wintermute

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute (0xecb...2b00) holds a total position value of 81.36 million USD in Hyperliquid, of which 69.59 million USD is a short position and 11.77 million USD is a long position, with a short ratio of 85.5%. Its largest short positions include: a short position of 22.61 million USD in ETH, with a leverage of 15 times; a short position of 12.65 million USD in SOL, with a leverage of 20 times; a short position of 4.20 million USD in XRP, with a leverage of 10 times; and a short position of 4.10 million USD in the S&P 500, with a leverage of 3 times.Wintermute holds a total of 132 open positions, with an unrealized profit of 936,400 USD, a profit of 9.66 million USD over the past 30 days, and a cumulative profit of 17.746 million USD.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute holds approximately 87.34 million USD in open positions on Hyperliquid, with short positions around 75.45 million USD, accounting for 86.4%; long positions around 11.89 million USD, accounting for 13.6%.Current floating profit is approximately 3.97 million USD, with a historical cumulative profit of about 209.79 million USD. Its largest short positions include approximately 18.33 million USD in ETH, approximately 12.07 million USD in SOL, and approximately 10.72 million USD in SP500.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, in the past 12 hours, 5 newly created wallets received 1,162 Bitcoins from Wintermute, worth 96.77 million dollars. Lookonchain stated that this may indicate that a certain whale purchased the aforementioned Bitcoins through Wintermute.

Wintermute stated that the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that most officials expect another interest rate hike within the year, with the market pricing in a roughly 20% probability of a rate increase by the end of October. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 5.24%. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 index rose 1.2% last week, reaching a historic high, while the cryptocurrency market performed weakly. The rise in U.S. stocks was supported by expectations of corporate earnings growth, while the cryptocurrency market lacked similar earnings support and relied more on new capital inflows.As capital flows reversed, the cryptocurrency assets' sustained upward momentum over the previous six weeks became difficult to maintain. Bitcoin fell back from around $86,000 to $87,000 last week, dipping to about $80,400 on Thursday before rebounding above $83,000 and regaining the range high of $82,500. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $679 million last week, the largest single-week outflow since late June, while the Ethereum ETF experienced a net outflow of about $542 million.The cryptocurrency market has lost the support of capital inflows, while U.S. stocks still have earnings growth as a cushion. Therefore, in the short term, the market outlook will only remain optimistic if long-term Treasury yields stabilize and spot ETF funds turn back to net inflows. Before these two conditions are met, Bitcoin remains an asset that is more sensitive to U.S. stock volatility and has higher downside risks, making it inadvisable to chase low-quality altcoins. If the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks above the 5.64% reached on September 30, or if Bitcoin continues to face resistance around $82,500, Wintermute will adopt a cautious stance. This week, attention should be focused on the U.S. September CPI data to assess whether energy inflation is spreading to core inflation, as well as the financial performance of financial institutions and AI-related companies.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute sold 619.59 BTC through Binance, worth 51.7 million USD.Meanwhile, BlackRock's IBIT ETF purchased and received 1,426.47 BTC from Coinbase Prime, worth 119 million USD.

Wintermute posted that, on the macro front, risk assets continued to rise last week. Even with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 5%, a high not seen since 2007, there was no significant risk-averse sentiment in the market. Crypto assets led the way, with altcoins rising approximately 5%, followed closely by BTC, and the Nasdaq also recorded gains, while long-term U.S. Treasuries performed the weakest.The report believes that oil prices will be a key factor influencing the interest rate hike expectations for October. Currently, oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below pre-conflict levels, with Brent crude prices nearing $103 per barrel. If oil prices continue to stay around or above $100 per barrel, market expectations for another rate hike in October may remain high, at which point the core issue will shift to whether risk assets can absorb further rate hikes in the short term while bonds remain under pressure.In the crypto market, BTC last week first stood above the 50-week moving average on a weekly basis, with the current level of $82,500 being the upper boundary of the previous consolidation range, which is also a key position to watch this week; if this level can stabilize, it may become the foundation for the previous breakout; otherwise, a drop below this level will reignite concerns about the validity of the breakout. Meanwhile, BTC's market share has increased, the breadth of altcoin gains is at a relatively high level, and institutional options trading continues to increase with low Delta bullish options and call spreads being added for year-end positioning.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, the market maker Wintermute currently holds a short position of 126.25 million USD on the decentralized trading platform Hyperliquid.The main positions include: ETH short of 46.92 million USD, SOL short of 11.3 million USD, HYPE short of 10.03 million USD.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, the FTX / Alameda Research asset liquidation team transferred 27,372 ETH to Wintermute through 6 wallets 3 hours ago, worth 75.32 million USD, suspected to be entrusted to Wintermute for sale. The related address is 0xCe84...f228.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, after HYPE broke through 97.5 USD, Wintermute has begun to transfer HYPE tokens in large quantities to major centralized exchanges.

Wintermute released the market weekly report, stating that the Federal Reserve passed an interest rate hike of 25 basis points to 3.75-4% with a unanimous vote of 12-0 on September 21. Sixteen officials expect at least one more rate hike this year, and inflation is not expected to return to the 2% target before 2029.The two major catalysts that the market was focused on—the FOMC rate hike and the CLARITY Act—have both materialized: the CLARITY Act failed to pass in the Senate (49-50, not reaching the 60-vote threshold), and the SEC and CFTC immediately stated they would formulate cryptocurrency regulatory rules under existing authority. The market adjusted for only one trading day before recovering. BTC traded this week in the range of $75,000 to $81,000, with a weekly closing price of $81,159, marking the first time since last November that it has stood above the 50-week moving average; ETH rose 6.7%, trading in the range of $2,350 to $2,600.In terms of ETF funds, there was a net outflow of $746 million from Tuesday to Wednesday, followed by a return of $593 million from Thursday to Friday, resulting in a net outflow of about $6 million over five trading days, with the outflow triggered by CLARITY almost fully replenished within 48 hours. Entering this week, both BTC and ETH broke through the upper range before the U.S. stock market opened, accompanied by about $250 million in short liquidations, with BTC briefly reaching $86,000, a new eight-month high.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute (0xecb...2b00) currently holds a short position in perpetual contracts worth 160 million USD, with an unrealized loss of 3.57 million USD.Among them, the short position in ETH is worth 53.05 million USD, the short position in BTC is worth 26.66 million USD, the short position in SOL is worth 17.84 million USD, and the short position in HYPE is worth 11.62 million USD; the trading volume in the last 30 days is 16.91 billion USD.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute transferred approximately 2,550 bitcoins to Binance, worth about 192.91 million USD.

According to OnchainLens monitoring, after the "CLARITY Act" failed to advance this morning, the market maker Wintermute began to realize short profits. The short exposure decreased from 102.1 million dollars to 55.54 million dollars, and the unrealized profit and loss increased from 928,000 dollars to 2.28 million dollars.Its ETH short position also decreased from 15,330 coins (approximately 38.47 million dollars) to 7,810 coins (approximately 18.72 million dollars), with a cumulative profit of 179.89 million dollars.

According to Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm, the BTC ETF experienced a net outflow of $463 million, marking the first negative value since the low in June, with ARK and Grayscale accounting for a combined outflow of $371 million, while BlackRock remained flat. As a result, BTC fell 4.4% over the week, closing at $76,838, making it the worst-performing asset, while Ethereum dropped 1.5%, and altcoins overall rose by 1%.On a macro level, the U.S. August CPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.4% (core 0.3%), higher than the expected 0.2%, and the PPI annual rate reached 5.4%, prompting Goldman Sachs to change its September forecast from "hold steady" to "raise interest rates." The market's expectation for a 25bp rate hike on Wednesday has risen to 87%. Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, with Brent crude oil surpassing $105 per barrel, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hitting a 20-year high.Wintermute stated that after the ETF fund outflow turned negative, it tends to hold a neutral rather than bullish stance on the market. This week has two key events: ① On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate will conduct a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act (the cryptocurrency market structure bill), which requires 60 votes to pass; ② On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, with the rate hike itself already priced in, but subsequent hawkish statements (especially signals regarding continued rate hikes in the first quarter of 2027) may pose downward pressure on the cryptocurrency market.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute currently holds approximately 102.1 million USD in perpetual contract short positions and continues to deposit more funds to increase its short exposure.Data shows that its total exposure is 122.23 million USD, with unrealized profits of about 928,400 USD, a loss of 12.04 million USD in the past 30 days, and a historical cumulative profit of approximately 176.88 million USD from perpetual contracts. Among them, the largest position is a short position of 15,330 ETH, valued at about 38.47 million USD.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, Wintermute (0xf819...73AA) deposited 61,847 ETH to Binance and Coinbase in the past 3 hours, worth 160.3 million USD.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, Wintermute obtained 2.5 million tokens from the $LAPTOP project team and immediately began selling them on-chain. Currently, 466,255 tokens have been sold at an average price of $4.47, cashing out approximately 2.08 million USD, with about 2.03 million tokens remaining to be disposed of.

According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, 21 hours ago, Wintermute received 2.5 million LAPTOP from the LAPTOP multi-signature address, and subsequently distributed the relevant tokens to multiple exchange deposit addresses.Previously, GSR Markets and G20 received market-making tokens a few days ago, and Wintermute may be a newly added market-making participant. If this transfer is indeed part of a market-making arrangement, the total amount of LAPTOP actually used for market-making will increase to 23 million tokens, accounting for 2.3% of the total supply. Among them, GSR Markets received 15.5 million, G20 received 5 million, and Wintermute received 2.5 million.