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Data: Leverage rather than spot demand drives Bitcoin, value and momentum buyers are still on the sidelines

According to a research report by NYDIG, Bitcoin fell by 13.4% in the second quarter of 2026, with the year-to-date decline expanding to 32.9%. In contrast, the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 27.7%, and tech stocks increased by 43.5%, indicating that this round of decline is not due to macro risk aversion, but rather specific supply pressures unique to Bitcoin.The core pressure comes from Strategy (MSTR) launching the "Digital Credit Capital Framework," authorizing the sale of approximately $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to cover capital structure obligations, marking a shift of the largest historical marginal buyer from continuous accumulation to active monetization, with the DAT complex overall transitioning from a demand engine to a supply risk. In terms of ETFs, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $4.9 billion in the second quarter, but Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Trust attracted $364.8 million in inflows against the trend, showing that distribution channels remain competitive.In the derivatives market, amid weak spot demand and continued outflows from ETFs and stablecoins, the positive funding rate combined with a rebound in open interest indicates that leveraged long positions are rebuilding, posing a risk of passive liquidation triggering a new round of declines. Bitcoin has currently fallen 54.3% from its historical high of $126,000 set on October 6, 2025, referencing the cycles of 2018 and 2022 (with a gradually narrowing decline of about 70%).

The Bank of Korea expects the AI-driven chip supercycle to continue, dismissing concerns of a "peak."

A report released by the Bank of Korea on July 13 pointed out that the global semiconductor market is still in a state of supply shortage, and the chip supercycle driven by artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to last for a long time, which refutes market concerns that the chip cycle has peaked.The central bank's analysis states that the current chip cycle is different from previous ones, primarily driven by competitive investments made by companies to respond to the fundamental changes in the industrial ecosystem brought about by AI. At the same time, due to the current market being dominated by customized products such as high bandwidth memory (HBM), the pace of supply expansion is more constrained than in the past.Recently, concerns over excessive investment in AI infrastructure and potential oversupply of memory chips have triggered a sell-off in tech stocks, with significant declines in the stock prices of South Korean chip giants such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. In response, the Bank of Korea stated that although there remains uncertainty regarding the speed of AI technology adoption and profit prospects, major investment banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley generally predict that the global semiconductor market will maintain strong momentum at least through next year.

1confirmation Founder: The next round of user growth in the crypto market may be driven by the tokenization of RWA

Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, stated on the X platform that bringing real-world assets (RWA) on-chain will become an important direction for driving the next phase of development in the cryptocurrency industry and is expected to lead to large-scale consumer adoption. The core value of bringing RWA on-chain lies in enabling global users to access asset classes that were previously difficult to obtain. "Global accessibility" has always been one of the most attractive features of the cryptocurrency industry and is also a key reason for the success of crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.Nick Tomaino believes that crypto assets that drive new behaviors and are built on concepts that go beyond mere monetary value will continue to exist in the long term. However, as the market gradually realizes that the cost of creating tokens is close to zero, the model of relying solely on token issuance to drive price increases is difficult to sustain. The growth cycle of many "speculative tokens" is coming to an end, and the market will enter a new growth phase driven by tokens backed by real assets. Currently, stablecoins have become the most mature case of RWA applications, and in the coming year, the on-chainization of assets such as stocks, commodities, government bonds, corporate bonds, and real estate is expected to accelerate further.Nick Tomaino mentioned that on-chain physical collectibles (such as sports cards and jerseys) could become one of the most worthwhile directions for building and investing in RWA today. As the speculative-driven token cycle gradually recedes, on-chain assets supported by real assets and practical use cases will be key to attracting the next batch of users into the cryptocurrency market.
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