buyer

Glassnode data shows that buyers who have held Bitcoin for 1-2 years have realized losses, which may indicate the bottom of the bear market in 2026, with $69,000 becoming a key price battleground.

According to a research report by NYDIG, Bitcoin fell by 13.4% in the second quarter of 2026, with the year-to-date decline expanding to 32.9%. In contrast, the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 27.7%, and tech stocks increased by 43.5%, indicating that this round of decline is not due to macro risk aversion, but rather specific supply pressures unique to Bitcoin.The core pressure comes from Strategy (MSTR) launching the "Digital Credit Capital Framework," authorizing the sale of approximately $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to cover capital structure obligations, marking a shift of the largest historical marginal buyer from continuous accumulation to active monetization, with the DAT complex overall transitioning from a demand engine to a supply risk. In terms of ETFs, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $4.9 billion in the second quarter, but Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Trust attracted $364.8 million in inflows against the trend, showing that distribution channels remain competitive.In the derivatives market, amid weak spot demand and continued outflows from ETFs and stablecoins, the positive funding rate combined with a rebound in open interest indicates that leveraged long positions are rebuilding, posing a risk of passive liquidation triggering a new round of declines. Bitcoin has currently fallen 54.3% from its historical high of $126,000 set on October 6, 2025, referencing the cycles of 2018 and 2022 (with a gradually narrowing decline of about 70%).

According to SoSoValue data, as of 8 AM Eastern Time on May 25, 2026, the total net purchase of Bitcoin by global listed companies (excluding mining companies) in the last week was $17.38 million, a decrease of 99.14% compared to the previous week. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) did not purchase Bitcoin last week. The Japanese listed company Metaplanet also did not purchase Bitcoin last week. Additionally, two other companies purchased Bitcoin last week.The Japanese food brand DayDayCook announced on May 21 that it spent $15.8992 million to purchase 200 Bitcoins at a price of $79,496, bringing its total holdings to 2,583 Bitcoins; the UK Bitcoin company The Smarter Web Company announced on May 21 that it invested $1.48 million to purchase 19 Bitcoins at a price of $77,687, bringing its total holdings to 2,859 Bitcoins.As of the time of writing, the total amount of Bitcoin held by the global listed companies (excluding mining companies) in the statistics is 1,114,060 Bitcoins, an increase of 0.02% compared to the previous week, with a current market value of approximately $86.03 billion, accounting for 5.6% of the circulating market value of Bitcoin.

Wu Jihan stated on platform X that the current solar energy issue in Europe is no longer just about increasing power generation, but rather the lack of sufficient flexible power demand to absorb excess energy. He cited the latest analysis from the energy research organization Pexapark, which indicates that the phenomenon of "self-cannibalization" in European photovoltaics is rapidly worsening.Wu Jihan pointed out that the speed of solar deployment in Europe has outpaced the construction of grid system flexibility. In addition to energy storage, grid expansion, and demand response, Europe should also pay attention to interruptible loads, including Bitcoin mining and other computational loads. These types of loads can be activated when electricity is abundant and shut down when the grid is tight, thus becoming the "last buyer" of excess renewable energy, reducing curtailment, improving the profitability of photovoltaic projects, and enhancing the profitability and financing feasibility of investments in generation and grid infrastructure.

Analyst Murphy stated that new addresses buying Bitcoin for the first time (First Buyers, FB) are providing fresh blood to the market while absorbing excess distribution. As of May 13, the Bitcoin holdings of first-time buyer addresses have returned to 3.719 million, an increase of 40,000 BTC compared to May 1. The continuous accumulation by new buyers reflects a gradual recovery in investor risk appetite. In comparison to the last cycle, the current 3.72 million is comparable to September 21, 2022. Once the holdings of new buyers exceed 4 million, the overall market structure will become healthier, making it unlikely to experience significant declines or fall below previous lows.

According to CoinDesk, Bitfinex cites BitGo data showing that the supply held by Bitcoin "belief buyers" has surged to nearly 4 million BTC, a 300% increase since the end of 2025. At the current price of about $80,000, this "belief" capital is worth approximately $320 billion.Bitfinex states that the current accumulation trend is the largest two-quarter surge of high-belief buying since the pandemic crash in 2020, with an increasing amount of Bitcoin realizing value no longer circulating on exchanges but instead moving into the hands of entities that trade very little.Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, notes that the exact methodology of the BitGo "belief buyer" metric is not clear, but historically, the combination of tightening liquid supply and demand recovery has created conditions for Bitcoin's most aggressive upward expansions.

Crypto analyst Murphy posted on the X platform that the holdings of new Bitcoin buyers have been steadily increasing recently, rising from a low of 3.38 million to 3.68 million.Although there is still a distance of over 1 million from the peak of the bull market, it at least indicates that as the macro environment improves, investors' risk appetite is gradually returning. Compared to the last cycle, this is roughly equivalent to the scale of new buyers in mid-August 2022. At that time, it was also in the latter half of a bear market. BTC rebounded from a low of $19,000 to $24,000 (a 26% rebound); this time, BTC rebounded from $62,000 to $79,000 (a 27% rebound); the situation is similar.However, the difference is that to hold the same amount of BTC, the money spent is 3-4 times that of the past, yet it still cannot stop so many strong new buyers from entering the market.

According to analyst Murphy, the on-chain holdings of new Bitcoin buyers (short-term holders) have continued to rebound, increasing from a temporary low of 3.38 million to 3.68 million.Although this scale is still over 1 million coins away from the peak of the last bull market, analysts believe that as the macro environment improves, investors' risk appetite is gradually recovering. From a historical cycle comparison, the current holdings of new buyers are roughly equivalent to the levels seen in mid-August 2022 (the latter half of the bear market). At that time, the BTC price rebounded from a low of about $19,000 to $24,000, an increase of about 26%; while this time, BTC rebounded from $62,000 to $79,000, an increase of about 27%, showing a similar rebound magnitude.It is worth noting that although the amount of capital required to accumulate the same number of BTC is now 3 to 4 times that of the past, there are still many strong new buyers entering the market. This phenomenon indicates that the market depth, capital capacity, and participant structure of Bitcoin have fundamentally changed, further solidifying its status as a mainstream asset.

Grayscale analyst Zach Pandl disclosed data showing that Bitcoin has rebounded over 20% from its low of about $63,000 in early February, with the current price around $76,000, slightly above the average cost (realized price) of about $74,000 for buyers in the past 1 to 3 months, indicating that most short-term investors have returned to the breakeven zone.Analysis suggests that if the price continues to rise, more recent buyers will enter a profitable state, which is often seen as one of the important signals at the beginning of a bull market. However, Bitcoin is still below the peak from last October. Market views indicate that this round of recovery may have formed a relatively solid phase bottom in the range of $65,000 to $70,000.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart posted on the X platform that, based on the latest disclosed data, the list of investors purchasing the Solana ETF is primarily composed of various market makers and crypto investment institutions, representing a "star lineup" of industry players.According to the disclosed data, the top three holders of Solana ETF exposure are: Electric Capital Partners (over $137 million), Goldman Sachs Group (over $107 million), and Elequin Capital (over $87.9 million). Additionally, Morgan Stanley currently holds approximately $15.3 million.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that since the launch of the spot ETF in July, SOL has dropped by 57% (which is probably one of the worst issuance timings in ETF history), but these ETFs have still cumulatively attracted $1.5 billion in inflows, with virtually no significant redemptions.Additionally, about 50% of the assets come from institutional investors that submit 13F reports—this means the investor base is quite serious and professional. Both of these points are very positive signals for the future.The 13F report is a quarterly holdings report that institutional investors managing over $100 million in assets are required to submit to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the Securities Exchange Act.

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, 13F filing institutions have collectively reduced their holdings in Ethereum spot ETFs, with hedge funds concentrating their selling due to the collapse of basis trade returns; traditional/long-term funds are increasing their positions against the trend, with Harvard's endowment fund being the largest new buyer this season.

Cryptanalysis expert Murphy stated that analyzing on-chain data from both spatial and temporal dimensions, the current distance to the "bear bottom" is no longer far off. In terms of space, taking the previous cycle as an example, in June 2022, BTC dropped to a low of $17,000, which is not far from the ultimate absolute bottom price of $15,000, indicating that it is already in the "bear bottom" range spatially. However, it took a full 7 months to truly emerge from and complete the bottom reconstruction.Currently, the "space" is getting closer to the bear bottom, but there is still a considerable distance in terms of "time." It is crucial to observe the behavior of conviction-driven buyers (Conviction Buyers, hereinafter referred to as CB), who, as the smartest diamond hands in this market, often buy during declines and sell after increases. In other words, rather than saying they frequently buy at the bottom, it is more accurate to say that the bottom is often constructed by this group of buyers. As of February, conviction buyers have accumulated a holding of 3.48 million BTC, setting a new record for this cycle. Since January of this year, they have significantly increased their holdings by 1.22 million BTC, a figure that far exceeds the previous cycle's events during the 5.19 incident, LUNA crash, and FTX collapse. Moreover, the current BTC price is higher than the aforementioned time points, indicating that "smart decision-makers" are investing more funds at this time.Although the final bottom position is difficult to predict, for the CB group, they do not hope to go all-in at the lowest point; as long as there is sufficient cost-effectiveness, they will continue to buy until all excess supply is absorbed. When a balance is achieved on both the supply and demand sides, it forms the bottom range of the bear market, after which, through months of consensus reconstruction, a new trend will emerge. From historical data, the determination and strength currently exhibited by conviction-driven buyers fully meet the standard of "not far from the bear bottom."

According to the Financial Times, Tether net purchased $28.2 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds in 2025, becoming the seventh largest foreign buyer, with its holdings surpassing those of countries like South Korea and Saudi Arabia, alongside Circle. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes stablecoins are tools for promoting the dollar and absorbing U.S. debt, expecting the industry to grow from its current $300 billion to $3 trillion.Currently, the banking industry and the cryptocurrency sector are competing over stablecoin regulations. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong have disagreements on related terms. The banking sector is concerned that allowing third parties to pay interest on stablecoins will lead retail deposits to flow into stablecoins, thereby increasing financial risk. This standoff has caused divisions among Trump supporters, involving conflicts of interest between Wall Street banks and cryptocurrency industry donors.

Tether's U.S. subsidiary CEO and former White House crypto advisor Bo Hines stated that as the demand for USDT and the newly launched stablecoin USAT continues to grow, Tether expects to further increase its holdings of U.S. Treasury bills (T-bills) this year and aims to become one of the top ten U.S. debt buyers globally.Data shows that USDT is currently the largest stablecoin by market capitalization, with a circulation of approximately $185 billion. According to the latest reserve proof, about 83.11% of Tether's reserve assets are allocated to U.S. Treasury bonds, totaling over $122 billion. Hines noted that this scale has placed Tether among the top twenty foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities, ranking between Germany and Saudi Arabia. Hines also revealed that since its launch in 2014, the number of USDT users has reached approximately 530 million, currently growing at a rate of about 30 million users per quarter.

The ETF Store President Nate Geraci posted on the X platform that spot Ethereum ETF buyers are paying an average of $3,500 per token. The current price of Ethereum is $2,100, and it has performed poorly over the past six months.

Former hedge fund manager and CNBC host Jim Cramer stated this morning, "As Bitcoin's price drops to $77,000, buyers are expected to enter the market, pushing the price of Bitcoin back up to the $82,000 level."

The chairman of the board of TONX, a company listed on NASDAQ, Manuel Stotz, stated that all TON sold by Telegram has a four-year vesting period. In addition, the main buyer of the tokens sold by Telegram is his company, TONX, which is intended for long-term holding and staking.The Financial Times previously reported that Telegram's revenue in the first half of the year reached $870 million, a 65% year-on-year increase, partly due to the TON ecosystem; the company has sold over $450 million in TON, but Stotz emphasized that Telegram's net TON holdings have not significantly decreased and may even have increased.