q4

Meta Platforms expects Q4 revenue to be between 73 billion and 76 billion dollars, with market expectations at 73.73 billion dollars.

In a report released on Wednesday, JPMorgan analysts estimated that approximately $50 billion has flowed into digital assets this year, with an annualized rate of about $66 billion, up from the annualized level of $52 billion in May, but still about half of last year's pace. The report is led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Analysts estimated the inflow by aggregating data from cryptocurrency fund flows, CME futures implied flows, cryptocurrency venture capital fundraising, and purchases by listed mining companies and corporate treasuries, this time including private company treasuries, private mining companies, and government-related entities in the statistics.Analysts pointed out that the inflow in the first half of the year mainly came from Bitcoin purchases by Strategy and cryptocurrency venture capital financing, while ETF fund flows were a drag at that time, with significant outflows in May and June; since August, ETF fund flows have improved, turning positive for the year, but if calculated from the market correction starting October 10, 2025, the cumulative ETF fund flow is still negative. Institutional positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures at CME have increased over the past two months, with Bitcoin positions surpassing previous peaks and Ethereum positions nearing the October 2025 high. Offshore exchange perpetual contract leverage has fallen from the peak after the correction but remains above historical averages, and trend-following traders, including commodity trading advisors, have begun to rebuild long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.Analysts also stated that Bitcoin mining companies have been net sellers this year, with net sales of about $1.8 billion, mainly from listed mining companies, which have shifted from hoarding coins to selling newly mined tokens, partially reducing their existing holdings to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure expenditures.

ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen published a post questioning the bearish outlook for Bitcoin in Q4, stating that from a technical perspective, the current market trend is favorable for bulls. Currently, the price of BTC is less than 1% away from the May peak, making it difficult to draw conclusions about the future market before entering the fourth quarter.

Renowned trader Bonk Guy stated that MARSCOIN's current trend is "very clean," and a significant rise is expected in the fourth quarter, also noting that its fundamentals are improving.The analyst believes that as BNB and BNB Chain's influence increases in this cycle, the "Musk + CZ" narrative for MARSCOIN is further strengthened. He pointed out that in the last cycle, SHIB and DOGE's market capitalizations respectively surpassed 40 billion and 80 billion dollars, while MARSCOIN this time will combine elements from Musk, Binance founder CZ, and space rocket company SPCX. Additionally, Binance has currently supported the related ecosystem through SPCX rewards and part of its own trading fees, suggesting that the market may be underestimating MARSCOIN's potential performance in the coming months.

The on-chain digital credit protocol Saturn Foundation announced that the STRN token generation event (TGE) is scheduled to take place in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a maximum of 5% of the total reserved token supply for distribution during the second season.If the TGE occurs before December 8, 2026, the second season will end shortly before the TGE and a snapshot will be completed. If the second season ends early, the TGE allocation will be proportionally reduced based on the actual duration of the event, and any unallocated portion will be returned to the Saturn ecosystem allocation for future seasons. For example, if the event completes 75% of the originally scheduled period, only 75% of the reserved allocation will be distributed.After the second season snapshot is completed, the third season will begin immediately; eligible positions can continue to earn second season points until the snapshot, and users do not need to take any action at this time. The specific token economic model, distribution, and claiming arrangements will be disclosed in subsequent announcements.

According to PR Newswire, Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee stated, "We believe that the cryptocurrency bull market has begun, starting at the end of June, driven by multiple factors including funds rotating from AI back to the crypto market, the continued strengthening of the crypto industry's fundamentals surrounding tokenization and AI, and the end of the four-year cycle.With just over a week left in the third quarter of 2026, ETH's performance advantage as a macro asset continues to expand. In our view, ETH significantly outperformed other macro assets in the third quarter of 2026, which may indicate a stronger rally in the fourth quarter of 2026.Due to institutional investors having a low allocation to crypto assets in 2026, partly because of the strong performance of AI stocks at the beginning of 2026, we expect institutions to significantly increase their exposure to crypto assets in the last three months of 2026. This could provide further upside potential for the gains since June 30."

Flop Labs CEO Arthur Hayes announced that the FLOP Network v0.5.0 yellow paper draft has been released, proposing an AI inference measurement and settlement network based on Substrate/FRAME, utilizing the BABE block production and AlephBFT finality mechanism.The project's official roadmap indicates that the FLOP testnet is planned to launch in Q4 2026, with token airdrops through participation in testing, and the mainnet target is set for Q1 2027; currently, the yellow paper remains a draft, and several parameters and mechanisms have yet to be finalized.

Trader Bonk Guy posted that the market trends on Robinhood Chain and BNB Chain over the past few weeks may just be a "warm-up," with similar trends typically appearing at the beginning of a new bull market or before the market truly accelerates. He expects that the real market may begin in the fourth quarter, and the recent gains may only be a small part of the overall trend. Many investors, having experienced a bear market, remain overly defensive and thus miss recent opportunities. The trading habits that protect investors during a bear market may also limit gains in a bull market; the key is to timely recognize whether the market environment has changed and adjust the judgment framework accordingly.He also stated that subsequent market trends will still experience pullbacks, but in a true bull market, pullbacks are often opportunities to increase positions in high-confidence assets. Rather than predicting every fluctuation in the coming days, it is more important to determine the market direction, lay out plans in advance, and allow sufficient time for the investment logic to materialize.

IREN's revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 was $137.2 million, which was basically in line with expectations; adjusted EBITDA was $19.2 million, about 53% lower than expected. AI cloud service revenue increased from $33.6 million to $70.5 million quarter-over-quarter, while Bitcoin mining revenue decreased from $111.2 million to $66.7 million.The company currently operates an ARR of approximately $1 billion, with capacity for 2026 nearly sold out, corresponding to a contracted ARR of about $4 billion, and has signed a multi-year contract with a frontier AI lab. Recently, the three-year contract revenue per IT MW exceeded $20 million, with some negotiation prices around $25 million.IREN plans to increase its cumulative IT capacity from approximately 0.3GW in 2026 to about 0.8GW in 2027; existing cash, committed GPU financing, and customer prepayments total approximately $14 billion.

According to the latest MLCC industry research by TrendForce, South Korean giant Samsung Electro-Mechanics has recently taken the lead in raising prices for OEM and ODM customers for the fourth quarter of 2026, indicating that the MLCC industry has officially entered an upward trend. TrendForce estimates that Samsung Electro-Mechanics will raise the prices of consumer-grade X5R products for OEM and ODM customers by an average of 25% to 30%, in order to suppress order willingness and free up capacity to expand high-end production lines.The high-end X6S products used in AI servers will see an average price increase of 10% to 20% depending on customer negotiations. Japanese manufacturers Murata, TDK, and Kyocera are currently taking a wait-and-see approach, maintaining stable prices, and whether they will follow up with price adjustments will be key to observing whether the upward trend can expand.

According to Ibtimes, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk stated that the company is collaborating with NVIDIA to advance the launch of the first satellites equipped with AI computing capabilities to the fourth quarter of 2027, previously targeted for 2028.Musk mentioned that SpaceX and NVIDIA have designed the Vera Rubin NVL72 system optimized for the space environment, which is planned to be launched into orbit in the fourth quarter of 2027 and will achieve large-scale deployment in 2028. SpaceX will also utilize NVIDIA processors to provide orchestration, code execution, and data processing capabilities for the next generation of Agentic AI.Following the announcement, SpaceX's stock price strengthened, rising about 2.9% during trading to $138.92.Meanwhile, SpaceX is re-advancing its small modular nuclear reactor project, mPower. As the power demand for AI data centers rapidly increases, the company is seeking to provide stable, low-carbon, round-the-clock power through solutions such as small modular nuclear reactors.

Cronos Labs CEO Ryan Wyatt posted that the token economics of CRO need to be re-evaluated. In the coming months, the team has a lot to discuss and plan. In particular, the buyback and burn mechanism corresponding to Cronos App revenue, community burns, and other related arrangements.These topics have been included in the project's Q4 roadmap, and the complete plan will be gradually announced at that time.

Well-known trader CryptoD stated on social media, "Recently looking back at community messages, I found that the entire Meme ecosystem has become very fragmented. The Chinese and foreign markets are gradually forming different ecosystems, leading to ineffective concentration of funds. Additionally, the market has been in a bear phase for a long time, with no significant increase in funds, but rather more chains emerging and liquidity becoming more dispersed.However, I also believe that the overall crypto market is gradually approaching the bottom, and Q3 and Q4 are likely to be the last period to calmly position before the next bull market."Previous reports indicated that CryptoD earned over 10 million dollars by trading the Meme coin TRUMP.

Most institutional investors believe that Bitcoin still has room for further decline, and the overall market sentiment is cautious. Macroeconomic uncertainty, tightening liquidity, ETF fund outflows, and the shift of funds towards areas like AI may still exert pressure on BTC prices. David Grider, a partner at Finality Capital, stated that the firm expects the market bottom in this cycle may not appear until the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2026, and believes that Bitcoin may complete its bottoming process in the range of $45,000 to $55,000. Even among some investors who believe the market is close to the bottom, there is a general expectation of no strong rebound in the short term.Research shows that most funds are currently increasing cash positions, reducing directional risk exposure, and adopting more market-neutral, hedging, and derivative strategies to cope with volatility. Meanwhile, institutional funds continue to focus on fundamentally strong areas such as DeFi, AI, and tokenized assets, rather than purely allocating to Bitcoin. Institutions generally believe that the high interest rate environment, liquidity contraction, geopolitical risks, and the flow of funds towards growth sectors like AI are the main downside risks facing the current market. In addition, some funds have also identified the leverage financing model of Strategy and the development of quantum computing as emerging risk factors in this cycle.Regarding the year-end trend, the funds surveyed did not provide a Bitcoin target price above $100,000. Some institutions expect BTC to fluctuate in the range of $40,000 to $80,000 within the year and believe that improvements in interest rate cut expectations, a recovery in liquidity, and progress on the U.S. CLARITY Act may become important catalysts for market recovery.

The Ministry of Economy and Finance of South Korea announced that it will launch a pilot program for blockchain deposit tokens in Sejong City in the fourth quarter of 2026, to replace traditional government procurement card payments.The project has been approved under the 2026 regulatory sandbox program, allowing institutions to pay business promotion expenses in the form of tokenized deposits. Token payments can preset spending limits and available industry ranges, helping to reduce the need for manual audits and lowering transaction fees for small businesses by removing intermediaries such as card networks.This is the second application of deposit tokens in fiscal operations, following the completion of the first pilot in the electric vehicle charging infrastructure subsidy program. If the pilot proves effective, the Ministry of Finance of South Korea plans to further promote the program.