bearish

Bitcoin has fallen below $65,000, approaching a key short-term support level ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announcement. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on June 18, which is the main catalyst for volatility this week. This FOMC meeting is also the first meeting since Kevin Warsh took office as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, so the post-meeting press conference and interest rate results are equally under scrutiny.Trader Killa stated that the FOMC may set the tone for market trends for the remainder of June. He pointed out that BTC is currently forming a bullish narrative around this event, but the outcome is usually priced in by the market before the press conference. Killa noted that if recent history is any guide, FOMC days typically bring more bearish reactions than bullish ones. Killa warned that BTC needs to maintain a bullish market structure from its current position of around $64,000; otherwise, after this turning point, it is highly likely to retest the $60,000 low.Another trader, Niels, mentioned that the FOMC meeting coincides with the nearing conclusion of the US-Iran peace agreement, and BTC may show some strength in the short term, but it could ultimately fall towards $55,000. However, analyst Cryptic Trades offered a more optimistic view, believing that BTC may continue to rebound after the FOMC. He stated that BTC has encountered resistance near a daily bullish support zone formed by two key moving averages, but after this round of correction, the next significant rise is imminent.

According to Mike McGlone, Chief Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg, Bitcoin has significantly led risk assets in previous upward cycles, and this leading relationship may be reversing in the current phase. In his latest comments, he stated that Bitcoin has previously "driven risk assets upward," but now "may also drive them downward," and believes that based on its comparison chart with the S&P 500 scaled up by 10 times, the overall β assets may enter a downward year in 2026.He emphasized that since 2009, the annual total return of the S&P 500 has only declined in 2018 and 2022, both of which coincided with Bitcoin's downward cycles and corresponded to the U.S. midterm election cycles. He believes the difference in the current market is that structural pressures are accumulating: inflation has re-emerged as a core political issue, while stock market volatility has remained low for an extended period, but risk indicators for commodities like gold and oil have continued to rise. This combination of "low volatility stocks + high-risk commodities" is historically rare.Additionally, McGlone stated that since 2026, both Bitcoin and gold have shown signs of "mean reversion," which may indicate that the risk asset cycle is entering a repricing phase. He pointed out that Bitcoin and gold have retraced about 50% from their 2025 peak (around $126,000), while the total return index for U.S. Treasuries may be forming a phase bottom from a low area not seen since 1983.Currently, the market still lacks key confirmation signals: specifically, the S&P 500 to GDP ratio has fallen from near its highest level since 1928. If this indicator begins to turn, it may signify that a broader risk asset cycle is entering a structural adjustment.

The cryptocurrency market experienced a new round of selling and liquidation on Thursday, with Bitcoin briefly dropping to $61,300 before rebounding to $64,680, currently reporting around $62,500. Over the past two days, the total market leverage liquidation scale was about $3 billion. Data shows that in the past 24 hours, futures trading volume rose to $305 billion, but open interest fell by 8.5% to $111.4 billion, indicating that the market is primarily deleveraging rather than adding new positions.Bitcoin's open interest fell from yesterday's historical high of over 800,000 BTC to 766,000 BTC. Investors seem to be leaving the cryptocurrency market and turning towards AI narratives in traditional markets. The derivatives market has clearly shifted to a bearish stance. The skew of BTC and ETH put options has strengthened, showing that investors are willing to pay higher premiums for downside protection. The nominal open interest of BTC put options with a strike price of $60,000 on Deribit exceeds $1 billion, while the most actively traded options contracts in the past 24 hours were the $55,000 put options.Altcoins have seen deeper declines, with NEAR, ZEC, JUP, DASH, ENA, and FET all dropping over 10%, and HYPE falling 12% after reaching a new high this week. The subsequent performance of altcoins largely depends on whether Bitcoin can hold above $60,000; if it falls below this level, it may trigger more liquidations and put greater pressure on trading pairs with weaker liquidity.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on the X platform that Bitcoin fell 12.5% in the past week, and the proportion of profitable supply has dropped to 55%, which is significantly low. Historically, bear markets have pushed this indicator below 50%, indicating that unrealized losses dominate the market. In February of this year, this indicator reached 53%, and at the current rate, the 50% threshold is about to be breached. Darkfost stated that while this is a bearish signal in the short term, such periods have historically been profit opportunities for long-term investors.

ETH has fallen below $2000 for the first time since March this year. Over the past 7 days, ETH has cumulatively dropped nearly 8%, with a decline of over 5% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, ETH futures open interest (OI) has risen for the third consecutive day, reaching a historic high of 16.39 million ETH, with a nominal value of approximately $3.25 billion. Analysts believe that the continuous rise in OI against the backdrop of falling spot prices indicates that the market is experiencing more aggressive leveraged short-selling behavior.Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated that more and more investors are beginning to abandon ETH, "ETH does not generate cash flow, and in the context of rising U.S. Treasury yields, the attractiveness of staking yields is declining." Additionally, U.S. spot ETH ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of $401 million this month, completely reversing the net inflow of $354 million in April. Market sentiment has also continued to deteriorate due to the departure of core members from the Ethereum Foundation.David Hoffman, co-founder of Bankless, previously stated that he has sold his ETH holdings, believing that the narrative of "ETH as currency" has been fully priced in. The Web3 research institution House of Chimera indicated that the market is questioning the advantages of the Ethereum ecosystem in DeFi, RWA, and tokenization, and whether it can truly reflect back to the ETH token itself.

According to on-chain data analysis platform CryptoQuant (@cryptoquant_com), Bitcoin spot demand has fallen to the most bearish level of the year, and the Bitcoin capital flow ratio has also dropped to a key area that historically marks each major market turning point. Although the short-term trend is bearish, such environments have historically created better positioning opportunities for long-term investors.

10x Research stated that its Bitcoin trend model has turned bearish. It pointed out that the market narrative of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) "never selling Bitcoin" has begun to waver. 10x Research mentioned that Michael Saylor recently hinted that the company might sell part of its holdings of 843,000 BTC in the future, and this change has led to approximately $2.7 billion in outflows from related Bitcoin ETFs.

According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency market analyst Michaël van de Poppe stated that Bitcoin has fallen below the key support range of $75,000 to $76,000. If it cannot recover above $76,600, it will be difficult to support expectations for new highs, and the price may drop to the $60,000 range. He also pointed out that there are several CME Bitcoin futures gaps above, with the highest being above $79,000, and that market pullbacks that occur on Fridays often turn bullish again.

Glassnode stated that the signals from various Bitcoin derivatives markets are diverging, and the overall structure is beginning to weaken. A significant shift in selling pressure has been observed, with the cumulative volume delta (CVD) for spot trading plummeting by 848.7%. Nevertheless, spot trading volume has increased by 4.2%, indicating a rise in trading activity, but this may stem more from trading interest rather than bullish sentiment. Open interest has slightly decreased by 2.9%, reflecting a cautious attitude towards leverage in an uncertain environment. However, the funding rate paid by the long side has surged by 136.6%, showing a rebound in demand for long positions and an increase in bullish sentiment among traders. Yet, the CVD for perpetual contracts has sharply declined by 278.7%, highlighting significant selling pressure and indicating that bearish sentiment still dominates.The 25-Delta Skew for options has risen by 42.75%, as traders seek more downside protection, with the market clearly turning bearish. Meanwhile, open interest and volatility spreads for options have increased by 1.7% and 124.52% respectively, indicating heightened market participation and increased expectations for future price volatility. The MVRV of the US spot ETF has decreased by 6.1%, with net flows for the ETF deteriorating sharply, reflecting a decline in institutional confidence. However, ETF trading volume has risen by 7%. On-chain activity presents a mixed picture: the number of active addresses has decreased, while the adjusted transfer volume has increased, suggesting relatively low network usage, but large amounts of capital continue to move.Overall, as momentum, spot demand, and speculative positions weaken across the board, the Bitcoin market structure is beginning to soften. Options traders are increasingly hedging against downside risks, liquidity and profitability indicators continue to cool, and the market structure remains relatively stable, but stable liquidity and the strength of long-term holders still provide some resilience to the market.

10x Research released a report stating that since the CPI data was announced on May 13, Bitcoin ETF holders have sold over $1 billion, and market sentiment has plummeted from 87% to 45%, while bond yields continue to rise (30-year yield has reached 5.12%). Inflation has become a focal point again, and cryptocurrencies are feeling the pressure.The report points out that Bitcoin is testing the 30-day moving average, and a confirmed drop below it would indicate a deterioration in momentum. Key levels to watch: $79,125 (short-term bull-bear dividing line) and $76,922 (major support level). Ethereum has triggered a bearish signal. 10x Research indicates that the current pattern is one of "two steps forward, one step back," but the cycle bottom is already in sight.

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that in the context of rising inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve may maintain a high interest rate policy for a long time, which will have three core impacts on the cryptocurrency market.He believes that as the U.S. CPI approaches 4%, the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has almost no room for interest rate cuts, and the market currently expects the first rate cut to be delayed until September 2027.Grayscale pointed out that long-term high interest rates will put pressure on "currency depreciation trades" such as Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin, like gold, is a non-yielding asset, higher real interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding dollar-denominated assets. However, it remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects and believes that regulatory benefits such as the CLARITY Act can partially offset the related pressures.In addition, it believes that a high interest rate environment will accelerate the tokenization of fixed income assets. Currently, the yields on dollar-denominated fixed income products are higher than those of most DeFi yields; for example, the USDC lending rate on Aave is about 3.6%, while the yield on short-term corporate bonds is about 4.5%.Grayscale also stated that stablecoin issuers will benefit from high interest rates. Since the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoins from paying interest to users, issuers can retain the income from reserve assets. It estimates that for every 25 basis points increase in short-term rates, Circle's revenue will increase by approximately $190 million.

According to Jinshi News, JPMorgan stated that investor panic is rapidly escalating, and many clients have turned fully bearish on the stock market. Despite the pessimistic market sentiment, JPMorgan's traders still advise clients to remain calm amid market volatility and not to panic.

Analyst Murphy has released a bearish signal analysis for Bitcoin at a small scale. Currently, the CVD of Binance perpetual contracts has rapidly declined from the April high and has fallen below the 90-day median. This indicates that market bulls are unwilling to continue chasing higher prices, and bears are starting to actively sell short. The spot CVD has also begun to "peak and turn down." Historically, when this indicator turns, prices often follow with a correction, similar to November 2024 and April 2025. However, the key difference in the current market compared to the past is that the BTC CVD indicator on Coinbase remains steadily above the 90-day median line.During the same period, the 30-day net purchases of Bitcoin spot ETFs have not shown a significant decrease, and funds in the U.S. market are still supporting it. Analysts state that shorting in the short term remains a high-risk behavior, and bears still need to wait for bearish sentiment to dominate on Binance, as well as for U.S. investors' spot buying to gradually withdraw.

According to 10x Research analysis, since mid-January, the total gamma exposure of Bitcoin has remained negative, currently reaching -3.2 billion dollars at the strike price of 82,000 dollars. In a negative gamma environment, market makers are forced to trade in the direction of the trend, accelerating buying during price increases and accelerating selling during price decreases, which exacerbates price volatility.As the options expiration on May 29 and June 26 approaches, the negative gamma suppression effect is expected to gradually dissipate, and the downward bias of Bitcoin will subsequently ease. Currently, the market demand for call options is significantly higher than for put options, and institutions expect that market sentiment will shift from bearish to bullish at that time.

Glassnode pointed out that after Bitcoin broke through resistance and entered the $82,000-$83,000 range, market volatility has significantly rebounded. Options data shows that the implied volatility (IV) has rebounded sharply from the low in October 2025, with 1-week IV rising by 6 points, indicating a recovery in short-term options demand. The 25D skew continues to compress towards neutrality, with bearish hedge demand weakening.The volatility risk premium (VRP) has turned positive, and the future volatility priced in options is now higher than the realized volatility in the spot market. Additionally, there is a short-term gamma short cluster of nearly $2 billion around the $82,000 mark, and traders' hedging behavior may amplify the current price volatility.In the past 24 hours, selling call options accounted for 81% of trading flow, indicating that some traders are starting to cash in on gains, with overall positions leaning towards consolidation rather than panic hedging.

According to market news, the U.S. PCE inflation data is about to be released, combined with rising international oil prices and climbing U.S. Treasury yields, which continue to suppress the performance of risk assets. Currently, Bitcoin is facing significant resistance around the $80,000 mark, while the derivatives market continues to signal risk aversion.Analysis indicates that the cost basis for short-term holders is concentrated around $80,000. If the price breaks through this level, it may trigger profit-taking selling pressure, thereby limiting further upside potential. In addition, Bitwise researcher Luke Deans pointed out that the current 180-day correlation and Beta quantile of altcoins with Bitcoin are close to 97% and 99%, respectively, indicating that most tokens will still behave as "high-leverage versions of Bitcoin."

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, in the past hour, 0xbac opened a 40x leveraged BTC short position, with a scale of 11.67 million USD, an average price of 77,749 USD, and a liquidation price at 81,286 USD. In addition, this address has also placed a market take-profit order, planning to close the position when BTC drops to the integer level of 70,000 USD.

According to DL News, STS Digital's CEO Maxime Seiler stated that Bitcoin traders are increasingly positioning themselves for a price decline.In a report, he noted that the demand for put options is significantly higher than that for call options, with investors paying a premium for downside protection while selling off bullish bets, reflecting a sense of panic in the market. This bearish signal comes as Bitcoin's trading price hovers slightly above $70,000.Previously, Bitcoin fell nearly 4% over the weekend due to President Trump's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, the U.S. Central Command announced that the Navy would intercept all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports starting at 10 AM Eastern Time, causing oil prices to rebound above $100 per barrel.High oil prices mean rising inflationary pressures, which will be a major focus for global central bank governors at their meeting in late April. The prices of risk assets like Bitcoin are highly dependent on the policies of these institutions, as they determine the money supply in the financial system. The unresolved Middle East conflict will remain a focal point for the market this week.

Economist and cryptocurrency critic Peter Schiff called for selling Bitcoin, while Strategy founder Michael Saylor refuted this.Peter Schiff stated earlier that over the past five years, the price of Bitcoin has only increased by 12%. During the same period, the Nasdaq rose by 57.4%, the S&P 500 rose by 59.4%, gold rose by 163%, and silver rose by 181%. If Bitcoin's appeal lies in its superior long-term performance, why do people still hold onto it?Michael Saylor replied that the time frame is crucial. Since August 2020, Bitcoin has been the best-performing mainstream asset, and the advantage is very clear. If the time span is extended, this gap will only widen.

Santiment indicates that market trends often go against public expectations, "such a high level of FUD sentiment is a positive signal, suggesting that the market is likely to improve in the near future."