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BTC $70,628.14 -3.77%
ETH $1,995.25 -0.10%
BNB $686.39 -1.51%
XRP $1.27 -3.56%
SOL $80.25 -2.02%
TRX $0.3420 -2.62%
DOGE $0.1000 -0.31%
ADA $0.2256 -3.52%
BCH $289.23 -3.34%
LINK $8.94 -1.56%
HYPE $73.94 +0.31%
AAVE $79.28 -3.36%
SUI $0.8646 -2.59%
XLM $0.2305 -12.71%
ZEC $560.16 -0.72%
BTC $70,628.14 -3.77%
ETH $1,995.25 -0.10%
BNB $686.39 -1.51%
XRP $1.27 -3.56%
SOL $80.25 -2.02%
TRX $0.3420 -2.62%
DOGE $0.1000 -0.31%
ADA $0.2256 -3.52%
BCH $289.23 -3.34%
LINK $8.94 -1.56%
HYPE $73.94 +0.31%
AAVE $79.28 -3.36%
SUI $0.8646 -2.59%
XLM $0.2305 -12.71%
ZEC $560.16 -0.72%

dec

Analyst: Bitcoin volatility has decreased by 56% from its quarterly peak, and the market has entered a high compression accumulation phase

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in a recent report that the Bitcoin market has entered a significant volatility compression phase. The realized volatility over the past week (30-day moving average) has dropped from about 39 in early March this year to the current level of around 17, with a quarterly decline of over 56%, approaching historical low levels. Currently, the BTC price remains around $73,500, still below the approximately $79,500 200-day moving average. Historical experience shows that extremely low volatility often indicates that the market is accumulating energy, typically followed by a significant directional trend. However, volatility compression itself does not provide directional signals; it merely indicates that the market is about to make a new trend choice.Meanwhile, the Delta indicator, which reflects changes in market premiums (the difference between market capitalization growth rate and realized market capitalization growth rate), has been in negative territory for six consecutive months, further dropping to about -0.0013 in May. This indicator suggests that the growth rate of Bitcoin's market capitalization continues to lag behind the growth rate of realized market capitalization, indicating a contraction in market risk appetite and valuation premium.The current market exhibits a combination of "low volatility + cooling premiums," which is not a typical overheated bull market structure but rather resembles a consolidation phase after emotional cooling. If BTC subsequently returns above the 200-day moving average, and Delta rebounds to near zero, it will indicate that the market has re-entered a risk appetite expansion cycle; conversely, if volatility releases downward and Delta continues to deteriorate, it may enter a deeper risk-averse phase.In summary, Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market direction remains neutral, but the degree of compression is at a high level, and the probability of significant directional volatility in the future is continuously increasing.

The decoupling of cryptocurrencies from U.S. stocks is intensifying, with the S&P 500 rising for nine consecutive weeks to a new high, while Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to decline on a weekly basis

Driven by optimistic expectations for an extended ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, the U.S. stock and oil markets continued to strengthen this week. The S&P 500 index rose for the ninth consecutive week, setting the longest winning streak since 2023; Brent crude oil stabilized around $92 per barrel. However, the cryptocurrency market failed to follow the rise of macro risk assets. Over the past week, Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $73,445, Ethereum dropped 2.5% to $2,011, Solana decreased by 2.2%, and TRX saw a decline of 5.6%, making it one of the weakest tokens among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Market analysts believe that the cooling inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs is putting pressure on coin prices.In contrast, some small and mid-cap tokens performed remarkably well. Among them, the native token of Hyperliquid, HYPE, surged 19.4% this week to around $65, becoming the biggest highlight in the market. Previously, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) CEO Jeffrey Sprecher referred to Hyperliquid as "a bigger opportunity than Nasdaq" at the Bernstein conference, further boosting market sentiment. Additionally, BNB rose 1.9% this week, XRP increased by 0.7%, and DOGE remained basically flat.On the macro level, U.S. President Trump stated that a final decision on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum is close, but he still insists on Iran abandoning its nuclear program, handing over its enriched uranium stockpile, and opening the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants believe that due to significant differences between the two sides on key issues, the current rebound in risk assets remains relatively fragile, and any negative news regarding the Iran negotiations could trigger a reversal in market sentiment.

Trump said he would make a "final decision" on the Iran issue. American journalists interpreted that Trump hinted at approving the agreement

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. President Trump stated on social media: "Iran must agree that they will never have nuclear weapons or nuclear bombs. The Strait of Hormuz must be opened immediately in both directions, with no tolls, allowing shipping traffic to pass unrestricted. All mines (bombs)------if any------will be cleared (we have previously utilized our excellent underwater mine-sweeping ships to clear a large number of such mines by detonation. Iran will be responsible for immediately clearing and/or detonating any remaining mines------there shouldn't be too many!).Those ships that have been stranded in the strait due to our astonishing and unprecedented naval blockade------given that the blockade has now been lifted------can begin to "set sail for home"! The concentrated materials that are buried deep underground------sometimes referred to as "nuclear dust"------are currently being pressed under a mountain that has nearly collapsed (this is due to the powerful B-2 bomber airstrikes we launched 11 months ago); these materials will be excavated by the United States and will be thoroughly destroyed in close coordination and cooperation with Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency. Until further notice, there will be no financial transactions between the two parties.In addition, the two sides have reached a consensus on other issues that are far less important than the above matters. I am now heading to the "situation room" for a meeting to make the final decision." AXIOS reporters interpret that Trump hinted at an imminent approval of the Iran agreement.
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