Meme sector decreased by 3.42%, while SPX6900 (SPX) rose against the trend by 13.33%; the PayFi sector fell by 3.99%, with Dash (DASH) down 10.10%.

According to Gate market data, as Bitcoin fell below $77,000, the crypto market experienced a pullback, with altcoins generally under pressure and declining. Among them:TAC is currently priced at $0.001672, down 40.86% in 24 hours;FHE is currently priced at $0.01978, down 30.03% in 24 hours;SQD is currently priced at $0.03, down 29.01% in 24 hours;PTB is currently priced at $0.0007364, down 27.11% in 24 hours;INX is currently priced at $0.006619, down 26.43% in 24 hours;BASED is currently priced at $0.07328, down 25.35% in 24 hours;SWARMS is currently priced at $0.007254, down 24.80% in 24 hours;BEAT is currently priced at $0.1342, down 24.18% in 24 hours.

The South Korean stock market fell sharply on Monday, with major chip stocks experiencing profit-taking after last Friday's record surge, while investors also reduced leveraged trading. Analysts indicated that this round of adjustment was mainly due to profit-taking after the previous surge and the exit of leveraged funds. In addition, the strengthening of the Korean won and news related to advancements in AI and semiconductor technology in China also increased market pressure.Data shows that last Friday, the South Korean stock market recorded its largest single-day gain, with the KOSPI rising by 18%, and the large foreign purchases were believed to be related to short covering. However, in early trading on Monday, global investors shifted to selling, with foreign investors selling more than 1 trillion won (approximately 698 million USD) in the South Korean stock market.

According to a report by 10x Research, Bitcoin mining stocks have largely decoupled from Bitcoin price trends and have experienced a pullback of about 20%.The report states that Bitcoin mining companies are currently deeply tied to the AI theme, which is more focused on global supply chains and competition rather than crypto adoption or financial digitization. Additionally, the performance of Chinese LLM concept stocks and the outlook for the South Korean semiconductor supply chain are directly impacting the trends of Bitcoin mining stocks.Data from the image shows that the stock price trend of RIOT has become more synchronized with the Semi SOX ETF since April 2026, with both recently retreating from their highs, indicating that the performance of Bitcoin mining stocks is being influenced by the sentiment in the semiconductor and AI computing power chain.

According to analyst Darkfost's data, Bitcoin has retraced and fallen below the 4% percentile of the Power Law model, entering an extremely undervalued range, a valuation level that has historically been present only 4% of the time. Darkfost emphasizes that this is a suitable time for long-term position building, not a short-term price prediction.

According to SoSoValue data, the cryptocurrency market sector generally declined, with the PayFi sector dropping 4.15% in 24 hours, XRP down 3.26%, Stellar (XLM) down 11.45%, but Ultima (ULTIMA) rose against the trend by 2.79%. At the same time, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 3.6%, dropping below $71,000; Ethereum (ETH) decreased by 0.92%, falling below $2,000. However, the SocialFi sector rose against the market, increasing by 7.03% in 24 hours, with Toncoin (TON) up 4.18% and Chiliz (CHZ) up 5.71%.The AI sector rose by 3.13%, with Worldcoin (WLD) increasing by 18.53%; the DeFi sector rose by 2.98%, with Hyperliquid (HYPE) up 1.76% and LAB (LAB) up 64.79%; the Meme sector rose by 1.09%, with Siren (SIREN) up 15.38%. In other sectors, the Layer1 sector fell by 1.09%, with NEAR Protocol (NEAR) surging 14.22% during the day; the CeFi sector declined by 1.47%, with Binance Coin (BNB) down 1.94%; the Layer2 sector decreased by 2.31%, while Optimism (OP) remained relatively strong, rising by 2.88%.The cryptocurrency sector index reflecting historical market trends shows that the ssiSocialFi, ssiAI, and ssiMeme indices rose by 7.22%, 1.87%, and 1.31%, respectively.

According to Jinshi reports, the US Dollar Index DXY has basically retraced all gains since February 27. The dollar was already weak before the outbreak of the war in Iran, affected by policy burdens, including Trump's trade war and threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve. Although investors had previously unwound their short positions on the dollar after the outbreak of the war, the gains have now disappeared, partly due to optimistic market expectations that the US and Iran may resume negotiations. Jane Foley from Rabobank stated that the divergence in global central bank policies is also an important factor.

According to Gate's market data, gold (XAUUSDT) has fallen below $4,600, currently priced at $4,596.86, with a 24h decline of about 1.66%; silver (XAGUSDT) has fallen below $74, currently priced at $73.77, with a 24h decline of 0.74%. Against the backdrop of gold and silver corrections, overall trading activity has not decreased but rather increased.According to CoinGlass data, the 24-hour contract trading volume for gold (XAU) on the Gate platform reached $230 million, an increase of 122.30%, ranking among the top globally; the 24-hour contract trading volume for silver (XAG) was approximately $315 million, an increase of 213.96%, with an open interest of about $21.5244 million, both ranking among the top two globally.Gate has pioneered the metal contract trading sector, providing 24/7 uninterrupted trading, offering users greater strategic flexibility and asset management efficiency in volatile markets. Gate's contracts cover a variety of traditional financial assets including stocks, metals, foreign exchange, indices, and commodities, supporting trading in core assets such as gold, silver, and globally popular stocks. Gate continues to build a more efficient and professional multi-asset one-stop trading platform for global users.

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, the price of HYPE fell in the afternoon, briefly touching the $40 mark. The trader "Loracle" on Hyperliquid, holding a 5x leveraged short position in HYPE, was subsequently liquidated, with the current position size reaching $23.8 million and an average entry price of $40.871, making it the largest short address for HYPE on-chain.It is reported that this address is one of the early contributors to the Hyperliquid ecosystem and is the founder of Hypurrfun. Previously, during the main upward wave starting from $20, this address had heavily gone long and at one point became the second-largest long position for HYPE on-chain, but has now flipped to short on April 20. Address: 0x8def9f50456c6c4e37fa5d3d57f108ed23992dae.

According to SoSoValue data, the cryptocurrency market sector generally retreated, with the Meme sector dropping 3.45% in 24 hours. Within the sector, SPX6900 (SPX) fell 6.73%, MemeCore (M) decreased by 14.74%, but Pump.fun (PUMP) rose against the trend by 4.14%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 2.51%, falling below $78,000; Ethereum (ETH) dropped 3.71%, falling to around $2,300.Notably, only the NFT sector rose by 2.29%, with Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) increasing by 10.01% and SuperVerse (SUPER) rising by 3.74%.In other sectors, the DeFi sector fell 1.72% in 24 hours, but Jupiter (JUP) rose by 5.35%; the CeFi sector decreased by 1.78%, with Aster (ASTER) dropping by 2.72%; the Layer1 sector fell by 2.31%, with Solana (SOL) decreasing by 2.95%; the PayFi sector dropped by 2.91%, while SafePal (SFP) surged by 2.39% during the day; the Layer2 sector fell by 3.13%, with Starknet (STRK) decreasing by 5.45%.The cryptocurrency sector indices reflecting historical market trends show that the ssiNFT, ssiRWA, and ssiSocialFi indices rose by 4.64%, 19.6%, and 0.04%, respectively.

According to SoSoValue data, influenced by macro factors such as the small-scale skirmish between the U.S. and Iran on Sunday, the overall trend of the cryptocurrency market is downward. Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.11% in 24 hours, dropping to around $74,000, while Ethereum (ETH) decreased by 2.37%, falling below $2,300.However, sectors like SocialFi and AI saw slight increases, with 24-hour gains of 1.92% and 0.95%, respectively. Within the SocialFi sector, Toncoin (TON) and Chiliz (CHZ) rose by 1.49% and 4.60%, respectively. In the AI sector, Pieverse (PIEVERSE) surged by 77.43%, and Venice Token (VVV) increased by 4.89%.In other sectors, the CeFi sector fell by 0.86% in 24 hours, but Bitget Token (BGB) rose by 1.35%; the Layer1 sector decreased by 1.06%, with Canton Network (CC) remaining relatively strong, increasing by 1.64%; the PayFi sector dropped by 1.46%, while Monero (XMR) gained 0.41% during the day; the Meme sector fell by 2.17%, with MemeCore (M) declining by 6.03%; the DeFi sector decreased by 2.24%, but Reserve Rights (RSR) rose against the trend by 10.52%; the Layer2 sector fell by 2.28%, with Arbitrum (ARB) down by 0.39%.The cryptocurrency sector indices reflecting historical market trends show that the ssiMeme, ssiDeFi, and ssiLayer2 indices fell by 3.00%, 2.70%, and 2.63%, respectively.

According to the latest "February 2026 Private Wealth Management Monthly Report" released by Gate, the cryptocurrency market faced overall pressure in February due to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, with BTC experiencing a monthly decline of approximately 15.5%, and ETH also retracing. The market's fear and greed index dropped into the "extreme fear" zone, indicating a significant increase in risk-averse sentiment.Against this backdrop, Gate's private wealth management products maintained overall steady performance, but short-term returns showed some differentiation. Among them, Star Core Smart Investment (USDT) had the highest annual return rate, reaching 9.5%; Starry Hedge (USDT) and Star Orbit Arbitrage (USDT) had cumulative return rates of 18.0% and 17.2%, respectively. During the statistical period, Starry Hedge (USDT) achieved positive returns in all 20 cycles, with a total win rate of 100%; Gravitational Hedge (USDT) also performed outstandingly, with a total win rate of 95%.The report pointed out that recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising shipping risks have heightened market concerns about disruptions in crude oil supply, driving a rebound in WTI oil prices. Looking ahead, the narratives related to AI Agents and TradFi may continue to attract market attention in the next 1-2 months and become important catalysts for capital rotation.

Bitcoin fell back after a strong rise to $70,000 during the U.S. trading session on Wednesday, reporting around $68,600 during the Asian session on Thursday, failing to effectively hold the key integer level. Since the end of February, BTC has maintained a range-bound structure, having dipped to $62,500 earlier this month and reaching $71,100 on February 15.Market participants noted that Bitcoin had previously broken through a similar range in January, but then quickly fell from $98,000 to $60,000, forming lower highs during this downward cycle, which has made some traders cautious about the sustainability of the current breakout. Derivatives data shows that the total open interest (OI) in cryptocurrency futures has increased by over 6.6%, approaching $100 billion, with a growth rate higher than the overall market cap increase, indicating new capital inflow.In the options market, Deribit data shows that the Bitcoin rebound has driven an increase in demand for call options with strike prices between $85,000 and $90,000. However, the overall options structure still leans towards bearish protection, with $60,000 put options being the current most popular position, having a nominal open interest exceeding $1.4 billion, indicating that the market still retains concerns about downside risks.