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CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that due to the ongoing tensions in the Gulf region and Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian refineries, Brent crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. The rise in oil prices is transmitting through the global economy, pushing up production, service, and commodity costs, further permeating inflationary pressures into the economic system, and potentially increasing the risk of economic slowdown, thereby limiting market liquidity, especially for funds flowing into high-risk assets like Bitcoin.Darkfost pointed out that from a long-term trend perspective, when Brent crude oil remains above the annual average and enters a strong upward trend, BTC tends to show slower performance; conversely, when oil prices drop significantly, BTC is more likely to experience a recovery. However, he emphasized that this does not mean there is a simple direct causal relationship between oil prices and BTC; what truly affects risk assets is the macroeconomic environment accompanying high oil prices. In July of this year, oil prices briefly retreated, providing BTC with an opportunity to rise, but Brent crude has since rebounded significantly. Although funds may still rotate between different markets, driving BTC to continue its upward trend, the current macro environment is not conducive to sustained new liquidity flowing into the market.

According to CoinGlass data, BTC is priced at approximately $81,804.8, with a 24-hour increase of 1.21%; ETH is priced at approximately $2,426.43, with a 24-hour increase of 2.91%.In the futures market, the 24-hour trading volume for BTC futures is approximately $68.649 billion, a decrease of 7.69%; the 24-hour trading volume for ETH futures is approximately $45.335 billion, a decrease of 19.73%. Among them, Gate BTC futures have a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $7.47 billion, and ETH futures have a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $6.58 billion, with both major cryptocurrencies' futures trading volumes ranking in the top three globally.

The cryptocurrency research platform Glassnode pointed out in the latest issue of The Week Onchain report that within the 30 days ending on October 5, approximately $4.9 billion of "new funds" flowed into Bitcoin, covering corporate treasury purchases, stablecoin growth, and inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. During the same period, Bitcoin achieved a market capitalization increase of $12.8 billion, more than double the size of the new funds.Glassnode stated that new funds only accounted for less than two-fifths of this increase, with the remainder coming from existing market funds being traded at higher prices. Data shows that since the launch of the spot ETF in January 2024, Bitcoin's upward trends have shown similar differentiation, but the scale of inflows accompanying the rises in 2024 and 2025 is far greater than the current situation. Glassnode noted that before inflows recover, the market will rely on existing holders to pay higher prices.Since September 21, Bitcoin has attempted to break through $87,000 four times without success, and as of the time of writing on Thursday, it was around $83,000, down 1% for the month. Glassnode pointed out that on the first week since January when Bitcoin closed above $85,000, about 86% of the tokens transferred to exchanges came from short-term holders who had held for less than 155 days and were in profit, marking the highest single-day proportion in the past year. CryptoQuant data shows that as of October 7, the overall cost basis for short-term holders is approximately $78,250, still in a net profit state.

Darkfost posted on platform X that Bitcoin is approaching the average cost price of two types of holding groups: investors holding for 18 months to 2 years have an average cost price of about $88,350, while investors holding for 6 to 12 months have an average cost price of about $89,200.Darkfost pointed out that the cost price is the average holding cost of the group, not a natural support or resistance level; as the price approaches this range, the behavior of related investors may change, and this area can be seen as a potential risk zone. The group of investors holding for 6 to 12 months has overall been at a loss for nearly a year, with some investors possibly having bought in at market peaks; some investors may sell after breaking even, while others may continue to buy to lower their holding costs.

According to CoinDesk, after the U.S. August PCE inflation data came in lower than expected, Bitcoin briefly rose above $85,500, but the rally subsequently retreated as U.S. Treasury yields remained high.Dan Khus, Chief Analyst at LVRG Research, stated that the weaker PCE data reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again in October, leading the market to focus more on policy changes in December, which boosted risk appetite in the crypto market.However, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains close to 5.3%, and the 30-year yield briefly reached its highest level since 2002, limiting Bitcoin's further upside potential.In other crypto assets, HYPE rose about 3% to around $89, DOGE increased nearly 2% to around $0.1; ETH, BNB, TRX, and ZEC saw gains of less than 1%, XRP remained flat at $1.5, and SOL fell nearly 1% to around $119.

According to Lianhe Zaobao, U.S. President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This new round of macroeconomic uncertainty is putting pressure on risk assets, and Bitcoin has cooled off after several weeks of rapid gains, with its upward momentum stalling.In addition to geopolitical factors, the market continues to digest the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike measures and is also preparing for another possible rate hike in October. Since August 19, Bitcoin has risen by 28%, and now, Bitcoin is expected to achieve its best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2024.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Department's South Korea stock analyst Chris Cha stated in a report on September 23 that KOSPI has the conditions for a short-term tactical breakout, but the continuous flow of liquidity from South Korean retail investors into the cryptocurrency market will make the index's subsequent upward movement more reliant on foreign capital and local institutions reconfiguring. The report noted that concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rates have been partially digested by the market, and risk appetite has shifted towards proxy AI themes.The report pointed out that South Korean memory chips provide fundamental support, with fourth-quarter DRAM contract prices expected to grow double digits quarter-on-quarter, and the ramp-up of HBM4 capacity will continue to limit the supply of standard server DRAM. Samsung Electronics' large shareholder returns, continuous buying by institutions, and foreign capital turning into net buying may drive KOSPI towards the resistance zone of 7000 to 7200 points.The report also indicated that the capacity of local South Korean retail investors to absorb has weakened. After Bitcoin returned to $85,000, cryptocurrency trading in South Korea has heated up. According to DefiLlama data cited in the report, Upbit's single-day spot trading volume on June 13 was approximately $770 million, which rose to $1.817 billion on September 22, an increase of about 136%. Based on the total trading volume of $3.27 billion on that day across South Korea's five major trading platforms, Upbit alone accounted for over half. Goldman Sachs believes this will make KOSPI more reliant on foreign and institutional buying in the future, and October is a critical window to test whether foreign capital will continue to increase its investment in South Korean semiconductor and AI assets.

According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin network hash rate has rebounded after ending a recent downward trend, indicating that miner activity has somewhat recovered.

According to Gate market data, Meta Platforms surged in pre-market trading after Citigroup placed Meta on its list of upward catalysts to watch for the next 90 days.

CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 stated that Bitcoin is breaking through the bottom and starting a bullish trend. The spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders (LTH) is rising above 1, and the market is shifting from a bearish phase to a neutral one, initiating a comprehensive upward trend.He emphasized that in this cycle, the SOPR has not yet exceeded 6, while historically, cycle tops usually form within this range. This means that long-term holders have not yet experienced a profit-taking phase, and a true bull market rally has not yet occurred. Everything prior has been a preparatory phase for the current upward trend, with LTH holdings at historically high levels and continuing to increase until recently. He believes that the real upward trend is starting now, and the cycle top will appear in the profit-taking range when the SOPR exceeds 6.

CoinShares Research Director James Butterfill stated that Bitcoin is currently facing an "unusual combination"—short-term bearish and medium-term bullish factors are present at the same time.In the short term, the U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, higher than market expectations. Butterfill said, "The CPI data is marginally negative, increasing the probability of monetary policy tightening, which may limit Bitcoin's immediate upside potential." CME FedWatch data showed that market bets on the Federal Reserve's next rate hike reached as high as 85%.In the medium term, he pointed out that the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buyback program has failed to effectively lower long-term yields. If this situation continues, it may force authorities to implement larger intervention measures, raising concerns about currency depreciation, which would instead benefit Bitcoin and gold valuations. CoinShares believes that Bitcoin's short-term upside may be limited to below $80,000.

Goldman Sachs continues to predict that gold prices will reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, and believes there are net upside risks. Goldman Sachs pointed out that if demand from central banks remains strong and ETF investor inflows recover, gold prices could far exceed the forecast. Additionally, if expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes increase, it could lead to a sharp correction in gold prices.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin formed a golden cross earlier this week (the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average), but subsequently did not experience a sustained increase, instead retreating from around $80,000 to about $77,000. It is noteworthy that most of the recent rise occurred before the golden cross—Bitcoin had previously risen from $62,000 to $82,000.The article points out that similar situations have historically repeated multiple times: after the golden cross in 2021, BTC fell from $52,000 to $40,000; after the golden cross in February 2023, it retreated from $23,000 to $20,000; after the golden cross in October 2024, it slid from $70,000 to $67,000; and after the golden cross in May 2025, it corrected from $110,000 to $100,000. Analysts believe that while the golden cross is seen as a long-term bullish signal, it may essentially be a lagging indicator, as a significant portion of the gains often have already been realized by the time the signal appears.

Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of the Liebit Mining Pool, posted on the X platform stating that Bitcoin is still operating within an upward channel, and a pullback is inevitable.If $82,300 is the previous high before the pullback, the pullback will show a "slow and back-and-forth wide fluctuation" trend. He is more optimistic about a rise to $83,000 to $84,000 before pulling back to $72,000.

Tom Lee stated during his appearance on CNBC: "I believe that there are actually very few people who truly hold cryptocurrencies. Because of this, I think Bitcoin can easily break through six figures (like over $100,000), but it may also be affected by interest rate hikes. As for how cryptocurrencies will perform, I think this will be a good test, but we have already seen long-term yields (interest rates) rising. So, if we see the Federal Reserve raising interest rates while long-term yields actually decline, that would essentially mean monetary easing. Therefore, the key may be how long-term yields respond to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes."He also added: "I think this is just the first wave of the rise because this round of cryptocurrency market has caught many people off guard. Well, I believe institutional investors are buying stocks related to cryptocurrencies, and this is very obvious—trading volume has surged significantly, which signals that they are betting on a big market in the fourth quarter. I think $150,000 is still possible, well, it's actually not that far from now."

According to DefiLlama data, since the end of July and the beginning of August, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has regained upward momentum, currently reported at $30.4564 billion, with a growth of 0.48% over the past week.Among the leading stablecoins, USDC and USD1 are the main contributors to the increase in supply over the past week, with USDC increasing by 0.76% and USD1 increasing by 3.71%. The market share of USDT is currently reported at 60.21%.

According to the latest MLCC industry research by TrendForce, South Korean giant Samsung Electro-Mechanics has recently taken the lead in raising prices for OEM and ODM customers for the fourth quarter of 2026, indicating that the MLCC industry has officially entered an upward trend. TrendForce estimates that Samsung Electro-Mechanics will raise the prices of consumer-grade X5R products for OEM and ODM customers by an average of 25% to 30%, in order to suppress order willingness and free up capacity to expand high-end production lines.The high-end X6S products used in AI servers will see an average price increase of 10% to 20% depending on customer negotiations. Japanese manufacturers Murata, TDK, and Kyocera are currently taking a wait-and-see approach, maintaining stable prices, and whether they will follow up with price adjustments will be key to observing whether the upward trend can expand.

XRP has dropped 6.23% in the past 24 hours to around $1.38, making it the token with the largest decline among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Previously, XRP surged from around $1 on August 18 to $1.69, an astonishing increase within four days, briefly touching the psychological level of $1.7.The pullback is mainly due to leveraged liquidations. XRP has still risen 35.55% over the past week, second only to Hyperliquid's 38.65% weekly increase. Notably, XRP-related ETFs have recorded net inflows for nine consecutive days, indicating that institutions have not withdrawn, and the issue mainly lies in the leverage aspect rather than capital outflows.After breaking through $80,000 on Tuesday, Bitcoin has retreated to around $78,000, dragging down the overall altcoin market. The market is awaiting tonight's core PCE inflation data and Nvidia's earnings report; whether XRP can hold the $1.4 support level will determine if this rally is a healthy correction or a further decline.

"Whale" Jason stated, "Set 10 major goals." He indicated that he will look for opportunities to re-enter long positions. He believes that the strength of this trend exceeds previous expectations, and the subsequent space can be further adjusted upwards; even re-entering at $80,000 or higher would not be too late, as BTC still has upward potential.He anticipates that $100,000 is likely to arrive earlier than originally expected, at which point the further height of this trend will be reassessed.