risk

Analyst Darkfost stated that since September 2025, the inflow of stablecoins from million-level whales on Binance has halved, dropping from approximately $62 billion per month to $33 billion, indicating a significant reduction in the participation of large whales in the cryptocurrency market.When a large amount of stablecoins flows into trading platforms, it usually indicates that the market is regaining interest and is about to be repriced. A decrease in inflow suggests that large capital is exiting the market. Monitoring whales remains one of the best ways to gauge potential market sentiment. Currently, the US-Iran conflict and its ripple effects are still creating a lot of uncertainty, making risk management crucial.

ZeroTier CEO Andrew Gault stated that the potential threat of quantum computing to the Bitcoin industry may not be limited to the security of wallet private keys; encrypted communication and authentication data between institutions also face long-term risks.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that the data still makes me more concerned about inflation risks.

The crypto analysis platform Swissblock stated on platform X that Bitcoin has chosen to revert to a risk-averse mode. This is the defensive shift it had previously warned about. As the risk index accelerates into high-risk territory, the dominance of USDT has risen again, indicating that funds are rotating back to a protective mode. The observed sequence is: risk expansion, Bitcoin losing structural strength, and a rebound in USDT dominance. In this environment, the market prioritizes survival over upside potential.

Despite reports that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have reached a 60-day ceasefire and a draft memorandum for discussions on the nuclear program, the cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, with Bitcoin falling below $73,000, down about 2.7% in 24 hours. The U.S. stock and bond markets were boosted, with the Nasdaq rising 0.6%, while WTI crude oil prices dropped below $90 per barrel.On a macro level, the first inflation report under the new Federal Reserve Chair Warsh shows that the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose to 3.8% year-on-year in April, the highest level in nearly three years, up from 2.8% in February. Olu Sonola, the U.S. economy director at Fitch Ratings, stated that inflationary pressures may persist in the coming months, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to ignore supply shocks that drive potential inflation.Market analysis indicates that in the short term, macroeconomic favorable factors have significantly boosted the stock market and oil prices, but the cryptocurrency market lacks similar direct stimuli, and Bitcoin and other digital assets still face selling pressure.

A recent report from blockchain analysis company Chainalysis points out that compliance standards in the cryptocurrency industry are tightening significantly, with about 47% of organizations entering the market in 2026 having pre-warning standards that can reach the strict levels of the top 10% of the industry in 2020. This indicates that the entire ecosystem is maturing rapidly, with newcomers equipped with more aggressive monitoring measures from the outset.The report shows that companies' "direct monitoring" of funds coming directly from known illegal sources has become consistent and strict, but there is still a significant gap in "indirect monitoring" of funds flowing through intermediary addresses. For example, the indirect risk warning thresholds for categories such as ransomware and fraudulent stores on cryptocurrency trading platforms are often 10 to 100 times higher than direct thresholds. The Chainalysis team points out that this gap between direct and indirect monitoring creates opportunities for illegal actors. Companies that can bridge this gap will not only enhance their regulatory defenses but also distinguish themselves as trustworthy counterparties.The report suggests that this indicates the industry is in a transitional period, having achieved specialization in direct risk management but not yet treating indirect risks with the same rigor. The elevation of industry compliance standards is a response to increasingly stringent regulations and ongoing threats from entities such as North Korean hacker groups. In 2025 alone, hackers linked to North Korea caused approximately $2 billion in cryptocurrency losses.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that energy shocks pose a downside risk to economic growth while posing an upside risk to inflation.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that the Federal Reserve is currently closely monitoring the downside risks in the labor market.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that the labor market is "basically stable," but downside risks are increasing.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that the current risks lean towards higher inflation, and inflation is clearly moving in the wrong direction.

According to a report by The Information, the prediction market Polymarket is facing increased regulatory and compliance pressure, and the platform is pushing traders to undergo identity verification (KYC) to reduce potential legal and compliance risks.The report states that although Polymarket's platform rules do not allow such activities in certain regions, some users are still participating in market trading through automated trading bots and other means, creating gray usage paths in areas like Russia. Some developers are even using tools like Telegram to organize trading traffic and expand the user base. As the platform grows and regulatory scrutiny increases, Polymarket is being forced to seek a balance between decentralized prediction markets and compliance requirements to address potential sanctions and legal risks.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that most of the data released in the U.S. since the dissenting opinion was expressed in April indicates that inflation risks are rising, rather than falling.

According to Jinshi News, former New York Fed President Dudley warned that, given the long-term failure to achieve the 2% inflation target, the Federal Reserve's credibility as an "inflation fighter" is at risk of being lost. He stated that inflation has been above the Fed's target for more than five consecutive years, and there is a risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. This statement highlights the challenges faced by the new Fed Chair Waller.

According to Cointelegraph, the crypto analysis platform Swissblock stated that Bitcoin is sliding into a high-risk environment due to continuous selling by institutions. Its Bitcoin risk index is currently at 33 points, in the high-risk zone. Swissblock pointed out that every time the risk index signals a structural selling pressure overwhelming the market, it is backed by institutions selling off.Glassnode reported that since May 7, the U.S. Bitcoin ETF has recorded net outflows almost every trading day, with continuous institutional selling signals increasing pressure on the supply side for more than two weeks, while demand has not offset this. CoinEx chief analyst Jeff Ko stated that over the past two weeks, more than $2 billion has flowed out of spot ETFs, and institutional risk appetite remains in a marginally sensitive state. News of the U.S. launching new strikes against Iran on Tuesday morning further intensified the risk, causing Bitcoin to drop by 1%, falling from $77,000 to below $76,500.

According to Jinshi reports, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel stated that the latest data indicates an upward risk for inflation, while economic growth faces a downward risk.

The latest report from the blockchain analysis platform Swissblock shows that Bitcoin is gradually slipping into a high-risk environment, primarily due to continuous selling by institutional funds, especially driven by net outflows from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF. Historical data indicates that whenever this index signals selling pressure overwhelming the market at a structural level, it often corresponds to systematic distribution behavior by institutional funds.On-chain data analysis firm Glassnode also pointed out that since May 7, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has shown net outflows almost every trading day, with institutional selling signals persisting for over two weeks. "Such continuous capital outflows are exerting pressure on the supply side of the market, while currently, there has not been sufficient buying demand to hedge against this," further exacerbating the risk of supply-demand imbalance.In the market, Bitcoin faced short-term pressure on Tuesday due to geopolitical disturbances. Reports indicated that the U.S. is implementing a new round of military strikes against Iran, despite recent progress on a peace agreement between the two sides. Bitcoin's price fell by about 1%, briefly dipping from above $77,000 to around $76,500, but overall it still maintained a range-bound pattern for nearly four months.CoinEx Chief Analyst Jeff Ko stated that although geopolitical events may trigger short-term volatility, the market focus may still lean towards potential reconciliation progress between the U.S. and Iran, with the overall cryptocurrency market "still in a wait-and-see state." In summary, the current Bitcoin market faces dual pressures: on one hand, the continuous outflow of spot ETF funds has weakened key buying support; on the other hand, geopolitical uncertainty has amplified short-term volatility risks. If institutional risk appetite does not improve marginally, the risk index may rise further, necessitating caution against the adjustment pressure brought by technical selling and emotional resonance.

The Wall Street Journal published an article pointing out that although the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act are promoting the compliance of stablecoins, the essence of stablecoins still belongs to "private currency," which may pose structural risks to the financial system.The article notes that stablecoins aim to combine the stability of the US dollar with the efficiency of blockchain payments, but because they operate on fragmented, privatized infrastructure, they do not possess the unity of the traditional US dollar system. Although USDT and USDC are pegged to the dollar, their prices may still deviate from 1 dollar.In addition, there is an incentive for stablecoin issuers to enhance returns by allocating high-risk, low-liquidity assets. If the value of these related assets declines, it could trigger de-pegging and concentrated redemption risks. The article cites Chainalysis data stating that stablecoins account for 84% of illegal activities in cryptocurrency, mainly involving sanctions evasion and money laundering, while real economic payment scenarios account for less than 1%.The Wall Street Journal believes that stablecoins are replaying the path of private currency experiments from the "Free Banking Era" in 19th century America, and in the future, they may need to accept stricter regulation like banks and integrate more deeply into the central bank system.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore is collaborating with private banks to adopt a "risk-based" approach to shorten the account opening time. The head of the Monetary Authority of Singapore stated that the authority aims to reduce the account opening time to within one month, while the current median account opening time for complex cases is about six weeks or longer.He stated that this move is intended to ensure that banks maintain high standards while avoiding unnecessary and excessive scrutiny of the sources of clients' wealth.