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Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that the Fed should be prepared to raise interest rates if inflation does not decline.He warned that the inflation rate has remained above target for more than 5 years, and there is a risk of entrenched price pressures. Barr indicated that if upcoming data shows inflation is cooling, policymakers can afford to be patient.In a speech at an event in Washington on Tuesday, Barr said, "If the data trends give me confidence that inflation is easing and moving toward the 2% target, then I think we can take a little more time to assess the policy stance. But if inflation does not appear to be cooling sufficiently, then I think we should take decisive action to raise interest rates."

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang stated that the hawkish remarks made by Powell at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference have shifted the market's focus from whether there will be a rate hike in September to the possibility that the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a longer period before inflation clearly falls back to the 2% target, and even retain the option for further tightening of policies.Lewis Huang pointed out that if subsequent CPI, PCE, and employment data continue to be strong, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and the dollar index may remain strong, putting continued pressure on gold from the dual forces of rising real interest rates and a strengthening dollar, which may also amplify the volatility of high-valuation tech stocks like the Nasdaq 100.Conversely, if inflation significantly cools and the labor market weakens, the market may lower its rate hike expectations, leading to a decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, providing support for gold and growth stocks.He added that besides the Federal Reserve's policy statements, traders should also pay attention to whether the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is influenced by factors such as fiscal deficits, Treasury supply, and rising term premiums.Before and after the release of major data, it is recommended to moderately control leverage and assess market direction based on the interrelationship between the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, gold, and stock indices.

According to CoinDesk, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has reportedly urged Japan to raise interest rates to curb the continuous depreciation of the yen, highlighting how traditional monetary policy is susceptible to government and external factors.In contrast, Bitcoin's monetary policy is pre-set by code, with new coin issuance following a fixed rhythm and halving approximately every four years, providing higher predictability. However, Bitcoin still struggles to escape the impacts of traditional financial markets in the short term.If Japan's interest rate hike leads to a rapid appreciation of the yen, long-accumulated low-interest yen financing trades may be closed out, potentially triggering sell-offs in stocks, bonds, and crypto assets. In August 2024, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike strengthened the yen and put pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.From a technical perspective, the BTC 50-day moving average is currently trending upward and is close to crossing above the 200-day moving average, which may form a "golden cross." However, analysts believe that moving averages have a lagging nature, and the historical predictive effectiveness of the golden cross as an independent indicator is not stable.

CoinDesk reports that XRP has risen about 40% in the past two weeks, from approximately $0.99 to $1.38, but during the same period, the total open interest in XRP futures has decreased by 16% to about 2.34 billion. CoinGlass data shows that all exchanges, except for CME, have reduced their XRP futures positions.CME's XRP futures open interest has increased against the trend by about 36% to 387 million, with its share of the total market open interest rising from about 10% to 17%. CFTC data shows that as of August 25, leveraged funds had a net short position equivalent to about 116 million XRP, more than doubling from the previous week's 57 million; dealers and asset management institutions increased their net long positions by approximately 60 million and 28 million, respectively.This shift in positions occurs ahead of the procedural vote in the Senate on the U.S. CLARITY Act (expected in mid-September). The bill had previously pushed XRP up about 5% when it passed the Senate Banking Committee in May.

This Friday, the United States will release non-farm payroll data, which will serve as an important reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Prior to this, CME's "FedWatch" shows that traders are betting on a probability of over 50% for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice this year.

The total open interest for Bitcoin futures is 695,020 contracts, valued at $54.82 billion, down 0.26% in the past hour, down 0.38% in the past four hours, but still up 1.15% in the past 24 hours. Binance holds 142,500 Bitcoins, valued at $11.24 billion, accounting for 20.5%.In Deribit Bitcoin options open interest, call options hold 288,409.93 Bitcoins, accounting for 60.89%; put options hold 185,234.42 Bitcoins, accounting for 39.11%. In the past 24 hours, the trading volume of put options accounted for 54.49%, with 12,380.77 contracts traded, higher than the 10,339.78 contracts of call options. Data from Deribit, Binance, and OKX shows that the maximum pain point for options on September 25 is close to the range of $70,000 to $73,000. The spot price of Bitcoin is $78,425, and futures positions remain high.

Nick Timiraos, the "Fed Whisperer," stated that Fed Chair Waller has quelled some concerns about his strategy to combat inflation, but has also laid the groundwork for a larger test that may come in three weeks. If the Fed raises interest rates, it could anger the White House just weeks before the midterm elections. If they hold steady, it may reignite the doubts that Waller's remarks have calmed.Two points from Waller's speech on Friday particularly suggest that the Fed may raise rates next month. The first point is that Waller finds it difficult to describe the current financial conditions as restrictive. The second point is that the relatively positive inflation data over the summer has not convinced him that the underlying trend is improving. The Fed's default choice before Friday was to hold steady unless the data was strong enough to warrant action.Former Fed Vice Chair Cohen stated that Waller's remarks have reversed this logic. "He has changed the original assumption; it is now that they will raise rates unless the data shows it is unnecessary." This means that the final decision will depend on changes in the situation before the September meeting, especially the August CPI released on September 11. Cohen stated that if the data indicates that action is unnecessary, the Fed should not raise rates; if the data is strong, it could weaken the argument that inflation is moving back toward the Fed's 2% target.

Bloomberg's chief economist Anna Wong stated that next week's non-farm payroll report may show weakness, with a certain probability of recording negative growth, which will have a critical impact on the Federal Reserve's policy path.She pointed out that if there are two consecutive negative non-farm data, there is no precedent in modern Federal Reserve history for raising interest rates under such circumstances.

U.S. short-term Treasury yields rose. Federal Reserve Chairman Waller emphasized in a highly anticipated speech that the Fed needs to curb rising consumer prices, alleviating some market concerns about its ability to combat inflation.During Waller's speech, short-term U.S. Treasuries were sold off, while long-term Treasuries rose. The yield on the two-year Treasury increased by 5 basis points to 4.28%, while the 30-year yield decreased by 1 basis point to 5.19%. These changes indicate that the market expects the Fed may need to raise short-term rates. Since Waller held his first press conference in June, bond traders have had doubts about his policy stance. At that time, Waller emphasized the need to lower inflation and showed a hawkish stance.Since the global economy reopened from the pandemic in 2021, U.S. inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target. However, in July, the Fed again kept rates unchanged, and Waller did not indicate whether a rate hike might occur this year. Subsequently, long-term Treasury yields surged as traders demanded higher returns to compensate for the risks posed by rising inflation.Waller warned on Friday that inflation has not shown meaningful signs of slowing and stated that policymakers must be confident that inflation is improving; otherwise, the central bank "has work to do." He also reiterated that policymakers will bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target and emphasized that this goal is clear and fixed.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated on Friday that if policymakers cannot be confident that inflation is "declining at a clear and sufficiently rapid pace" back to 2%, the Fed "has work to do." This suggests that if price pressures do not improve, the Fed may raise interest rates next.Waller made it clear that he still adheres to the Fed's long-standing policy path of managing inflation through interest rate adjustments. This significantly increases the likelihood of the Fed's next step being a rate hike, which could create a divergence between him and President Trump, who has long sought rate cuts. This statement essentially eliminated the ambiguity that had been left previously. At the press conference at the end of July, Waller declined to respond extensively to whether a rate hike was needed to address the inflation issue, which has significantly risen this year and has been above the Fed's target for more than five consecutive years.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell, with market pricing indicating an increase in bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike following remarks by Fed Chair Waller.

Glassnode data shows that as BTC rebounds towards $80,000, the options market positions are clearly shifting towards a more positive outlook. The open interest in BTC options has risen back to nearly 550,000 BTC, and participation in the derivatives market is increasing again; the DVOL volatility index has rebounded to about 41, but it is still below the previous high volatility range of 50-60.Glassnode points out that the 25 Delta Skew across different maturities has significantly narrowed, with the short-term skew turning negative, indicating a decrease in demand for downside protection, and positions are leaning more towards a balanced or bullish direction. Currently, BTC is in a dense Gamma range of about $75,000 to $80,000, with recent capital flows concentrated at the $72,500 and $79,250 strike prices, where there has been a noticeable buying of call options, while demand for put options is relatively limited.

Federal Reserve's Harker stated that the Federal Reserve should take action to raise interest rates, as waiting will only bring pain, and does not believe that financial conditions are in a tightening state.

On August 27, U.S. tech and space concept stocks rose slightly after hours, with active trading in Nvidia and SpaceX concept tokens. According to data from the Gate platform, Nvidia (NVDA) is currently priced at $209.95, reaching $219.59 after hours, an increase of 4.59%; SpaceX (SPCX) is currently priced at $139.57, reaching $140.52 after hours, an increase of 0.68%.According to Coinglass data, the open interest for Gate NVDAX contracts is $10.44 million, with a trading volume of $25.18 million, both ranking first among centralized exchanges; the open interest for Gate SPCX contracts is $112 million, ranking second, with a trading volume of $135 million, ranking third.

Bitget has launched a net deposit interest rate increase event, which runs from August 27 to September 10. During the event, VIP users who meet the specified USDT net deposit requirements and subscribe to the corresponding Simple Earn products can enjoy an additional interest rate of up to 7%; all users who meet the specified U net deposit requirements and subscribe to the corresponding Simple Earn products can enjoy an additional interest rate of up to 10%.In addition, from September 3 to September 10, users who meet the average financial holding requirements for the past 7 days and subscribe to the corresponding USDT or U Simple Earn products can enjoy an additional interest rate of up to 7.5%. No manual registration is required for the event; the system will automatically verify participation eligibility. For more details, please refer to the official Bitget platform.

Reto Cueni, Chief Economist of St. Gallen Group, stated in a report that the market may slightly raise expectations for an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September meeting. However, he pointed out that the market still mostly expects that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates, and St. Gallen Group itself currently does not believe there will be a rate hike.Cueni stated, "At present, we still maintain the judgment that the Federal Reserve will not further raise interest rates in the second half of this year." According to LSEG data, the money market currently estimates a 65% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the September meeting.

According to Glassnode analysis, Bitcoin has rebounded about 26% since the mid-August low, with a net inflow of $2.23 billion into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs during the same period, marking the strongest seven-day inflow of the year, with no single day of outflows. The amount of Bitcoin on exchanges has decreased, while various wallet sizes have simultaneously accumulated. The upcoming supply is concentrated in the $81,000 to $86,000 range, which overlaps with hotspot costs, re-listed sell orders, market maker gamma flips, and short liquidations.Glassnode states that this round of increases was ignited by the record short squeeze on August 19, with 85% of liquidations within the squeeze window being shorts, representing the largest single-day short liquidation since 2019 according to their statistical criteria. The open interest in futures has decreased by 11% in terms of coins, and the funding rate is close to neutral, indicating that the market is mainly driven by short stop-losses rather than new long leverage chasing the price up. Options pricing suggests that the market may maintain until late September, with attention on approximately $83,300 above and the $70,000 cost area and $62,000 to $65,000 support below.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, both in line with expectations.Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, stated: "The mild upside surprise in today's inflation data, along with relatively strong economic performance, is not something that investors or the Federal Reserve would welcome. However, this set of data is not sufficient to shift the decision-making balance for the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting."