interest

A recent Reuters survey shows that the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook is changing. The expectation for an interest rate hike in October has cooled, but the surveyed economists collectively expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates again in December.In the survey conducted from October 16 to 20, 94 economists expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 3.75% to 4.00% at the meeting on October 27 to 28. This judgment is consistent with the expectations reflected in market pricing, and this meeting is just days before the U.S. midterm elections in November.The interest rate expectations for December have shifted. In last month's survey, less than half of the economists expected the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December; in this survey, all 100 respondents expect a rate hike at that time.

Bitcoin has been trapped in the range of $80,000 to $84,000 for the past two weeks. Huobi HTX's chief analyst Cloud believes that this is essentially a balance of two opposing forces: ETFs have seen a net outflow for two consecutive weeks, while exchange holdings continue to flow out, and long-term holders are only moderately cashing out. In the week leading up to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Bitcoin is likely to continue waiting in this range. The CME has only priced in a 16% chance of a rate hike in October, while economists generally believe it is close to a 50-50 chance. This discrepancy in pricing and opinions will make funds hesitant to bet in advance.If a direction is chosen in advance, the possibility of a downward test is slightly higher: the funding rate remains high, and the options skew continues to lean towards puts, indicating that bulls have not yet cleared out, and the demand for downside protection is still increasing. However, there has been effective support formed multiple times below $80,000 in the past month, making a downward breakout more likely to be a false breakout.Confirmation signals for a breakout are divided into two groups: for an upward breakout, the daily close needs to be above $84,200, with a cumulative net inflow of over $500 million into ETFs for three consecutive days, and the funding rate not exceeding 15%; for a downward breakout, it must fall below $79,800, with a single-week ETF outflow exceeding $500 million, while exchange funds turn into net inflows. The true source of direction will come from the interest rate decision announced at midnight on October 29, Beijing time, and the nearly 89% pricing for a rate hike in December.Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment products.

A Reuters survey shows that 100 surveyed economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December 2026, while action may be paused in October.Among them, 94 expect that by the end of 2026, the federal funds rate will rise to 4.00% - 4.25%. In contrast, in the September survey, only 29 economists held this expectation out of 76 respondents.

Bitcoin analyst Sam Callahan stated in a video interview published by Bitcoin Magazine that Bitcoin does not need the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to succeed; what truly determines its long-term value is fiscal dominance and ongoing currency depreciation, rather than the level of interest rates.Callahan pointed out that, according to the inflation metrics preferred by the Federal Reserve, the dollar has lost at least 20% of its purchasing power over the past five years. He believes that financial repression is already occurring—core PCE averaging 3.7%, and the U.S. bond market is experiencing the steepest pullback in history. He bluntly stated that this policy "works well, but is detrimental to the public."In the interview, he also discussed why the global debt binge makes currency depreciation the easiest way out, the role of the Bank for International Settlements, gold's "monetary protest" and central bank credibility issues, and when central banks will adopt Bitcoin. He listed gold, Bitcoin, and the dollar as the three pillars of reserve assets, believing that all roads ultimately lead to currency depreciation.

The spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, hosted a regular press conference. A reporter from AFP asked whether the U.S. government has requested federal agencies to stop using Chinese artificial intelligence products like DeepSeek, citing concerns about the potential transfer of sensitive data, and inquired about China's comments.Mao Ning stated that China has always opposed the generalization of the concept of national security and the politicization of technological and economic issues, and will firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. Previously, the U.S. government prohibited civilian agencies from using DeepSeek products.

According to four informed sources, the Bank of Japan may raise its inflation outlook for the next fiscal year in the forecasts to be released this month, as rising oil prices are exerting more persistent price pressures on the economy than expected.Sources said that given that the Bank of Japan just raised interest rates last month, it is expected to maintain interest rates at the two-day policy meeting ending on October 30, unless the yen exchange rate falls significantly again, which would raise import costs and overall inflation levels.Sources indicated that the Bank of Japan may continue to emphasize the growing inflation risks in the quarterly report released after the meeting, leaving room for another rate hike as early as December. One of the sources pointed out that the increase in consumer prices may last longer than expected, although underlying inflation has not changed significantly. Two other sources also expressed the same view.

According to CoinGecko data, the top three platforms in the global derivatives exchanges by 24-hour open interest are: Binance ($33.252 billion), Hyperliquid ($14.988 billion), and Gate ($13.276 billion).

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 84.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 15.5%.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury stated that total interest expenditure on debt for fiscal year 2026 reached a record $1.36 trillion, an increase of $144 billion from the previous fiscal year, representing a growth rate of 12%.

The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Waller failed to boost the dollar, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropping 0.4% on Friday, set to record its worst weekly performance since September 4. The dollar weakened against most major currencies, with the euro rising. Waller did not comment on monetary policy at the International Monetary Fund annual meeting, and investors reduced their bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month.

Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December and January, whereas the previous forecast was for a rate hike in December of this year.

According to Jinshi Data, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that Japan's core inflation is close to 2%, marking a policy shift, and the central bank's policy has entered a new phase where inflation cannot be allowed to rise further. Due to core inflation being close to 2% and the financial environment remaining accommodative, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates and adjust its monetary easing policy. The central bank will discuss whether to adjust the assessment of "core inflation close to 2%" at the upcoming meeting.Kazuo Ueda mentioned that the situation in the Middle East, demand for artificial intelligence, and exchange rates will influence the timing of interest rate hikes. The central bank has been monitoring the impact of the weakening yen and the Middle East situation on inflation. He also stated that it is difficult to make a clear statement about Japan's neutral interest rate, and the stability of 2% inflation is becoming increasingly important. The central bank will focus on consolidating the 2% inflation target. Additionally, Ueda noted that the main takeaway from this week's meeting (including the G20) was the communication with other policymakers regarding the impact of the Middle East conflict and demand for artificial intelligence on the global and Japanese economy, and there was nothing heard that deviated from the Bank of Japan's fundamental views. He exchanged opinions with Federal Reserve Chairman Waller but will not disclose specific details; since the meeting in Asheville, he has not contacted U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen.

During the IMF meeting in Bangkok, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh stated that he would not predict the outcomes of the remaining two interest rate meetings this year and was unwilling to disclose potential actions in advance. He said, "This is a new chapter for the Federal Reserve; we no longer do this." Regarding the recent signals from colleagues indicating "no urgency to raise interest rates this month," he neither explicitly supported nor refuted them. Walsh reiterated that the Federal Reserve will achieve price stability and noted that the global economy has largely aligned with central bank expectations since the interest rate hike in September, while describing the recent actions of various central banks as a synchronized tightening of monetary policy in most regions of the world.In September, the Federal Reserve unanimously raised interest rates by 25 basis points, increasing the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4%. At that time, most officials expected at least one more rate hike this year. Despite the core CPI rising by 0.33% month-on-month in September, marking a strong increase for the second consecutive month, and the latest producer price data also being robust, Walsh hardly mentioned this week's inflation report and did not significantly attempt to change market expectations for the October meeting. Reports indicated that during his speech, the dollar weakened, and market bets on an interest rate hike in October dropped from about 30% to around 17%.Additionally, Walsh believes that the U.S. is experiencing significant investment growth and holds an optimistic view on economic resilience and the productivity boost brought by AI, but he warned that the development path will be "very bumpy," and the short-term impact of AI on employment remains unclear. DBS Bank macro strategist Wei Liang Chang stated that Walsh reiterated that artificial intelligence will improve productivity in the medium term, which may help ease inflation expectations and alleviate concerns about the Federal Reserve's consecutive rate hikes. Saxo Markets Chief Investment Strategist Charu Chanana noted that Walsh's refusal to commit to another rate hike led to some bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes falling flat, and related comments did not help the dollar following the release of strong inflation data.

Bai Xue, Deputy Director of Research at Dongfang Jincheng, stated that U.S. inflation rebounded significantly in September, with the CPI rising 3.7% year-on-year and the core CPI rising 2.6% year-on-year. The rebound in inflation has strengthened the necessity for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates this year, with an increased probability of holding steady in October and raising rates by 25 basis points in December.