winter

Wintermute announced that it has completed its first OTC options trade for SpaceX (SPCX).

Wintermute released its weekly market report, stating that as of the week ending June 15, the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, along with CPI data, has boosted market risk appetite. Wintermute believes that the risk-reward ratio for Bitcoin at just over $60,000 is quite attractive; each sell-off eliminates weak holders, leaving a group with higher quality holdings and stronger conviction. However, this does not mean that a bottom has been established. Before the situation truly improves, it is not impossible to fall into the $50,000 range. Currently, the position structure has been somewhat cleared, and net selling pressure has eased. What really needs attention is the flow of funds, rather than prices or news headlines.The real turning point in the last cycle was the continuous growth of inflows into ETFs and stablecoins, and there are currently no signs of this. Therefore, blindly chasing any upward trend is futile. In the short term, Waller's speech on Wednesday is key. If dovish sentiment indicates a softening of core rates and a drop in oil prices, the market will welcome good news; if hawkish sentiment suggests rates rising to 4.2%, the good news will end. Besides that, the agreement signed between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland on Friday is the truly important event.

Wintermute stated in its latest market report that there was a significant rebound in the market last week, driven by two main factors: first, the May CPI data met expectations (year-on-year 4.2%), and there was no unexpected overheating as previously feared by the market; second, the end of the Iran conflict led to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a sharp decline in oil prices.Wintermute believes that since October 2025, Bitcoin has experienced three pullbacks of over 20%, and the current drop from $83,000 to $60,000 is considered a "bear market false breakout." Currently, there has been no structural reversal in the inflows of ETFs, stablecoins, and digital asset treasury (DAT), and liquidity remains a key factor limiting the sustainability of the rebound.The report pointed out that the risk-reward ratio for BTC around $60,000 is attractive, but the bottom has not yet been confirmed, and the possibility of further probing down to the $50,000 range cannot be ruled out.

According to BBX data, last week institutional research qualitatively shifted historically, with Bitcoin reserve companies accelerating deleveraging. The core dynamics are as follows:Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered PLC (LSE: $STAN), released a research report on June 12, officially declaring that "the crypto winter is likely over." He believes that the $59,000 level for Bitcoin has formed the low point of this bear market cycle, marking a significant turning point in market sentiment. Kendrick stated that a large amount of IPO allocation funds will flow back into risk assets after the SpaceX IPO, and the funding flow for Bitcoin spot ETFs is expected to achieve a structural reversal after this adjustment, combined with the continuous expansion of corporate reserve demand, supporting his view with three factors. This is the strongest "bear end" qualitative statement from institutional research so far in 2026— the last similar clear statement came from the same team at Standard Chartered in December 2023, after which Bitcoin confirmed a breakthrough of historical highs in 2024.Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: $NAKA) (Nashville, a Bitcoin operating company, also operating Bitcoin Magazine) disclosed a series of balance sheet optimization measures through an official press release on BusinessWire on June 11: selling approximately 600 BTC and Bitcoin-related derivatives, netting about $48 million, to repay a $45 million loan to Kraken (Payward Interactive); the remaining loan balance is $165 million USDT (down from the original $210 million), restructured under new terms: $60 million USDT maturing on December 4, 2026, and $105 million USDT extended to June 30, 2027; the new interest rate is reduced to 7.75% (previously 8%), requiring the maintenance of 2,000 BTC as collateral in a Bitwise Asset Management custodial account, saving approximately $4 million in annual financing costs; the board also approved a $25 million stock repurchase plan (as of December 31, 2026). After the transaction, the company holds approximately 4,467 BTC (approximately $284 million, estimated at recent prices); the company previously completed a 1-for-40 reverse stock split at the end of May and received confirmation from Nasdaq on June 9 that it has restored compliance with the minimum $1 share price requirement; after the news was announced, $NAKA briefly rose about 20% during trading.

On-chain capital and prediction market infrastructure project Nova Markets announced the completion of a new round of financing, with participation from Wintermute Ventures, Robot Ventures, Big Brain VC, Cumberland, GSR, Greenfield Capital, Hash3, Bodhi Ventures, and Kairos Research.This round of financing will be used to migrate more perpetual contracts and prediction markets on-chain.Nova stated that the actual number of existing on-chain capital markets is far below the expected level, and the financing will be used to migrate more perpetual contracts and prediction markets on-chain, reshaping the generation and trading structure of related markets.

According to Cointelegraph, Wintermute stated that it is expanding its institutional trading business into prediction markets. Wintermute will provide two-way market liquidity for event contracts at major venues to reduce spreads, support larger trades, and improve the reliability of market implied probabilities.Jake Ostrovskis, Head of OTC Trading at Wintermute, stated that prediction markets possess data characteristics of major asset classes, but liquidity is still in the early stages. Continuous two-way liquidity can not only narrow spreads but also support larger trading volumes, thereby improving the signals contained in market prices.

According to The Block, quantitative market maker Wintermute has announced its entry into the prediction market sector, providing two-way quote liquidity services for several mainstream event contract platforms, marking the official expansion of its trading infrastructure into the emerging market at the intersection of crypto and traditional assets.The company stated that it has been continuously providing buy and sell bilateral quotes on multiple "leading platforms," with the total monthly trading volume of these prediction markets exceeding $20 billion this year, indicating that this sector is growing rapidly but still in the early stages of liquidity. Wintermute's annual trading volume exceeds $3.5 trillion, and this expansion further strengthens its cross-asset market-making capabilities.Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at the company, stated that prediction markets have a demand structure similar to traditional major asset classes, but liquidity is still insufficient, requiring continuous bilateral quotes to enhance price discovery efficiency and trading depth. He pointed out that tighter spreads and greater trading capacity will improve the quality of market probability signals.In the industry, institutions such as Jump Trading and Galaxy Digital have also entered this field, with some platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi having a cumulative trading volume exceeding $150 billion. Analysts believe that Wintermute's entry further promotes the integration of prediction markets and crypto infrastructure, especially in terms of stablecoin settlement, on-chain clearing, and risk management systems, as these markets gradually approach a derivatives-level institutional development structure.

Wintermute stated that the macro environment improved significantly last week, with Brent crude oil dropping 9% due to easing tensions in Iran, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling to 4.5%, and U.S. stocks rising for the eighth consecutive week to reach a historic high, alleviating inflationary pressures driven by energy.However, consumer-level concerns have not dissipated, as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell to a historic low of 44.8, and one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI for May reached a four-year high, with input costs rising to their highest level since 2022, indicating a resurgence in commodity inflation.The minutes from the Federal Reserve's April meeting also signaled that "if inflation remains stubborn, further tightening of policy may occur," and the market has not fully priced in the hawkish expectations. In the tech sector, Nvidia reported "explosive" earnings: Q1 revenue reached $81.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 85%, with data center business growth of 92%, and announced a $80 billion buyback and a 25-fold increase in dividends.More critically, its Q2 guidance has already assumed zero revenue from Chinese data centers, indicating stronger actual AI demand. However, the market reacted unusually coldly, with after-hours stock prices barely moving, reflecting that AI trading has entered a "perfect pricing" phase, where simply exceeding expectations is no longer enough to drive the market.This serves as an important warning for risk assets, including the crypto market—if AI momentum weakens, weak consumption, sticky inflation, and a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve will re-dominate market narratives. Compared to the strength of U.S. stocks, the crypto market has clearly lagged. BTC hovers around $76,000, and ETH has fallen to $2,140, neither following the rise of risk assets.In the past two weeks, over $2 billion has flowed out of BTC spot ETFs, with institutional funds noticeably cooling, and marginal risk appetite has shifted back to AI stocks rather than crypto assets. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, hitting a new 10-month low, while the few assets that have remained strong against the trend are HYPE, which saw a single-day ETF inflow record of $25.5 million and signs of large institutional wallets continuously accumulating.The current market structure has not completely deteriorated; long-term holders are still increasing their positions, and trading platform reserves remain low, but the capital flow that determines short-term prices is turning negative. The key support level for BTC is currently between $75,000 and $76,000; if it falls below this range, the market may quickly test the $70,000 to $72,000 area; if it holds, there is still a chance to challenge $80,000 again.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a giant whale deposited 17.566 million ENA (approximately 1.78 million USD) into Wintermute, while that address had previously withdrawn the same batch of ENA from Wintermute and Binance, with a cost of about 5.38 million USD. This operation resulted in a total loss of approximately 3.6 million USD.

The latest market intelligence report released by the digital asset trading firm Wintermute shows that global financial markets are undergoing a large-scale macroeconomic repricing, with the market narrative shifting from discussions about the timing of interest rate cuts to preparing for potential rate hikes. This structural shift has been triggered by unexpectedly strong economic data and reignited inflationary pressures, creating significant headwinds for digital assets.The report notes that Bitcoin saw a sharp decline after briefly breaking through $83,000, giving back significant gains within a week, while mainstream alternative tokens experienced double-digit percentage drops. Global wealth managers are actively de-risking under macro constraints, highlighting the fragility of digital asset expansion. On-chain trading indicators suggest that the previous price increases were not driven by genuine spot market demand or organic retail accumulation, but rather primarily from short squeezes in the perpetual futures market.The total open interest in Bitcoin derivatives rapidly expanded by $10 billion to $58 billion within a month, while the underlying spot trading volume simultaneously fell to a two-year low. When Bitcoin broke through $80,000, a large number of short positions were forcibly liquidated, triggering a brief buying frenzy, but failed to establish a lasting structural bottom.The main driving factor behind the current market reversal is that global CPI data continues to exceed expectations, reigniting widespread concerns about interest rate hikes. At the same time, ongoing uncertainty surrounding the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair has injected unpredictability into the market. Despite long-term positive signals, including a recent net inflow of $623 million into spot ETFs and Bitcoin reserves on trading platforms dropping to a seven-year low, Wintermute emphasizes that these long-term trends are insufficient to alleviate recent structural risks.As international asset managers shift capital towards short-term sovereign debt instruments, digital platforms are struggling to maintain momentum. The near-term outlook for the tokenized market will depend on whether genuine spot buyers return to stabilize the weak liquidity gap.

According to The Block, crypto market maker Wintermute has launched the DeFi vault curation platform Armitage, designed for non-custodial vaults catering to different risk appetites, to access decentralized lending opportunities. Wintermute stated that, relying on its market-making business and clearing execution capabilities, Armitage can accept "collateral types that other curators cannot support." The announcement mentioned that user deposits do not require KYC, and users retain control over their funds. As institutions continue to engage in vault strategies like Morpho on Ethereum and Kamino on Solana, vaults are becoming an important tool for institutional participation in the crypto market.

Wintermute released a market outlook indicating that the cryptocurrency market has come under significant pressure this week due to the resurgence of inflation in the U.S. and a reversal in interest rate expectations. Bitcoin failed to break through the 200-day moving average when it first encountered a major macro shock, showing that the previous rally was driven more by short covering rather than sustained inflows of new capital.The market environment has clearly changed, with U.S. CPI growth accelerating, core inflation exceeding expectations, and real wages turning negative. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to 4.58%, while a new Fed chair with a more hawkish stance will take office in three weeks. The market's pricing of the Fed's policy path has also changed rapidly, shifting from betting on rate cuts to concerns about further rate hikes within just five trading days.Cross-asset performance also reflects this change: Brent crude oil rose 8.6% this week, while Bitcoin and Ethereum fell 5.7% and 10.2%, respectively. Capital is flowing into assets that drive inflation, while cryptocurrencies have performed even weaker than the stock market during the downturn, a relative weakness that is considered a cause for concern.Despite the long-term structural positives still in place, including Bitcoin reserves on exchanges remaining at multi-year lows, long-term holders continuing to accumulate, and the advancement of the U.S. crypto regulatory bill "CLARITY," institutional capital is more inclined to take profits on rebounds in the short term rather than continue to increase positions. The market is currently focused on the $76,000 to $78,000 range for Bitcoin; if it can hold this position after Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday, market confidence may recover. However, if it falls below $75,000, along with a decline in funding rates and continued outflows from ETFs, it could quickly drop to the $70,000 range.

According to a report by Cryptopolitan, a market report released by Wintermute indicates that Bitcoin's breakthrough of $80,000 is primarily driven by a short squeeze in the perpetual futures market, rather than by spot demand. Over the past month, Bitcoin futures open interest has increased by about $10 billion to $58 billion, while spot trading volume has dropped to a two-year low. When Bitcoin surpassed $70,000, a large number of shorts were forced to close their positions, triggering a buying spree that pushed prices higher. Wintermute warns that the rally, lacking support from spot demand, is fragile, and the market may face a sharp reversal.In the long term, recent net inflows into spot ETFs have reached $623 million, and the exchange's Bitcoin inventory has fallen to a seven-year low, but these factors are not enough to offset short-term risks. The U.S. CPI data being higher than expected and the uncertainty surrounding the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair may also exacerbate market pressures. Wintermute states that $85,000 is still a possibility, but the risk-reward ratio for buying at the current price level is poor.

Wintermute released a weekly market summary stating that the U.S. stock market continued its strong performance, recording a sixth consecutive week of gains, with the Nasdaq index rising 4.5% and the S&P 500 index rising 2.3%, both reaching all-time highs, while small-cap stocks and tech giants strengthened simultaneously. Non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.3%, showcasing a resilient labor market. Despite the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz, the market viewed it as noise, and the war premium has significantly receded. Iran-U.S. negotiations have returned to square one, with Iran's demands for sovereignty, compensation, and sanctions relief being directly rejected by Trump. This week's CPI data will test the transmission of energy prices to inflation, and with Powell's term ending and Waller taking over, the Fed's June FOMC dot plot will be closely watched.In terms of crypto assets, Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 mark, reaching a peak of around $83,000, marking its first time above the 200-day moving average (for the first time in seven months), but this rise was clearly driven by leverage: open interest surged by $10 billion in one month, while spot trading volume hit a two-year low, indicating a typical short squeeze rather than a healthy breakout. Institutional funding remains supportive, with ETF net inflows of $623 million and trading platform reserves hitting a seven-year low, but short-term risks are high—RSI has entered the overbought zone, and if the squeeze ends without spot trading picking up, Bitcoin's price could quickly retreat.Altcoins have shifted towards personalized narratives, with tokenization and AI computing sectors performing prominently. Overall, in the crypto market, this round of rebound needs to be quickly validated as a true bull market starting point: currently driven mainly by the stock market and leverage resonance, if CPI rises or the Fed's leadership change brings uncertainty, whether Bitcoin can independently hold above $80,000 will become a key confirmation signal.

Zhao Changpeng (CZ) posted on the X platform, "The industry's winter is actually more suitable for doing solid work. Those who remain are all holding a long-term perspective and will not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations."

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), after Wintermute made a large deposit of token B to CEX on May 4, the price briefly dropped by 16.8%, reaching a low of $0.2777, and this morning it rose to a high of $0.5527, with a maximum fluctuation of 99%.

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, the market has experienced significant volatility, with market makers potentially taking on a large number of buy orders. Among the two main market-making addresses for major cryptocurrencies on the Hyperliquid platform, Wintermute and Auros Global have both reported varying degrees of losses.It is reported that Wintermute's market-making address has a daily loss of approximately $1.1 million, with major holdings including: $23.4 million in ETH long positions and $16.3 million in BTC short positions, while providing liquidity for 96 cryptocurrencies. Auros Global's market-making address has a daily loss of approximately $400,000, with major holdings including: $44.8 million in BTC long positions and $18 million in SOL and XRP long positions, while providing liquidity for 175 cryptocurrencies.

According to CoinDesk, Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor stated "Winter's over" when Bitcoin was around $78,000. Analyst Mati Greenspan pointed out that the previous "flash crash" was more of a correction in a bull market, and he believes the bottom for Bitcoin has been reached, with the next phase of growth driven by "national-level adoption," including central banks incorporating BTC into reserves alongside gold.The report mentioned that the U.S. government currently holds about 300,000 BTC and is discussing the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve; El Salvador continues to purchase daily, and Bitcoin has also been included in asset allocations by the UK government and some state-level pension funds in the U.S.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee stated at the Paris Blockchain Week 2026 conference that the current decline in the crypto market resembles a "mini crypto winter," which may be nearing its end, and believes that risk assets have bottomed out amid "bad news" such as geopolitical conflicts.He pointed out that Ethereum is expected to emerge from a long-term consolidation and will benefit from the trend of tokenization and the development of on-chain AI (agentic AI) applications in the future. If his market assumptions hold, the price of ETH could reach $60,000, with a long-term fair value potentially reaching around $62,000 (based on its estimate that Ethereum will achieve about 1/4 of Bitcoin's market value).Lee emphasized that the U.S. stock market has already seen a bottom and is driving the recovery of risk assets, while this round of crypto correction is a rare "non-stock market synchronized bear cycle." He also mentioned that the market often forms a bottom after significant negative events such as wars. As of now, ETH has dropped about 43% from its peak in October 2025, and the market remains in a clearly volatile range.