wintermute

According to Cointelegraph, Wintermute stated that it is expanding its institutional trading business into prediction markets. Wintermute will provide two-way market liquidity for event contracts at major venues to reduce spreads, support larger trades, and improve the reliability of market implied probabilities.Jake Ostrovskis, Head of OTC Trading at Wintermute, stated that prediction markets possess data characteristics of major asset classes, but liquidity is still in the early stages. Continuous two-way liquidity can not only narrow spreads but also support larger trading volumes, thereby improving the signals contained in market prices.

According to The Block, quantitative market maker Wintermute has announced its entry into the prediction market sector, providing two-way quote liquidity services for several mainstream event contract platforms, marking the official expansion of its trading infrastructure into the emerging market at the intersection of crypto and traditional assets.The company stated that it has been continuously providing buy and sell bilateral quotes on multiple "leading platforms," with the total monthly trading volume of these prediction markets exceeding $20 billion this year, indicating that this sector is growing rapidly but still in the early stages of liquidity. Wintermute's annual trading volume exceeds $3.5 trillion, and this expansion further strengthens its cross-asset market-making capabilities.Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at the company, stated that prediction markets have a demand structure similar to traditional major asset classes, but liquidity is still insufficient, requiring continuous bilateral quotes to enhance price discovery efficiency and trading depth. He pointed out that tighter spreads and greater trading capacity will improve the quality of market probability signals.In the industry, institutions such as Jump Trading and Galaxy Digital have also entered this field, with some platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi having a cumulative trading volume exceeding $150 billion. Analysts believe that Wintermute's entry further promotes the integration of prediction markets and crypto infrastructure, especially in terms of stablecoin settlement, on-chain clearing, and risk management systems, as these markets gradually approach a derivatives-level institutional development structure.

Wintermute stated that the macro environment improved significantly last week, with Brent crude oil dropping 9% due to easing tensions in Iran, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling to 4.5%, and U.S. stocks rising for the eighth consecutive week to reach a historic high, alleviating inflationary pressures driven by energy.However, consumer-level concerns have not dissipated, as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell to a historic low of 44.8, and one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI for May reached a four-year high, with input costs rising to their highest level since 2022, indicating a resurgence in commodity inflation.The minutes from the Federal Reserve's April meeting also signaled that "if inflation remains stubborn, further tightening of policy may occur," and the market has not fully priced in the hawkish expectations. In the tech sector, Nvidia reported "explosive" earnings: Q1 revenue reached $81.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 85%, with data center business growth of 92%, and announced a $80 billion buyback and a 25-fold increase in dividends.More critically, its Q2 guidance has already assumed zero revenue from Chinese data centers, indicating stronger actual AI demand. However, the market reacted unusually coldly, with after-hours stock prices barely moving, reflecting that AI trading has entered a "perfect pricing" phase, where simply exceeding expectations is no longer enough to drive the market.This serves as an important warning for risk assets, including the crypto market—if AI momentum weakens, weak consumption, sticky inflation, and a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve will re-dominate market narratives. Compared to the strength of U.S. stocks, the crypto market has clearly lagged. BTC hovers around $76,000, and ETH has fallen to $2,140, neither following the rise of risk assets.In the past two weeks, over $2 billion has flowed out of BTC spot ETFs, with institutional funds noticeably cooling, and marginal risk appetite has shifted back to AI stocks rather than crypto assets. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, hitting a new 10-month low, while the few assets that have remained strong against the trend are HYPE, which saw a single-day ETF inflow record of $25.5 million and signs of large institutional wallets continuously accumulating.The current market structure has not completely deteriorated; long-term holders are still increasing their positions, and trading platform reserves remain low, but the capital flow that determines short-term prices is turning negative. The key support level for BTC is currently between $75,000 and $76,000; if it falls below this range, the market may quickly test the $70,000 to $72,000 area; if it holds, there is still a chance to challenge $80,000 again.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a giant whale deposited 17.566 million ENA (approximately 1.78 million USD) into Wintermute, while that address had previously withdrawn the same batch of ENA from Wintermute and Binance, with a cost of about 5.38 million USD. This operation resulted in a total loss of approximately 3.6 million USD.

The latest market intelligence report released by the digital asset trading firm Wintermute shows that global financial markets are undergoing a large-scale macroeconomic repricing, with the market narrative shifting from discussions about the timing of interest rate cuts to preparing for potential rate hikes. This structural shift has been triggered by unexpectedly strong economic data and reignited inflationary pressures, creating significant headwinds for digital assets.The report notes that Bitcoin saw a sharp decline after briefly breaking through $83,000, giving back significant gains within a week, while mainstream alternative tokens experienced double-digit percentage drops. Global wealth managers are actively de-risking under macro constraints, highlighting the fragility of digital asset expansion. On-chain trading indicators suggest that the previous price increases were not driven by genuine spot market demand or organic retail accumulation, but rather primarily from short squeezes in the perpetual futures market.The total open interest in Bitcoin derivatives rapidly expanded by $10 billion to $58 billion within a month, while the underlying spot trading volume simultaneously fell to a two-year low. When Bitcoin broke through $80,000, a large number of short positions were forcibly liquidated, triggering a brief buying frenzy, but failed to establish a lasting structural bottom.The main driving factor behind the current market reversal is that global CPI data continues to exceed expectations, reigniting widespread concerns about interest rate hikes. At the same time, ongoing uncertainty surrounding the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair has injected unpredictability into the market. Despite long-term positive signals, including a recent net inflow of $623 million into spot ETFs and Bitcoin reserves on trading platforms dropping to a seven-year low, Wintermute emphasizes that these long-term trends are insufficient to alleviate recent structural risks.As international asset managers shift capital towards short-term sovereign debt instruments, digital platforms are struggling to maintain momentum. The near-term outlook for the tokenized market will depend on whether genuine spot buyers return to stabilize the weak liquidity gap.

According to The Block, crypto market maker Wintermute has launched the DeFi vault curation platform Armitage, designed for non-custodial vaults catering to different risk appetites, to access decentralized lending opportunities. Wintermute stated that, relying on its market-making business and clearing execution capabilities, Armitage can accept "collateral types that other curators cannot support." The announcement mentioned that user deposits do not require KYC, and users retain control over their funds. As institutions continue to engage in vault strategies like Morpho on Ethereum and Kamino on Solana, vaults are becoming an important tool for institutional participation in the crypto market.

Wintermute released a market outlook indicating that the cryptocurrency market has come under significant pressure this week due to the resurgence of inflation in the U.S. and a reversal in interest rate expectations. Bitcoin failed to break through the 200-day moving average when it first encountered a major macro shock, showing that the previous rally was driven more by short covering rather than sustained inflows of new capital.The market environment has clearly changed, with U.S. CPI growth accelerating, core inflation exceeding expectations, and real wages turning negative. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to 4.58%, while a new Fed chair with a more hawkish stance will take office in three weeks. The market's pricing of the Fed's policy path has also changed rapidly, shifting from betting on rate cuts to concerns about further rate hikes within just five trading days.Cross-asset performance also reflects this change: Brent crude oil rose 8.6% this week, while Bitcoin and Ethereum fell 5.7% and 10.2%, respectively. Capital is flowing into assets that drive inflation, while cryptocurrencies have performed even weaker than the stock market during the downturn, a relative weakness that is considered a cause for concern.Despite the long-term structural positives still in place, including Bitcoin reserves on exchanges remaining at multi-year lows, long-term holders continuing to accumulate, and the advancement of the U.S. crypto regulatory bill "CLARITY," institutional capital is more inclined to take profits on rebounds in the short term rather than continue to increase positions. The market is currently focused on the $76,000 to $78,000 range for Bitcoin; if it can hold this position after Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday, market confidence may recover. However, if it falls below $75,000, along with a decline in funding rates and continued outflows from ETFs, it could quickly drop to the $70,000 range.

According to a report by Cryptopolitan, a market report released by Wintermute indicates that Bitcoin's breakthrough of $80,000 is primarily driven by a short squeeze in the perpetual futures market, rather than by spot demand. Over the past month, Bitcoin futures open interest has increased by about $10 billion to $58 billion, while spot trading volume has dropped to a two-year low. When Bitcoin surpassed $70,000, a large number of shorts were forced to close their positions, triggering a buying spree that pushed prices higher. Wintermute warns that the rally, lacking support from spot demand, is fragile, and the market may face a sharp reversal.In the long term, recent net inflows into spot ETFs have reached $623 million, and the exchange's Bitcoin inventory has fallen to a seven-year low, but these factors are not enough to offset short-term risks. The U.S. CPI data being higher than expected and the uncertainty surrounding the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair may also exacerbate market pressures. Wintermute states that $85,000 is still a possibility, but the risk-reward ratio for buying at the current price level is poor.

Wintermute released a weekly market summary stating that the U.S. stock market continued its strong performance, recording a sixth consecutive week of gains, with the Nasdaq index rising 4.5% and the S&P 500 index rising 2.3%, both reaching all-time highs, while small-cap stocks and tech giants strengthened simultaneously. Non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.3%, showcasing a resilient labor market. Despite the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz, the market viewed it as noise, and the war premium has significantly receded. Iran-U.S. negotiations have returned to square one, with Iran's demands for sovereignty, compensation, and sanctions relief being directly rejected by Trump. This week's CPI data will test the transmission of energy prices to inflation, and with Powell's term ending and Waller taking over, the Fed's June FOMC dot plot will be closely watched.In terms of crypto assets, Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 mark, reaching a peak of around $83,000, marking its first time above the 200-day moving average (for the first time in seven months), but this rise was clearly driven by leverage: open interest surged by $10 billion in one month, while spot trading volume hit a two-year low, indicating a typical short squeeze rather than a healthy breakout. Institutional funding remains supportive, with ETF net inflows of $623 million and trading platform reserves hitting a seven-year low, but short-term risks are high—RSI has entered the overbought zone, and if the squeeze ends without spot trading picking up, Bitcoin's price could quickly retreat.Altcoins have shifted towards personalized narratives, with tokenization and AI computing sectors performing prominently. Overall, in the crypto market, this round of rebound needs to be quickly validated as a true bull market starting point: currently driven mainly by the stock market and leverage resonance, if CPI rises or the Fed's leadership change brings uncertainty, whether Bitcoin can independently hold above $80,000 will become a key confirmation signal.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), after Wintermute made a large deposit of token B to CEX on May 4, the price briefly dropped by 16.8%, reaching a low of $0.2777, and this morning it rose to a high of $0.5527, with a maximum fluctuation of 99%.

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, the market has experienced significant volatility, with market makers potentially taking on a large number of buy orders. Among the two main market-making addresses for major cryptocurrencies on the Hyperliquid platform, Wintermute and Auros Global have both reported varying degrees of losses.It is reported that Wintermute's market-making address has a daily loss of approximately $1.1 million, with major holdings including: $23.4 million in ETH long positions and $16.3 million in BTC short positions, while providing liquidity for 96 cryptocurrencies. Auros Global's market-making address has a daily loss of approximately $400,000, with major holdings including: $44.8 million in BTC long positions and $18 million in SOL and XRP long positions, while providing liquidity for 175 cryptocurrencies.

Wintermute stated that the market experienced two distinct phases last week: the first half of the week was driven by ceasefire expectations, with the Nasdaq rising 4.5%, Bitcoin up 2.6%, and the VIX falling below 20. Over the weekend, talks in Islamabad broke down, and the U.S. announced a comprehensive maritime blockade on Iranian ports, causing Brent crude oil to surge 8% in a single day, returning above $103, leading risk assets to give back their gains.On the macro front: U.S. March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, with core CPI slightly below expectations at 2.6%. The market believes this is still a concentrated energy shock rather than widespread inflation. Asian markets saw a slight decline overnight, with Nasdaq futures steady. The market's reaction to each new piece of news is weakening, suggesting that it may have priced in the worst-case scenario or is becoming complacent.In terms of crypto assets: Bitcoin closed up 2.6% last week but did not lead the gains. The price has been consolidating in the $65,000-$73,000 range for over two months. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $22.3 million last week, while Ethereum ETFs continued to bleed, with outflows reaching $327 million year-to-date. Open interest in perpetual contracts has stabilized in the $28-30 billion range.Options traders' gamma exposure in the $68,000-$72,000 range indicates that hedging activities will amplify bidirectional volatility within that range. Wintermute believes that the ceasefire trade is dead, and the market is returning to an escalation trend. However, the market's reaction function is weakening. Confirmation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could push Bitcoin to break above $75,000, while continued escalation may keep prices in a range-bound fluctuation with a downward tendency. The earnings season may partially shift market attention back to fundamentals, which could change the positioning behavior at the edges of the range.

According to CoinDesk, Ron Hammond, the policy head of crypto market maker Wintermute, stated that the legislative process for the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, is still hindered by multiple factors, with a probability of passing this year at about 30%.The bill aims to clarify the division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC in the regulation of digital assets, but the current negotiation progress is uneven, with the timeline repeatedly delayed. The main resistance comes from traditional banking institutions, particularly around the significant disagreements regarding whether stablecoins should offer yields. Compromise proposals have been blocked multiple times, and additionally, the internal divisions within the Democratic Party, as well as issues related to DeFi compliance and anti-money laundering, add uncertainty to the legislation.However, Ron Hammond believes there is still room for the bill to advance, but whether it can be enacted within the year depends on whether key disagreements can be resolved.

Wintermute released its latest weekly report, stating that the current macro situation was entirely driven by geopolitical news last week: On Tuesday, the Iranian president signaled a ceasefire, causing the S&P 500 to surge about 2.9%, and Brent crude oil fell to $105; however, on Wednesday, Trump made a tough speech, promising "extremely severe" strikes against Iran for 2-3 weeks and showing no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, leading WTI crude oil to soar 11% to over $111 on Thursday, while Asian markets plummeted.On Sunday, Trump threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants on Tuesday, while also stating that it was "very likely" an agreement would be reached before Monday. Reports indicate that a 45-day ceasefire framework is under discussion. The current 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.36% (up 40bp since the conflict began), and swap market pricing shows a zero probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve meeting on April 28-29. PCE data will be released on Thursday, with the market watching whether the impact of oil prices will transmit to the Fed's preferred inflation indicators.In terms of digital assets, Bitcoin only rose 2% last week, with the fear and greed index at 9 (extreme fear), and social sentiment reaching the most bearish level since the conflict began. Institutional buying remains a key support, with net inflows into ETFs in March at $1.32 billion (the strongest since October 2025), Strategy increasing its holdings by 44,000 Bitcoins, and Morgan Stanley approved to list a spot ETF at a 14bp fee rate.However, in the last week of March, ETFs turned to outflows of $414 million, and the ratio of exchange whales rose from 0.34 in January to 0.79, while over-the-counter trading data also showed institutions shifting from buying to neutral to net selling. Ethereum performed well (+4.2%), with staking yields becoming a differentiated advantage in a "higher for longer" interest rate environment.Solana dropped below $80 due to a hack of the Drift protocol (resulting in a loss of $285 million, marking the second-largest hack in Solana's history). Wintermute stated that the Tuesday deadline for the Strait of Hormuz is a critical juncture. The 45-day ceasefire framework is the most concrete de-escalation effort since the conflict began, but damage to Iranian energy facilities, Gulf refineries, and port logistics has already occurred, and even a full ceasefire cannot restore pre-war shipping capacity overnight. If the "power plant day" threat materializes on Tuesday and Iran retaliates, the risk premium for oil prices will be immediately rebuilt.

According to Arkham data, at 21:04, 1829.86 BTC (worth approximately 2.838 million USD) was transferred from Hyperunit to Wintermute.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, after a security incident of approximately $285 million occurred at Drift Protocol, FTX / Alameda sold 6.94 million DRIFT through Wintermute 6 hours ago, worth about $320,000.Data shows that Alameda previously acquired about 8.33 million DRIFT as an investor through vesting unlock, which was worth approximately $6.22 million at that time, and the current corresponding value has dropped to about $380,000.

According to Arkham data, at 15:19, 137.87 BTC (worth approximately $3.5877 million) was transferred from an anonymous address (starting with bc1qcd...) to Wintermute.

According to Arkham data, at 23:06, 249,000 SOL (worth approximately 19.68 million USD) was transferred from an anonymous address (starting with 9PYnN...) to Wintermute.

According to Arkham data, at 21:30, 151 BTC (worth approximately 10 million USD) was transferred from Coinbase to an anonymous address (starting with 1KbDEg...). Subsequently, that address transferred 151 BTC to Wintermute.

According to Arkham data, at 16:11, 51.43 BTC (worth approximately 2.9969 million USD) was transferred from OKX to Wintermute.