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The annualized volatility of Bitcoin has dropped to 46%, but the number of extreme market conditions this year has already surpassed that of the bear market in 2018

Since the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin has experienced 10 "3 standard deviation" trading days, exceeding the 8 times seen throughout the bear market of 2018. Although Bitcoin's annualized volatility has decreased from 84% in 2018 to about 46%, extreme market conditions still occur frequently relative to recent price volatility levels. "3 standard deviation" is used to measure the extent to which prices deviate from the recent normal volatility range. Data shows that the average price fluctuation for Bitcoin during such extreme conditions this year is about 7%, lower than the approximately 10% seen in 2018.Since 2024, Bitcoin's volatility has been around 47%, similar to Nvidia, but during the same period, Bitcoin has had 26 "3 standard deviation" trading days, far exceeding Nvidia's 8 times, the S&P 500's 16 times, and gold's 12 times. Market participants point out that macro shocks and the leverage and concentrated positions in the derivatives market are important factors contributing to the continued occurrence of extreme volatility. When investors sell options in large quantities, betting on market calmness, sudden news can force related concentrated positions to close, further amplifying price fluctuations.Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers stated that traditional Value at Risk (VaR) models struggle to adequately measure tail risks during extreme market conditions, and investors should pay more attention to risk indicators such as Expected Shortfall. Meanwhile, increased institutional participation, deeper liquidity, and improved risk management are also enhancing the market's ability to withstand shocks, but this does not mean that extreme volatility will disappear.

Analysts rebut the argument that Ethereum's liquidity moat has been breached: ETH still holds value as a reserve asset, with 36% of the supply already staked

Blockworks analyst Jake Koch-Gallup published a rebuttal to the viewpoint that Ethereum is losing its liquidity moat, arguing that despite the challenges to ETH's value capture ability and stablecoin market share, its reserve asset characteristics, Layer 2 ecosystem, and institutional adoption still constitute a long-term competitive advantage.In response to the issue of low on-chain revenue for Ethereum, Jake pointed out that ETH's valuation depends not only on actual economic value (REV) but also includes reserve asset and collateral premiums, with ETH's market capitalization currently about 1,100 times the REV of the past 12 months. Additionally, the development of Layer 2 networks such as Robinhood Chain and Base can still strengthen the Ethereum ecosystem, rather than indicating that funds and applications are completely leaving Ethereum. Jake also noted that Ethereum currently accounts for about 65% of the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi, with approximately 45% of the on-chain managed scale in real-world assets (RWA), while spot ETFs and corporate treasuries collectively hold about 13% of the total ETH supply, and about 36% of the ETH supply is currently staked.Although Ethereum's stablecoin market share has gradually faced dilution pressure from around 51%, Jake believes that as the overall stablecoin market expands, its absolute scale may continue to grow. However, Jake also acknowledged that relying solely on ETH's reserve asset premium, without sufficient revenue and value return mechanisms, raises questions about its valuation sustainability.

first_img CFTC Chairman Selig: The market needs to be ready for large-scale tokenization and 24/7 trading

Michael Selig, the chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that regulators need to prepare for "mass tokenization" and adjust existing markets for new technologies such as blockchain and artificial intelligence. Selig mentioned at the U.S. Treasury Market Conference held by the New York Federal Reserve on Tuesday that developments like tokenization, on-chain finance, and 24/7 trading could lead to changes in the financial markets over the next decade that surpass the sum of the past several decades.Selig noted that the entire Trump administration laid the groundwork for the U.S. market to maintain its global leadership by embracing innovation, encouraging competition, and implementing reasonable regulations. The CFTC will also seek more ways to encourage market participants, exchanges, and clearinghouses to responsibly adopt stablecoins. Over the past year, the agency has issued guidance and sought public input on 24/7 trading in the energy derivatives market; in February of this year, the CFTC included stablecoins issued by National Trust Bank in the list of eligible collateral.Meanwhile, the CFTC's sister agency, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), released the highly anticipated "innovation exemption" last week, creating space for on-chain trading of tokenized stocks. After a bill regulating the cryptocurrency industry stalled in the Senate, the two agencies are advancing their respective agendas.

first_img Peter Schiff stated that the Federal Reserve has already lost the battle against inflation, and the bond market collapsed in 2020

Bitcoin Magazine released a discussion video featuring Peter Schiff, Grace Remington, and Sean Hagan. Schiff stated in the program that the bond market did not just collapse recently, but had already collapsed in 2020, and the subsequent trend is merely a slow unwinding process. He connected topics such as the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, the decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, and central banks around the world buying gold, believing that the Federal Reserve has already lost the war against inflation.Schiff also warned that if rising interest rates trigger a stock market sell-off, it would be deeply bearish for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, while Washington's political capital has shifted to opposing crypto assets. He mentioned that the dollar crisis may be in its early stages and questioned the credibility of the symbolic interest rate hikes that the Federal Reserve might undertake. He also discussed how long the bear market in U.S. Treasuries might last, as well as the combination of fiscal spending cuts and higher interest rates that he believes is truly needed to lower inflation.At the end of the program, Schiff and the host debated whether Bitcoin has actual asset backing, comparing the differences between tokenized gold and Bitcoin in terms of counterparty risk and monetary endorsement. Schiff believes that gold has risen to $5,500 while Bitcoin has retraced 23% from its historical high, suggesting that Bitcoin priced in gold may have peaked in 2021.
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