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The overall profitability status of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data shows that it is still insufficient to confirm that a new bull market has begun, and there remains a risk of another decline. CryptoQuant data shows that the Bitcoin Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%. This indicator represents the proportion of BTC supply in the current market where the price is above the holding cost, which has significantly rebounded from the low of 46.2% on June 30, 2026, and is currently close to 60%.However, the recovery of the profitable supply ratio still requires continuous verification. Historical cycles show that the true end of a bear market usually requires two conditions to be met simultaneously: first, the 30-day simple moving average of the Long-Term Holder Profit and Loss Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must remain above 1 for an extended period without falling below it; second, the Bitcoin Supply in Profit must stabilize above 64%. Analysts indicate that this cycle has previously experienced a "false breakout." From April 28 to June 1 of this year, the average LTH-SOPR was above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the profitable supply ratio once rose to 67%, but the market subsequently declined again. Currently, the Long-Term Holder 30-day SMA indicator has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, which remains an important risk signal for assessing the strength of market recovery. Although the BTC profitable supply ratio is improving, the market needs further confirmation of the behavior of long-term holders and changes in the profit structure to determine whether the current rebound truly marks the beginning of a new upward cycle.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan published an analysis, stating that the crypto market is showing signs of a bottom ------ since July 1, Bitcoin has risen by 9% while the Nasdaq has fallen by 6%, ETF fund flows have turned positive, and market sentiment has improved. Hougan believes that the next bull market will be driven by the integration of on-chain finance and traditional finance, with the core sectors being stablecoins, tokenization, 24/7 trading, instant settlement, and institutional DeFi.He suggests focusing on two types of opportunities: one type is crypto-native applications represented by Hyperliquid (HYPE) ------ which have real revenue and a strong token economic model (99% of revenue is used for buybacks and burns of HYPE), which has risen 146% this year; the other type is traditional financial institutions represented by Robinhood (HOOD) ------ whose Layer2 blockchain Robinhood Chain attracted over $300 million in deposits within two weeks of launch, processing an average of 3.6 million transactions daily, supporting 24/7 trading of tokenized stocks for users in 120 countries. Hougan is optimistic about mainstream assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, as well as crypto stocks, while also paying attention to institutions like Coinbase, Figure, BlackRock, Visa, Stripe, and JPMorgan that are scaling up in the crypto space.

According to BIT analysis, as the demand for call options accelerates, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has both rebounded, indicating that the quiet trading environment of summer may be nearing its end. Recently, there have been several large transactions of call options in the market.Meanwhile, after Bitcoin's implied volatility fell from 44% to 31%, it has now rebounded to 36%, further reflecting that market bullish sentiment is warming up. Although August and September are typically seasonally weak months, the rebound in call option demand and implied volatility is still expected to provide some support for Bitcoin prices. At the beginning of summer, BIT tended to short volatility, anticipating that the market would enter a consolidation phase. However, as option positions and overall market sentiment have both become more positive, BIT adjusted this judgment last week.

Social Capital founder Chamath Palihapitiya stated on the X platform that the current cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin bulls, is facing two major issues: first, marginal liquidity is more inclined to flow into prediction markets and stock markets; second, the marginal energy used for Bitcoin mining, if reallocated to serve AI token-related demands, could be valued 10 to 20 times higher. Chamath noted that these changes appear to be structural, but there is also a possibility of misjudgment.In response, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said that the first point "seems more like a temporary phenomenon," while the second point may be more enduring. However, the computing power or energy flow used for Bitcoin mining does not directly determine Bitcoin prices, as the network difficulty will automatically adjust to maintain the same block production pace when miners exit. He also stated that, in the long run, Bitcoin prices reflect more of people's concerns about inflation, and there are no signs that the trend of democratic governments around the world continuing to expand fiscal deficits is coming to an end.

Vitalik posted on the X platform stating that he has developed a toy demonstration version of the idea of a "censored anonymous bulletin board" on Aztec. This idea comes from his previous article on using SNARKs, and it is still in the early stages, but it can already achieve interesting and non-trivial functionalities.

ForeGate, in collaboration with partners such as OneBullEx, OKX, WEEX, Interlace, HTX Live, and Billion Live, is currently hosting the "Final Battle 48 Hours · Predictions Never Stop" special event for the World Cup.The total prize pool for the event is as high as 8 million USDT, with benefits including goal airdrops, penalty shootout doubles, late-night subsidies, and lotteries. Among them, OneBullEx will provide a 100 USDT experience bonus and whitelist rewards for the OneBullEx Card, further enriching user participation rights.The event revolves around "AI vs Mysticism vs Human Judgment," covering the third-place match and the finals of the World Cup. ForeGate AI will provide match result judgments, championship probabilities, and post-match hit reviews, while entertainment predictions such as Tarot, astrology, Bazi, and I Ching will also participate, bringing users a richer event interaction experience. Users can participate through the event prediction market, live interactions, red envelope rains, and lucky bags.On the evening of July 20, partners will also hold a wrap-up review through X Space to discuss the final performance of different prediction methods and announce the lottery results. This event also extends to the EWC esports prediction scene, connecting sports and esports prediction markets through AI predictions, event interactions, and multi-platform collaboration.

Researcher Adam from Greeks.live stated that the trading of large Bitcoin call options has significantly increased, with a total of 25,766 BTC call options traded, with a nominal value of approximately $1.65 billion. Among them, nearly 10,000 sets of the 70,000/72,000 USD call bull spread expiring at the end of this month have been traded, making it the most active contract.Adam noted that with about two weeks left until expiration at the end of this month, the large-scale purchases of out-of-the-money call options that are about 10% higher than the current price reflect the market's optimistic expectations for the market trend in late this month; however, the trading strategy of using the lower-cost bull spread also indicates that the funds are primarily taking a tentative approach rather than making aggressive bets.

According to official news, OneBullEx has launched U-based stock and index-related contracts such as QQQUSDT, NVDAUSDT, TSLAUSDT, AAPLUSDT, MUUSDT, WDCUSDT, and SPCXUSDT. The related products support both full margin and isolated margin models.This round of new products covers multiple key tracks in the global innovation industry. QQQ provides an overall perspective on large technology and growth sectors, with Nvidia, Micron Technology, and Western Digital corresponding to AI computing power, memory, and data storage infrastructure. Apple and Tesla cover smart terminals, automation, and energy technology, while the addition of SPCXUSDT extends the platform's global asset coverage to commercial aerospace, satellite connectivity, and space infrastructure.This new launch allows OneBullEx to increase its offerings of global technology companies and index-related products beyond cryptocurrency assets. OneBullEx stated that it will continue to expand global asset coverage around the development direction of AI-native financial exchanges and explore the long-term application of AI intelligent trading capabilities in more asset and market scenarios.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin market sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish and has maintained this for the second week. A model that integrates multiple market data points shows that the Bitcoin status score has rebounded from a low of -42.9 on June 26 to +34.7. Over the past week, this score has remained in positive territory for more than 80% of the time, reaching a peak of +65.3 on July 10, indicating that the overall market sentiment has shifted from seller-dominated to buyer-strong.Currently, 79.4% of the multiple sub-indicators included in the model point in the same direction, significantly higher than this month's average of 57.3%, suggesting that there are no obvious contradictions among the data, and the current bullish signal is not noise. Moving forward, if the market sentiment score further rises above +50 and the consistency remains above 80%, the bullish trend will be further confirmed; if the score continues to fall below zero and consistency drops below 40%, the current trend will be considered invalid.

Multicoin Capital Managing Partner Tushar Jain shared in detail his valuation logic and investment framework for HYPE during the "When Shift Happens" podcast. He believes that HYPE is currently severely undervalued, with a benchmark valuation of $319, and recommends a pragmatic accumulation strategy to cope with volatility.Tushar candidly stated that trying to precisely time the market is nearly impossible. The recommended framework is: the first third: buy immediately (enter the market right away); the second third: invest according to a fixed schedule (for example, in batches over 1-2 months); the third third: increase positions opportunistically when prices dip. This method can significantly reduce psychological burden while achieving a good average cost when optimistic about the long-term prospects of the asset.Tushar's valuation model is based on four relatively conservative assumptions: the trading volume of crypto derivatives will maintain a 35% annual compound growth rate over the next two years; the DeFi derivatives market share will increase to 32%; the USDC collateral balance will grow in sync with trading volume; and the "false prosperity" currently created by some projects relying on subsidies will disappear after the subsidies are withdrawn, leading to an increase in Hyperliquid's true market share. Even with these conservative assumptions, HYPE's current price still has significant upside potential, possibly exceeding $600 in some optimistic scenarios.Tushar believes that Hyperliquid is far more than just a rapidly growing perpetual contract platform; it is expected to become a core part of crypto financial infrastructure.

The contract whale "Set 10 big goals first" recently shared three trades on social media: On June 25, opened a long position on BTC at $59,837.99 and closed it at $58,592.06, ultimately losing $4.88 million; on July 6, opened a long position on BTC at $62,590.4 and closed it at $64,022.01, ultimately gaining $4.54 million; on July 13, opened a long position on BTC at $63,064.4 and closed it at $64,287.08, ultimately gaining $4.27 million.

According to Jinshi, the global fund manager survey by Bank of America shows that fund managers' bullish sentiment towards the US stock market has reached its highest level since December 2024. A net 24% of respondents believe that US stocks will outperform other regions, marking the third highest allocation weight for US stocks in the past five years.In contrast, investors have reduced their allocation to UK stocks, with confidence dropping to its lowest point since August 2020.

According to Finance Magnates, Webull EU has obtained a MiCA license issued by the Dutch regulatory authority. This is also one of the first significant approvals of cryptocurrency licenses in the market after the transition period ended on July 1. Webull plans to use this license to launch cryptocurrency trading and custody services in Europe by the end of 2026.Webull Securities (Europe) CEO Andries van Luijk stated that this move is an important milestone in the company's expansion in the European market, and Webull will provide users with "secure and compliant digital asset services" under the EU's unified regulatory framework. According to reports, after the implementation of MiCA, the number of licensed cryptocurrency institutions in Europe is now close to 200.

Strive's Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy Joe Burnett stated that there are currently three types of investment views on Bitcoin in the market: first, the bulls, who believe that Bitcoin's long-term annualized return rate is higher than the cost of financing, and therefore are willing to borrow long-term capital to increase their Bitcoin holdings; second, the neutral investors, who view Bitcoin as a "Digital Credit" asset, only needing to believe that Bitcoin will not disappear and can generally follow the growth of USD inflation over the long term to meet their return needs.For example, according to Michael Saylor, if Bitcoin grows at an average annual rate of 3.3%, it can sustainably rely on capital gains to pay current dividends; third, the bears, who can express their views by shorting Bitcoin or leveraging Bitcoin products. Burnett believes that as bulls, neutrals, and bears all have corresponding Bitcoin investment tools, more capital is expected to enter the Bitcoin market.

According to a report by Caixin on July 7, SpaceX has won preliminary support from Wall Street, with global brokerages beginning to rate this rocket and AI company owned by Musk, forming a clear consensus: buy the stock.At least six brokerages, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, have started rating the stock, giving it a rating equivalent to buy, and agreeing with SpaceX's long-term growth narrative, although questions surrounding the company's profitability, execution, and valuation remain. Among them, Morgan Stanley set a target price of $300, one of the highest target prices on Wall Street, indicating an 87% upside from Monday's closing price of $160.42.Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX's stock price to be $75 in a bear market scenario and $600 in a bull market scenario, with revenues potentially reaching $319 billion by 2030 and $33 trillion by 2040.